Tag Archives: interest rates

Bonds: The Comeback Kid

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Image by Shutterstock, courtesy of Outcome

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

A change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that’s all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed
‘Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

Won’t Get Fooled Again. The Who;  © Abkco Music Inc., Spirit Music Group

 

As inflation rapidly accelerated towards the end of 2021, bond yields woke up from their decade plus slumber breathing fire and brimstone. Subsequently, bonds have once again become a worthwhile asset class for the first time since the global financial crisis.

I will explore the historical behaviour and characteristics of bonds. Importantly, I will also discuss how they have reclaimed some of their status as a valuable part of investors’ portfolios.

Riding the Roller-Coaster for the Long Term

Notwithstanding that stocks have periodically caused investors some severe nausea during bear markets, those who have been willing to tolerate such dizzy spells have been well-compensated. In Stocks for the Long Run, Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel states “over long periods of time, the returns on equities not only surpassed those of all other financial assets but were far safer and more predictable than bond returns when inflation was taken into account.”

As the following table demonstrates, not only have stocks outperformed bonds, but have also trounced other major asset classes. The effect of this outperformance cannot be understated in terms of its contribution to cumulative returns over the long term. Over extended holding periods, any diversification away from stocks has resulted in vastly inferior performance.

Real Returns: Stocks, Bonds, Bills, Gold and the U.S. Dollar: 1802-2012

With respect to stocks’ main competitor, which are bonds, Warren Buffett stated in his 2012 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:“Bonds are among the most dangerous of assets. Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal … Right now, bonds should come with a warning label.”

The Case for Bonds

Notwithstanding that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, the preceding table begs the question of why investors don’t simply hold all-stock portfolios. However, there are valid reasons, both psychological and financial, that render such a strategy less than ideal for many people.

The buy-and-hold, 100% stock portfolio is a double-edged sword. If (1) you can stick with it through stomach-churning bear market losses, and (2) have a long-term horizon during which the need to liquidate assets will not arise, then strapping yourself into the roller-coaster of an all-stock portfolio may indeed be the optimal solution. Conversely, it would be difficult to identify a worse alternative for those who do not meet these criteria. Continue Reading…

How a Fed Rate Cut could bolster Canada’s largest Covered Call Bond ETFs

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By Ambrose O’Callaghan, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Blog) 

In late August, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell caused a stir among the investing community when he provided the strongest signal yet that the U.S. central bank is gearing up for interest rate cuts starting in September.

At the time of this writing, we are just one day away from that crucial decision. So what will this mean for  the yield curve, the direction of the Fed, how the change in policy is affecting markets, and the implications for Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (HPYT:TSX) and the Harvest Premium Yield 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (HPYM:TSX) in the final third of 2024. Let’s explore!

How does the yield curve function?

The yield curve, which is a representation of different bond yields across various maturities, can take varying shapes and curvatures. However, the most talked about is the shape of the yield curve in particularly one that’s either normal or inverted. A normal yield curve will have short-term bond yields that are lower than long-term bond yields. This encapsulates the time and risk premium associated with investing further into the future. However, in a period wherein central banks are seeking to slow economic growth/inflation, near-term rates will be raised in a manner that leads to higher short-term yields versus long-term yields. This is called an inverted yield curve, a much rarer occurrence.

Source:  Bloomberg, Harvest Portfolios Group Inc., September 12, 2024

In practice, the difference between the 10-year yield versus the 2-year yield of government bonds is the go-to measure or gauge. The yield curve has been inverted for some time and became dis-inverted (Normal) in August 2024. That is a sign that shorter-term rates are coming down. This likely precedes meaningful interest rate cuts.

Source:  Bloomberg, Harvest Portfolios Group Inc., September 12, 2024

What drives the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate: to achieve maximum employment, and to keep prices stable. Despite taking on one of its most aggressive interest rate hiking cycles in history to regain price stability, inflation has failed to return to the target of 2%, albeit subsiding in recent months. The lower levels of inflation come with slowing economic data and weaker-than-expected jobs data, which belies the Fed’s goal of achieving maximum employment. So, what’s next?

With inflation coming down, the Fed members seem ready to cut short-term rates to alleviate the negative impact of higher interest rates on the economy. But before we get excited, it’s worth noting that the Central bank tools traditionally take time to filter through to the economy. Interest rate cuts may not have an immediate impact on the economy and broader markets but will filter over time.

Ultimately, this shift in policy should return the inverted yield curve to a normal yield curve.

Rate expectations: What is already priced in?

The next Fed rate announcement meeting is on September 18, and the market is already pricing in the first rate cut. The size of the cut is still up for debate, but it is likely to be 25 basis points, with a smaller chance that it could be larger at 50 basis points.

Looking further out to the Fed’s remaining two meetings for the rest of the year, the market expects the Fed to cut rates again. That would represent a total of 100 basis points of cuts expected by the end of 2024. Moreover, the market has priced in 10 rate cuts, or 250 basis points, of total interest rate cuts. These are priced in and expected to occur throughout 2025 with the ultimate destination of 3.00% on the overnight rate.

However, interest rates further out the yield curve have also recently moved down quite a bit. This is what’s known in bond-speak as a “bull steepening” — as the curve normalizes yields across maturities shift lower too, and thus bond prices move higher. Indeed, the narrative continues to shift toward the imminent start of this rate cutting cycle.

The 10-year yield was 3.65% at the time of writing. That is already down significantly – 137 basis points – from the peak of interest rates in October 2023.

The implications for the yield curve

What will happen to the yield curve going forward? Portfolio Manager Mike Dragosits, CFA, expects the yield curve to normalize due to several existing factors. The tightening cycle is ending, and the Fed is poised to embark on a rate-cutting cycle. So, this would mean that short-term bond yields may fall faster and stay relatively lower than long-term bond yields. Continue Reading…

Vanguard unveils new Ultra-Short Canadian Government Bond ETF

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In what it says is its first new ETF announcement in four years, Vanguard Investments Canada Inc. today announced a new Fixed-Income ETF designed to met investors’ short-term savings needs. Here is the full release on Canada News Wire.

Trading on the TSX under the ticker VVSG, Vanguard Canada says the Vanguard Canadian Ultra-Short Government Bond Index ETF offers AAA-rated high-quality government bonds and treasury bills with a low management fee of 0.10%. It seeks to track the Bloomberg Canadian Short Treasury 1-12 month Float Adjusted Index. The release says the ETF will invest primarily in public, investment-grade government fixed-income securities with maturities of less than 365 days issued in Canada.

Vanguard Canada’s first new ETF in 4 years

In an email to me, Vanguard Canada spokesman Matthew Gierasimczuk confirmed “It’s our first ETF launch in four years.” It brings the total number of Vanguard ETFs in Canada to 38, with $80 billion (CAD) in Canadian ETF assets under management. You can find the full list on its website here. Continue Reading…

Understanding Inflation, Interest Rates, and Market Reaction

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Markets can be Scary but more importantly, they are Resilient

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By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Most investors understand or perhaps accept the fact that they are not able to time stock markets (sell out before they go down or buy in before they advance).

The simple rationale is that stock markets are forward looking by anticipating or “pricing in” future expectations.

While the screaming negative headlines may capture attention, stock markets are looking out to what may happen well into the future.

Timing bond markets is even harder than timing stock markets

When it comes to interest rates and inflation, my observation is that the opposite is true. Most investors seem to think they can zig or zag their bond investments ahead of interest rate changes. This is perplexing, as you can easily make the case based on evidence that trying to time bond markets is even more difficult than trying to time equity markets.

Another observation is that many investors tend to be slow to over-react. Reacting to today’s deafening headlines ignores that fact that all financial markets are extremely resilient. Whether good or bad economic news, good or bad geopolitical events, markets will work themselves out and march onto new highs, albeit sometimes punctuated by sharp and unnerving declines. Put another way, declines are temporary, whereas advances are permanent. And remember, this applies to both bond and stock markets.

It is easy to understand why we might be scared about the recent headline inflation numbers and concerned about rising interest. It is very important to keep this in context, which is what we will address today.

Interest Rates are Rising (or Falling)

With interest rates in flux, what should you do? Consider this… Continue Reading…

Then and Now – Revisiting the need for bonds

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Image courtesy myownadvisor/Pexels

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It has been said bonds make bad times better.

Is this the reason to own bonds?

Welcome to another Then and Now post, a continuation of my series where I revisit some older blogposts and either rip them to shreds (because my thinking has totally changed on such subjects) or I’ll confirm my position on various personal finance topics or specific stock and ETF investments.

Since my last Then and Now post (whereby I shared I sold out of all Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock to buy other equities in recent years), I figured it might be interesting to review this post and update my thinking from a few years ago before the pandemic hit – on bonds.

Then – on bonds

Back in 2015 when the original post was shared, I referenced this quote that frames my own portfolio management approach when it comes to my bias to owning stocks over bonds:

“If you want to make the most money, you should invest in stocks. But if you want to keep the money you made in stocks, you should invest in bonds.” – Paul Merriman.

Bonds are essentially parachutes when equity markets fall; bonds will cushion the portfolio landing. And equity markets can fail big at times!

While I understand there are different ways to measure the “equity risk premium,” the summary IMO is the same: the risk premium is the measure of the additional return that investors demand or expect for taking on a particular kind of risk, relative to some alternative.

Buy a bond and hold it until it matures and you know what you will get back.

Invest in equities and the range of outcomes is wide.

With equities, you could make a lot of money, but you could lose a lot.

Equities have to have a higher expected return to compensate investors for taking on this risk.

Otherwise, if the risk premium is not there – why bother with stocks at all?

Now – on bonds

That’s the rub these days, for many investors. Why invest in stocks when interest rates are higher and you can earn 4-5% essentially risk-free?

Of course, there is no way of knowing how equities or bonds will perform until returns for each happen. You can consider rebalancing your portfolio from time to time between stocks and bonds because you expect equities will do better longer-term but that doesn’t mean they will short-term.

Which brings me back to this: risk is the price of the entry ticket to buy and hold stocks. Continue Reading…