Tag Archives: inflation

“Unretirement” — more than one in four near-retirees plan to work in Retirement to make ends meet

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published. You can find it by clicking on the highlighted text here: Why “unretirement” may be the fate of so many Canadians.

Even before the Tariffs threats emerged under Trump 2.0, Canadian seniors were starting to find the economic uncertainty and rising living costs to be unmanageable. No surprise then that many seniors approaching Retirement Age are delaying their exit from the workforce.

According to a report by HealthCare of Ontario Pension Plan, 28% of unretired Canadians aged 55-64 say they expect to continue working in retirement to support themselves financially.  Here’s a screenshot from the HOOPP survey:

 

The Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) commissioned Abacus Data to conduct its sixth annual Canadian Retirement Survey in the spring of 2024.  The latest survey finds “persistent high interest rates and a rising cost of living continue to have a significant negative impact on Canadians’ ability to save and manage the cost of daily life, threatening their retirement preparedness.” While all Canadians are struggling, “women and those closest to retirement are especially hard hit with lower savings and higher levels of financial stress.”

While most Canadians are struggling to save amidst a high cost of living, HOOPP finds women are particularly affected. Half (49%) of all Canadian women have less than $5,000 in savings and almost a third (28%) have no savings (compared to 33% and 17% of men, respectively), similar to the 2023 results

 

The MoneySense column also looks at more recent Retirement surveys that also reveal anxiety about rising costs of living. One is from Bloom Finance Co. Ltd., conducted by founder Ben McCabe after Trump’s Tariffs started to kick in this year.

A Bloom study conducted with Angus Reid found 46% of Canadians thinking of working part-time in Retirement. That’s in line with a Fidelity survey in 2024 that found half of Canadians plan to delay Retirement. According to the Bloom Report [in March 2024], 67% of Canadian homeowners over 55 were concerned their savings would not sustain their quality of life through retirement. Only 29% considered downsizing or alternative living situations to access their home equity earlier than expected. 59% of the same cohort agreed accessing micro-amounts of their home’s equity would help maintain their desired living standard. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Tax Brackets, Income Thresholds, Inflation Factors & other things retirees need to consider going into 2025

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a variety of tax and savings limits changes that are effective early in 2025. Click on the highlighted headline for the full column: What retirees need to know about tax brackets for 2025.

As the column notes, at or near Retirement taxes and inflation are the two big threats to preserving enough wealth to last a lifetime.  The tax burden hits home with the annual tax-filing deadline in April, but the time to start thinking about the yearly ordeal is before year-end.

The complexity of this task is compounded by almost-annual changes to tax brackets, the Basic Personal Amount, OAS thresholds, inflation adjustments and much more. For starters, I recommend reading an excellent article by CIBC Wealth’s tax guru, Jamie Golombek, which appeared in the Financial Post here on Nov. 23rd, shortly after the Canada Revenue Agency released its new tax numbers for the year 2025.

 Let’s look first at inflation, the second serious scourge retirees face if they live long enough. Here, a useful tool suggested by certified financial planner Morgan Ulmer is Statistics Canada’s Personal Inflation Calculator, which lets you compare your personal inflation rate to the general CPI.

Ulmer, of Toronto-based Caring for Clients, sees the higher tax brackets and inflation adjustments as an “opportunity for retirees to build a savings reserve.” CPP is indexed to inflation yearly while OAS is indexed quarterly.  So “if a retiree is able to increase their spending at a rate that is less than CPI, the difference could be saved as an emergency reserve or invested in a TFSA.”

 Inflation and Tax Bracket changes

 Back to some key data cited by Jamie Golombek.  The inflation rate used to index 2025 tax brackets and amounts will be 2.7%: just over half the 4.7% in effect in 2024.  The good news is that the Basic Personal Amount (BPA) on which no federal tax is levied rises to $16,129 in 2025: It was $15,000 in 2023.

All five federal income tax brackets are indexed to that 2.7% inflation rate. In 2025, the bottom federal tax bracket of 15% will apply to incomes between zero and $57,375. The second lowest bracket of 20.5% will apply to incomes between $57,375 and $114,750. The 26% bracket applies to income between $114,750 and $177,882, while incomes between $177,882 and $253,414 will attract a 29% federal tax. After that the federal rate will kick in at 33%.

Below is a table summarizing that information prepared for MoneySense:

MoneySense.ca

 Don’t forget there will be additional provincial taxes on top of the federal haul, also indexed to inflation at various provincial rates.

 What is relevant for those in the Retirement zone is the higher threshold on Old Age Security: in 2025, according to Canada.ca, OAS begins to get clawed back for taxable income of $90,997.  OAS benefits disappear entirely at $148,451 for those aged 65-74 in 2025, and at $154,196 for those 75 or over. Note the OAS clawback is based on individual incomes, not household income.

Deferring CPP and OAS till 70

 Matthew Ardrey, portfolio manager and Senior Financial Planner for Toronto-based TriDelta Financial, agrees that tax brackets, whether federal or provincial, “become more of a consideration in retirement.” For many Canadians receiving employment income on a T-4, there is little we can do as retirees to keep income in the lower tax brackets. But there’s plenty to think about when considering tax minimization and decumulation strategies. Referring to Golombek’s article, Ardrey says that using federal brackets only, taxpayers can receive $57,375 of income and pay very low rates of taxation, especially when the $16,129 basic personal amount is considered.”

Retirees under age 70 can defer CPP and OAS until 70 and try to live on withdrawals from their registered plans instead. With no other income, taxpayers could have almost $50,000 of after-tax income, or $100,000 for tax-paying couples. Continue Reading…

Franklin Templeton 2025-2035 Outlook: Stocks will beat bonds, EAFE/EM may edge out North American stocks

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Stocks are expected to outperform bonds over the next 10 years but EAFE and Emerging Markets will probably do a little better than U.S. and Canadian equities, portfolio managers for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions told advisors and the media in its 2025 Outlook session held Thursday in Toronto. The twice-annual economic outlook marks the 70th year that Franklin Templeton has operated in Canada: Sir John Templeton’s famous Templeton Growth Fund was launched in Canada in 1954. It has been in the U.S. more than 75 years.

Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager Ian Riach [pictured left] said in a presentation distributed to attendees that “expected returns for fixed income have become slightly less attractive as yields have moved lower over the past year. EAFE and Emerging market equities [are] expected to outperform U.S and Canadian equities.” The most likely path to stable returns will be through “a diversified and dynamic approach,” he said.

Shorter-term Macro themes

Addressing major shorter-term themes, Riach said the United States continues to lead in Growth, while Canada is improving and the rest of the world is “challenged.” Inflation continues to trend down but some areas are faster than others. Fiscal policy “remains supportive” while “central banks remain data dependent.”

Addressing Canadian economic growth, Riach said Canada’s  inflation backdrop “continues to surprise to the downside” and is now at target levels as leading indicators continue to improve from weak levels. Thus far, Canadians holding mortgages have not yet been impacted by higher interest rates, based on the cumulative share of mortgages outstanding in February 2022 that have been subject to a payment increase.

Economic Growth in Europe and Asia. 

European sentiment is improving but remains at weak levels while Asian manufacturing “has started to fall,” he said. Economic growth in China remains weak: “Consumer sentiment has yet to recover from deteriorating property sector and labor market imbalances.”

Addressing Emerging Markets ex China, Riach said weakening leading manufacturing indicators will “challenge upside potential of cyclical regions broadly.”

In the United States, AI-related stocks (Artificial Intelligence) continue to power U.S. earnings growth expectations. However, Riach said, “this has been broadening to the ‘forgotten 493’ somewhat.” (i.e. away from the Mag 7.)

 

Inflation much improved

Worldwide, inflation is much improved and is now below Central Bank targets, Riach said.

 

Asset Allocation

Moving to recommended portfolio positioning, Franklin Templeton is overweight equities, underweight bonds and neutral on Cash. Within stocks, it is overweight Canadian and U.S. equities, Underweight EAFE (Europe Australasia and Far East) and Neutral on Emerging Markets.

The second major presentation was delivered by Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy for Franklin Templeton’s ClearBridge Investments. Schulze [pictured on right] is known for his “Anatomy of a Recession” analytical work, which assesses 12 variables that historically foreshadow recession.

However, as the chart below shows, the recession dashboard is currently signalling expansion rather than recession:

 

Addressing employment, Schulze said that while the pace of job creation has slowed substantially over the past few years, “it has settled in line with the pace experienced during the previous economic expansion.” As a result, U.S. consumer spending is robust.
Continue Reading…

Essential Budgeting Tips for Financial Independence

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Image courtesy Shutterstock

By Matt Casadona, 365 Business Tips

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Financial Independence is the goal of everyone with a bank account, and budgeting plays a main role in achieving that.

It can be difficult to understand where to start or how to get yourself back on track.

With these valuable pieces of insight from leading industry experts, you can start your own Fnancial Independence journey. 

Pay yourself first

“One essential budgeting tip for achieving financial independence is to adopt a ‘pay yourself first’ approach. This means prioritizing savings and investments by setting aside a certain portion of your income as soon as you receive it, before using it for bills, expenses, or discretionary spending. By automating savings and investments into accounts like emergency funds, retirement accounts, or other investment accounts, you’re prioritizing your financial goals and building a habit of consistently contributing toward them. Over time, this proactive approach allows your savings to grow, helps you avoid lifestyle inflation, and keeps you focused on long-term financial stability rather than short-term gratification.” – Bill Lyons, CEO of Griffin Funding

Financial independence wildly relies on smart budgeting and disciplined financial practices. One powerful strategy is to leverage your tax return, which is often a lump sum. Consider depositing your tax return directly into a separate savings account from your tax software. This strategic move creates somewhat of a safety net. This disciplined approach not only safeguards your funds but also provides a foundation for future investments or emergency expenses. Over time, this habit can contribute significantly to your financial independence.

Minimize Debt

“Minimizing your debt can help achieve financial independence, as it reduces financial burdens and frees up resources for other financial goals. When you prioritize the repayment of high-interest debts, such as credit-card debt or personal loans, individuals can save significant amounts of money on interest payments over time. This disciplined approach to debt reduction can also improve credit scores, making it easier to qualify for private financing options when purchasing a home or commercial property. Minimizing debt, individuals can strengthen their financial position and increase their chances of securing favorable terms and rates for private financing, ultimately helping them achieve their real estate ownership goals.” – Sacha Ferrandi Founder & Principal, Source Capital

“A practical budgeting method divides income into three categories: 50% for needs, 30% for wants, and 20% for savings or debt repayment. This system assists individuals in efficiently allocating their funds, ensuring they cover essential expenses such as housing, groceries, and utilities, while also setting aside money for financial goals. Wants to include discretionary spending such as entertainment and dining out. The remaining portion goes towards savings or paying off debts, contributing to long-term financial security. This budgeting approach offers a simple framework for managing finances, preventing overspending on non-essentials while prioritizing savings. It’s adaptable to different income levels, making it a balanced way to manage money.”– California Credit Union

Plan for irregular expenses

“Planning for irregular expenses is a wise budgeting strategy that can contribute to financial independence. By anticipating and setting aside funds for irregular expenses, individuals can avoid financial stress when unexpected costs arise. One effective way to allocate funds for irregular expenses is by saving a portion of your tax refund return instead of immediately spending it on unnecessary items. Exercising discipline and directing your tax refund towards an emergency fund or a dedicated savings account, you can build a financial cushion that provides peace of mind and protects you from unexpected financial setbacks. This proactive approach to budgeting ensures that you are prepared for unexpected irregular expenses and helps you maintain control over your financial well-being.”– Lisa Green-Lewis Tax Expert, Turbo Tax Continue Reading…

How a Fed Rate Cut could bolster Canada’s largest Covered Call Bond ETFs

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By Ambrose O’Callaghan, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Blog) 

In late August, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell caused a stir among the investing community when he provided the strongest signal yet that the U.S. central bank is gearing up for interest rate cuts starting in September.

At the time of this writing, we are just one day away from that crucial decision. So what will this mean for  the yield curve, the direction of the Fed, how the change in policy is affecting markets, and the implications for Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (HPYT:TSX) and the Harvest Premium Yield 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (HPYM:TSX) in the final third of 2024. Let’s explore!

How does the yield curve function?

The yield curve, which is a representation of different bond yields across various maturities, can take varying shapes and curvatures. However, the most talked about is the shape of the yield curve in particularly one that’s either normal or inverted. A normal yield curve will have short-term bond yields that are lower than long-term bond yields. This encapsulates the time and risk premium associated with investing further into the future. However, in a period wherein central banks are seeking to slow economic growth/inflation, near-term rates will be raised in a manner that leads to higher short-term yields versus long-term yields. This is called an inverted yield curve, a much rarer occurrence.

Source:  Bloomberg, Harvest Portfolios Group Inc., September 12, 2024

In practice, the difference between the 10-year yield versus the 2-year yield of government bonds is the go-to measure or gauge. The yield curve has been inverted for some time and became dis-inverted (Normal) in August 2024. That is a sign that shorter-term rates are coming down. This likely precedes meaningful interest rate cuts.

Source:  Bloomberg, Harvest Portfolios Group Inc., September 12, 2024

What drives the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate: to achieve maximum employment, and to keep prices stable. Despite taking on one of its most aggressive interest rate hiking cycles in history to regain price stability, inflation has failed to return to the target of 2%, albeit subsiding in recent months. The lower levels of inflation come with slowing economic data and weaker-than-expected jobs data, which belies the Fed’s goal of achieving maximum employment. So, what’s next?

With inflation coming down, the Fed members seem ready to cut short-term rates to alleviate the negative impact of higher interest rates on the economy. But before we get excited, it’s worth noting that the Central bank tools traditionally take time to filter through to the economy. Interest rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on the economy and broader markets but will filter over time.

Ultimately, this shift in policy should return the inverted yield curve to a normal yield curve.

Rate expectations: What is already priced in?

The next Fed rate announcement meeting is on September 18, and the market is already pricing in the first rate cut. The size of the cut is still up for debate, but it is likely to be 25 basis points, with a smaller chance that it could be larger at 50 basis points.

Looking further out to the Fed’s remaining two meetings for the rest of the year, the market expects the Fed to cut rates again. That would represent a total of 100 basis points of cuts expected by the end of 2024. Moreover, the market has priced in 10 rate cuts, or 250 basis points, of total interest rate cuts. These are priced in and expected to occur throughout 2025 with the ultimate destination of 3.00% on the overnight rate.

However, interest rates further out the yield curve have also recently moved down quite a bit. This is what’s known in bond-speak as a “bull steepening” — as the curve normalizes yields across maturities shift lower too, and thus bond prices move higher. Indeed, the narrative continues to shift toward the imminent start of this rate cutting cycle.

The 10-year yield was 3.65% at the time of writing. That is already down significantly – 137 basis points – from the peak of interest rates in October 2023.

The implications for the yield curve

What will happen to the yield curve going forward? Portfolio Manager Mike Dragosits, CFA, expects the yield curve to normalize due to several existing factors. The tightening cycle is ending, and the Fed is poised to embark on a rate-cutting cycle. So, this would mean that short-term bond yields may fall faster and stay relatively lower than long-term bond yields. Continue Reading…