All posts by Financial Independence Hub

How much Savings do you need to delay starting CPP and OAS?

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 

Canadians who take their CPP at age 60 instead of 70 “can expect to lose over $100,000 of secure lifetime income, in today’s dollars, over the course of their retirement,” according to Dr. Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald in research released by the National Institute on Ageing (NIA) and the FP Canada Research Foundation.

However, those who retire before 70 need savings to tide them over until their larger CPP pensions start if they want to live at least as well in their 60s as they do later in retirement.  Here we look at the amount of savings required by a retired 60-year old to be able to delay CPP and OAS pensions.

Incentive for delaying is strong

We’re used to thinking of CPP and OAS pensions as just a few hundred dollars per month, but a 70-year old couple just starting to receive maximum CPP and OAS pensions (but not any of the new expanded CPP) would get $61,100 per year, rising with inflation for the rest of their lives.  If the same couple were 65 they’d only get $43,700 per year.  If this 65-year old couple had taken CPP at 60, their combined CPP and OAS would be $32,700 per year now.  The incentive for delaying the start of CPP and OAS is strong.

We can think of the savings needed to delay the start of CPP and OAS pensions as the price of buying larger inflation-indexed government pensions.  This price is an absolute bargain compared to the cost of buying an annuity from an insurance company.  Those in good health but worried about “losing” if they delay pensions and die young can focus on the positives.  Delaying pensions allows retirees to spend their savings confidently during their 60s knowing that their old age is secure.  Taking small pensions early can leave retirees penny-pinching in their 60s worried about their savings running out in old age.

The table below shows the amount of savings a retired 60-year old requires to delay starting CPP.  This table is based on a number of assumptions:

  1. The current maximum age 65 CPP pension is $1203.75 per month.  Before you take your CPP pension, it grows based on national wage growth as well as an actuarial formula, but after you take it, it grows with “regular” inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  We assume wage growth will exceed CPI growth by 0.75% per year.
  2. We assume the retiree is entitled to the maximum CPP pension.  Those with smaller CPP entitlements can scale down the savings amounts.  For example, someone expecting only 50% of the maximum CPP pension can cut the savings amounts in half.
  3. We assume the retiree holds savings in an RRSP/RRIF so that withdrawals will be taxed in the same way that CPP pensions are taxed.  Retirees using savings in non-registered accounts won’t need to save as much because they only need to match the after-tax amount of CPP pensions.
  4. The retiree is able to earn enough on savings to keep up with inflation.  (Online banks offer savings account rates that put the big banks to shame.)  The monthly pension amounts in the table are inflation-adjusted; the retiree’s savings will grow to cover the actual CPP pension payments.
  5. We assume the retiree doesn’t have a workplace pension whose bridge benefits end at age 65.  This bridge benefit replaces some of the savings needed to permit delaying CPP and OAS.
CPP % of  Inflation-Adjusted Months of Savings
 Start  Age 65 CPP Monthly CPP Spending from  Needed at
Age Pension Pension  Personal Savings Age 60
60 64.0% $770 0 0
61 71.2% $863 12 $10,400
62 78.4% $958 24 $23,000
63 85.6% $1054 36 $37,900
64 92.8% $1151 48 $55,200
65 100.0% $1250 60 $75,000
66 108.4% $1365 72 $98,300
67 116.8% $1481 84 $124,400
68 125.2% $1600 96 $153,600
69 133.6% $1720 108 $185,800
70 142.0% $1842 120 $221,000

You can’t start OAS till 65 but can delay it till 70

Unlike CPP, you can’t start your OAS pension until you’re at least 65.  But you can delay it until you’re 70 to get larger payments.  The table below shows the amount of savings a retired 60-year old requires to delay starting OAS.  The table is based on a number of assumptions:

  1. The current maximum age 65 OAS pension is $615.37 per month.
  2. We assume the retiree is entitled to the maximum OAS pension by living in Canada for at least 40 out of 47 years from age 18 to 65.
  3. We assume the retiree won’t want to live poor before age 65, which means spending from savings from age 60 to 64 to make up for not receiving OAS.
  4. We assume the retiree holds savings in an RRSP/RRIF so that withdrawals will be taxed in the same way that OAS pensions are taxed.  Retirees using savings in non-registered accounts won’t need to save as much because they only need to match the after-tax amount of OAS pensions. Continue Reading…

Where to invest 2021 RRSP contributions

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By Graham Priest

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In today’s low interest rates environment, investors are looking beyond GICs and equities to generate greater returns over the long term. The economic recovery has surpassed expectations, and individuals are looking beyond COVID-19 and a return to some normalcy by the end of the year. With this in mind, there are several different kinds of investments that Canadians could consider making from their RRSP contributions in 2021.

For example, technology stocks and other “work from home” related stocks that performed well in 2020 might take a breather in 2021 if more of us start heading back to the office.  Areas of the market that underperformed in 2020 may exceed expectations this year. For example, recently energy stocks have started to display strength. Emerging markets is another area that will likely perform well in the next year. If the USD declines in value, it will be an added benefit for emerging markets, as a large portion of their debt is denominated in USD.

Additionally, after a rough 2020, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are gaining a leadership role within the market. Many REITs have strong yields that provide income that exceeds the interest paid on government and corporate bonds. However, REITs are a good investment inside a TFSA. The income distribution from a REIT is generally taxable income, and in a TFSA, there is no tax on that income.

Put high-growth investments outside RRSP

Investments that have the potential for exponential growth may be better suited outside of an RRSP, as withdrawals from an RRSP are taxed as income. Withdrawing large capital gains tax-free from a TFSA is a better option for investors who have RRSP and TFSA accounts. Continue Reading…

The case for caution with cryptocurrencies

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Vanguard Group

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Republished with permission of Vanguard Canada

The tremendous surge in the price of cryptocurrencies has attracted the attention of many investors, who may be considering the digital currency as a potential substitute for traditional asset classes in diversified portfolios. But Roger Aliaga-Díaz, chief economist for the Americas and head of portfolio construction at Vanguard, cautioned against speculating in cryptocurrencies, which are largely unregulated and accompanied by considerable risks.

“Cryptocurrency prices depend mostly on speculation about their adoption and use,” Mr. Aliaga-Díaz said. “And that speculation creates volatility that, ironically, undermines their potential use as either a currency or asset class in an investment strategy.”

What is a cryptocurrency?

A cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual means of exchange. There are more than 6,700 cryptocurrencies today; among the better known are Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, XRP, Tether, and Litecoin.

Unlike traditional currencies, virtual currencies currently operate without central authorities or banks, and they are not backed by any government. Cryptocurrencies are stored in “digital wallets” on a holder’s computer or phone, or in the cloud. The wallet serves as a virtual bank account that enables holders to pay for goods and services or simply store the currency in hopes of an increase in value.

Cryptocurrencies defy neat categorization. They are not a traditional currency, commodity, or asset class, though they share characteristics of each.

There are several reasons why cryptocurrencies are not a traditional currency. Although some merchants have begun to allow cryptocurrency payments, they are generally not accepted as a medium of payment. Cryptocurrencies also are not used as a unit of account because prices, trade invoicing, and contracts are not quoted in digital currency units. Finally, cryptocurrencies’ ability to serve as a store of value—a safe instrument to preserve the value of people’s financial wealth—is severely limited by their notorious volatility.

“The fact that cryptocurrencies are not issued by a central bank is actually the very reason why they can’t achieve the quality of other well-accepted currencies,” Mr. Aliaga-Díaz explained. “The role of a central bank is precisely to preserve the value of the currency by keeping inflation under control. That’s why prices are more predictable under Federal Reserve management of the U.S. dollar money supply.”

Cryptocurrencies share some characteristics of commodities. For example, they can be bought and sold in cash markets or via derivatives. But Mr. Aliaga-Díaz said they are not commodities because they are not physical raw materials.

No substitute for stock and bonds

Some wonder whether cryptocurrencies can be used in strategic portfolios as substitutes for stocks and bonds. “But unlike traditional asset classes, cryptocurrencies lack intrinsic economic value and generate no cash flows, such as interest payments or dividends, which can explain their prices,” Mr. Aliaga-Díaz said.

Mr. Aliaga-Díaz pointed out that as with currencies and spot commodities, such as gold, there is no risk premium expected with cryptocurrencies as compensation for bearing the risk of their price movements. “Because cryptos represent uncompensated risk to the portfolio, they are not a good substitute for stocks and bonds in a long-term portfolio,” he said.

Some investors may be willing to bet on sustained crypto price increases based on the belief that crypto demand will always outpace its supply. And though there might be some valid reasons around projected demand and usage to make a compelling case for a persistent supply shortage that can sustain increasing prices, Mr. Aliaga-Díaz noted, the supply of cryptos has exploded over time, and there is no reason to believe that supply can’t keep up with demand.

“The biggest risk for all investors would be to assume that demand growth will continue just because their prices have recently gone up,” he said. “That’s speculation, not investment.”

Other risks to keep in mind

Despite all the recent attention devoted to cryptocurrencies, Mr. Aliaga-Diaz cautioned that there are a number of additional risks associated with digital currencies, including: Continue Reading…

Are people denying the Real Estate Bubble, too?

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Will Ottawa move to deflate the housing bubble by taxing gains on principal residences in today’s federal budget?

 By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

By now, you’ll know that I have been alarmed by stock market valuations for a long time.  Late 2019, in fact.  Recently, I pointed out that the bond market is severely stretched based on current valuations.  It is now time to complete the TINA Trifecta by examining real estate.

Depending on which market you live in, real estate in Canada is likely somewhere between “pricey” and “there is no hope in hell for my kids to ever be homeowners.” In the greater Toronto area where I live, the consensus price increase in real estate over the past three years or so is about 30%.  No wonder there’s speculation that today’s federal budget will include a capital gains tax inclusion on principal residences.

From a financial planning perspective, it is considered prudent to expect real estate prices to increase at about the same rate as wage inflation.  Inflation has been hovering at around 2% for over thirty years now.  Wages have been essentially stagnant over that timeframe. Stated differently, we’re already gone nearly a third of a century with real estate outpacing prudent expectations.  That’s what TINA [There Is No Alternative] does.  There is literally no alternative because everything is expensive to buy, but ridiculously cheap to own: in terms of financing and the cost of carry.

The Great Covid Bubble?

Central banks started lowering rates aggressively in early March 2020.  Government cheques started to be sent out about a month later.  Over the past 13 months or so, we’ve reached the point where the combined effects of fiscal and monetary stimulus have created a valuation monster that touches on all major asset classes.  Stocks, bonds and real estate are all flashing red in terms of historical valuations.  Someday, people could look back on this unprecedented confluence of circumstances and call it the “Great COVID Bubble.” Continue Reading…

36% of non-Home-Owners under 40 giving up on buying first home, but others still plan to buy, RBC poll finds

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By Amit Sahasrabudhe, Vice-President, Home Equity Financing, RBC

(Sponsor Content)

The road to home ownership isn’t always an easy one and the pandemic has made it even more complex, bringing new challenges and opportunities for prospective homebuyers. For some, lifestyle changes have created opportunities for increased savings. Others find themselves priced out of the housing market.

RBC conducts an annual Spring Housing Poll to learn more about Canadians’ attitudes around home buying and the housing market. This year’s results show that despite some Canadians – especially non-homeowners under 40 – reporting they have given up on the dream of home ownership, there has been an increase in those who say they’re likely to buy in the next two years.

Even amidst an increasingly expensive housing market, most Canadians feel that housing continues to be a good investment and that it is still better to buy than rent.

Should you buy now or buy later?

The first step in knowing whether it is the right time to buy is understanding how much you can realistically afford. This includes having a full picture of your current financial situation and how it may change in the future. It is also important to consider external factors like the overall housing market and economy, as they can also have a big impact on your ability to purchase a home.

In fact, our research found that many Canadians are planning to wait to purchase a home because of the state of the economy, concerns about their job security and affordability, especially in hot housing markets. For others, historically low interest rates and the fear that housing market will become increasingly unaffordable are motivating the decision to purchase a home sooner.

While Canadians now have a lot more factors to consider when buying a home, they don’t have to embark on this journey alone. Buying a home is one of the most important decisions you will ever make and there’s no substitute for doing your research and receiving expert advice on how to fit your home purchase into your overall financial plan. RBC Mortgage Specialists are available to help you with your home buying journey from start to finish, and appointments can be booked virtually, by phone or in-branch.

Saving for a down payment

When it comes to purchasing a home, saving for a down payment can often be the biggest barrier to entry. While everyone’s financial situation is different, some Canadians have taken advantage of reduced spending during the last year to build up their savings. Our research found that most Canadians who are likely to buy in the next two years are setting aside monthly savings to put towards purchasing a home, saving an average of $789 each month. Continue Reading…