Tag Archives: stocks

Low-Volatility ETFs for a Volatile World

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Image courtesy Harvest ETFs

By Ambrose O’Callaghan, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

Canadians in retirement, or those nearing retirement, are faced with unique challenges in the present-day market. Interest rates have moved up from their historic lows since 2022. The benchmark rate for the Bank of Canada (BoC) reached its zenith of 5.00% in July 2023. Economic headwinds forced the hand of the BoC in 2024 and 2025. The benchmark rate now stands at 2.75%, with more rate cuts expected before the end of the year. (The BOC stood pat on April 16th).

This downward trend for interest rates means that investors who want a secure investment while outpacing inflation may have to look beyond GICs and other fixed-income products in this changing climate. Market volatility is another headwind investors are now contending with, spurred on by a new and aggressive U.S. administration.

There was enthusiasm surrounding the broader economy and the stock market coming into 2025. The previous GOP administration cultivated a reputation as a market-friendly one in the late 2010s. That momentum ground to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the perception of a market-friendly GOP largely remained.

Investor outlook has soured in the late winter and early spring, in large part due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policy, particularly when it comes to tariffs.

Source: American Association of Individual Investors, Bloomberg, Harvest ETFs. As of March 21, 2025.

This uncertainty has resulted in elevated levels of market volatility. Some names have suffered retracements of 50% or more over the past two months. This market is unique in that the sell-off was not triggered by one significant catalyst. Indeed, it is lingering trade policy uncertainty that is fuelling negative sentiment.

Source: American Association of Individual Investors, CNN (Fear and Greed Index). As of March 20, 2025.

The S&P 500 has dropped 8% in the year-to-date period as of close on Friday, April 10, 2025. A research note from Vanguard recently speculated that volatility was likely to remain due to factors like policy uncertainty, disruptive currents in the economy like artificial intelligence development, and the shifting policy of the Federal Reserve.

Demand for Low Volatility products has increased in this environment. These ETFs offer Canadian retirees a pure low volatility play with exposure to 100% Canadian equities. Moreover, we have introduced Harvest’s trusted option writing strategy to the second Low Volatility ETF. It aims to lower portfolio volatility while generating high monthly cash distributions.

Harvest Low Volatility ETFs:  A smoother Investment Experience

Harvest’s new Low Volatility ETF suite could be appealing to defensive and long-term investors. This approach to equity investing is factor-based, disciplined, outcome-oriented, is designed to mitigate risk, as well as provide long-term growth. Moreover, the suite includes a high-income solution that generates monthly cash distributions through an active covered call writing strategy. Continue Reading…

Coping with Market Smackdowns

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Hey Everyone,

Welcome to some new Weekend Reading, the market smackdown edition.

In case you missed any recent posts, here they are!

Before I started semi-retirement/part-time work this month, I shared some big retirement mistakes I hope to avoid in the coming years.

After reading about a 23-year-old athlete earning $2 million, I wondered if he was “set for life”?

And finally, I shared our latest dividend income update below – despite the stock market going down our income stream went up! Continue Reading…

Extremes breed Opposites

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Darling, I don’t know
Why I go to extremes
Too high or too low
There ain’t no in-betweens
And if I stand or I fall
It’s all or nothing at all
Darling, I don’t know
Why I go to extremes

 

  • I Go to Extremes, by Billy Joel
Image Shutterstock, courtesy of Outcome

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The stock market crash of 1929, which was followed by the Great Depression, was arguably the best thing to happen to investors in the history of modern markets.

I am in no way suggesting that investors took pleasure in having their life savings largely obliterated, nor am I implying that bear markets are enjoyable. However, the tremendous pain that people experienced left them with a deep distrust of stocks that lasted for decades. It was this wariness that kept valuations in check, thereby paving the way for strong returns.

Both the passage of time and rising markets eventually led investors to relinquish their pessimism. Eventually, acceptance morphed into adulation, the widespread view that stocks harbored no risk, and an “it can only go up” mindset that culminated in the late 1990s tech bubble. This excessive optimism caused valuations to become untethered from reality, with the S&P 500 Index reaching its highest valuation in history and huge market capitalizations being awarded to companies with little or no earnings.

The irrational enthusiasm which created and propelled one of the greatest bubbles in modern history also set the stage for its ultimate demise in the form of a painfully long and deep bear market. Over shorter periods, fear can result in missed opportunities and regret while greed may get rewarded. However, over the long term, starting points of excessive pessimism set the stage for healthy markets while starting points of excessive optimism pave the way for disappointment. This observation is captured in the following graph, which clearly demonstrates that higher starting valuations lead to lower returns, and vice versa.

S&P 500 Index: PE Ratio vs. 10-Year Annualized Returns

 

 

 

This relationship brings to mind the following guiding principles of legendary investor Howard Marks:

  • It’s not what you buy, it’s what you pay that counts.  
  • Good investing doesn’t come from buying good things, but from buying things well.  
  • There’s no asset so good that it can’t become overpriced and thus dangerous, and there are few assets that are so bad that they can’t get cheap enough to be a bargain.  
  • The riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there’s no risk.

Forget Forecasting: Context is Everything

I know that booms, recessions, bull markets, and bear markets have happened and that they will happen. Where I run into trouble is knowing when they will happen. I am in good company when it comes to this deficiency, as economic forecasting has by and large proven to be an exercise in futility. As famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith stated, “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”.

Given that predicting when changes in economic conditions will occur is a fool’s errand, investors should instead concern themselves with how markets will react if they occur. Importantly the same change can have a vastly different effect on markets depending on where valuations stand. Specifically, stock market multiples can be a gauge of the extent to which prices will decline in reaction to an adverse shift in the economic backdrop. Continue Reading…

How to stay calm and Invest confidently amid Stock Market Fluctuations

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Letting unnecessary stock market worries take hold of your investment decisions can lead to much bigger problems than just finding stocks to buy

TSInetwork.ca

Our early ancestors had to be on guard against threats in their environment. They were under constant threat. At night, if you woke to every sound from the bushes, you lost some sleep, but you cut your risk of being eaten by a lion or killed by an enemy. Today we face much less risk from animal predators and human marauders. But many people still carry this hair-trigger fear response. We spend more time than we should worrying about things that will never happen. This includes stock market worries.

That’s especially true of investors, who generally think more about the future than other people. It’s true all the more of subscribers to our newsletters and members of my Inner Circle service.

Understand stock market worries and risk so you can put everything in perspective

That’s because many of you are the kind of people who seek out investment information from a variety of written sources, where it’s much more extensive and detailed than what you get from a glance at the headlines, the evening news or cable TV. However, some of that information is biased, overblown or incorrect.

This doesn’t mean you should ignore potential threats. You just need to put them in perspective.

Learn what experienced investors do about common stock market worries

There is never a shortage of ways to ease your stock market worries. “You never go broke taking a profit,” is a favourite of brokers I’ve met over the years. They used them to spur their clients to do more trades, to boost their own commission income.

Our view now is that stocks are still a good place for your money, if you can afford to stay invested for several years. If you expect you will need to take money out of your portfolio, you should think about selling sooner than you need to.

Look beyond immediate stock market movements to help reduce your anxiety and stock market worries

Stock market trends are the general direction in which the stock market is heading. These market trends are dictated by a number of factors: what sector investors favour at the moment, economic and world news, interest rates and other trends from industries such as technology or resources, and so on. These trends could be positive or negative, and they could lead to a huge boom for a stock market. They could also lead to a big downturn. Continue Reading…

Betting on Markets being Wrong: Don’t take those Odds

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Capitalizing on Market Mispricing is Easier Said than Done

Canva Custom Creation/Lowrie Financial

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to Financial Independence Hub

A common refrain in investing is that news and expectations are already “priced in.”

I often say this publicly and in individual client meetings. When clients are concerned about changes in the market and want to act on what they are hearing, I remind them that the market is ahead of the media rumblings and that snap financial decisions tend to sabotage positive financial outcomes.

So, it is much better to hold firm with your investment strategy, which should be based on a sound financial plan, rather than reactively sell, because those who react are most likely reacting too late.

And I’m not just guessing. I’m advising based on my experience and deep understanding of how markets work. The reality is that those who stay disciplined see much better performance than those who try to bet on market mispricing and make changes.

“Priced In” vs. Market Mispricing

How does the “priced in” concept apply in real-world market scenarios?

Take a recent client meeting, for example. It was March 3rd, the same day U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the 25% tariffs were officially moving forward on March 4th. My client asked,

“If the market is so efficient, how is it that stocks dropped 2% after the news broke? Shouldn’t that have already been priced in?”

When something is “priced in,” it means the market has already adjusted asset prices based on available information. Markets are forward-looking, incorporating not only what is known but also expectations about the future. In the case of the tariffs, if there had been a 100% certainty that a sweeping 25% tariff would be announced, the 2% drop would have already occurred beforehand. The fact that the market reacted afterward suggests that the market collectively expected some form of tariffs: but not a 25% hit across-the-board.

Similarly, consider a corporation’s earnings report. If a company is expected to post strong results, its stock may rise in advance as traders anticipate good news. But when the earnings are released and match expectations, the stock might barely move: because the market had already priced it in. Conversely, if expectations were too high, the stock could even fall despite good results. The paradox? A company can report strong earnings, yet its stock price still drops.

So, the question “Shouldn’t that have already been priced in?” is the wrong question to ask, as usually the underlying theory is “Everyone has been expecting this, I should have sold (or bought) the moment I heard about this coming!” The correct question to ask is “If I am assuming or betting on the markets being wrong, can I consistently and systematically profit from this?”

The answer to that question is a resounding “No – the vast majority of people can’t.” The reality is that reliably predicting the market in advance and capitalizing on it is not as easy as it seems – otherwise everyone would be a winner, and no one would lose – and we know that’s not what is happening.

Charlie D. Ellis, a renowned investment consultant, illustrated this perfectly in his book “Winning the Loser’s Game.” Risk-taking investors are like amateur tennis players; they try to make big plays but make lots of mistakes, so they ultimately lose. Whereas successful investors are like professional tennis players; they focus on being confident in their game and not making errors; instead, they exploit the errors of their opponents. So, it’s important to think about who is on the other side of the net, as it relates to investing. Investors who attempt to outmaneuver the market are playing against an unknown and faceless opponent.  In reality, the opponent is most likely a professional or institutional investor, who is highly educated and experienced and have a variety of technical tools and super computers to help them.

Quite often, I or my clients hear some anecdotal story of  a friend of theirs who sold at the right time or bought at the right time because they anticipated a change in the market. The truth is that if when someone takes a risk and wins, it is glorified: both in the media and in discussions by the water cooler. No one ever hears about those that lose. That’s not because they don’t exist; the losers far outnumber the winners. You don’t hear about them because, unlike the proud winners, the losers are scuttling away quietly with their tails tucked between their legs. I wrote about this phenomenon in my recent blog, “Real Life Investment Strategies #6: Beware the Risk of the Cult Stock Roller Coaster.”

Uncertainty and the Role of Spreads in Sports Betting

The idea of pricing in information isn’t unique to financial markets: it’s also central to sports betting. Bookmakers set point spreads based on team performance, injuries, betting trends, and even public sentiment.

Imagine a hypothetical hockey game between a professional NHL team and a top junior team. Some of the junior players might eventually make it to the NHL, but right now, the talent gap is massive. If you had to bet on the outcome, the NHL team winning is almost a certainty. But oddsmakers don’t just offer a simple win/lose bet: they set a goal spread to even things out.

Let’s say the spread is 20 goals. That means for a bet on the NHL team to pay out, they must win by at least 20 goals. This is where market efficiency comes in. If the spread were too low — say, 5 goals — everyone would bet on the NHL team, forcing bookmakers to adjust the line. If the spread were too high — say, 30 goals — more bets would come in on the junior team. The goal spread balances betting interest, just like stock prices adjust to reflect available information. Continue Reading…