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By Dale Roberts, CutTheCrap Investing, Retirement Club
Special to Financial Independence Hub
Schwab’s SCHD is a popular U.S. dividend ETF that has been disappointing investors for a long time. Does that disappointment mean that the fund is going to shine when (if) the AI bubble bursts? And speaking of shining, we’ll take a look at gold. Can it go even higher? Plus, Canada’s most defensive sector ETF has a surprising history of outperformance. And retirees will want to check out the life plan ‘stuff’ in the Sunday Reads.
What to expect from the U.S. stock market over the next 10 years? Not much.
Once again, having lived through it, and invested through it I remember:
The lost decade for U.S. stocks.
Here’s more on Howard Mark’s thoughts: Expensive but not nutty. Howard Marks on U.S. stocks and the one thing investors should be doing right now.
He pointed to a JPMorgan chart from late last year that looked at what an investor’s annual return on average over the next 10 years would be if they had bought S&P 500 at a given price/earnings ratio. The P/E was 23 at the time, meaning that average return would be 2% to minus 2%, he said.
Of course there are other lost decades, such as the Depression era and the stagflation era of the late 60s into the early 8’s. But don’t worry: it was all ‘easily handled by a balanced portfolio with some inflation protection. We call that an all-weather portfolio of course.
Even a 5% allocation to gold during the stagflation era would have allowed you to breeze through the period. Add in oil and gas stocks and yer laughing.
Inflation fighters worked their magic once again in the recent bout of high inflation in 2021 and 2022. Check out: Using defensive sector ETFs for the Canadian retirement portfolio.
That portfolio idea (not advice) uses defensive sectors in concert with dedicated inflation fighters.
Is SCHD well-positioned for a dot.com-like correction?
I’ve penned extensively on the concept that retirees might pay attention to valuation issues and hedge that risk with a U.S. value-oriented holding. We’d continue to hold some U.S. market or U.S. growth, but layer in a value holding. The Schwab Dividend ETF SCHD is a popular choice. What’s up with SCHD? Or what’s down might be the appropriate question.
I offered this post exactly one year ago …
iShares U.S. Quality Dividend ETF is crushing SCHD in 2024.
I created a meaningful position in iShares Quality Dividend ETF XDU-T (Canadian Dollars) as a valuation slant. It outperformed SCHD in 2024 and that continues in 2025. In price terms SCHD is down 1.7% in 2025 while XDU-T is up 4.4%. We might attribute about 2% of that gain to the Canadian currency weakness vs the U.S. Dollar.
The S&P 5oo is up 13.66% in 2025 (as of late October._ The Nasdaq 100, QQQ is up 18.36%. Money continues to flow to growth-oriented stocks in the U.S.
This article on Seeking Alpha (sign up or sub required) suggests that SCHD might be well-positioned if we do get a major correction and rotation to value and quality.
SCHD: Your bet on a cooling AI narrative.
The top 3 sectors for SCHD were leading sectors when the dot com bubble burst …
That chart tracks Energy, Consumer Staples and Healthcare vs Tech.
Who knows, but SCHD’s stubborn decline might be creating even greater value. Here’s an interesting table on sectors and valuation.
In the search for value you might also consider small cap, or mid cap or a classic value index ETF such as iShares VLUE. As I wrote for Findependence Hub, these might be challenging times for recent retirees who do no pay attention to valuation. You’ll find more bubble-bursting ideas in that post 😉
Accumulators with decades to go might ignore the valuation “issue.”
I’m happy with XDU and some of my other U.S. value-oriented stocks. In my U.S. RRSP account, my individual U.S. stock portfolio is up 20.7% in 2025. The core stocks are still driving the bus.
How much could gold shine?
Here’s a fascinating Tweet from Charlie …
Keep in mind that gold’s greatest run/success came during a period of stagflation. Today gold is a safe-haven asset and gains its strength from the rising debts and deficits (fiscal mismanagement) of most developed nations. Even the U.S. Dollar is losing value and gold is a beneficiary of that weakness.
Gold returns by year …
And let’s go for the Charlie hat trick. Stocks love a low-inflation, disinflationary environment. They are a historically a wonderful hedge against the melting ice cubes known as the dollars you hold in your wallet or digital wallet …
America first, Canada second. That’s OK, eh!
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ETF Portfolios / Stock Portfolios / Retirement Strategies / Wealth Creation/ Retirement Club
Dale Roberts is a former advertising writer and creative director and long time index investor. In 2013, he followed his passion to become an investment advisor, and then trainer at Tangerine Investments. He won Advisor of the Year in his first year. He left Tangerine in 2018 to start Cut The Crap Investing, where he helps investors learn how to use ETFs, simple stock portfolio models and Robo Advisors to full advantage in the accumulation stage, and especially in retirement. A ‘hyper-focuser’ Dale has spent thousands of hours studying retirement – from the financial planning aspects to the portfolio models that make it happen. Early in 2025 he co-founded Retirement Club for Canadians, described in this Findependence Hub blog. Keep in mind Dale is not a financial planner. Retirement Club provides ideas and learning for consideration. As we know, self-directed investors are responsible for their own investment decisions. This blog first appeared on his site on Oct. 19, 2025 and is republished here with his permission.
