Tag Archives: interest rates

U.S. Treasuries: Who’s buying, who’s selling?

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Major Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries Dec. 2016

By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist, WisdomTree

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

One of the linchpins supporting the U.S. Treasury (UST) market in recent years has been the relative yield advantage against the rates that have existed among the sovereign debt of other G7 nations. In the post-U.S. presidential election landscape, fixed-income investors have witnessed a back-up in G7 government bond yields on a global basis, and questions have arisen as to whether said advantage would remain a key contributor to the UST market outlook in 2017, now that the “zero rate club” has shrunk. The best way to answer this query is to examine just who exactly has been buying and who’s been selling, with the first data point looking at developments from the foreign perspective.

Each month, the Treasury Department releases statistics on this front, but it should be noted that the actual data are provided with a one-month lag. Thus, the latest report did not provide any fresh details on how 2017 got started, but it does offer interesting information for calendar year 2016. The report itself is called Treasury International Capital data, or TIC, as it is known in fixed income trading circles, and includes the figures for “Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities.” Continue Reading…

Emerging Market local debt: a seasonal opportunity

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EM Asset Returns and U.S. Benchmark Average Returns over Rolling Three-Month Calendar Windows for Horizons Ending 3/31/06–12/31/16

For definitions of indexes in the chart, visit this glossary.

By Rick Harper, Head of Fixed Income & Currency, WisdomTree

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

So far this year, emerging market (EM) bonds, currencies and equities have outperformed many corresponding U.S. asset classes. The EM rally stands in marked contrast to EM disappointments in January the past three years and is all the more surprising given struggles in both Mexico and Turkey. Investors can now look forward to an investment window that recently has been characterized by EM outperformance and strong absolute returns. Over the last 11 years (the inception of the local debt index1), the three-month investment window from February 1 through April 30 has, on average, produced the strongest returns for EM assets, in particular EM local debt and EM equities,2 and generated the fewest and the smallest shortfalls.

As seen in the table above, EM performance within the February-through-April window is distinct from other three-month investment windows. EM local debt, corporate,3 USD-based sovereigns4 and equities all post their most consistent performance during the window. While other windows tend to be lifted by greater one-time gains, the gains during the early spring period tend to be consistent, and losses are less frequent and shallower in scope.

A Spotlight on EM Local Debt

Among the bond sectors, EM local debt shines brightest during this period, generating substantial excess returns versus EM corporate and EM USD sovereigns. Positive contribution from foreign exchange (FX) is a significant piece of this excess return performance. The local bond returns are robust but still lag both EM corporate and USD-denominated sovereign bonds in isolation. In particular, the falling rate environment has been a very supportive tailwind for much longer-duration USD sovereign debt market proxies. The estimated 3% boost from FX gains pushes local debt to the fore. Continue Reading…

Is it worth it to skip a Mortgage payment?

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By Alyssa Furtado, RateHub.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Skipping a mortgage payment can seem like a good option, especially in an emergency if you don’t have a rainy day fund or savings to dip into. If you lose your job, your car breaks down, or you have any other type of unexpected expense, the option to skip a mortgage payment may look enticing. But is it worth it?

Some mortgage lenders allow you to skip a payment. Here’s what you need to know before deciding whether or not you should choose that option.

What does skipping really mean?

Sounds like a simple fix on a month when everything’s gone south, right? Not so fast. When you skip a payment, you’re not just pushing the expense back a month, you’re still racking up interest.

On a day-to-day basis, it looks like a simple monthly payment. But your mortgage payment actually has two component parts: The principal (the actual payment of the debt itself) and the interest. You don’t pay the principal, but your mortgage lender still charges you interest.

By skipping a month, you lose the chance to pay down the principal and you add on that month’s interest, which gets added to the total amount left on your mortgage.

You wind up with a higher mortgage rather than the number staying the same. The skip doesn’t freeze time. Any scenario where you add more interest should be looked at as borrowing more money.

Looking years down the line, the interest you pay after skipping will be even higher since your loan itself becomes larger. The increase won’t be huge, but if you just took on a mortgage with a 25-year amortization period, the additional interest will add up over time. If you’re close to paying off your mortgage, the interest costs won’t be as high.

Am I allowed to skip?

Continue Reading…

Latest crop of fixed-income ETFs keeps pressure up on fees

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My latest MoneySense blog on ETFs looks in more depth at the four new fixed-income ETFs Vanguard Canada debuted in February, and how they sit versus existing funds in the category. Click on the highlighted text to retrieve the full article: Latest crop of Vanguard ETFs keeps up pressure on fees. 

The Hub noted the arrival of these new fixed-income ETFs when they were announced — here — but since then the 2017 edition of the MoneySense ETF All-stars has come out. For this article, we were interested in what some of the six panelists responsible for selecting the All-Star ETFs had to say about the new Vanguard funds.

The chart below, prepared by Forstrong Global Asset Management Inc. from industry sources, shows the four fixed-income categories the new products cover: Canadian Broad Government bonds; Canadian Broad Corporate; Canadian Short Government; and Canadian Long Aggregate.  As the chart shows, before these new arrivals, there was one iShares fixed-income ETF in three of those categories, except for the well-served Canadian Short Government bond segment, which had one iShares offering, two BMO products and one from First Asset. Actual product names and tickers are shown below, along with data on Duration, MERs, credit quality and the mix of government and corporate issues:

Canadian Broad Government
Ticker Name MER1 Duration1 AAA2 AA2 A2 BBB2 Federal/ Agencies2 Provincial/Municipal2 Corporate2
VGV Vanguard Canadian Government Bond Index ETF 0.25%3 8.0 54% 42% G4% 0% 51% 49% 0%
XGB iShares Canadian Government Bond Index ETF 0.39% 7.9 55% 28% 16% 0% 51% 49% 0%
Canadian Broad Corporate
Ticker Name MER1 Duration1 AAA2 AA2 A2 BBB2 Federal/ Agencies2 Provincial/Municipal2 Corporate2
VCB Vanguard Canadian Corporate Bond Index ETF 0.23%3 5.5 7% 30% 24% 40% 0% 0% 100%
XCB iShares Canadian Corporate Bond Index ETF 0.44% 6.1 4% 25% 34% 38% 0% 0% 100%
Canadian Short Government
Ticker Name MER1 Duration1 AAA2 AA2 A2 BBB2 Federal/ Agencies2 Provincial/Municipal2 Corporate2
VSG Vanguard Canadian Short-Term Government Bond Index ETF 0.18%3 2.7 77% 18% 4% 0% 74% 26% 0%
FGB First Asset Short Term Government Bond Index Class ETF 0.25%3 2.9 72% 17% 12% 0% 71% 29% 0%
ZFS/L4 BMO Short Federal Bond Index ETF 0.23% 2.6 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
ZPS/L4 BMO Short Provincial Bond Index ETF 0.28% 3.0 9% 55% 36% 0% 0% 100% 0%
CLF iShares 1-5 Year Laddered Government Bond Index ETF 0.17% 2.5 61% 21% 18% 0% 49% 51% 0%
Canadian Long Aggregate
Ticker Name MER1 Duration1 AAA2 AA2 A2 BBB2 Federal/ Agencies2 Provincial/Municipal2 Corporate2
VLB Vanguard Canadian Long-Term Bond Index ETF 0.17% 14.8 32% 54% 8% 6% 26% 64% 10%
XLB iShares Core Canadian Long Term Bond Index ETF 0.18% 14.4 29% 30% 33% 9% 24% 54% 22%
1. MER and duration data as of February 28, 2017
2. Credit quality and issuer breakdowns are approximate and based on the most recent publicly available data from the ETF issuers
3. Represents management fee only, as an audited MER is not yet available.
4. ETF offered in both distributing units and accumulating units (L)
Sources: BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial, ETF Issuer Websites

Which type of credit card is best for you?

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Travel and tourism concept. Air tickets, passports and credit cards, tourism and planning, vector illustration
Travel a lot? A travel rewards credit card may be just the ticket.

By Alyssa Furtado, RateHub.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 When it comes to choosing a credit card, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the number of different options available. Although it might seem simplest to choose one with your current bank or go with whatever your friends use, you could be leaving rewards such as cash back on the table by taking a one-size-fits-all approach.

Here are four common profiles and the best type of credit card for each.

Frequent flyer

Making the most of vacation days can be expensive, especially if you like to travel. However, you can often help offset these costs using a travel rewards credit card. There are some great travel rewards programs in Canada where you can start collecting points. But because each program is different, make sure you know how they work.

The BMO Rewards Program is a good example, because for every dollar you spend you can earn up to two points. You can then redeem 100 points for $1 back on a wide range of categories including flights, hotels, car rentals and even merchandise or gift cards. Your everyday spending can really start to add up – for example, if you spend $1,500 a month using the BMO World Elite MasterCard, after a year you would have enough points to redeem $360 in value.

Travel cards often also offer good value because most come with a range of insurance benefits such as lost or delayed baggage, trip delay or cancellation and medical coverage. You can then relax on your travels, knowing that if something does go wrong, you’ll be covered.

Big spender

If you like to use your credit card for most of your everyday purchases and bills, you should look to maximize your rewards with a premium rewards credit card. Many of these cards have an annual fee, but if you’re a big spender, the net reward from premium cards are often much higher because the earning potential is usually much higher than with no fee credit cards.

The best rewards cards typically fall into two categories – travel and cash back. If you’ve decided that you don’t fit into the frequent flyer category above, consider instead a cash back credit card. With this type of card, the amount you can redeem typically starts at around 1%, but can get as high as 4% or even more with special promotions.

Continue Reading…