Ignore stock market anxiety and negative stock predictions and instead focus your investing strategy on diversification and portfolio balance
Image by Pexels/Markus Spiske
The current state of the world is generating stock market anxiety, as it often does. My guess is that the Israel-Hamas war is just getting started and will last a long time. I also suspect that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had something to do with getting it started, and will do what he can to keep it going. After all, when it comes to running his country, Putin takes a grasping-at-straws approach.
Putin may think that bringing the longstanding Mideast conflict back into the headlines is going to improve his chances of conquering Ukraine and bringing the Soviet Union back from the dead.
He thinks taking a long shot is better than no shot at all. Who knows? He might get lucky.
Early on in his war on Ukraine, Putin seemed to think that Chinese dictator Xi Jinping was going to take pity on him and his country, and offer free money and/or weapons to shore up Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Instead, Xi insists on staying out of the war, while paying discount prices for Russian oil. He takes special care not to let his country get caught up in the economic sanctions that the U.S. and NATO countries and allies are directing against the Russians.
It’s not that Putin is stupid. If a war between Israel and Hamas turns out to be a big drain on the U.S. budget, the U.S. might have less money available to arm Ukraine.
Up till lately, however, Israel has had little to say about Russia’s treatment of Ukraine. Israel may soon take a more active role in helping Ukraine defend itself.
Any war is a terrible thing, and this one is no different. The stock market seems to be creeping upward. Maybe it knows something that Putin hasn’t figured out.
Meanwhile, if your stock portfolio makes sense to you, we advise against selling due to Mideast fears.
Stock market anxiety recedes with investment quality, diversification and portfolio balance
You’ll find that many of your worries concern things that are unlikely to happen; that are already largely discounted in current stock prices; and that probably won’t matter as much as you feared they would.
You get a much better return on time spent if you devote less of it to worrying about high-risk investments, and more of it to an investing strategy. Create a strategy that is built upon analyzing the quality and diversification of your investments, and the structure and balance of your portfolio.
There’s another advantage as well. A calm investor is much less likely to react in haste and make sudden decisions that could prove to be damaging in the long run. Continue Reading…
The year 2024 started in a similar fashion as 2023. The mega-cap-concentrated technology sector fuelled positive upward momentum.
Economic data slowed in the first quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, relatively defensive areas benefited through the spring months and again through the end of the summer season as recession concerns resurfaced ahead of the first interest rate cut in August.
How a “soft landing” has impacted the market
Equities and bonds continued to be very sensitive to the day-over-day economic data points. In another period these data points might have less impact on the behaviour of individual stocks and bonds. The chart below illustrates the dramatic shift in earnings growth expectations from 2022 through to the first quarter of 2026. Market and investor sentiment has improved as the US Federal Reserve has seemingly been able to orchestrate a “soft landing.”
Source: Bloomberg, January 10, 2025.
The ability of the Fed to produce a “soft landing” in 2024 was reflected in the meaningful uptick in earnings expectations for the entire market. Previously, the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla) has been the driving force, outshining the broader market.
Through November 2024, the stock market rejoiced the certainty of the coming Republican administration. It continued to rally hard through to the end of November with nearly every sub-sector up over 10%.
Source: Harvest Portfolios Group, Inc. January 2025.
Transitioning from 2024 to 2025
The month of December 2024 closed as only the third negative month of that calendar year. Factors like tax loss selling, volume voids, and policy rhetoric compounded to contribute to the decline in the final month of the previous year. Regardless, the broader markets finished in the black for the second year in a row with a 20% upward movement. That rate of increase is a rarity over the past 40 years. That said, the strong move upward does not mean a correction is more likely to occur in 2025. Continue Reading…
Navigating the unpredictable waters of dividend stocks requires a steady hand and a well-informed strategy. To help you master the art of managing volatility and work toward Financial Independence, seven seasoned business leaders share their invaluable advice. From adopting a long-term perspective to assessing the fundamentals of dividend stocks, these insights are grounded in real-world experience. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this article delivers practical strategies from top professionals to strengthen your investment approach and achieve sustained success.
Focus on Long-Term Perspective
Track Dividend Payout Ratios
Maintain a Cash Cushion
Diversify Across Multiple Sectors
Stay the Course
Reinvest Dividends Automatically
Check Dividend Stock Fundamentals
During periods of volatility, I focus on maintaining a long-term perspective with dividend stocks and ensuring that the underlying companies have strong fundamentals. I recommend prioritizing dividend growth over just high yields, as companies with a history of increasing dividends, even in turbulent times, tend to be more resilient. One specific piece of advice I offer is to avoid panic selling when the market dips. Instead, consider reinvesting dividends or using the volatility as an opportunity to acquire shares at a lower price, provided the company’s outlook remains strong. This strategy allows you to take advantage of market fluctuations while staying focused on the long-term growth potential of the dividend stream. — Peter Reagan, Financial Market Strategist, Birch Gold Group
Track Dividend Payout Ratios
I discovered that tracking dividend payout ratios has been crucial during market swings: I specifically look for companies maintaining ratios below 75% even in tough times. Just last quarter, when the market got shaky, I held onto Procter & Gamble despite price drops because their steady 60% payout ratio showed they could sustain dividends through the volatility. — Adam Garcia, Founder, The Stock Dork
Maintain a Cash Cushion
As a financial expert, I’ve learned that the best defense during volatile periods is maintaining a cash cushion equal to about 2-3 years of living expenses alongside my dividend stocks. Last month, this strategy helped me stay calm when one of my core holdings dropped 15%: instead of panic-selling, I actually bought more shares at a discount because I knew my basic needs were covered. — Jonathan Gerber, President, RVW Wealth
Diversify across Multiple Sectors
As a financial advisor specializing in income investments, I understand that periods of market volatility can be unsettling: especially for dividend investors who rely on steady income. However, my approach is centered on maintaining a long-term perspective and staying disciplined with my strategy. Here’s how I handle volatility in my dividend stock portfolio:
In volatile markets, it’s easy to get caught up in short-term price swings. However, I prioritize the fundamentals of the companies I invest in. Are they consistently generating revenue and profits? Are they able to maintain their dividend payouts, even if the stock price fluctuates? Companies with a history of stable earnings and reliable dividend payments are generally better equipped to withstand market downturns.
During times of volatility, I make sure my dividend stocks are well-diversified across multiple sectors. Some sectors—such as utilities and consumer staples—are typically more stable during economic downturns. Diversification helps mitigate the risk that a downturn in one sector will significantly impact my overall income stream. Continue Reading…
Just as I thought it was going alright I found out I’m wrong when I thought I was right It’s always the same, it’s just a shame, that’s all I could say day and you’d say night Tell me it’s black when I know that it’s white Always the same, it’s just a shame, and that’s all
— That’s All, by Genesis
Shutterstock/Outcome
By Noah Solomon
Special to Financial Independence Hub
As we enter 2025, the general consensus is that stocks are set to deliver another year of decent returns. Most strategists contend that we will be in a goldilocks environment characterized by positive readings on economic growth, profits, inflation, and rates.
This sentiment is particularly evident in the current valuation level of the S&P 500 Index. Regardless of which metric one uses, the index is extremely elevated relative to its historical range. Interestingly, U.S. stocks are an outlier when compared to other major markets (including Canada), which are trading at valuations that are in line with historical averages.
The Best of Times and the Worst of Times
Unfortunately, the history books are quite clear about what can happen to markets that attain peak valuations. The four largest debacles in the history of modern markets were all preceded by peak valuations.
In 1929, the U.S stock market traded at the highest PE multiple in its history up to that time. This lofty multiple presaged the worst 10 years in the history of the U.S. stock market.
In 1989, the Japanese stock market was trading at 65 times earnings. The aggregate value of Japanese stocks exceeded that of U.S. stocks despite the fact that the U.S. economy was three times the size of its Japanese counterpart. Soon after, things went from sensational to miserable, with Japanese stocks suffering a particularly prolonged and steep decline.
In early 2000, the S&P 500 Index, aided and abetted by a tremendous bubble in technology, media, and telecom stocks, reached the highest multiple in its history. Not long thereafter, the index suffered a peak trough decline of roughly 50% over the next few years.
In early 2008, the S&P 500 stood at its highest valuation in history, with the exception of the multiples that preceded the Great Depression and the tech wreck. The ensuing debacle brought the global economy to the brink of collapse and required an unprecedented amount of monetary stimulus and government bailouts.
The bottom line is that markets have historically been a very poor predictor of the future. At times when asset prices were most convinced of heaven, they could not have been more wrong. The loftiest valuations have not merely been followed by tough times, but by the worst of times. Time and gain, peak multiples have foreshadowed the worst results, which brings to mind one of my favorite quotes from John Kenneth Galbraith:
“There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.”
The Common Feature
There is one common feature to these sorrowful tales of peak multiples which ended in tears. In each case, peak valuations followed a prolonged period of near-perfect environments characterized by strong economic and profit growth unmarred by any obvious clouds on the horizon.
The years preceding the Great Depression entailed an economy that had not merely been growing but booming.
Prior to 1989, the Japanese economy enjoyed decades of torrid growth, prompting some economists and strategists to predict that it would eventually eclipse the U.S. economy.
In early 2008, the U.S. economy was being propelled by a real estate bubble underpinned by an “it can only go up” mindset and a related explosion in lax credit and lending standards.
The S&P 500 Index currently stands at its highest multiple in the postwar era, save for the late 1990s tech bubble. Optimists justify this development by pointing to what they believe to be a rosy future with respect to the U.S. economy, earnings, inflation, and interest rates. Sound familiar?
I’m not saying that highly elevated multiples necessarily foreshadow imminent doom. However, when juxtaposing the current valuation of the S&P 500 with historical experience, one should consider becoming more defensive. As famous philosopher George Santayana stated, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Driving without Airbags or Seatbelts
The underlying cause of the aforementioned market crashes is not merely economies and profits that were contracting, but that asset prices were priced for exactly the opposite. This left markets woefully exposed when the proverbial music stopped.
Think of market risk like you think about driving a car. If you are driving a car with airbags and you are wearing a seatbelt, then chances are you will emerge with minimal or no injuries if you get into an accident. However, if your car has no airbags and you are not wearing a seatbelt, then the chances that you will sustain serious injuries (or worse) are materially higher. Similarly, when multiples are at or below average levels and profits hit a rough patch, the resulting carnage in asset prices tends to be muted. Conversely, if any financial bumps in the road occur when valuations lie significantly higher than historical averages, then the ensuing losses will be much more severe. Also, even if you manage to complete your journey without any mishaps, it’s not clear that having no airbags and not wearing a seatbelt made your ride much more enjoyable or comfortable than if this had not been the case. Continue Reading…
Here’s a Look at the Best Investments to Hold in a TFSA – and Why
Image via Deposit Photos
We recently had a question from a member of Pat McKeough’s Inner Circle that asked:
“Pat, I hold Intel in a non-registered account with a capital loss showing and am thinking of transferring it to my TFSA “in kind” with no tax penalty. Is Intel a suitable stock to hold in a TFSA?”
We’re not tax experts, so you might want to consider talking to an expert, especially if there are large funds involved.
However, transferring shares in kind into a TFSA does trigger a capital gain or loss for income tax purposes.
If the investment is in a capital gains position, you will have to declare it as a capital gain on your income tax return. But if there is a capital loss, you will not be able to declare the loss for tax purposes. This is because the government still sees you as the beneficial owner of the security.
Note that if you sell the shares in a non-registered account, you can deduct your loss against capital gains. For example, if he were to sell his Intel shares in 2023, he’d get to deduct the loss against his 2023 capital gains.
If you still have capital losses left over, you can carry them back up to three years (2022, 2021 and 2020), or forward indefinitely to offset future capital gains.
Hold Lower-Risk Investments in a TFSA
We think it is best to hold lower-risk investments (such as blue-chip stocks we see as buys like Intel) in your TFSA. That’s because you don’t want to suffer big losses in these accounts. If you do, you can’t use those losses to offset capital gains, as is the case with taxable (non-registered) accounts. You’ll also lose the main advantage of a TFSA: sheltering gains from tax. You won’t have gains to shelter if the value of your investments falls. Continue Reading…
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