Tag Archives: investing

Bullshift Culprits 1 and 2: FOMO and TINA

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By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Bullshift Culprit #1 FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

For anyone who has been out of the loop, there are a number of acronyms and memes that have popped up over the past decade that help commentators to capture contemporary zeitgeist.  One of the most popular is FOMO – the Fear Of Missing Out.  The basic idea here is that other people are doing something (having fun, getting rich, cheating the tax man) that others want to get in on.

Getting in on things is all fine and well, provided they are legal.  Many aspects of FOMO are indeed legal and it should be obvious that there are social risks associated with wanting to do things that are not.  The thing to note is that there’s strong social pressure to participate – largely because there is some form of social proof that makes it seem as though everyone else is doing it, too (and getting away with it). If there’s one thing that upwardly-mobile people hate, it’s the notion that they are not ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ when they quite easily could be – if they only did whatever it was the Joneses are doing to give them the status / income / happiness edge they have in the first place.

Of all the possible examples of FOMO, getting rich by playing the stock market may well be the most insidious and the most common.  Anyone with seed money can do it.  No matter how rich or poor you are, if there’s a sense that you can make (say) an “easy 15%” on your money by investing in security X or product Y and that Betty and Bob in marketing both did it (and showed you their quarter end statements to prove it), the pull is often irresistible.  This can sometimes be fodder for something called “greater fool theory.”

Most real investors say “buy low; sell high,” but it needs to be noted that there is a segment of the population that makes money by using the principle of “buy higher; sell higher.” As long as there’s a ‘greater fool’ out there who is prepared to pay even more than the outrageous price you paid for something, you can make money by paying an outrageously high price to begin with.  This is a bit like a game of chicken or musical chairs.  At some point, the market runs out of ‘fools’.  In finance lingo, that’s when the bubble bursts. Continue Reading…

The unintended consequences of ESG paternalism

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By Cory Clark

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

As a parent, it can be hard to let your children make their own decisions. Particularly when you question the wisdom of the decisions they may make. At some point however, you have to let children make their own decisions. As they mature, that’s what they deserve, and it’s entirely possible they’ll make the right decision for them, even if it’s not the decision you would have made. One of the unintended consequences of overprotectiveness is that as soon as that child gets the chance, they fly the coop and stay as far away from their overbearing parents as they can. “Local college? No thanks.”

Last month, the U.S. Department of Labor [DoL henceforth] became a helicopter parent and pushed its proverbial children out the door when it issued new proposed rulemaking related to ESG [Environmental, social and corporate governance] investments within retirement plans. “Financial Factors in Selecting Plan Investments” seeks to codify harsh guidance on ESG investments within retirement plans, which will very likely have a chilling effect on the availability of such investment options to retirement plan participants.

The proposed rule is paternalistic to both plan fiduciaries and plan participants. With respect to plan fiduciaries, the DOL takes the unusual step of supplanting industry experts’ professional judgment in favor of their own. But perhaps the more damaging effect of the proposed rule is that it tosses aside the participant’s personal choice related to the values underlying their retirement investments. The Department has in essence said to America’s retirement plan participants, “we know better than you, and as long as you live under our roof…” This positioning can bring about a very predictable response, stop living under that roof and unlock your personal choice. Ironically, the Department issued a second proposed rule the very same month which shows participants the door.

The second proposed rule issued by the DoL, “Improving Investment Advice for Workers & Retirees,” officially reinstated ERISA’s 1975 definition of fiduciary, but made some critical adjustments to its interpretation such that rollover recommendations will be considered a fiduciary act and subject to an annual retrospective review. The proposed exemption would allow otherwise prohibited rollover recommendations, provided that the recommendation is given under an impartial standard of conduct.

DALBAR finds EST investments attractive in DC pensions

A recent DALBAR study shows that ESG investments are an attractant to defined contribution plan participation. It’s only natural that the inverse would also be true; the absence of ESG investments within a plan can be an incentive to invest elsewhere or not invest at all. This incentive is only going to get stronger as the younger generations, who have a greater preference for ESG, begin to make up a greater proportion of the retirement plan market. Continue Reading…

Strategies for Self-Managed Portfolios

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By Del Chatterson

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

First the disclaimer: I am not an expert. Certainly not a certified financial planner or financial advisor. But I have managed my own portfolio for more than thirty years and I’m willing to share the strategies that worked for me and might work for you.

Like the Random Ramblings of Uncle Ralph in my book of advice for entrepreneurs, Don’t Do It the Hard Way [shown on the left], I strongly believe in the value of learning by sharing stories and ideas with my fellow adventurers in life, business and investing. Based on my experience in successfully growing an investment portfolio over several decades, these are my suggestions for your consideration.

Start with educating yourself. Learn from the experts. Read Warren Buffett’s bible, the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, to understand the basic principles of investment analysis and value investing. (The technical details may be beyond your understanding and are probably more than you need or want to know.) Look at current recommendations and valuation assessments of competent financial analysts to understand their processes and the factors that most affect future prospects for any business. You’ll discover that while there may be consensus, there is never unanimity. Learn to evaluate businesses against the criteria used to identify the top performers in Built to Last and Good to Great by James Collins and Jerry Porras. You will gain confidence and learn to trust your own analysis and instincts to select investments in businesses that you also understand, like and respect. Would you buy from this company? Would you like to work for this company?

Start to build your self-managed portfolio with an online direct-investing resource. You may choose to gradually transition from your current advisor or financial planner as you gain confidence, before deciding whether or not the results justify their fees for portfolio management services. You may decide not to interfere with their good management and avoid taking on the responsibility of managing your own portfolio.

Although I’ve been satisfied with my own portfolio management, I’ve still left some of the family portfolio with an investment advisor. I don’t want all the financial responsibility and it continues to give me a convenient comparative benchmark and resource for evaluating my own portfolio management. But if you’re confident in your knowledge and analysis and in your ability to remain calm, cautious and patient through the inevitable crises and extended downturns, then you’re ready to take charge and do it yourself for some of your investment portfolio.

At this point, the decision depends on your confidence, interest and ability to achieve better performance at lower cost. Although, the rationale for assuming management of a self-directed portfolio can range from loving the challenge and the learning experience to the thrill of taking risks and enjoying the entertainment spectacle of volatile and irrational markets.

If you do decide to start building and managing your own portfolio, it is essential to give yourself some key ground rules related to risk and return, just as you would give your risk tolerance profile and return expectations to your financial planner. Control your impulses with restraining limits on the amount of individual investments and the criteria for risk-reducing diversification. My two overriding guidelines: never more than ten percent of the portfolio in any one investment and never less than fifteen distinctly different investments. Continue Reading…

3 ways to build your Finances with minimal sacrifice

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Image by Pixabay

Gary Bordeaux

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Money is an ever important facet of living in human society. As they say, “money makes the world go ‘round,” but it often seems like your bank account is never full enough to meet all your needs, let alone desires. However, there are methods available to help the average person get ahead of the curve to improve their finances and otherwise build their dream lives. Here’s what you need to know.

Financing Luxuries

When thinking of financing, one tends to think of a house or a car. This service has been integral in providing the working class with things that are necessary but prohibitively expensive for quite some time. However, there are other scenarios in which financing expensive products can be the best way to balance smart financial decision making with living your best life. For example, you can finance swimming pools to get the summertime recreation and relief you desire without spending a fortune on it in the moment. By spreading that cost out over time, you can bring your vacation to you without breaking the bank. This principle can also apply to many high end electronics, such as iPads, and it can also apply selectively with general retail products via layaway programs. Using these methods, you can gain the advantages of living beyond your means without actually taking the risk of doing so.

Reducing Costs

One of the most important methods of saving money is by spending less. Some might argue that refusing to spend money on creature comforts and luxuries is the right choice, that is only partially true. While some luxuries can be eliminated, those that enrich your life are important to maintaining mental health. Instead of making meaningful sacrifices, costs can be cut by simply buying less expensive alternatives to costly staples. Name brand products often fill that role, but you can often get the same value at a lower price by choosing off brand products instead. Continue Reading…

Three things you and I don’t know about Investing

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By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

There’s never a lack of commentary on what we know about investing: or at least what we think we know. Experts and amateurs alike love to opine on the subject.

For a change, let’s cover three things we don’t know about investing, and how to use our “ignorance” to become better investors.

1.) We don’t know what tomorrow will bring

What’s money for? It’s for funding everything you would like to consume in your lifetime (and bequest to your heirs). The catch is, none of us knows exactly how our lives and financial positions are going to unfold. In “How To Think About Investment Risk,” Professor Ken French describes this risk as “uncertainty about lifetime consumption.”

Because we don’t know what lifetime risks we’ll be facing, or when we’ll be facing them, it’s best to build them into your investment strategy from the beginning. That way, you’re already as ready as possible when they do occur. It’s why we suggest maintaining liquid lifestyle reserves, balancing your portfolio between stocks and bonds, diversifying across broad market risks, and buying insurance to safeguard your most valuable consumables.

2.) We don’t know ourselves 

Another common blind spot is how often our subconscious thinking tends to drive our supposedly deliberate decisions. In his book of the same title, Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman calls this “Thinking, Fast and Slow.” Fast thinking keeps us alive in an emergency. Slow thinking helps us solve complex equations. By realizing you’re usually thinking on two levels, you can build this into your planning, particularly when balancing risks and expected rewards.

For example, Kahneman describes how people are inherently loss averse: We usually hate losing money about twice as strongly as we enjoy making money. You can leverage this hidden bias (along with basic math) to create an appropriate investment balance between the risks and expected rewards you choose to invest in. For example, would you bet your entire life savings on a 70% chance of doubling your money, but a 30% chance of losing everything? Most people wouldn’t take that bet, as the downside would seem too severe.

By acknowledging our hidden “fast thinking” tendencies, we stand a much better chance of sensibly building its influence into the financial choices we face.

3.) We don’t know what we don’t know

Ever heard of “the Dunning-Kruger Effect”? It’s a fancy term for describing how people who are less familiar with a subject tend to be more confident about their understanding of it than someone who is an expert in the same.

This MindfulThinks video describes how the effect works by comparing a college basketball fan to an actual player. An ardent fan may believe they know almost everything about the game, while the player may feel they’ve only mastered half of its intricacies. Why the disconnect? The player’s deep, hands-on experience leads to a more realistic assessment of everything there is to know about the sport. In contrast, the fan is blissfully unaware of huge gaps in their second-hand understanding. Continue Reading…

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