Tag Archives: inflation

Is Inflation making a comeback?

By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In a noticeable turn of events, one of the key talking points for the 2017 investment landscape has been the potential return of inflation. Indeed, only a little more than a year ago, a rather different take on this topic was dominating market discussion: deflation. However, since the results of the U.S. election became known, market participants began to shift their focus to what is being referred to as the “Trump Reflation Trade.”

Quite simply, the logic behind this “trade” is that fiscal stimulus will now take the baton from monetary policy and provide a newfound jolt to the economy, spurring potentially higher growth and elevated inflation readings, accordingly. For the most part, the financial markets appeared to buy into this line of reasoning, as the S&P 500 has risen +10% since Election Day while the U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-Year yield has climbed by about 65 basis points (bps) during this same time frame. Interestingly, broader commodity prices, as measured by the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index,  rose in the two-month period following the election to as high as +6.3% but have since reversed course and were basically unchanged as of this writing.

The most widely followed inflation gauge in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This monthly report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with both the overall and core (excluding food and energy) readings receiving the most attention.

Inflation rise of 2.7% highest in 5 years

The February CPI report revealed that overall inflation rose at a year-over-year rate of +2.7%, the highest in almost five years. Continue Reading…

“Scary” Investment moves to avoid

Shocked scared woman with financial market chart graphic going down on grey office wall background. Poor economy concept. Face expression, emotion, reaction

By Fraser Willson 

 Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

If you have young children or grandchildren, you know what’s really important. Yes, it’s Halloween time again, which means you’ll see plenty of witches and vampires scurrying around. You’ll no doubt find these characters more amusing than frightening, but you don’t have to look far to find things that are a bit more alarming — such as these scary investment moves:

Paying too much attention to the headlines

Some headlines may seem unnerving, but don’t abandon your investment strategy just because the news of the day appears grim.

Chasing “hot” investments

You can get “hot” investment tips from the talking heads on television, your next-door neighbour or just about anybody. But even if the tip was accurate at one point, by the time you get to a “hot” investment, it may already be cooling down. And, even more importantly, it simply may not be appropriate for your individual risk tolerance and goals.

Ignoring different types of investment risk

Most investors are aware of the risk of losing principal when investing in stocks. But if you shun stocks totally in favour of perceived “risk-free” investments, you’d be making a mistake because all investments carry some type of risk. For example, with fixed-income investments, including GICs and bonds, one risk you may encounter is inflation risk — the risk that your investment will provide you with returns that won’t even keep up with inflation and will, therefore, result in a loss of purchasing power over time.

Another risk you can incur is interest-rate risk — the risk that new bonds will be issued at higher rates, driving down the price of your bonds. Bonds also carry the risk of default, though you can reduce this risk by sticking with bonds that receive the highest ratings from independent rating agencies.

Failing to diversify

If you only own one type of investment, and a market downturn affects that particular asset class, your portfolio could take a big hit. But by spreading your dollars among an array of vehicles, such as stocks, bonds and government securities, you can reduce the effects of volatility on your holdings. (Keep in mind, though, that diversification cannot guarantee profits or protect against loss.)

Focusing on the short term

If you concentrate too much on short-term results, you may react to a piece of bad news, or to a period of extreme price volatility, by making investment moves that are counterproductive to your goals. Furthermore, if you’re constantly seeking to instantaneously turn around losses, you’ll likely rack up fees, commissions and possibly taxes. Avoid all these hassles by keeping your eyes on the future and sticking to a long-term, personalized strategy.

You can’t always make the perfect investment choices. But by steering clear of the “scary” moves described above, you can work toward your long-term goals and hopefully avoid some of the more fearsome results.

0ec7e0fFraser Willson is a financial advisor and insurance agent for Edward Jones Investments. He works closely with families and businesses, helping them achieve their investment objectives in an organized and disciplined manner.

 

 

Fixed Income: What about inflation?

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kevin-temp2By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist, WisdomTree

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The last few months have certainly given the money and bond markets a lot of divergent news headlines to digest. Not surprisingly, the focus has been on negative rates abroad, geopolitical events and, a bit more recently, some better-than-expected employment news juxtaposed with a softer-than-expected GDP report. That begs the question: What about inflation? Isn’t that a key ingredient in the bond market mix?

Without a doubt, U.S. inflation data has taken a backseat for fixed income investors, and for good reason; there just haven’t been any fresh developments lately. Certainly, the conversation has shifted from a year ago, when deflation concerns were permeating market psychology. But the latest figures don’t elicit concerns that price pressures will be rearing their ugly head anytime soon, or at least that’s what the collective thinking is in the fixed income markets.

Breakeven inflation ratesvrGP Breakeven-Inflation-Rate

So, what does the inflation backdrop look like? According to the widely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI), the year-over-year inflation rate came in at +1.0% in June (Note 1)—very little changed from the readings posted over the last four months, but definitely higher than the +0.1% for the same month in 2015. The core gauge, which excludes food and energy, rose at a +2.3% annual clip and has been residing in a range last seen in 2012. There continues to be a large dichotomy between core goods (-0.6%) and core services (+3.2%) .(Note 2)

Continue Reading…

The most dangerous asset class may surprise you: Cash!

Depositphotos_16811249_s-2015Investors flee to cash during times of trouble.  However, far from being a safe haven, cash is potentially the most dangerous asset class for investors, luring investors into bigger psychological bubbles than even tech stocks and housing have historically.

We recently wrote about why investors might want to consider holding bonds rather than cash, even at current low and negative yields (see Why on earth would you hold a bond with a negative yield?).  A recent article (see Journey of Cash by Alex Gurevich) and further investor questions have inspired us to think a bit more specifically about cash and its merit (or not!) as an asset class in a well diversified portfolio.

Hold cash for known near-term purchases and an emergency fund

Continue Reading…

Wisdom Tree Canada’s first 6 ETFs; plus 6 ways to prolong nest eggs

wisdomtree-investments-squarelogo-1449147347386We mentioned this was coming in the FP early in June but it’s now official: the first batch of WisdomTree ETFs are now available in Canada.

While WisdomTree Canada opened its office earlier this year, the first six products started trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange Thursday (July 14).

The US parent company is best known for its dividend-weighted ETFs and currency-hedged equity strategies. The initial lineup is focused on the U.S., European and broad international equities. The Head of WisdomTree Canada is Raj Lala, pictured below.

Here’s what he said in a press release today:

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Raj Lala

“By combining the best elements of active and passive investing, WisdomTree’s Smart Beta ETFs give Canadians the opportunity to participate in effective, risk-managed investments. We look forward to growing our business in Canada through a commitment to anticipating and addressing key investor needs.”

Here are the six ETFs and their TSX tickers: Continue Reading…