All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Bonds are back but what did they just say?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Bonds are the adult in the room. And when they speak, we should probably hear them out. This week [late June] bonds went on a tear. What were bonds trying to say? They were listening to the ‘Fed Speak’ in the U.S. that left many confused. Of course, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve Chairman set the overnight rates that affect bond markets and our borrowing costs. It’s an economic lever. Maybe the adults in the room are suggesting that inflation is not a threat? We’ll see deflation in the near future? Or maybe a recession is closer than we think?

Here’s a good barometer for the bond market and economic sentiment – long term U.S. treasuries.

They’ve had a good month (and more) and they had an explosive week. The index ETF was up about 3% over the last two days. Long term treasuries are known as some of the best stock market risk managers. They punch above their weight.

Must read: Bonds are the adult in the room.

Recently I suggested that the stock and bond markets are buying the transitory inflation argument.

And in my most recent MoneySense weekly I had a look at some of the economic data for Canada and the U.S., including that recent Fed Speak and reaction.

Perhaps the bond market is going well beyond saying ‘inflation is transitory’. Let’s have a listen to what a few experts say about this weeks stock and bond activity.

David Rosenberg says look out below.

In a recent Globe and Mail piece Mr. Rosenberg suggested that inflation jitters will turn into deflation fear by year end. (pay wall) Of course bonds like deflation. And that’s one reason why we hold bonds right? Even though almost no one thinks that we could enter a long period of economic contraction and deflation. From Mr. Rosenberg …

“When these temporary disturbances fall out of the data, people are going to be surprised at how low the readings are going to be on these official inflation statistics,” the famed Canadian economist said in an interview Friday.

“I think we’re going to go back to talking about disinflation and deflation [by] the end of the year.”

The boring balanced portfolio is having its way these days. Stocks for growth and bonds for ballast and no-growth scenarios. Readers will know that I am also a fan of covering off inflation as well, you’ll read about that in the new balanced portfolio.

Investing is like a box of chocolates.

To quote Forrest Gump, you just never know what you’re going to get. This past week gave us that big and important reminder. Who would have thought that bond investors would have a such a sweet week? I’m happy to hold long term treasuries and that TLT and the BMO Canadian dollar version in ZTL.

Mike Philbrick at ReSolve Asset Management offered via Twitter …

No one knows the future price of any asset class so diversification is incredibly important as the first line of defense.

And as an example, pick your poison of inflation or deflation or economic shocks of any variety. More from Mike …

Another great example, why making sure investors are always exposed to inflation shocks rather than trying to time it … Money and mindshare piled in recently but all the returns came months before that, when investors were not noticing.

Perhaps there is no real economic growth?

Perhaps the bond markets echo Lance Roberts (no relation), CIO and partner at RIA Advisors, with respect to what is real and sustainable economic growth?

The reason that rates are discounting the current “economic growth” story is that artificial stimulus does not create sustainable organic economic activity.

And on the inflation front from Lance, you can’t create real inflation from artificial growth. From that post …

Yes, we see that word “deflation” again.

Rethinking the 60/40 portfolio?

That has been a hot topic for quite some time given the low yield environment. Many suggest tweaking up your equity exposure to the 70% level or so, if you have the risk tolerance. That was certainly covered in this post on the Horizons one ticket ETFs. Those portfolios employ U.S. Treasuries that help dampen the volatility of increasing equity exposure. Continue Reading…

Navigating Fixed Income Challenges with Flexibility

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By Brian Giuliano

Brandywine Global Investment Management, a specialist investment manager of Franklin Templeton

(Sponsor Content)

Flexibility and adaptability can work to an investor’s advantage in the challenging fixed income markets of 2021. Structural disinflationary trends are now clashing with cyclical inflationary forces in a global economy struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Add on interest rates at record lows, demographic pressures, heavy government debt levels, and widespread technological disruption throughout the global economy.

The market environment of low interest rates makes it difficult to generate income while preserving capital. As a result, many investors have taken on additional credit or interest rate risk to try to earn a more attractive income from fixed income assets.

But there are pitfalls to this approach. Without a counterweight to the extra portfolio risk, investors could be vulnerable to an increase in interest rates or a selloff in credit markets.

One option for investors is a multisector strategy with the flexibility to adapt quickly to changing markets. A strategy that’s able to capture opportunities when available but also play defense when market conditions call for it.

Global Income Optimiser strategy

The portfolio team behind the Franklin Brandywine Global Income Optimiser strategy are strong believers in flexibility, which means we try to adapt the income and risk exposures in a portfolio to the market environment. This approach does not have any structural, home country or sectoral biases. We aim to rotate the portfolio across what we believe are the best risk-adjusted return opportunities in the global fixed income universe.

Our goal is to generate high-yield-like returns with investment-grade-like volatility for investors. We want to maximize the income that can safely be earned in a given market environment.

The Franklin Brandywine strategy seeks returns from across the investment universe, including global investment grade and high yield credit, developed market sovereigns, structured credit and emerging market debt. Furthermore, sector rotation, duration management, quality rotation and security selection are employed to meet the strategy’s investment objective. Foreign currency is hedged primarily back to an investor’s base currency, such as the Canadian dollar; however, limited exposure may be used opportunistically to add alpha for a portfolio.

This strategy became available to retail investors in Canada on June 4, when Franklin Templeton introduced the Franklin Brandywine Global Income Optimiser Fund*. Globally, the strategy has a successful track record, dating back to its inception in 2013. In the U.S, a similar fund, to the degree allowed by Canadian regulations, is 5-star rated by Morningstar.** Brandywine Global is a specialist investment manager that was part of Franklin Templeton’s acquisition of asset manager Legg Mason in 2020.

Portfolio positioning for the reopening

Brandywine Global sees growth and inflation returning to the global economy this year. We increased spread duration late in the first quarter of 2020 and began reducing high quality government bond duration; so overall portfolio duration was roughly flat last spring. From last summer through winter, we materially reduced portfolio duration.

Now, the positioning of the strategy is for a short duration, cyclically-oriented portfolio of companies that have some pricing power, given inflationary pressures from the reopening trade. There’s a mix of U.S. and European names with a concentration in the BBB and BB space. The level of credit risk is largely investment grade over the long term; less than 5% of the portfolio is in CCC securities. High quality government bonds can help manage volatility. These and other ‘safe’ assets offer lots of ‘episodic value’ for the portfolio at times, especially during volatile markets, by being sources of alpha and acting as a counterweight to riskier holdings.

Capital protection is a top priority, and the Brandywine team will not reach for yield in this strategy.

Environmental, social, governance assessments

Also, Brandywine Global integrates ESG analysis into our comprehensive assessment of information risk and price risk with this strategy. The focus is on the material ESG issues that can impact a country’s economic growth, the business activities of a corporation, or the integrity of securitized collateral. Continue Reading…

Renting vs Buying Property while living abroad: Which is best for Financial Independence?

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By Emily Roberts

For the Financial Independence Hub

Financial independence means different things to different people. It has an impact on your life planning and whether renting is preferred over buying property. If you’re planning to go abroad and live elsewhere like continental Europe, Eastern Europe, or south-east Asia, then plans may be different again.

In this article, we look at whether renting is better than buying when you’re financially independent (or working towards it).

What Does Financial Independence mean to You?

Financial independence is possible at various levels. People refer to it by different names including Barista FIRE, CoastFIRE, FI, and others.

One approach is to reach a modest level of financial independence to provide a minimal income from investments, and to let them grow from their current level for a decade or longer while working an easier, low-paid job. Another approach is to wait until you have enough and then retire, but with the occasional freelance or consulting gig too.

Financial independence doesn’t necessarily mean retirement, which generally speaking refers to stopping working as a primary source of income. Different strokes for different folks.

Advantages of Renting

When still working, renting comes out of your paycheck and reduces what you can invest for future financial independence. Some people decide to live and work abroad to reduce their living expenses, to allow them to save faster.

Renting in the US

Americans can rent places Stateside but have to be careful of the long-term leases and associated fees along with any restrictions on tenants.

Depending on the city, renting has become quite expensive, causing some to look abroad.

Renting Abroad

Renting abroad can save you considerable money compared to back home.

For instance, PropertyGuru provides rooms for rent in Kuching, Malaysia. They have rooms for under $100 a month, studios for greater privacy, and larger multi-bedroom apartments in newly constructed buildings too. Their team can locate suitable rental accommodation close to major facilities and transport links, so whether you’re working there, planning to retire, or just on vacation, they can find something suitable.

Advantages of Buying

Purchasing real estate is something that appeals to many people. When they don’t like the idea of not owning where they live, then they lean far more towards buying.

Owning property domestically is possible when the prices are affordable. Unfortunately, cities with the most jobs typically also enjoy robust real estate markets with high prices to match. Sinking most of the next egg into a home makes retirement difficult. The ongoing ownership costs aren’t cheap either. Continue Reading…

What are Cryptocurrency Loans and how do you get one?

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By Hristina Nikolovska

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you urgently need some extra money, a personal loan is the most viable option. There are various kinds of loans like mortgages, credit cards, or personal loans. Usually, you’d head over to banks or credit unions to get the funds. However, there’s another way to get a personal loan you probably haven’t considered. This article will explain what you need to know about crypto loans.

What are Crypto Loans? 

Cryptocurrency has evolved and entered multiple markets. That’s why you also have the option of getting a cryptocurrency loan, just like you would get one from a bank. However, there are some differences. 

Cryptocurrency is decentralized, meaning you don’t need an intermediary to deal with your financial transactions. The same applies to a crypto loan. There still is a platform you should register on, but you won’t be borrowing funds from it. Instead, you’ll borrow funds from other cryptocurrency owners. You also won’t need any credit checks. 

How do you borrow Crypto?

One thing you should know is that you’re required to over-collateralize a crypto loan to be eligible for it. This proves you have enough financial power to get the loan, and it protects both sides. 

Usually, you’ll collateralize your loan with some other cryptocurrency. Once you pay off your loan, you’ll get your cryptocurrency back. If you’re worried about the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, some platforms allow you to collateralize your loans with cars, real estate, or other off-chain assets. 

The cryptocurrency loan process is quick, and you’ll receive your money almost immediately. The first thing you need to do is verify your identity. Identity verification or know your customer (KYC) is there to protect the platforms and lenders from frauds, money laundering, terrorist financing, and similar acts. 

This identity verification is fast. Typically, you need to take a photo of one of your official documents and send it in for a scan together with your data. After this step, you’re required to deposit collateral. Depositing is as fast as the blockchain. 

Since this form of lending doesn’t require any assessment of your credit score, it’s a great choice if you don’t have any financial history, bank account, or you’re self-employed. It also allows you to switch between crypto assets and make your funds liquid without triggering a taxable event. 

What are the safest Crypto Lending Platforms? 

There are many crypto lending platforms out there that differ in fees, interest rates, withdrawal terms, and other aspects. 

The most famous platform is Binance. Loan duration lasts from 7 to 90 days. Daily interest rates are 0.0244%, while annual interest rates are 8.90%. Binance offers two types of lending, fixed deposits and flexible deposits, where the fixed one locks your funds, and the flexible one lets you withdraw funds whenever you want.  Continue Reading…

Investment roads not taken, but no regrets

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I’ve let some very lucrative opportunities slip through my fingers over the years.  I won’t call them regrets as I’ll explain later, but I could have ended up with a lot more money than I have now.  Here I describe the top three potential paydays that got away from me.

Bitcoin

I spent my career as a cryptographer, so it’s not too surprising that I took an interest in the workings of bitcoin when it first appeared.  I learned how it worked and appreciated the clever way it was designed to mimic mining for gold without the need for a central authority.  For a while, that’s as far as my interest went.

Later, some enthusiasts formed a group to work on mining bitcoins, and they wanted me to join.  I was tempted, but decided that I had other things to do with my time.  Given the way I tend to get obsessed with technical projects, if I had joined in those early days, I could have mined thousands of bitcoins.

When bitcoin prices were manipulated upward to spark the mania we’ve witnessed, I would have sold my bitcoins off a little at a time to avoid having too much of my net worth tied up in a volatile currency of questionable real value.  It’s possible that I could have ended up with around CDN$50 million after taxes.  But I’ll never know for certain what might have been because I didn’t join the group.

Apple Stock

I bought 3000 shares of Apple stock in October 2000.  They were only $20.54 each.  A little less than three years later, I sold them for a loss of about US$3000.  Since then, Apple shares have split 2 for 1, 7 for 1, and recently 4 for 1.  If I had held onto this stock, I’d have 168,000 shares now.  As I write this, these shares trade at $126.85, for a total of US21.3 million. Continue Reading…