All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Rate Hike hiatus?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Late in January, the Bank of Canada boosted rates by another 0.25% and signalled that they will now pause and evaluate. I’ve been calling that the rate hike hiatus. As I touched on in mid-January, inflation is moving in the right direction and the consumer is holding up quite well. It’s a Goldilocks scenario, for now. That said, the rate hikes have not worked their way through the economy. In fact, many suggest that we’ve felt almost no economic damage from the rate hikes. There is a lag affect; it can take a year or two for hikes to be felt in full. But let’s call the rate hike hiatus good news.

The big news last month was the announced rate hike hiatus in Canada. Of course, markets are forward “thinking” and they are pricing in a soft landing and rate cuts in 2023. That Yahoo!Finance post suggest that cuts are likely not on the table this year. That would only happen if something breaks and we get a serious-enough recession. Also, inflation would have to be completly under control. The Bank of Canada is not likely to cut rates if inflation is not close to that 2% target.

Rate guesses, not so good …

The consensus appears to be the call that there will be no rate cuts in 2023, though there is a sprinkling of calls for cuts in late 2023. And all said, we should remember the rate predictions from March.  Not even close.

Inflation is so unpredicatable. And inflation might still be driving the bus in 2023.

Coming in for a landing

Lance Roberts looks at the history of soft landing and hard landings. There were 3 past soft landing scenarios, but none in an inflationary environment. The affect of rate hikes have largely not been felt, and likely have had little push on inflation. But that will come over time of course.

Here’s the chart that shows the positive effect of a weak U.S. Dollar for international equities. With bonds looking better and the potential for international markets, the traditional balanced portfolio might ‘be back’ one day soon.

A Weak Dollar Bodes Well For Non-U.S. Equities – ⁦@SoberLook⁩ ⁦@bcaresearch⁩

Originally tweeted by Rob Hager (@Rob_Hager) on January 24, 2023.

Stacking those dividends

Dividend Daddy knows how to stack and count those dividends.

Here is a popular tweet on the simple basics of wealth creation and the path to financial happiness … Continue Reading…

Why Healthcare could lead this market cycle

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Chief Investment Officer explains why this massive sector has the right mix of styles and innovation to show leadership as markets recover

 

Image Harvest ETFs/Shutterstock

By Paul MacDonald, CFA, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

Market cycles are often defined by their leaders. While many sectors and areas of the market can provide returns, the tone and tempo of market narratives are often set by the companies, styles and sectors that are broadly considered the ‘leaders.’

Take the past roughly 15 years as an example. The leadership story on markets was almost completely defined by technology. Tech leaders were synonymous with growth, and that growth was synonymous with leadership during a period of mostly uninterrupted bull market runs.

The bear market we experienced in 2022 hit the reset button on leadership. Not necessarily by removing tech as the key growth sector — it still shows plenty of attractive growth traits — but by resetting some of the fundamental dynamics in the market.

The end of near-zero interest rates has changed the liquidity picture on markets. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has been structurally higher since the onset of the pandemic, and we are likely already in a period of slow economic growth: if not a recession. Rather than the pure-growth traits investors sought for leadership, in the near to medium term we see potential for leadership in areas that balance growth prospects and innovation with stability and consistency.

That sector is healthcare.

3 tailwinds means Healthcare can lead

The US healthcare sector is, in the eyes of many investors, a sleeping giant. Looking at just the 20 leading companies held in the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL:TSX) we see a combined market capitalization of $4.86 trillion, more than 150% of the total market cap of the S&P TSX Composite. These are huge companies in a huge sector, which covers business lines as diverse as pharmaceuticals, healthcare services, med-tech, biotech, and healthcare equipment.

The healthcare sector overall benefits from three structural long-term tailwinds. The first is the aging of the developed world. As the world’s richest countries get older, they are spending more on healthcare. In the US, for example, individuals aged 19-44 spend an average of $4,856 [US$] on healthcare, according to the National Health Statistics Group. That number rises to $10,212 in the 45-64 age bracket, and rises again to $19,098 in the 65+ age bracket.

The developed world is getting older. By 2050 28.5% of North Americans and 35% of Europeans are expected to be over the age of 60, according to the UN. As those places age, their older populations will spend more on healthcare. That demand is largely expected to be stable for the simple fact that people are less likely to cut expenditures on life-saving medications than they are on something more discretionary. Healthcare is therefore seen as a superior good.

The second tailwind is the economic growth of the developing world. Taking China and India as prime examples, the WHO has found that as those countries’ GDP has grown, their healthcare expenditure has grown at a faster rate. These huge markets are already being captured by some of the large-cap US healthcare leaders held in HHL. Continue Reading…

How to Balance Spending Now & Saving for the Future

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From opening two different savings accounts to giving your money a job, here are 12 answers to the question, “Give your best tip for how to balance the need to save and invest for the future with the desire to enjoy my life and spend money on things that are important to you?” 

  • Open Two Different Savings Accounts
  • Consider Your Housing Costs
  • Focus on The Three Aspects of Great Personal Finances
  • Use Financial Aggregators to Monitor Spending
  • Spend Money On Your Passions; Avoid Pointless Purchases
  • Invest in Things That Will Last
  • Understand Your Cash Flow
  • Consider the 50-50 Rule
  • Create and Follow a Budget
  • Use Fixed Percentages for Saving /Investing
  • Schedule a ‘Spending Period’ in Your Life
  • Give Your Money a Job So It Has a Purpose

Open two different Savings Accounts

Most people have a checking account and a savings account. If you want to save for the future, open up a second savings account and put your long-term savings in that pot. Find the best interest opportunities you can find for that account and leave that money alone to the best of your ability.

For the money that you want to use in the shorter term (shopping, traveling, buying gifts), manage that money in a separate savings account. Your checking account should cover all of your expenses while your primary savings account should be your “fun-spending” money.

The third account should be your long-term savings and that should be the money that you take to your financial advisor for the best long-term investment opportunities. Let that build up for a while and then try to make smart investments with it. — Brittany Dolin, Co-founder, Pocketbook Agency

Consider your Housing Costs

If you’re struggling to save and invest for the future while also enjoying life, consider your housing costs. Housing is one of the biggest monthly expenses, so if you’re living in a home that’s too big for you, or you’re paying more than you can afford for it, you may want to consider downsizing.

Consider your needs and wants when choosing a home. Do you really need a five-bedroom home if you’re a family of two? Can you live somewhere with fewer amenities if it means you can save money on your monthly housing costs? Homeownership is an investment in yourself and your future, so it’s important to find a balance between spending on your housing and investing in the future. — Matthew Ramirez, CEO, Rephrasely

Focus on the three Aspects of Great Personal Finances

I’ve learned from my mentors that great personal finances can be broken down into three areas: Budgeting Expenses, Creating Income, and Developing Cashflow-Producing Assets.

With any money-related goal, identifying which area(s) to focus on is key. For example, getting out of debt requires stricter budgeting and increasing income. Meanwhile, retirement has to do with areas 1 and 3. This also makes it simple: budget a percentage of your income to save and invest based on your long-term goals.

Then determine your priorities. Perhaps you need to be strict with some other living expenses to be able to spend money on what’s important to you and set savings and investment goals for larger purchases while you also work to increase your income. — Eric Chow, Chief Consultant, Mashman Ventures

Use Financial Aggregators to Monitor Spending

The balance between saving and investing for the future, while also enjoying life and spending money on what matters to you, is a difficult one to achieve.

One uncommon way to reach this balance is by using financial aggregators. Financial aggregators are tools that allow you to connect all your accounts, such as investments and bank accounts, into one place in order to get a better look at where your hard-earned money is going. This makes it easier for you to budget wisely and allocate money towards satisfying both savings goals, as well as needs or wants for immediate enjoyment.

With this knowledge in hand, you’ll be more aware of how much flexibility you can have with your monthly expenses since both needs are being fulfilled simultaneously. — Carly Hill, Operations Manager, VirtualHolidayParty.com

Spend Money on your Passions; Avoid Pointless Purchases

The best way to save money and enjoy life is to spend money on your passions and cut back on everything else. For example, you might grab a Starbucks drink before work every day. But does this really add value to your life? You can make the exact same coffee at home for a fraction of the price. This is just one example, but most people are spending thousands of dollars a year on unimportant things.

Once you’ve cut expenses out of your life that don’t provide value, spend this extra money on your passions. Let’s say you’re a big fan of motorbiking. You can use this money to buy a sport bike and go to your local racetrack every weekend. Or, if you love hiking, buy quality hiking gear and hike with friends and family. This strategy allows you to cut back on unimportant expenses, save money, and spend more on things that bring happiness. — Scott Lieberman, Owner, Touchdown Money

Invest in Things that will Last

A great way to balance the need to save and invest for your future while still enjoying life is mindful spending. This means considering each purchase you make, big or small, and evaluating if it will add long-term value and benefit you; an uncommon example of this would be investing in a massage package.

Instead of splurging on something that won’t provide sustainable value, such as multiple nights out with friends, consider treating yourself to regular professional massages — which have medical benefits from managing pain to reducing stress — that promote mental health and well-being. Practicing mindful spending ensures money is not wasted frivolously but also allows for some indulgences now that can later prove beneficial. — Grace He, People and Culture Director, teambuilding.com

Understand your Cash Flow

Understanding your household cash flow is among the most important aspects of securing your financial future. In order to have more money to spend or save now, you must be acutely aware of your spending habits. Continue Reading…

Timeless Financial Tips #1: “It’s Already Priced In”

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Lowrie Financial: Canva Custom Creation

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Understanding How Market Pricing Works

Let’s talk about the price of stocks.

It stands to reason: To make money in the market, you need to sell your holdings for more than you paid. Of course, we’re all familiar with good old buy low, sell high. But despite its simplicity, many investors fall short. Instead, they end up doing just the opposite, or at least leaving returns on the table that could have been theirs to keep.

You can defend against these human foibles by understanding how stock pricing works and using that knowledge to your advantage.

Good News, Bad News, and Market Views

How do you know when a stock or stock fund is priced for buying or selling?

The short answer is, we don’t.

And yet, many investors still let current events dominate their decisions. They sell when they fear bad news means prices are going to fall. Or they buy when good news breaks. They invest in funds that do the same.

While this may seem logical, there’s a problem with it: You’re betting you or your fund manager can place winning trades before markets have already priced in the news.

To be blunt, that’s a losing bet.

You’re betting that you know more about what the price should be at any given point than what the formidable force of the market has already decided. Every so often, you might be right. But the preponderance of the evidence suggests any “wins” are more a matter of luck than skill.

Me and You Against the World

Whenever you try to buy low or sell high, who is the force on the other side of the trading table?

It’s the market.

The market includes millions of individuals, institutions, banks, and brokerages trading hundreds of billions of dollars every moment of every day. It includes highly paid analysts continuously watching every move the markets make. It includes AI-driven engines seeking to get their trades in nanoseconds ahead of everyone else.

And you think you can beat that?

We believe it’s far more reasonable to assume, by the time you’ve heard the news, the collective market has too, and has already priced it in. Continue Reading…

How to address your Financial Anxieties without breaking the Bank

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Image source: Pixabay.com

By Beau Peters

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Money management is arguably one of the most stressful things that most of us deal with on a regular basis. It never fails; just as soon as you feel like you’re doing well financially, something comes up — unexpected home repairs, vehicle maintenance, emergency medical bills, holiday gift purchases. Financial worries can sit in the back of your mind and weigh on you day in and day out.

For many, financial stresses are a concern, but not a debilitating one. However, some people develop financial anxiety — a condition where worry, fear, and unease about finances causes those suffering from it to behave differently. Behavior changes can show up in different ways such as extreme frugalness, avoiding finances, excessive overspending, or even physical changes such as high blood pressure.

Fortunately, if you are someone who suffers from financial anxiety, there are steps you can take to help address it and get your life back. The first one is finding some help, the next is gaining control. As you work through the process of dealing with your financial anxiety, you will inevitably learn a lot about yourself and how to manage your money the way you want to.

Finding Help

The root cause of financial anxiety can come from a number of different places. Maybe you have an extreme fear of being in debt because you grew up watching your parents struggle to make ends meet without sinking deeper and deeper into financial ruin. Or perhaps you were never really taught about personal finance management and now everything finance seems daunting. Or maybe you’ve just given up all hope of financial stability and choose not to address the financial concerns you know you should.

Either way, there is help out there and you are not alone. Talking with professionals about financial issues is a great place to start. Numerous different types of therapists can help you identify the root of your financial anxiety and work through the issues surrounding that cause. Likewise, financial advisors can be a great resource for helping you to understand your finances and get them back on track.

Of course, it might give you anxiety just to think about paying for a therapist to help you through your financial stresses.

Don’t worry! There are still options for you. The first might be to start by talking to a trusted friend that you believe manages their money well. Another option is to dive into the multitudes of cheap or free resources that are available online. These include affordable financial help guides or podcasts that dive into all sorts of topics, from how to build a budget you can stick to all the way to how to best invest your money.

Making a Plan

If getting help is the first step, developing a realistic plan is the second step. You might be thinking great, another budget that is bound to fail, but this isn’t necessarily the case. A workable plan can come in a variety of different forms. The right plan for you to address your financial anxiety might be different than what another person needs to feel financially stable.

For example, maybe the right plan for you involves building greater financial literacy by learning some of the terminology and tools available. Perhaps your plan is to read one financial news article a day. Or maybe your plan is to build up a rainy day fund that will ease your concerns about going into debt. Or to focus more on building more meaningful relationships and focus less on having the fanciest home goods.

All of this isn’t to say that a budget isn’t sometimes a great tool. In fact, budgets can be one of the most powerful tools for getting yourself out of debt or achieving a financial goal. The crux is creating a realistic budget that you can actually live with. Cutting out all of your excess expenditures might help you save money, but sooner or later you’ll crack. Smaller changes that you can really stick to are much more valuable over the long run.

Taking Control

The final step is to enact the plan and adjust as needed to make sure you’re doing something that is really making a positive difference. Take time once a month to evaluate where you’re at with your financial anxiety. Are you making progress? Are you achieving your financial and financial mental health goals? Continue Reading…