Tag Archives: stocks

Investing Advice to follow in the Midst of Two Wars

Posted By |

Investing advice when Putin’s at war against Ukraine. Plus, Putin and the Israel-Hamas War

Deposit Photos

Russia launched the war in 2014, during the second Obama term, when it invaded Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. At the time, the U.S. and NATO were still unsure about how to react to Russia’s aggression toward its former possessions. Many observers felt Russia was just trying to retrieve some of the stature it lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it expected Ukraine to collapse right away (the way France collapsed under the 1940 German invasion, say). The U.S. and other observers feared/expected the same. They still began sending security aid to Ukraine before the invasion. They also used threats of trade and financial sanctions to try to scare Russia off. These steps failed. However, Ukraine fought back surprisingly well and attracted additional aid from the West.

Putin soon saw that he had guessed wrong. But he assumed the West would quickly lose interest. Instead, the West stepped up its aid. Russia then began a series of veiled threats of military escalation, all the way up to tactical nuclear weapons.

My sense is that after its initial stumble, Russia still hoped/believed that if it kept up the military pressure and escalation/nuclear threats long enough, Ukraine and its supporters would agree to a lengthy ceasefire that would work in Russia’s favour.

It seemed to me and many other people that this was unlikely. In April of that year, I wrote that “Russia could launch a nuclear war, but it would find itself fighting against most of the advanced countries of the world. Putin is vain and may be deranged, but he isn’t stupid.”

Later I voiced the off-the-cuff view that any nuclear attack on Ukraine would spark a much more lethal response from NATO forces, which vastly outnumber Russia’s.

Just recently I came across the actual NATO-versus-Russia figures (below) from veteran Toronto journalist Diane Francis, writing in her Substack.com publication. (Note: her chart refers to a Military Asset as a “Characteristic.”)

Military Asset Comparison Between NATO and Russia

Source: dianefrancis.substack.com

The numbers show an even greater numerical advantage for NATO than I imagined. That’s just the start.

The West is also way ahead of Russia in technology, sanctions, finances, morale, global support and pretty much anything else. Russia’s main advantage in war is its ruthlessness in throwing untrained soldiers — mostly from prisons or Russian-speaking racial/cultural minorities — onto the front lines, until the other side runs out of ammunition.

Putin can only hope that Biden or a successor loses his grip and abruptly pulls out of Ukraine the way the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan in August 2021, after two decades of hostilities.

As the sarcastic one-liner goes, that’s not likely.

Nobody can predict these things, of course. My sense is that we are seeing the last gasps of Europe’s last empire. I’d guess the outcome won’t be pretty or quick, but it may turn out to be a historical milestone. A worldwide swing back toward democracy and away from authoritarianism just might follow.

Putin and the Israel-Hamas War

My guess is that the Israel-Hamas war is just getting started and will last a long time. I also suspect that Putin had something to do with getting it started, and will do what he can to keep it going. After all, when it comes to running his country, Putin takes a grasping-at-straws approach.

Putin may think that bringing the longstanding Mideast conflict back into the headlines is going to improve his chances of conquering Ukraine and bringing the Soviet Union back from the dead.

He thinks taking a long shot is better than no shot at all. Who knows? He might get lucky.

Early on in his war on Ukraine, Putin seemed to think that Chinese dictator Xi Jinping was going to take pity on him and his country, and offer free money and/or weapons to shore up Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Instead, Xi insists on staying out of the war, while paying discount prices for Russian oil. He takes special care not to let his country get caught up in the economic sanctions that the U.S. and NATO countries and allies are directing against the Russians.

It’s not that Putin is stupid. If a war between Israel and Hamas turns out to be a big drain on the U.S. budget, the U.S. might have less money available to arm Ukraine.

Up until lately, however, Israel has had little to say about Russia’s treatment of Ukraine. Israel may soon take a more active role in helping Ukraine defend itself.

Any war is a terrible thing, and this one is no different. Meanwhile, the stock market seems to be creeping upward. Maybe it knows something that Putin hasn’t figured out. If you’re looking for investing advice related to the wars around us, spend more time learning about the wars themselves.

Meantime, if your stock portfolio made sense to you a week or two ago, we advise against selling due to Mideast fears

No matter what the state of the world, here are three rules you can follow for maximum portfolio success:

Rule #1: Invest mainly in well-established, profitable, dividend-paying stocks.

Our first rule will help you stay out of high-risk, low-quality investments. These investments are always available, in good and bad markets. They come with hidden risks due to conflicts of interest and other negatives. Every year, they lead many inexperienced investors to substantial losses. Continue Reading…

Index Investing and the S&P 500

Posted By |
Image BMO ETFs/Getty Images

By Chris McHaney, CFA

(Sponsor Blog)

Index investing, a strategy adopted by cost-conscious investors and passive investing aficionados, is continuing to gain in popularity across individual investors, advisors and institutions alike.

The S&P 500 Index is widely regarded as a gauge of the overall large-cap U.S. equities market. The index, which dates back to the 1920s, includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.1  Other popular indices for U.S. equities include the Dow Jones Industrial Average (covering a smaller number of companies: ~30), and the Nasdaq 100 Index (tracking the largest 100 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market).

ETFs make index investing more efficient, helping investors save time and money relative to holding all the constituents of their favorite market index. Take the S&P 500, for example. Not only would you need to buy 500 companies, you would need to make sure they maintain the appropriate weight in the portfolio over time: requiring a lot of time, and money in trading those securities.

ETF units are primarily bought and sold between different investors. This means there are typically fewer realizations of capital gains and losses with ETFs than with other investment products. Similarly, as passive ETFs track the performance of a specific benchmark, they tend to have lower overall portfolio turnover. Fewer transactions within the ETF again means fewer realizations of capital gains and losses that may flow through to ETF holders.

Investing in the S&P 500 Index has been made simple with ZSP2 – BMO S&P 500 Index ETF.  Also available in hedged and USD (ZUE/ZSP.U)2, these ETFs give you exposure to this broad market index at a low cost of 0.09% 6(MER – Management Expense Ratio) and can be used as a core in your portfolio.  Index based ETFs like ZSP provide broad market exposure and diversification across various sectors and asset classes according to their underlying index. It’s not about timing the market with index-based ETFs, it’s about time in the market and these solutions provide a long-term strategy for investors.

What does the research show?

Another reason index-based investing is becoming a staple in investors’ portfolios is the increase in available research showing passive outperforming active over the long term. The best known of this research, the SPIVA report, which coming from S&P Dow Jones Indexes research division has been looking at this phenomenon for 20 years, measuring actively managed funds, against their index benchmarks worldwide.

Looking at the data as of Dec 31st 2023, and focusing on Canadian Equity Funds, 96.63% of active fund managers underperform the S&P/TSX Composite over 10 years.  Put another way just 3.37% of funds outperformed the S&P/TSX composite over that time period.3 This research holds across time periods and geographies, with the numbers changing year to year but the story remaining compellingly in favor of passive. While there are active managers that out-perform their benchmark, this can be challenging to do consistently over time, even for the professionals.

Innovation in Index Investing

“Losses loom larger than gains.” – Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversk4

Famed researchers in behavioural finance, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, once hypothesized the psychological pain of loss is about twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining. After strong performances from U.S. stocks over the past two quarters, some may find themselves dusting off the pair’s work and asking, is now the time to lock in gains and take some downside insurance?

We have seen a remarkable run from stocks such as Nvidia, lifting the S&P 500 Index to all-time highs. This may cause some valuation concerns among investors. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio9(P/E) of about 25 times, which from a historical perspective can be considered rich relative to the average of 17.5 Continue Reading…

Dividend ETFs: Finding Stability and Growth in Income Investments

Posted By |

Discover the Keys to Identifying Dividend ETFs that offer Consistency, Quality, and Long-Term Growth

Image from Pexels/Anna Nekrashevich

Higher interest rates mean dividend-paying stocks must increasingly compete with fixed-income investments for investor interest. However, sustainable dividends still offer an
attractive and growing income stream for investors.

Companies that pay regular and growing dividends have performed very well over the long run when compared to the broad market indices. For example, a simple strategy such as selecting stocks with an extended history of uninterrupted dividend growth, such as represented by the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats, has added 11.5% per year over the past 30 years. This compares to the 10.0% annual gain for the S&P 500 Index. And not only did the dividend payers beat the overall market, but they were also less volatile.

The superior long-term performance of the dividend growth companies can be attributed to a combination of several factors: Companies with long histories of regular and growing dividend payments generally have sound competitive business models and growing profits; these are also companies with experienced managements that make disciplined capital allocation decisions, strive for lower debt levels, and operate firms more profitable than their peers.

Notably, though, the Dividend Aristocrats’ performance lagged over the past 5 years against the S&P 500 index.

Most of this underperformance came over the last year and a half, as higher interest rates made fixed-income investments, such as GICs, more attractive for income-seeking investors when compared to dividend-paying equities.

The dividend sweet spot

Income-seeking investors who decide to take on the risk of the stock markets are faced with a wide range of options including “yield enhanced” dividend-paying ETFs, moderate-yielding companies with average growth rates, and low-yielding but fast-growing companies. Then there is also the group of companies that have very high dividend yields and may seem attractive but, unfortunately, come with elevated risk.

In many cases, a high yield may be a warning sign that all is not well with a company and that future dividend payments are at risk of being cut.

As well, a dividend cut, or even an outright dividend suspension, is often accompanied by a steep decline in the share price, as income investors dump their former dividend favourites.

A 2016 study by a group of U.S.-based academics provides some statistical guidelines for sensible dividend-based investing.

In reviewing the performance of almost 4,000 U.S. companies over 50 years, they found that dividend-paying stocks beat non-dividend payers.

In particular, the middle group of dividend yielders (i.e., those with an average yield of 4.3%) surpassed both the low yielders and the high yielders in terms of total return. Equally important, this superior performance was achieved with lower risk, as measured by the standard deviation of returns.

Based on this long-term study, it makes sense to avoid the highest-yielding stocks and rather look for companies with moderate yields and sound growth prospects. This safety-first approach will result in a lower yield but likely provide a better total return (dividends plus capital) at lower risk.

How to spot dividend ETFs worth investing in

When investing in dividend-paying companies through an ETF, here are key factors to consider: Continue Reading…

The first $100,000 is the hardest

Posted By |

By Alain Guillot

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Here is a quote by Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s business partner.

“The first $100,000 is a bitch, but you gotta do it. I don’t care what you have to do — if it means walking everywhere and not eating anything that wasn’t purchased with a coupon, find a way to get your hands on $100,000. After that, you can ease off the gas a little bit.”

Right now, my portfolio is over $500,000 but the first $100,000 were the most difficult to get because, of course, I started with $0, in a foreign country (Canada), with no family connections, no intergenerational wealth, no nothing.

Since I arrived in Canada, I have been a janitor, a busboy, a waiter, an Uber driver, a cleaner, a dance teacher, an insurance salesman, a photographer, and a website designer.

If you are a low earner, like me, you can only save $100,000 through a lot of discipline, sacrifices, perseverance, and the right mindset.

Most people, even those earning $100K per year, will never accumulate this amount of money. I feel extremely privileged to have arrived and surpassed this milestone.

I am the kind of person who believes that wealth is available to all of us and if we want it, all you have to do is to reach out and get it.

My biggest teacher in almost any entrepreneurial endeavour has been YouTube. My college education was not a complete waste, I get to go around and tell people that I have a college education, but for any practical purpose, it was useless.

You don’t need a fancy degree from any college to build wealth. Even now, I am teaching myself website design via YouTube.

Having the goal of saving $100K

Goals can also help to look toward the future and keep saving efforts in check. The more money you can save, either from reduced expenses or increased income, the faster you can move toward accumulating your first $100,000. And once you do that, the way to the next $100,000 becomes easier.

Having the right mindset

To save $100K you need to train your mind. Keeping your particular goal in mind can help, but you also need to understand how to achieve your goal with a plan.

Getting to $100,000 requires three elements:

  • save more
  • earn more
  • invest in stocks

Tips to save more Continue Reading…

Stocks for the Long Run: Review of 6th edition

Posted By |
Amazon.ca

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Jeremy Siegel recently wrote, with Jeremy Schwartz, the sixth edition of his popular book, Stocks for the long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies. 

I read the fifth edition nearly a decade ago, and because the book is good enough to reread, this sixth edition gave me the perfect opportunity to read it again.

I won’t repeat comments from my first review.  I’ll stick to material that either I chose not to comment on earlier, or is new in this edition.

Bonds and Inflation

“Yale economist Irving Fisher” has had a “long-held belief that bonds were overrated as safe investments in a world with uncertain inflation.”  Investors learned this lesson the hard way recently as interest rates spiked at a time when long-term bonds paid ultra-low returns.  This created double-digit losses in bond investments, despite the perception that bonds are safe.  Siegel adds “because of the uncertainty of inflation, bonds can be quite risky for long-term investors.”

The lesson here is that inflation-protected bonds offer lower risk, and long-term bonds are riskier than short-term bonds.

Mean Reversion

While stock returns look like a random walk in the short term, Figure 3.2 in the book shows that the long-term volatility of stocks and bonds refutes the random-walk hypothesis.  Over two or three decades, stocks are less risky than the random walk hypothesis would predict, and bonds are riskier.

Professors Robert Stombaugh and Luboš Pástor disagree with this conclusion, claiming that factors such as parameter and model uncertainty make stocks look riskier a priori than they look ex post.  Siegel disagrees with “their analysis because they assume there is a certain, after inflation (i.e., real) risk-free financial instrument that investors can buy to guarantee purchasing power for any date in the future.”  Siegel says that existing securities based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have flaws.  CPI is an imperfect measure of inflation, and there is the possibility that future governments will manipulate CPI. Continue Reading…