Last Summer, Rob Carrick at the Globe and Mail asked a few major ETF providers to offer up some inflation protection. In a recent post Rob delivered the inflation-fighting ETF scorecard. There are a couple of obvious winners and a few head-scratching ETFs offered up as inflation-fighters. Here’s the inflation-fighting scorecard, plus the Sunday Reads.
And let’s get straight to the goods. It is no suprise that oil and gas stocks led the way. That is the only sector that provides consistent inflation coverage. Also, base metals are doing their thing. Gold is solid. Vanguard offered up a balanced portfolio (insert WTF emoji face) as an inflation fighter. And they do that after ignoring their own research on inflation and assets.
ClearBridge Investments, part of Franklin Templeton
(Sponsor Content)
Last month, I wrote in Financial Independence Hub about infrastructure as an asset class and the opportunities it can provide for both retail and institutional investors.
Our Global Infrastructure Income team is based In Sydney, Australia and manages funds in the U.S., U.K, Australia, Europe and Canada. Having launched in 2010, the strategy has built assets under management of US$4 billion.1
With inflation at multi-decade highs, war in Ukraine, not to mention the ongoing pandemic, risk management is front of mind for many investors. Adding infrastructure to a balanced portfolio of global equities and fixed income is designed to increase returns while decreasing risk.
Expertise in Infrastructure
Years of experience in the infrastructure space has allowed the ClearBridge team to develop the expertise required to select companies that are best placed to prosper over the long run.
With backgrounds in M&A and unlisted infrastructure, debt and equity financing, buy and sell trading, as well as government and regulation, the team constructs a portfolio of 30–60 listed companies where excess return, yield quality and risk assessment drive position sizing. Given that this is a sustainable fund, ESG integration is another crucial element, as it is for the firm overall: ClearBridge Investments was an early signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Investment back in 2008.
Companies positioned to Succeed
In building the portfolio, the investment team scans the globe for high-quality, listed companies that are positioned to meet the strategy’s income and growth goals. Nextera Energy is one such firm. The largest renewable energy producer in the U.S., Nextera is made up of the parent company Nextera Inc., which owns a regulated utilities company in Florida, as well as Nextera Energy Partners, a yield-oriented renewables vehicle.
The firm’s renewables deployment is expected to increase by more than 50% over the next three years, so it is well placed to benefit from the move towards net-zero carbon emissions across the global economy. Nextera’s strong market position also provides competitive advantages that are driving equity returns that are well above the cost of capital, while its long-term contracts are supporting attractive dividend yield and dividend growth. As a leader in renewable energy, it’s not surprising that the company scores highly in the ‘E’ part of ESG, but it also excels in social and governance metrics too, with strong employee safety standards and excellent management and succession planning. Continue Reading…
ClearBridge Investments, part of Franklin Templeton
(Sponsor Content)
Inflation has been the major theme dominating the investment world in 2022. Canada’s annual inflation rate reached 6.8% in April, representing a 31-year high. Canada is far from an outlier in this respect, with the U.S., the U.K. and many other western nations also experiencing rapid price growth over the past 12 months. In response, central banks have committed to a series of rate hikes this year, which in turn has raised the prospect of a global recession.
In this uncertain environment, market volatility has been elevated, particularly so in bond markets. Downside protection is front of mind for many investors as a result, but there are options out there to still generate returns for a portfolio without loading on risk.
Infrastructure assets, once the preserve of institutional investors, can now be a useful tool for retail investors and help in limiting risk and providing a stable income stream. Launched in Canada last year, Franklin ClearBridge Sustainable Global Infrastructure Income Fund (available as an ETF through FCII), harnesses the expertise of ClearBridge Investments, one of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers. ClearBridge manages infrastructure income funds in the U.S., U.K., Australia, Europe and Canada, with global AUM of US$4 billion, as of March 31, 2022.
An asset class that makes economies function
Infrastructure as an asset class can be loosely defined as the services and facilities necessary for an economy to function. With the ClearBridge Infrastructure strategy, the portfolio is made up of regulated assets (e.g. electricity infrastructure and sewage pipes) which are characterized by stable cashflows, high income and low GDP exposure, and user-pay assets (e.g. airports, ports, railroads and toll roads) which generally provide lower income but are leveraged to GDP.
The investment team can take on a more defensive posture as circumstances dictate. For example, prior to the extreme sell-off of 2020, the strategy had a higher weighting to lower-risk regulated assets, which served it well during that period when its decline was approximately half that of its benchmark S&P Global Infrastructure Index. Continue Reading…
The daily escalation of the war in Ukraine is tragic, and the range of potential outcomes is unsettling. We are seeing a devastating humanitarian crisis and the human toll is immeasurable. Below we speak to some questions we have received and provide insights into how to best manage a portfolio.
Emerging market risks
Russia is one of a group of countries investors call ‘emerging markets,’ which reflects the stage of maturity and development of their economies and financial systems. Collectively, companies in emerging markets are an attractive source of growth for investors, despite their heightened risks. Stock markets in the developed world have comparatively low return expectations resulting from developed markets’ lower economic growth and higher valuations. At CC&L, our emerging markets strategy had a 2% weight to Russian stocks coming into the crisis. When considering this in the context of clients’ overall portfolios, this equates to less than one-tenth of one percent. Client portfolios have no exposure to companies in Ukraine.
What impact has the war had on portfolios?
While direct exposure to Russian and Ukrainian assets may be minimal, portfolios have not been immune to the volatility of the recent weeks caused by the war. Russia and Ukraine are important countries in the supply of commodities. Russia supplied approximately 12% of world oil and about 38% of Europe’s natural gas until the start of the war. Additionally, Russia and Ukraine — known as the breadbasket of Europe — provided roughly 25% of the world’s grain. Since the war began, commodity prices, particularly oil and gas, have shot up, acting like a tax on the global economy. This will put downward pressure on economic growth in many regions.
Context is key
It is important to understand the global economic landscape that was in place before the onset of aggression. The world was experiencing inflation levels not seen in decades, exacerbated by commodity underinvestment and global supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth was riding high, boosted by the massive fiscal stimulus to offset COVID-19-related demand weakness. Continue Reading…
It’s common for investors to be concerned about inflation because it brings to mind the high inflationary period of the 1970s that completely wrecked stock and bond returns. It’s also easy for investors to draw spurious conclusions about government debt and linking that to the hyperinflation that occurred in Zimbabwe or Venezuela. This article aims to set the record straight about inflation and let investors know how to invest during periods of high inflation.
Are we experiencing high Inflation?
Inflation is one of the biggest concerns as we near the end of the global pandemic and economies begin to re-open. Governments around the world spent record amounts to keep their citizens, small businesses, and corporations afloat over the past two years, while a majority of those still employed were able to save money thanks to an economy devoid of travel and entertainment.
The result was a significant uptick in savings rates, with Canada’s household savings rate reaching a high of 28.2% in July 2020.
All this money sloshing around on the sidelines has been and will continue to be deployed into goods and services, creating additional demand for a still strained global supply chain. Consumers are ready to dine out in restaurants, attend concerts, and engage in “revenge travel” to make up for lost time.
When that happens, prices tend to rise. Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) has been rising steadily since March 2021. The 12-month change in the CPI for February 2022 was 5.7% (Stats Can). That’s well above the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target, and even above their acceptable range of 1-3%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. inflation rate soared to 7.9% in February 2022. (Trading Economics).
Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada previously signalled they were willing to let the economy run a little hotter than usual to make sure we achieve so-called full employment. But both central banks are now in tightening mode, raising interest rates by 0.25% in March 2022 to kick-off a series of expected rate hikes for the rest of 2022.
It’s clear that high inflation has arrived and persisted for longer than expected. The question is what should investors do about it (if anything)?
How Investors should position their portfolio to deal with high Inflation
What exactly is an inflation hedge? In an episode of the Rational Reminder podcast, Benjamin Felix said an inflation hedge needs the following three characteristics:
It will correlate positively with inflation, including responding to unexpected inflation.
It won’t be too volatile
It will have a positive real expected return
The problem, Felix said, is that asset doesn’t exist.
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