Tag Archives: S&P500

Don’t mix Politics & Investing but financial community thinks a Trump victory more positive for Stocks

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Top investment executives told a webinar held Wednesday morning that investors should not mix Politics and Investing. Even so, while market observers at Franklin Templeton view the upcoming U.S. election as essentially a “toss-up” they seem to believe that a victory or sweep by the Republicans’ Donald Trump would be more positive for stocks than a Kamala Harris win.

Grant Bowers, portfolio manager and Senior Vice President for Franklin Equity Group, said “it’s a 50/50 tossup for the presidential winner. Both candidates are well known so it’s not surprising” there’s been little market volatility in the runup to the November 5th election. Generally, he’s bullish no matter the outcome.  The economy did well in Trump’s first term while a Harris victory would be a continuation of Biden policies. The real differences are on tariffs, fiscal policy and regulation. “The most likely outcome is a split government” but there would be more volatility if there is a sweep by either party.

Of course, it’s quite possible that investors won’t know the official outcome for several weeks. If the process of counting votes drags on and there are legal challenges like there were in 2020, investors can expect more protracted volatility.

Sonai Desai, Chief Investment Officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income said the U.S. economy is set to do “quite well. I agree there’s a reduced probability of Recession: that’s not our baseline for a while.” If there’s a Republican sweep and broader tariffs measures introduced by Trump, “that might limit the Fed’s appetite for massive rate cuts.”  Her baseline is that even with a Republican sweep, there won’t be a literal imposition of tariffs: that didn’t happen in 2016, so “I don’t think we will get the full range of cross-the-board tariffs.”  Either way, the mighty U.S. consumer will “continue to consume and I don’t see that changing with the Election.”

Clearbridge’s Jeffrey Schulze

In the very long run, of course, any short-term market volatility from elections is likely to be a blip, which is why Franklin Templeton tells clients not to mix investing and politics.

In an analysis released early in October, Clearbridge Investments Head of Economic and Market Strategy Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, showed the following annual returns for the S&P500, all positive for equities no matter which party wins and whether or not they get full control or are in a divided government. Based on that, the best outcomes for investors would be a Democratic president with a Divided Government or Full Control by a Republican president.

“We view a Trump win, likely coming in a sweep scenario, as net positive for equities as it preserves favorable corporate tax treatment and builds on tax elements that expired,” Schulze wrote in the October 1st update, “A Harris win, likely coming with a divided Congress, would be mildly negative due to fewer provisions of expiring tax legislation getting extended due to political gridlock.”

Trump win likely positive for Stocks

“In aggregate, we view a second Trump presidency under a sweep scenario as net positive for equities. The expectation is for a more favorable corporate tax regime and less of a regulatory burden, both of which should boost corporate profits. Conversely, there is the potential for increased tariffs and retaliation from U.S. trade partners … We view U.S. stocks as best placed under Trump, with banks and capital markets, as well as the oil and gas complex, well positioned due to lighter regulation. Aerospace and defense is also likely going to benefit as well as biopharmaceuticals. Areas that could see pressure are restaurants and leisure, due to the less availability of labor, as well as EVs, autos and clean energy producers.”

Harris win might be “mildly negative” for Stocks

A Kamala Harris win would be less positive for U.S. stocks, Schulze writes: “We see a Harris win as mildly negative to equities should she preside over a divided Congress. It will be more of a headwind to the markets should we see a Democratic sweep as she will then be able to implement higher taxes on corporations and high-income individuals, as well as push a more ambitious regulatory agenda. However, tax credits for low-income individuals would provide an offset, creating an economic boost to this segment of the economy.Tighter regulation could weigh on biopharmaceuticals, banks, capital markets, energy as well as mega cap technology. But again, we caution against basing investment or portfolio positioning solely on the regulatory environment. Areas to be bullish about under Harris would be consumer discretionary, specifically restaurants & leisure, home building and building products.”

Generally, Franklin Templeton continues to advocate a “stay the course” stance for investors geared to the long term. The chart below shows that going back to 1944, the U.S. stock market has risen steadily over time regardless of which political party is in the White House.

 

 

Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, acted as Moderator in Wednesday’s webinar, fielding audience questions. He also wrote a U.S. election update earlier this month, headlined “Uncertainty Reigns.”

He concluded back then that the election remains  “too close to call. A divided government in Washington, DC, with no single party controlling the White House, Senate and House of Representatives is likely … Investors should gird themselves for uncertainty and potential bouts of volatility preceding and following election day. It is quite possible that the outcome for the presidency will not be settled until the December 17 certification deadline.”

Dover expects market uncertainty to continue well past November 5th, if not until January’s inauguration of the ultimate winner.”Legal challenges, some of which have already commenced, add to uncertainty. Re-counts, delays and disputes over certification of results, alongside courtroom litigation are virtually assured if state election outcomes are close. Various legal and procedural challenges are likely to endure until at least December 17, which is the deadline for state certification of the presidential election results and the official nomination of state electors to the Congressional certification on January 6, 2025.”

However, Dover says his basic investment conclusions remain unchanged. They are as follows: Continue Reading…

Vanguard S&P 500 is a third of my portfolio

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Vanguard S&P 500

 

By Alain Guillot

Special to Financial Independence Hub

My investment strategy is to buy more every time I have more money. I don’t time the market. I know that investments (on the long run) will eventually go up.

No one knows when the market will tank or when it will rally. So why waste my brain energy trying to stay informed and anticipate, or react to the market? I just buy and buy some more.

When will I sell? Hopefully never, but the second best answer is: When I retire, when I need the money for personal living expenses. In that case, I will just take the money out when I need it, not when the market conditions are right (we never know when the market conditions are right).

Generally I divide my investment in three parts: 1/3 Canadian stocks, 1/3 U.S. stocks, and 1/3 international stocks.

I don’t know how much money I have made since I don’t know how to account for all the dividend payments I have been getting. But it’s a lot.

Investing in the stock market is safest way to invest your money. Yes, there is day to day volatility. If you learn how to ignore the new, the latest development, the latest emergency crisis, the latest election, you will be OK.

Of course, it’s not easy to avoid all the noise. Media companies spend billions of dollars every year finding new ways to capture your attention. The worst part is that “bad news” is a very potent attention-grabbing tool and many people fall victims of it. I have friends who have their money in cash, gold, or silver because the next financial catastrophe is coming. If they only knew how to calculate all the money they have left on the table, it’s worse than any catastrophe they have envisioned.

The bedrock of my U.S. investment is the Canadian dollar Vanguard S&P 500 Index; here is the symbol, VFV. It trades in the Toronto Stock Exchange. My strategy is to buy some more every December.

The Vanguard S&P is a fund that invests in the stocks of some of the largest companies in the United States.

This is a great investment because it’s well diversified and is made up of the stocks of the largest U.S. corporations. These large corporations tend to be stable with a solid record of profitability.

How much money can you earn?

We are not in the business of predicting the future, but here are some of the past results:

Rate of return investing on the S&P 500

As you can see the rate of return for 3 years is 42%, for 5 years is 66%, and for 10 is 304%. This is the best return you can get for your money. This is a great investment opportunity if you have the patience to wait for it.

How to invest in the Vanguard S&P 500

You can buy shared of the S&P 500 as you buy shares of any stock. Continue Reading…

Preparing your Portfolio for Retirement? Income Is so Yesterday

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By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub 

When preparing for retirement, designing your portfolio for income is over-rated. Oh, it feels good bragging about how much money you make each year, but then you also quiver about the taxes you owe each April.

What’s the point?

To make it – then give it back – makes no sense.

In today’s interest rate environment people are being forced to adjust their thinking.

Our approach 3 decades ago

When we retired over 32 years ago, having annual income was not on our minds. Knowing we had decades of life-sans-job ahead of us, we wanted to grow our nest egg to outpace inflation and our spending habits as they changed too. Therefore, we invested fully in the S&P 500 Index.

500 solid, well-managed companies

The S&P Index are 500 of the best-managed companies in the United States.

Our financial plan was based on the idea that these solid companies would survive calamities of all sorts and their values would be expressed in higher future stock prices outpacing inflation. After all, these companies are not going to sell their products at losses. Instead they would raise their prices as needed to cover the expenses of both rising resources and wages, thereby producing profits for their shareholders.

How long has Coca-Cola been around? Well over 100 years and the company went public in 1919 when a bottle of Coke cost five cents.

Inflation cannot take credit for all of their stock price growth as they created markets globally and expanded their product line.

This is just one example of the creativity involved in building the American Dream. The people running Coke had a vision and have executed it through the years. Yes, “New Coke” was a flop as well as others, but the point is that they didn’t stop trying to grow because of a setback.

Coca-Cola is just one illustration of thousands of companies adapting to current trends and expanding with a forward vision.

Look at Elon Musk. He has dreams larger than most of us can imagine.

Sell as needed

Another benefit we have in designing our portfolio in this manner, is that when we sell shares for “income,” they are taxed at a more favorable rate as a long-term capital gain. Dividend output is low, our tax liability is minimal, yet our net worth has grown.

We are in control of our income stream.

Our suggestion is not to base your retirement income on income-producing investments but rather to go for growth. You can always sell a few shares to cover your living expenses.

Money Never Sleeps

Just because you retire, your money doesn’t have to.

In the words of Gordon Gecko from the 1987 movie Wall Street, “money never sleeps.” And your money definitely won’t once you leave your job.

Reading financial articles about what if retirees run out of money, we get the impression that the authors do not understand that once retired, your money can – and should – continue to work for you.

Working smart not hard

Once you walk out of the 9-5 for the last time, that doesn’t mean your investments are frozen at that point. The stock market is still functioning and now your “job” is to become your own personal financial manager. Actually, you should have been doing this all along, but if not, start now.

You need to get control of your expenses by tracking your spending daily, as well as annually. This is so easy – only taking minutes a day – and this will open your eyes as to where your money is going. Not only that, but it will give you great confidence to manage your financial future. Every business tracks expenses and you need to do the same. You are the Chief Financial Officer of your retirement.

The day we retired the S&P 500 index closed at 312.49. This equates to a better than 10% annual return including dividends. We know that we have stated this before, but it’s important.

Chart of S&P Market Returns January, 1991 to September 2022

That’s pretty good for sitting on the beach working on my tan.

Making 10% on our portfolio annually while spending less than 4% of our net worth has allowed our finances to grow, while we continue to run around the globe searching for unique and unusual places.

But what if you’re fifty?

You need to take stock of your assets and determine what your net worth is, with and without the equity in your home. Selling the house and downsizing may be a windfall for you, again utilizing the tax code to your benefit. Continue Reading…

The Long View: Follow the Herd?

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By Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Director, Investment Strategist with ClearBridge Investments, a Specialty Investment Manager of Franklin Templeton

(Sponsor Content)

There are times to follow the herd and there are times to stray away from the pack. Investors must learn this lesson. Sometimes, it can be beneficial to follow a larger group, but there are moments when it can make sense to chart one’s own course. In the early and middle stages of an economic expansion, running with the herd can be a beneficial and safe proposition.

As the U.S. recovery unfolds, some investors may be tempted to break off, worried about the formation of a bubble. Indeed, many investors are concerned that the market may be overheating, based on metrics such as the forward earnings of the S&P 500 Index.

Importantly, an increase in equity multiples is not uncommon during the early stages of an economic expansion. Following recessionary troughs, market returns tend to be driven by price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples during the initial market rally (approximately nine months) as investors anticipate an eventual earnings rebound. As the recovery matures over the subsequent two years, the opposite dynamic occurs, with multiple compressions on the back of stronger earnings growth. Put differently, earnings typically make a significant contribution toward stock returns during this second phase of the rally and declining P/Es become a modest drag on returns (see Exhibit 1 below).

Exhibit 1: Multiples vs. Earnings Data as of Dec. 31, 2020. Source: JP Morgan.

As we move through 2021 and eventually into 2022, we expect this same pattern to unfold; however, multiples may remain elevated.

Higher multiples not uncommon early in Expansion

Valuations are elevated in part because investors correctly sniffed out the budding U.S. economic recovery. Unprecedented stimulus actions (both monetary and fiscal) short-circuited the typical bottoming process, as policymakers formulated a response that rapidly ended the economic crisis and fueled an upturn in financial markets.

ClearBridge Investments has been tracking the scope of this improvement, and we see an overall expansionary green signal since the end of the second quarter of 2020. In our view, it has become clear that a durable U.S. economic and market bottom has formed, with the S&P 500 up 67.9% from the lows and a third-quarter GDP rebound of +33.4%, as of December 2020. Continue Reading…