Tag Archives: interest rates

Markets to the Fed: Go Fund Me

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By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In an interesting turn of events, we had an FOMC meeting recently, but the results of this convocation were not what captured the lion’s share of Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines. Indeed, the dislocations that were witnessed in the funding markets, and attendant Fed responses, seemed to take center stage. Essentially, the stresses that emerged in this arena created a situation where participants were clamoring for the Fed to step in and provide the necessary funds to potentially alleviate the pressurized conditions.

Let’s do a quick Fed 101. There’s a certain level of reserves in the banking system that can fluctuate on a daily basis. The N.Y. Fed, acting on behalf of the FOMC’s monetary policy directive, is charged with keeping the Federal Funds target within its prescribed trading range, by either adding or deleting reserves via repurchase (repo) agreements with the primary dealer community, depending upon what is needed to achieve the aforementioned goal. Typically, these daily operations from the Fed go essentially unnoticed and don’t garner any headlines. That’s exactly the way it’s supposed to work.

So what happened this time around? Quite simply, there was a shortage of reserves, or think of it as a “cash crunch.” The “repo” market is a part of the financial system where participants borrow and lend money, using Treasury securities (as one example) as collateral within the transaction. It is in this repo market where the stresses became all too evident, for three reasons. Continue Reading…

Like a good neighbour, the Fed is there

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By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

At last, the July FOMC meeting has come and gone, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has done what was widely expected: it cut the federal funds target range by a quarter point. The Fed also announced they would be ending their balance sheet reductions in August, two months earlier than previously indicated. With all the Fedspeak, changing market expectations and the recent rebound in the jobs report, the time had come for the policy makers to put an end to the conjecture. While this decrease, of 25 basis points (bps), does fit into the Fed’s ”insurance policy” narrative, it still leaves open the question of what the future may hold.

Let’s get right to that point, shall we? Unlike the June FOMC meeting, this gathering was limited to the usual policy statement and Chair Powell’s presser. In other words, there were no blue dots (the Fed’s own fed funds forecasts) this time around. The policy statement, which is what the Fed views as its official policy stance, was little changed from the June meeting including the key phrase “will act as appropriate,” leaving the door open for additional accommodation this year. In fact, since the 50-bps-rate-cut crowd is somewhat disappointed by the July results, the focus has now shifted to another reduction in fed funds at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting.

Remember, this rate cut was really not predicated on the Fed’s baseline outlook for the U.S. economy; it was the voting members’ way of trying to counter any potential negative impacts from trade uncertainty and slowing global growth. With no pushback from the Fed, the money and bond markets had boxed the policy makers into a corner. Despite the fact that U.S. financial conditions were actually easier prior to this meeting than when the Fed started raising rates at the end of 2015, there was concern that without a rate cut, conditions could have tightened. So, while you could say the Fed is back in data-dependent mode, it appears as if monetary policy is still leaning towards another rate cut this year. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: What to do about falling GIC rates

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PWL Capital’s Ben Felix

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published. It looks at the reversal the past year in interest rates, which impacts seniors who had started to look forward to at least half-decent GIC rates near 3%. You can find the full piece by clicking on the highlighted headline: Are GICs right for retirees looking for Fixed Income? 

Short of embracing high-yielding dividend paying stocks, the more palatable alternative for conservative retirees might be fixed-income ETFs. The article focuses on a recent video by CFA Charterholder Benjamin Felix, an Ottawa-based portfolio manager for PWL Capital. Felix argues that at a minimum such investors should have a mix of both fixed-income ETFs and GIC ladders.

The latter let you sleep at night because they are invariably “in the green” in investment accounts. But while in the short term fixed-income ETFs can be in the red — just like equity ETFs — Felix makes a compelling argument for the higher potential returns of bond ETFs.

Felix believes that what really matters for investors is total return: “Holding a lower-rate GIC after a rate increase still results in an economic loss.” Bond returns consist of principal, interest payments and reinvested interest, so focusing only on return of principal misses the point. Individual bonds are not ideal for individual investors, as they require extensive research, are relatively expensive and tricky to trade.

Short-term GICs miss out on the term premium

But short-term GICs miss out on the term premium, which is substantial over time. Going back to 1985, Felix says short-term bonds returned 6.51% annualized versus 7.97% for the aggregate bond universe (which includes some short-term bonds).  This shows how much mid- and long-term bonds bring up the overall return. To be clear, this period captures one of the greatest bond markets in history but Felix says it is still reasonable to expect a relationship between riskier longer-term bonds and higher expected bond returns. Risk and return should be related.

GICs are also illiquid, so even if an investor chooses to include GICs in a portfolio, they will generally also include bond ETFs, which – like stock ETFs – can be sold any trading day. Nor do GICs provide exposure to global bonds.

Of course, a nice alternative are those asset allocation ETFs we have often discussed on this site. See for example this excellent overview by CutthecrapInvesting’s Dale Roberts: Which All-in-One, One-Ticket Portfolio is right for you? 

The Felix video can be found at his Common Sense Investing YouTube series here.

 

Motley Fool: Getting out of Debt as the first step to achieving Findependence

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Those who are regulars to this site will know that Getting out of Debt is the first step towards achieving Findependence, or Financial Independence.

My latest Motley Fool Canada blog has just been published on this topic, which you can read in full by clicking on the highlighted headline: Getting out of Debt to achieve Financial Independence.

As one of the characters in my financial novel, Findependence Day, says to the protagonists: “You can’t climb the tower of Wealth while you’re still mired in the basement of debt.”

As the article reprises, most of us start our financial life cycle with zero or even negative net worth, depending on how much student debt, credit-card debt or later mortgage debt one has accumulated. So if a young person has graduated from college or university and is able to get out of the hole early in their working life, that should be regarded as a huge initial step towards achieving Financial Independence, or Findependence (my contraction).

Keep up the frugal behaviour that got you out of debt

So how do you get out of debt as quickly as possible? The book coins another phrase, guerrilla frugality, which simply means super frugality, whether brown bagging your lunches, taking public transit or any number of other money-saving activities that ensure that you are living within and well below your means. Continue Reading…

Upside Down … the Yield Curve Inverts

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By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Recently, the big news has been that the U.S. Treasury (UST) 3-month/10-year yield curve became inverted for the first time since 2007. It is certainly a noteworthy development in bond-land. As of this writing, the closely watched UST 2-year/10-year spread is still on the positive side at 15 basis points.

Here are some quick insights:

  • The effect of last month’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting is still resonating, with any economic data being viewed through that prism accordingly.
  • The catalyst for this latest inversion may have been the continued soft performances of the Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs), specifically those of the manufacturing sector and Germany.
  • The manufacturing PMIs for Germany, France and the Eurozone are now all in recession territory, with Germany’s at its lowest level since 2012.
  • The 10-year German bund yield dropped into negative territory as a result of the PMIs.
  • This is important for the U.S. rate outlook because the Fed mentions global growth as one of its primary concerns.
  • U.S. economic data has been more mixed but does suggest a slowing in Q1 growth.
  • The U.S. PMI came in below consensus for March, but still safely above the “50” threshold of contraction versus expansion.
  • Existing home sales increased by 11.8% in February. Continue Reading…