Tag Archives: interest rates

Moshe Milevsky Q&A part 2: Longevity Insurance for a Biological Age

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On Friday, the Hub republished the first part of a two-part Question-and-Answer session between finance professor and author Dr. Moshe Milevsky and Gordon Wiebe of The Capital Partner [TCP]. This is the second and final instalment:

TCP: I wanted to turn to your Book, Longevity Insurance for a Biological Age. Your thesis is that we should be  looking at our biological age and using that to calculate and project our income and how much we should be drawing from our savings.

M.M.  And, more importantly than that, making decisions in our personal finances, right?

You know, somebody is trying to figure out at what age they should take C.P.P. Should I take it at 60? 65? 70?I don’t think they should use their chronological age to do that.

Trying to figure out when to retire? Stop using your chronological age.

I mean there’s a whole host of decisions that you have to make based on age and I’m saying we’re using the wrong age metric. It should be based on your biological age.

Now, at this point, biological age sounds like this funny number that comes out of some website, but sooner or later we’ll all have it. And, it’s going to be faster than you think. Your watch will tell you your biological age. And, then in a couple of years, people will stop associating themselves with their chronological age.

They will just stop using it.

And you’re going to sit down with your antiquated compliance driven forms that say, “I need to know my client’s age. Oh, you’re 62.”

And, the client says, “Ha, ha. That’s chronological age. We don’t use that anymore, buddy. I use biological age. Sixty-two, that’s not my age.”

It’s about preparing people for the world in which age is not the number of times we circle the sun.

TCP: What metrics do you think we’ll lean towards to measure biological age? Telemeres? Others?

M.M. There’s a whole bunch of bio-markers that can be used. Some people use telomeres or something called “DNA methylation” or epigenetic clocks. There are about fifty of them, but eventually they’ll all coalesce into a number called “biological age.”

There will be a consensus on how to measure it and you’ll go to your doctor and your doctor will say, “your chronological age is 50, but your biological age is 62.” You’re doing something wrong.

Then a financial advisor will use that information differently when you build a retirement plan.

TCP: That makes sense, but trying to achieve a consensus and getting everyone to use the same metrics from a compliance standpoint or trying to get pension plans and policy makers to agree would be a challenge, wouldn’t it?

MM: It would be. In fact, that’s exactly where I’m headed now. I’m giving a speech in Madrid and that’s exactly what regulators from a number of different countries want me to talk about.

They want to know, “is this feasible? We want to implement this in our pension system. We don’t want wealthy people retiring at the age of 65, they’re going to live forever and bankrupt our system. We want people to retire at a biological age.”

TCP: Let’s talk about that a little more. Advisors typically use a 4% draw on savings as a benchmark withdrawal rate. But, if we use our biological age, there would then be a range. I assume somewhere between 3-6%?

Adjusting the 4% Rule

M.M. You’re absolutely right. That’s where I would go with this. You have to use your biological age and the 4% rule has to be adjusted.

But, what I’m saying is more than that. That rule has to change. It’s not just about the number or percentage. It’s how the rule is applied.

I really don’t like the idea of fixing a spending rate today and sticking to it for the rest of your life no matter what happens. Your spending rate has to be adaptable.

What you have to tell people is, “look, this year we can pull out 6.2%. Next year, it really depends on how markets  behave. If markets go down, we may have to cut back. If markets go up, we can give you a bit more.”

I think the 4 per cent rule is really what I call a one-dimensional rule. It’s not that four is one dimensional. Any one number is one dimensional: just telling them a per cent.

It’s got to be at least two dimensional. Meaning, this is what it is now, but next year if this is what happens we’ll do that. ..

Three dimensional is to go beyond that is to go beyond that and say let’s take a look at what other income and assets you have.

“Oh! You’ve got a lot more income from guaranteed sources, you can afford more than four per cent, this year.”

TCP: It’s a dynamic scenario, a moving target.

M.M. That’s the key word, dynamic versus static.

The threat of rising Interest Rates

TCP: Canadian investors currently have over two trillion invested in mutual funds. Over half is invested in balanced funds or fixed income and we’re in a horrible position where fixed income is concerned. We’ve had declining rates for the past forty years. At best, bonds will stay flat. At worst, bonds could lose up to thirty per cent of their value.

You talk about the importance of the sequence of returns and how that affects income potential. Have you or your students run scenarios with higher interest rates and the impact it could possibly have?

M.M.  I haven’t thought about it beyond what you’re noting. The obvious scenario is as interest rates move up, these things are going to take a big hit.

And, retirees who feel they’ve been playing it safe by putting funds in bonds will suddenly realize there’s nothing safe about bonds in a rising interest rate environment.

I think they’re confusing liquidity and safety with interest rate risk. It’s liquid and its safe. Government is not going to default but boy, can it lose its value.

We’ve become accustomed to this declining pattern. Anybody who is younger than forty doesn’t even understand what higher interest rates means. It’s never happened in their lifetime. They don’t believe it. Understand it. Never felt it. You show them graphs going back to the 1970s. That’s not how to convince them. They’re empiricists. They’ve never lived it themselves, they don’t believe you. Continue Reading…

Short and Steady wins the race: The case for Short-term bonds

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By Adrienne Young, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Director of Credit Research, Franklin Bissett Investment Management

(Sponsor Content)

The phrase “hunt for yield” is by now a well-worn cliché among fixed income investors. Persistently low yields have led many investors to take on additional risk, and some have considered abandoning fixed income altogether.

We think this is a mistake. Even amid fluctuating yields, inflation jitters and pandemic-driven economic upheaval, fixed income can help maintain stability and preserve capital: if you know where to look.

Why Short-term now

For increasing numbers of investors, the short end of the yield curve is the place to be in the current environment. Short-term rates reflect central bank policy actions. Since the pandemic first took hold early in 2020, central banks have taken extraordinary measures to keep liquidity pumping into the marketplace, all without raising rates. Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have so far left their overnight lending rates unchanged and have indicated their intent to continue along this path well into next year, and possibly longer. This predictability has stabilized, or anchored, short-term rates. In contrast, longer maturities have been prone to volatility as the stop-and-go nature of the pandemic has influenced economic reopening, inflation expectations and financial markets.

Franklin Bissett Short Duration Bond Fund is active in short-term maturities, with an average duration of 2-3 years. About 30% of the portfolio is held in federal and provincial bonds; most of the remaining 70% is invested in investment-grade corporate bonds.

Beyond stability, investments need to make money for investors. In this fund, duration and corporate credit are important sources for generating returns. Historically, the fund has provided investors with better returns than the FTSE Canada Short Term Bond Index1  or money market funds, and with comparatively little volatility.

In It for the Duration

Duration is a measure of a bond’s sensitivity to interest rate movements. Imagine the yield curve as a diving board, with the front end of the curve, where short-term rates reside, anchored to the platform. Like a diver’s body weight, pandemic-driven economic forces have placed increasing pressure further out along the curve. The greatest movement ― expressed as volatility ― has been at the long end, especially in 30-year government bonds. Currently, the fund has no exposure to these bonds.

Cushioned by Corporates

Corporate debt provides a cushion against interest rate volatility, and a portfolio that includes carefully selected corporate securities as well as government debt can therefore be a bit more protective. In addition, the spread between corporate and government bonds can provide excess returns.

We believe it is not unreasonable to anticipate stronger Canadian economic and corporate fundamentals in 2021 and 2022, as well as continued demand for bonds from yield-hungry international investors. These conditions support a continuation of the current trend of a slow grind tighter in spreads, with higher-risk (BBB-rated) credits outperforming safer (A and AA-rated) credits.

Credit Quality is Fundamental

In keeping with Franklin Bissett’s active management style, in-house fundamental credit analysis is a key element of our investment process for the fund. Unless we are amply compensated for both credit and liquidity risk (particularly in the growing BBB space), at this stage of the economic cycle we prefer higher-quality credit. We look for strong balance sheets, good management teams, excellent liquidity, clear business strategy and larger, more liquid issues. Continue Reading…

7 ways Investors are capitalizing on Low Interest Rates

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What is one way you are capitalizing on low-interest rates?

To help you take advantage of low interest rates, we asked seven finance experts and business leaders this question for their best insights. From refinancing existing debts to looking into preferred securities, there are several suggestions that may help you benefit from the low interest rates in the current market. 

Here are seven tips for capitalizing on low-interest rates:   

  • Work with a Finance Broker
  • Get into Commercial Real Estate
  • Refinance Existing Debts
  • Consider FHA Loans
  • Maximize your Return on Investment
  • Set up a Line of Credit
  • Look into Preferred Securities 

Work with a Finance Broker

As a commercial finance broker, we work with our clients to make sure they can take advantage of low interest rates based on a thorough financial analysis of their company. By analyzing your credit and financial health, we act as an advisor to clients for the best financing options available. We also build leases and loans that are competitively priced and intelligently structured for an optimal plan that works for the client and incorporates the best rates possible.  — Carey Wilbur, Charter Capital

Get into Commercial Real Estate 

If you’ve been wondering whether or not to buy commercial real estate, I think it is time to take advantage of the “perfect storm” of low borrowing rates. You’ll save a lot of money on interest payments long term. Now is the perfect moment to acquire real estate for assets as an income-generating resource. So whether you need a warehouse, brick-and-mortar store outlet, or even commercial property to place on the rental market, this might be one of the best times to get in the market. Renting your commercial property will provide you with consistent income, and you might also benefit from tax advantages on depreciation and capital gains, to name a few. — Allan J. Switalski, AVANA Capital

Refinance Existing Debts 

I suggest you consider refinancing your small business loan, mortgage, or student debt, which entails paying off your existing loan by taking out a new one. The new loan will have a reduced interest rate. Ideally, opt for a fixed-rate loan to lock in the lower rate. To qualify, you’ll need strong credit, but if you do, you’ll save a lot of money on interest fees. — Sundip Patel, LendThrive

Consider FHA Loans

FHA Loans are a great low-interest lending option that is offered by the Federal Housing Administration. These loans are intended to increase homeownership access to those who may not have the ideal credit score required by other financing options. This can be a great option for prospective real estate investors. — Than Merrill, FortuneBuilders

Maximize your Return on Investment

When interest rates are low, borrowing is much more convenient. Continue Reading…

Inflation and the 5% Solution

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https://advisor.wellington-altus.ca/standupadvisors

By John de Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

One thing that many economic historians often overlook is that one’s worldview is shaped by life experiences.  That includes matters like love, marriage and divorce, money and savings and attitudes toward political risk – to name a few.  If our values, likes and dislikes are shaped by our experiences, it stands to reason that our perceptions of what the future might hold could be largely informed by what we have already experienced.  That’s especially true of the things we experience in our formative years.

In the summer of 2021, for the first time in over a generation, there’s been some talk of inflation being a going concern.    Inflation was wrestled to the ground in the 1980s and hasn’t been heard from since – until now.  As the debate rages about the degree to which we should be concerned (if at all) about inflation coming back in a meaningful way, it is noteworthy that while there are credible economists on both sides of the debate, virtually everyone in the “inflation will be a problem” camp is at least 70 years old.  Stated differently, those people who experienced inflation in their adult lives are concerned and those who did not are not.

Transitory inflation?

For about 30 years now, the goal of central banks in the west has been one of price stability, which they define as inflation at 2%, give or take 1%.  Basically, anything between 1% and 3% is okay.  Now, we’ve experienced inflation above 3% for a couple of quarters and people naturally wonder what that might mean.  Central Bankers have been assuring us that the uptick is “transitory,” that it is just a situation where awful data from the early days of the COVID crisis is working its way through the system.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

Although I am technically old enough to remember inflation, I never had to deal with it personally or directly.  I was a teenager when my parents built the family home on their property in 1979.  I heard about their astronomical, double-digit mortgage rates, but never had to experience anything of the sort as the payor.  My sense is that young people – especially millennials – cannot relate to anything close to what I’m about to say: the inflation rates, and therefore the mortgage rates and interest rates you have experienced throughout your entire lives, may not be around for much longer.  Furthermore, if that is true, the consequences could be enormous.

5% constitutes “Real inflation”

As mentioned, there are competing views on inflation.  I have not come down on either side, but I enjoy the exchange of ideas.  If the doves are right and the inflation we’re seeing now is little more than a passing phase, there’s not much to say because little will change.  If, however, real inflation is coming sooner than later and for longer than just a phase, we need to prepare.  What constitutes ‘real inflation’, you may ask.  My guess is something like 5%.  At that level, no one can pretend that the inflation rate is not a concern and does not need to be dealt with.  For this discussion to be meaningful, inflation needs to be at least 2% above the high end of the traditional range and to stay there for at least a year.  At that point, both the logic behind it being transitory and the facile dismissal of it being above the target by an inconsequential amount disappear.  At that level, something needs to give. Continue Reading…

Fixed Income: Down but not Out

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(Sponsor Content)

While many equity markets have performed well year to date, the last few months have not been as kind to fixed income investors. Last quarter, fixed income markets recorded some of the worst returns in 40 years as central banks and governments worldwide continued to rack up a mountain of debt in ongoing support of the global economy and consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic. But don’t despair; as Franklin Bissett fixed income portfolio manager Darcy Briggs points out in this Q&A, the market still offers value — if you know where to look.

 

Q: How would you describe the current environment for Canadian fixed income?

After seeing significant returns in Canadian fixed income last year, we expect more subdued performance in 2021. Given the year’s starting point of very low interest rates and tight credit spreads, we see corporate credit as offering the best risk-adjusted return opportunities in the current environment. As active, total return managers focused on generating income and capital gains, we know bond selection will remain important this year. Small interest rate moves can lead to significantly different outcomes for different fixed income sectors. Uncertainties remain high, and we are seeing a wide range of forecasts on how the balance of 2021 will unfold. Although interest rates have been up as much as 100 basis points so far this year, we think they may have overshot, as happens from time to time. We would not be surprised if they drifted lower later in the year. Realistically, we expect the path ahead to be a little messy.

Source: FactSet, Franklin Templeton

How so?

This recession/quasi-depression was prompted by a dramatic health crisis and the resulting government-mandated shutdown; it was not caused by normal business cycle dynamics. While fiscal and monetary policy have prevented a full-blown financial crisis, those tools have limited ability to solve the current recession. We believe it will end once the pandemic subsides and the economy fully opens, functioning in a more familiar pre-pandemic way. Vaccines are key to the pace of progress. Continue Reading…