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Investing Advice to follow in the Midst of Two Wars

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Investing advice when Putin’s at war against Ukraine. Plus, Putin and the Israel-Hamas War

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Russia launched the war in 2014, during the second Obama term, when it invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. At the time, the U.S. and NATO were still unsure about how to react to Russia’s aggression toward its former possessions. Many observers felt Russia was just trying to retrieve some of the stature it lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it expected Ukraine to collapse right away (the way France collapsed under the 1940 German invasion, say). The U.S. and other observers feared/expected the same. They still began sending security aid to Ukraine before the invasion. They also used threats of trade and financial sanctions to try to scare Russia off. These steps failed. However, Ukraine fought back surprisingly well and attracted additional aid from the West.

Putin soon saw that he had guessed wrong. But he assumed the West would quickly lose interest. Instead, the West stepped up its aid. Russia then began a series of veiled threats of military escalation, all the way up to tactical nuclear weapons.

My sense is that after its initial stumble, Russia still hoped/believed that if it kept up the military pressure and escalation/nuclear threats long enough, Ukraine and its supporters would agree to a lengthy ceasefire that would work in Russia’s favour.

It seemed to me and many other people that this was unlikely. In April of that year, I wrote that “Russia could launch a nuclear war, but it would find itself fighting against most of the advanced countries of the world. Putin is vain and may be deranged, but he isn’t stupid.”

Later I voiced the off-the-cuff view that any nuclear attack on Ukraine would spark a much more lethal response from NATO forces, which vastly outnumber Russia’s.

Just recently I came across the actual NATO-versus-Russia figures (below) from veteran Toronto journalist Diane Francis, writing in her Substack.com publication. (Note: her chart refers to a Military Asset as a “Characteristic.”)

Military Asset Comparison Between NATO and Russia

Source: dianefrancis.substack.com

The numbers show an even greater numerical advantage for NATO than I imagined. That’s just the start.

The West is also way ahead of Russia in technology, sanctions, finances, morale, global support and pretty much anything else. Russia’s main advantage in war is its ruthlessness in throwing untrained soldiers — mostly from prisons or Russian-speaking racial/cultural minorities — onto the front lines, until the other side runs out of ammunition.

Putin can only hope that Biden or a successor loses his grip and abruptly pulls out of Ukraine the way the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan in August 2021, after two decades of hostilities.

As the sarcastic one-liner goes, that’s not likely.

Nobody can predict these things, of course. My sense is that we are seeing the last gasps of Europe’s last empire. I’d guess the outcome won’t be pretty or quick, but it may turn out to be a historical milestone. A worldwide swing back toward democracy and away from authoritarianism just might follow.

Putin and the Israel-Hamas War

My guess is that the Israel-Hamas war is just getting started and will last a long time. I also suspect that Putin had something to do with getting it started, and will do what he can to keep it going. After all, when it comes to running his country, Putin takes a grasping-at-straws approach.

Putin may think that bringing the longstanding Mideast conflict back into the headlines is going to improve his chances of conquering Ukraine and bringing the Soviet Union back from the dead.

He thinks taking a long shot is better than no shot at all. Who knows? He might get lucky.

Early on in his war on Ukraine, Putin seemed to think that Chinese dictator Xi Jinping was going to take pity on him and his country, and offer free money and/or weapons to shore up Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Instead, Xi insists on staying out of the war, while paying discount prices for Russian oil. He takes special care not to let his country get caught up in the economic sanctions that the U.S. and NATO countries and allies are directing against the Russians.

It’s not that Putin is stupid. If a war between Israel and Hamas turns out to be a big drain on the U.S. budget, the U.S. might have less money available to arm Ukraine.

Up until lately, however, Israel has had little to say about Russia’s treatment of Ukraine. Israel may soon take a more active role in helping Ukraine defend itself.

Any war is a terrible thing, and this one is no different. Meanwhile, the stock market seems to be creeping upward. Maybe it knows something that Putin hasn’t figured out. If you’re looking for investing advice related to the wars around us, spend more time learning about the wars themselves.

Meantime, if your stock portfolio made sense to you a week or two ago, we advise against selling due to Mideast fears

No matter what the state of the world, here are three rules you can follow for maximum portfolio success:

Rule #1: Invest mainly in well-established, profitable, dividend-paying stocks.

Our first rule will help you stay out of high-risk, low-quality investments. These investments are always available, in good and bad markets. They come with hidden risks due to conflicts of interest and other negatives. Every year, they lead many inexperienced investors to substantial losses. Continue Reading…

Dividend ETFs: Finding Stability and Growth in Income Investments

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Discover the Keys to Identifying Dividend ETFs that offer Consistency, Quality, and Long-Term Growth

Image from Pexels/Anna Nekrashevich

Higher interest rates mean dividend-paying stocks must increasingly compete with fixed-income investments for investor interest. However, sustainable dividends still offer an
attractive and growing income stream for investors.

Companies that pay regular and growing dividends have performed very well over the long run when compared to the broad market indices. For example, a simple strategy such as selecting stocks with an extended history of uninterrupted dividend growth, such as represented by the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, has added 11.5% per year over the past 30 years. This compares to the 10.0% annual gain for the S&P 500 Index. And not only did the dividend payers beat the overall market, but they were also less volatile.

The superior long-term performance of the dividend growth companies can be attributed to a combination of several factors: Companies with long histories of regular and growing dividend payments generally have sound competitive business models and growing profits; these are also companies with experienced managements that make disciplined capital allocation decisions, strive for lower debt levels, and operate firms more profitable than their peers.

Notably, though, the Dividend Aristocrats’ performance lagged over the past 5 years against the S&P 500 index.

Most of this underperformance came over the last year and a half, as higher interest rates made fixed-income investments, such as GICs, more attractive for income-seeking investors when compared to dividend-paying equities.

The dividend sweet spot

Income-seeking investors who decide to take on the risk of the stock markets are faced with a wide range of options including “yield enhanced” dividend-paying ETFs, moderate-yielding companies with average growth rates, and low-yielding but fast-growing companies. Then there is also the group of companies that have very high dividend yields and may seem attractive but, unfortunately, come with elevated risk.

In many cases, a high yield may be a warning sign that all is not well with a company and that future dividend payments are at risk of being cut.

As well, a dividend cut, or even an outright dividend suspension, is often accompanied by a steep decline in the share price, as income investors dump their former dividend favourites.

A 2016 study by a group of U.S.-based academics provides some statistical guidelines for sensible dividend-based investing.

In reviewing the performance of almost 4,000 U.S. companies over 50 years, they found that dividend-paying stocks beat non-dividend payers.

In particular, the middle group of dividend yielders (i.e., those with an average yield of 4.3%) surpassed both the low yielders and the high yielders in terms of total return. Equally important, this superior performance was achieved with lower risk, as measured by the standard deviation of returns.

Based on this long-term study, it makes sense to avoid the highest-yielding stocks and rather look for companies with moderate yields and sound growth prospects. This safety-first approach will result in a lower yield but likely provide a better total return (dividends plus capital) at lower risk.

How to spot dividend ETFs worth investing in

When investing in dividend-paying companies through an ETF, here are key factors to consider: Continue Reading…

The waiting is the hardest part, and the most profitable times for investors

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By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Investors are starting to notice that their portfolios have been treading water for a couple of years. Over the last two years, a global balanced growth portfolio would essentially be flat. Of course, move out to 3-year, 5-year and 10-year time horizons and we have very solid to generous returns.

At times investors have to wait. We build and springload the portfolio waiting for the next aggressive move higher. In fact, these holding periods can be beneficial: we are loading up on stocks at stagnating or lower prices. We’re able to buy more shares. The waiting is the hardest part for investors. But it is essential that we understand the benefits to sticking to our investment plan.

In January of 2021 I wondered aloud in a MoneySense post if the markets might not like what they see when we get to the other side of the pandemic. That’s an interesting post that looks back at the year 2020, the year the world changed with the first modern day pandemic. That suspicion is ‘kinda’ playing out as the markets stall and try to figure things out.

That’s not to suggest that my hunch was an investable idea. We have to stay invested.

Stick to your plan when the market gets stuck

Patience is the most important practice when it comes to wealth building. When done correctly, building life-changing wealth happens in slow motion and it is VERY boring.

Boring is good.

Waiting can be boring. But maybe it can look and feel more ‘exciting’ if we know what usually happens after the wait. Stock markets work like evolution. There are long periods of stagnation and status quo and then rapid moves and change.

Instead of boring, maybe it should feel like a kid waiting for Christmas. The good stuff is on its way.

Here’s an example of a waiting period, from 1999. The chart is from iShares, for the TSX 60 (XIU/TSX). The returns include dividend reinvestment.

And here’s the stock market ‘explosion’ after the wait.

That’s more than a double from the beginning of the waiting period.

And here’s the wait from 2007, moving through the financial crisis. Ya, that’s a 7-year wait. Talk about the 7-year itch, many investors filed for divorce from the markets.

It was a costly divorce.

Markets went on a very nice run for several years. Continue Reading…

I Will Teach You to be Rich (Review)

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Amazon.ca

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to Financial Independence Hub

 

There aren’t many financial gurus willing to call out financial companies by name for their bad behaviour, but Ramit Sethi is one of them.  In his book I Will Teach You to be Rich, he promises “a 6-week program that works,” and he includes advice on which banks to use and which to avoid.

The book is aimed at American Millennials; Canadians will learn useful lessons as well, but much of the specific advice would have to be translated to Canadian laws, banking system, and account types.  The book’s style is irreverent, which helps to keep the pages turning.

It may seem impossible to fix a person’s finances in only 6 weeks, but this is how long Sethi says it will take to lay the groundwork for a solid plan and automate it with the right bank accounts and periodic transfers.  The execution of the plan (e.g., eliminating debt or building savings) will take much longer.

Sethi is rare in the financial world because he will say what he really thinks about banks.  “I hate Wells Fargo and Bank of America.”  “These banks are pieces of shit.  They rip you off, charge near-extortionate fees, and use deceptive practices to beat down the average consumer.  Nobody will speak up against them because everyone in the financial world wants to strike a deal with them.  I have zero interest in deals with these banks.”  For the banks he does recommend, “I make no money from these recommendations.  I just want you to avoid getting ripped off.”

People have many reasons why they can’t save and are in debt, but Sethi sees them as just excuses in most cases.  “I don’t have a lot of sympathy for people who complain about their situation in life but do nothing about it.”  “Cynics don’t want results; they want an excuse to not take action.”  He urges readers to “put the excuses aside” and get on with the business of making positive changes.

The Program

The first step in the program is to “Optimize Your Credit Cards.”  I found it interesting that Sethi focused on credit card perks before he covered eliminating credit card debt.  He wants readers to “play offense by using credit cards responsibly and getting as many benefits out of them as possible” instead of “playing defense and avoiding credit cards altogether.”  This approach sets him apart from many other experts on getting out of debt.  While he does teach methods of eliminating debt, his focus is more on building wealth steadily.

The second step is to open “high-interest, low-hassle accounts.”  Interestingly, he wants readers to open a chequing account at one bank and a savings account at another bank.  Among his reasons are that the psychology of a separation between accounts makes us less likely to raid savings.  Some might think opening a savings account is pointless if they have no money to deposit, but Sethi insists that you need to lay the groundwork now for a better future, even if you’ve only got $50 to deposit.

The third step is opening investment accounts.  The author favours very simple investments, such as a Vanguard mutual fund account invested in a target date fund.  “Don’t get fooled by smooth-talking salespeople: You can easily manage your investment account by yourself.”  Unfortunately, Vanguard mutual funds are only available to Americans.  Canadians can find one-fund solutions with certain Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

To create the cash flow to reduce debt and invest, the fourth step is about “conscious spending,” which is “cutting costs mercilessly on the things you don’t love, but spending extravagantly on the things you do.”  Achieving this involves tracking spending in different categories, but not traditional budgeting. Continue Reading…

Timeless Financial Tips #6: Aligning your Investments with your Time Horizon

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Lowrie Financial: Canva Custom Creation

By Steve Lowrie, CFA 

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I’ve spent my entire career railing against the dangers of market-timing — i.e., dodging in and out of markets based on current conditions. But there is a time when “timing” of a different sort matters. I’m talking about your investment time horizons.

Today, let’s look at how to use your personal time horizons to successfully separate today’s spending from tomorrow’s future wealth.

Spending and Investing over Time

One of the reasons we advocate for holding a diversified investment portfolio is because your investment horizons are diverse as well:

  1. For immediate spending, you’ll need cash reserves, which almost don’t count as investments.
  2. To preserve what you’ve already got and smooth out the ride, we turn to medium-term holdings such as bonds.
  3. For your long-term spending plans, nothing beats the overall staying power of owning a slice of the corporate pie, typically in the form of stocks, stock funds, or similar equity stakes in markets around the world.

On that last point, global equity markets are relatively dependable in one sense: by delivering on the success of collective human enterprise, they’ve delivered strong, inflation-busting returns in the long run. But these same markets are also quite chaotic in the near-term, with big, unpredictable price swings along the way. This means not all your dollars belong in this arena to begin with: only the ones you’re prepared to invest in for a good, long while. In other words:

Your cash reserves are for spending sooner than later. Your long-term investments are there for your future self, rather than as an ATM-like source for immediate spending.

Market-Timing vs. Financial Planning

How do you determine how long is “long-term” for your investments? Unfortunately, many investors use market-timing instead of personalized financial planning to decide when it’s time to move their money in and out of various positions. They pile into the action when markets surge and flee as they plummet. This is a timeless timing tragedy that foils the ability to preserve, if not grow, wealth over time.

Instead, use your own goals and investment timeframes to decide how much of your wealth to invest in pursuit of higher expected returns, as well as how much to shelter against the uncertainty.

  • For upcoming spending needs, your money may be best kept in cash or similar humdrum holdings. That way, it’s there when you need it. The catch is, cash and cash-like reserves aren’t expected to keep pace with inflation over time, which means your spending power gradually shrinks. So …
  • For spending that’s still years away, you’ll want to own positions that are expected to generate new wealth, rather than just maintain a status quo. That’s where the wonder of global enterprise comes in — aka, stocks. The catch here is, you must commit to keeping your future money patiently invested and ride out the downturns along the way.

Estimating your Time Horizon

Even if you’re committed to financial planning, it’s surprisingly common to underestimate how much time you’ve actually got to invest. For a couple retiring at age 65, there is a 50% chance one of you will live past age 90, which means your retirement timeline could be 25–30 years, or more. Extend it even further if you’d also like to leave a substantial financial legacy. Continue Reading…