The all-weather portfolio. Ready for almost anything

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Findependence Hub

I recently posted a portfolio concept for the all-weather portfolio for 2022. The idea behind an all-weather portfolio is that it can prosper during periods of sun, rain, storms, hurricanes, earthquakes and tsunamis. Of course, in the above analogy weather serves as a proxy for the economic conditions that might arrive. The all-weather portfolio is ready for most anything.

On Seeking alpha I posted the all-weather portfolio for 2022. The portfolio is designed for U.S. investors, though Canadians can certainly mimic the approach or apply the greater concepts. The big idea of the all-weather portfolio is to hold assets in four buckets. It is an extension of the Permanent Portfolio.

There is a bucket of investment assets ready to thrive no matter what the weather offers (economic conditions). For example, for the last 40 years or so we’ve had favourable weather. Inflation has been low and economic growth has been modest, but positive. We’ve been in a disinflationary environment. Inflation has been low and mostly falling.

The weather has been nice

Stock markets and bond markets perform quite well during these disinflarionary periods.

To view some longer dated returns have a look at the RBC Select Balanced Fund. Of course, you could do better by way of an all-in-one asset allocation ETF.

Stocks have performed quite well over time. That said, investors needed to be armed with some very impressive umbrellas (and risk tolerance) to withstand the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) and the dot-com crash of the early 2000’s. Stock markets declined in spectacular fashion in both of these events.

Given that we were still in the midst of a mostly disinflationary period, bonds did the trick in lowering the volatility of the typical balanced portfolio. Bonds will mostly go up when stocks go down, offering that useful inverse relationship. We can think of bonds as portfolio shock absorbers.

These two major stock market corrections came and went, and we returned to our mostly fair-weather disinflationary times. Modest economic growth returned as well.

And now for something completely different

Yes, the above subhead is referencing a catch phrase made famous by Monty Python’s Flying Circus.

Monty Python’s Flying Circus

The comedy troupe was certainly different. And so is today’s economic environment. We have inflation, real inflation. It might even turn into stagflation when most everything fails for the investor. Stagflation is a period of persistent inflation that is accompanied by economic decline. The worst of all worlds you might say. Some nasty weather.

What works during stagflation or unexpected inflation (persistent inflation above those central bank 2-3% targets)? It’s not stock markets; it’s certainly not bonds. Oooops. That’s the traditional balanced portfolio.

Commodities and energy stocks work. Gold mostly works. And a select few other types of stocks can work as well in inflationary or stagflation periods.

Here’s the performance of XBAL from iShares, a traditional 60% stock to 40% bond mix.

iShares, XBAL Cumulative Performance

The portfolio was down 5.29% in 2022, to the end of March 2022. Global stocks (XEQT.TO) are down by about 4.5% . Bonds (XBB.TO) are down by 7.0%.

Today’s investor is not used to seeing bonds being down more than stocks. Given that we are in an inflationary environment, central banks are raising rates to combat inflation. As rates increase, bond prices (and bond values) go down accordingly. A rising rate environment by design will put the brakes on economic growth, and will hurt bond returns in the process.

Commodities are King!

Commodities are reliable (they show up in every inflationary period) and they are explosive. Offering gains that are many times the rate of inflation. In the chart below, we see gold as the most helpful in the 1970s stagflation environment. Gold did not show up in the other periods of more muted but unexpected inflation. Gold appears to save its usefulness for when inflation is more ‘out of control’.

We see commodities with consistent real returns in all periods of this evaluation.

CPI represents inflation, GSCI is the commodities index. REITs (real estate) and gold also shown

Oil is ‘pretty good’ as well. We see that U.S. stocks delivered negative returns for the period. Canadian stocks offered better returns for the period, but were still not able to muster real returns above the rate of inflation (my calculation as per data from BlackRock).

We see that bonds (Treasuries) were the laggard.


So yes, it’s commodities, gold and energy stocks to battle inflation and stagflation.

Here’s the Purpose Real Asset ETF that holds gold, REITs, commodities and commodity stocks. Year to date, the ETF is up over 20%. You might look to Invesco (DBC) for U.S. dollar accounts. I hold both, along with energy stocks and other materials ETFs.

Google Finance

Canadian energy stocks said ‘hold my beer’.

In the current bought of inflation, commodities, energy and commodity stocks are doing their thing.

What’s next?

Will inflation stick around? Will rising rates or inflation or the ongoing pandemic cause a recession or rolling recessions? Is it possible that we will return to a disinflaionary environment? Most investors and advisors should hope so. Perhaps a period of deflation is on the way. Any of the above are possible, and it’s safe to say we don’t know the future.

Is your portfolio prepared for ‘don’t know’? Likely not.

If we look at mutual fund and ETF holdings, gold and commodities exposure is limited. Advisors mostly laugh at me when I mention gold, commodities or energy stocks. Ditto for most retail investors.

If we get periods of rolling recessions or deflation, the investor with an all-equity or equity-heavy period is most likely not well-positioned. There is more than inflation to consider.

That said, if you are in the accumulation stage, and not within the retirement risk zone, you might consider ignoring all of the above. Stock markets have historically been the most superior growth asset. Over much longer periods, stocks have (mostly) delivered returns well above inflation. Here’s a look at the 20-year rolling returns for U.S. stocks.

  • Nominal = price returns
  • Real = returns after inflation

It is the retiree that needs to protect against changes in economic conditions. Their risk becomes short term – within 5 to 10 years of retirement, and withing the first few years of retirement. The retiree can’t afford heavy losses.

The U.S. all-weather portfolio

Let’s move on to the all-weather potfolio model. Keep in mind, this is not advice. Do your own research and treat this and the entire post as ‘for informational purposes’.

The economic quadrants

Inflation: REITs, Gold, Commodities, Energy stocks, Consumer staples stocks

Stagflation: Gold, Commodities, Energy stocks, REITs, Short term bonds, Healthcare stocks

Deflation: Cash, Gold, Bonds, Consumer staples and Healthcare stocks

Disinflation: Stock markets, Consumer staples and Healthcare stocks, Bonds

The all-weather portfolio for 2022

  • REITs – (RQI) (REET) 5%
  • Commodities (DBC) – 10%
  • Energy equities (IYE) – 5%
  • Gold – 5% (*Bitcoin 2.5%)
  • Short Term Bonds (SHY) -20%
  • Long Term Bonds (TLT) – 15%
  • Stocks – 40%

*you may decide to bolt-on a bitcoin allocation, while keeping your gold allocation. I consider bitcoin to be modern, or digital gold. I’d suggest that to make room for bitcoin, you trim evenly from all of the assets. I have a 5% weighting in bitcoin.

Stocks @ 40% – Global plus defensives

1. (VT) – Global markets – 20%

2. Defensive Stocks – 20%

Consumer Staples (XLP) 10%, Healthcare (IYH) 10%.

In the above you will see that consumer staples and healthcare stocks are in the mix, and doing double or triple. duty. That will allow for greater stock (growth) exposure, but will certainly add to the overall portfolio volatility. Given their defensive stance, staples and healthcare are traditionally less volatile sectors compared to total stock market index funds. They are good assets to hold in market corrections as well.

The Canadian all-weather portfolio

I will be back soon with the Canadian version. As we know, many Canadian self-directed investors love their big-dividend-paying Canadian stocks. That can be put to work with great effect. And given the low and negative real bond yields of the day, using some juicy dividends makes sense as bond substitutes.

Related post: The Beat The TSX Portfolio.

I will organize the stocks by economic quadrant as well and arrange strategically. Stay tuned. I employ my own version of an all-weather portfolio(s). We are up nicely year to date. The portfolios up are over 20% over the last year.

Thanks for reading. We’ll see you in the comment section. Don’t forget to follow this blog, it’s free. Look for that subscribe button and enter your email address.

Cut your fees, get some offers here …

While I do not accept monies for feature blog posts please click here on the mission and ‘how I might get paid’ disclosures. Affiliate partnerships help me pay the bills for this site. That will allow me to keep this site free of ads and easy to read.

You will also earn a break on fees by way of many of those partnership links.

Canada’s top-ranked discount brokerage

Cut the Crap Investing readers can earn a break on fees at Questrade by way of that partnership link.

Here’s Canada’s top-performing Robo Advisor.

I have partnerships with several of the leading Canadian Robo Advisors such as JustwealthBMO Smartfolio ,WealthsimpleNest Wealth and Questwealth from Questrade.

Consider Justwealth for RESP accounts. That is THE option in Canada with target date funds that adjust the risk level as the student approaches the College or University start date.

Our savings accounts

Make your cash work a lot harder at EQ Bank. RRSP and TFSA account savings rates are at 1.25%. You’ll find some higher rates on certain GICs. They now also offer U.S. dollar accounts. They have been awesome.

Our cashback credit card

We make between $60 to $70 every month! And that’s on everyday spending. There are no fees with …

The Tangerine Cash Back Credit Card

Dale Roberts is the Chief Disruptor at A former ad guy and investment advisor, Dale now helps Canadians say goodbye to paying some of the highest investment fees in the world. This blog originally appeared on Dale’s site on Apr. 8, 2022 and is republished on the Hub with his permission.

One thought on “The all-weather portfolio. Ready for almost anything

  1. Keeping up to date with the Market’s various mood swings is very difficult for the DIY investor. Just when I have everything in place, I have to look at changing the balancing act all over again. As a retired investor, keeping the income rolling in with so many changes at once keeps the investor busy reading important opinions such as your information on historical trends. Thank you for the excellent details.

Leave a Reply