Tag Archives: interest rates

Why it might be time to rebalance the 60/40 Rule

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Investors follow the 60/40 rule because they are told bonds will protect capital while equities grow it. Why recent drops in bond prices should make us reconsider that rule. 

 

 

By Paul MacDonald, CIO, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

From the moment they start putting money in the market, investors are told to follow the 60/40 rule. It is the broadly accepted wisdom that, for an average retail investor, a 60% allocation to equities and a 40% allocation to bonds will result in a robust portfolio. Equities should deliver growth prospects in the long term while bonds will offset downsides in equities by delivering uncorrelated returns. Bonds preserve capital, and equities grow capital. That’s the accepted wisdom. 

Countless investment fund issuers have packaged this logic into their balanced funds. These funds offer a specific allocation to equities and bonds, usually in line with the 60/40 rule, forming the core of a retail investor’s portfolio.

The problem with accepted wisdom is sometimes circumstances turn it upside down. In the past months we have seen volatility in equity markets and a significant drop in bond prices. That is because the investment landscape has changed. 

Why are bond prices dropping? 

After over a decade of historically low interest rates, followed by massive rate cuts by central banks at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has begun to set in. With rising inflation comes pressure on central banks to raise rates and market expectation that rates will rise, which is itself pushing interest rates higher.  Continue Reading…

Death of Bonds or time to buy short-term GICs?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a recent spate of media articles proclaiming the “Death of Bonds.” You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: Do bonds still make sense for retirement savings?

One of these articles was written by the veteran journalist and author, Gordon Pape, writing to the national audience of the Globe & Mail newspaper. So you have to figure a lot of retirees took note of the article when Pape — who is in his 80s — said he was personally “getting out of bonds.”

One of the other pieces, via a YouTube video, was by financial planner Ed Rempel, who similarly pronounced the death of bonds going forward the next 30 years or so and made the case for raising risk tolerance and embracing stocks. The column also passes on the views of respected financial advisors like TriDelta Financial’s Matthew Ardrey and PWL Capital’s Benjamin Felix.

However, there’s no need for those with risk tolerance, whether retired or not, to dump all their fixed-income holdings. While it’s true aggregate bond funds have been in a  de facto bear market, short-term bond ETFs have only negligible losses. And as Pape says, and I agree, new cash can be deployed into 1-year GICs, which are generally paying just a tad under 3% a year;  or at most 2-year GICs, which pay a bit more, often more than 3%.

One could also “park” in treasury bills or ultra short term money market ETFs (one suggested by MoneySense ETF panelist Yves Rebetez is HFR: the Horizons Ultra-Short Term Investment Grade Bond ETF.) It’s expected that the Fed and the Bank of Canada will again raise interest rates this summer, and possibly repeat this a few more times through the balance of 2022. If you stagger short-term funds every three months or so, you can gradually start deploying money into 1-year GICs. Then a year later, assuming most of the interest rate hikes have occurred, you can consider extending term to 3-year or even 5-year GICs, or returning to short-term bond ETFs or possibly aggregate bond ETFs. Watch for the next instalment of the MoneySense ETF All-stars, which addresses some of these issues.

Some 1-year GICs pay close to 3% now

Here’s some GIC ideas from the column: Continue Reading…

What investors need to understand about the Russian invasion of Ukraine

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By Allan Small,  iA Private Wealth

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Markets are down. The Nasdaq is in bear territory and the S&P500 is in correction territory (at the time of writing).

This is the direct result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not surprisingly, investors are nervous about what will happen to their wealth. I’ve certainly been getting calls from clients unsure about what to do.

Here’s what I’ve been telling them: Don’t panic. This too shall pass. The world has weathered terrible events in the past and come out the other side. We will again.

In my 25-year career as an investment advisor, investors faced Y2K, a worldwide financial collapse, and a global pandemic. In each case, downturns were followed by rebounds and even better returns.

This is temporary and stability will return

Russia’s war against the Ukraine is wrong and creating a tragic humanitarian crisis, but in terms of the markets, investors should view it as a temporary event: because it is. Yes, markets are down – for now – but they are not going to collapse. You are not going to lose all your money. Your wealth may drop for a period of time, but once the war is over, regardless of the outcome, stability will be restored and returns will tick up, in my opinion. For those fearing a global nuclear war, then market performance won’t matter.

Uncertainty causes markets to fall. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, the markets were experiencing volatility because the central banks in Canada and the U.S. announced they would be increasing interest rates and reducing stimulus support. Higher interest rates are the primary tool to curb inflation, which is at record highs in both countries. While this made some investors nervous, it’s important to understand that the fact the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are raising interest rates means the economies in both countries are strong.

Statistics Canada’s labour report for February showed just how strong. Unemployment had fallen below pre-Covid 19 levels for the first time since the start of the pandemic, down to 5.5%.[1] The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer projects an economic rebound and robust performance in the second half of 2022.[2] All of this is good for the markets and those benefits will be realized once the war and geopolitical tensions end.

Energy self-sufficiency will be a positive

Energy prices are high now because demand is greater than supply. Worldwide sanctions against Russia, a major global producer of oil and natural gas, mean Canada, the U.S. and Europe are looking for other suppliers and working to become more energy self-sufficient:  a positive going forward. When the Russia-Ukraine situation becomes more stable, those prices, which are also driving up inflation, will drop, in my opinion. Continue Reading…

Markets can be scary but more importantly, they are resilient

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LowrieFinancial.com: Canva custom creation

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Most investors understand or perhaps accept the fact that they are not able to time stock markets (sell out before they go down or buy in before they advance).

The simple rationale is that stock markets are forward looking by anticipating or “pricing in” future expectations.

While the screaming negative headlines may capture attention, stock markets are looking out to what may happen well into the future.

Timing bond markets is even harder than timing stock markets

When it comes to interest rates and inflation, my observation is that the opposite is true. Most investors seem to think they can zig or zag their bond investments ahead of interest rate changes. This is perplexing, as you can easily make the case based on evidence that trying to time bond markets is even more difficult than trying to time equity markets.

Another observation is that many investors tend to be slow to over-react. Reacting to today’s deafening headlines ignores that fact that all financial markets are extremely resilient. Whether good or bad economic news, good or bad geopolitical events, markets will work themselves out and march onto new highs, albeit sometimes punctuated by sharp and unnerving declines. Put another way, declines are temporary, whereas advances are permanent. And remember, this applies to both bond and stock markets.

It is easy to understand why we might be scared about the recent headline inflation numbers and concerned about rising interest. It is very important to keep this in context, which is what we will address today.

Interest Rates are Rising (or Falling)

With interest rates in flux, what should you do? Consider this…

Positioning for Inflation – Dimensional Fund Advisors

Also, check out DFA’s video: How to Think about Rate Increases

But as it relates to your immediate fixed income holdings we don’t recommend reacting to breaking news. A recent Dimensional Fund Advisors paper, “Considering Central Bank Influence on Yields,” helps us understand why this is so. Analyzing the relationship between U.S. Federal Reserve policies on short-term interest rates versus wider, long-term bond market rates, the authors found:

“History shows that short- and long-term rates do not move in lockstep. There have been periods when the Fed aggressively lifted the fed funds target rate — the short-term rate controlled by the central bank — while longer-term rates did not change or “stubbornly” declined.”

Steve Lowrie holds the CFA designation and has 25 years of experience dealing with individual investors. Before creating Lowrie Financial in 2009, he worked at various Bay Street brokerage firms both as an advisor and in management. “I help investors ignore the Wall and Bay Street hype and hysteria, and focus on what’s best for themselves.” This blog originally appeared on his site on March 7, 2022 and is republished here with permission.

Retired Money: Do Inflation-linked Bonds make sense in an era of rising interest rates?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column, which has just been published, can be found by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Do inflation-linked bonds make sense in an era of rising interest rates?

The topic is one that until mid 2021 received relatively scant attention: Inflation-linked Bonds and/or ETFs that own them. In Canada, these are called Real Return Bonds (RRBs) while their equivalent in the United States are called Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). There are ETFs trading both in Canada and the US that let users own baskets of these securities.

Of course, inflation didn’t seem to be a huge issue for investors until around the summer of 2021 and then the fall, when suddenly the headlines were full of ominous new levels of inflation not seen in years or decades.

These days, traditional non-inflation bonds, or “nominal” bonds famously pay very little in interest, and net returns net of high inflation can easily end up being negative. The idea with RRBs or TIPS is that If inflation ticks above certain levels, such bonds or ETFs holding them  tack on extra interest payments roughly commensurate with the rise in the official inflation rate.

Inflation plus Rising Interest Rates

But the column addresses the question of what if the longer-term bonds held in these funds inflict capital losses when interest rates spike at the same time? That’s the problem with some Canadian RRB ETFs that hold too much in long- or mid-term bonds, and most of them do. 2021 was not a good year for funds like the iShares Canadian Real Return Bond Index ETF (XRB) or the BMO Real Return Bond Index ETF (ZRR), which lost almost 5% in the first nine months of 2021, but ended the year slightly positive.

This is less of a problem if you hold RRBs directly: Real Return Bonds issued by Ottawa have long maturities, ranging from five years out to 30 and even 40 years out. I use to own some of these directly, listed as Government of Canada Real Return Bonds, maturing in December 2021 .When I tried to find a new series at RBC Direct Investing, none seemed to be available online. I discovered you can buy newer issues by calling the discount brokerage’s bond desk. The column describes one maturing in 2026 [which I ultimately purchased, although it is now slightly under water] and a second in 2031.

US TIPS ETFs hedged to Canadian dollar

But if you want to diversify through funds, minimize interest rate risk and get exposure to both RRBs and TIPs, there’s a lot more choice with US-traded TIPS ETFs like the Vanguard Short-term TIPS ETF [VTIP], which hold mostly short-term bond maturing in under five years. Continue Reading…