Tag Archives: yield

Searching for yield without reaching for risk

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By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

What do almost all major global bond markets have in common thus far in 2019? You guessed it: lower rates. As a result, investors have returned to an environment that could be characterized as “yield challenged” and one that had become all too familiar before last year’s run-up in rates.

Typically, the search for yield comes with added risks as investors either move too far out in duration or lower their credit quality constraints. But what if an investor could enhance yield in their fixed income portfolio while maintaining familiar risk profiles?

Before we focus on a solution, let’s first garner some insights into the Canadian bond market. Similar to the situation south of the border, the Canadian rate outlook going into 2019 was not geared toward a lower rate setting. From a policy perspective, the Bank of Canada (BOC) was projected to continue on its rate hiking path. Prior to the December 2018 U.S. Federal Reserve meeting (the point when expectations began to reveal some change), the implied probability for a BOC rate hike by April was placed around 75% (for those interested, the figure for a rate cut was under 2%). Fast-forward to May 23, and the readings for a rate hike or cut by the end of October are almost split evenly at a little more than 20% each.

CAD 10-Year

CAD 10 Year

How about the Canadian government bond market? As the adjacent graph clearly illustrates, after the 10-Year yield peaked at 2.60% in early October last year, the trend to the downside has been unmistakable. Continue Reading…

The search for yield ahead

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kevin-temp2By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist, WisdomTree

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Unfortunately for fixed income investors, the search for yield remains an ongoing challenge. Without a doubt, a primary culprit behind the historically low-rate backdrop in the U.S. are overseas developments, as developed world sovereign debt yields have been hitting their own new lows throughout the summer.

The low-rate phenomenon does not necessarily have a “center of the universe” aspect to it, either, as yield levels on a global scale are all part of this spectacle. As the graph below clearly illustrates, low sovereign debt yields can be found throughout the G7 group of nations, ranging from Japan and Europe (Germany, France, UK, Italy) to North America (U.S., Canada).

Indeed, as of this writing, the bellwether 10-year maturity ranges from a low of -0.11% in Japan and Germany to a high of only 1.51% here at home. In between, France is barely above the zero threshold, while Canada and Italy post readings around the 1% level. The UK had been the second-highest-yielding sovereign rate, but the recent Brexit fallout has 10-year gilts back into the middle of the pack, making the UK a full-fledged member of the “negative and sub 1%” club.

10-year Treasury Yields

10-yr-Treasury

The reasons behind the current — and more than likely upcoming — environment have been well documented: slow global growth, low inflation, flight-to-quality/event risks and the monetary policy responses associated with these developments.

Continue Reading…