All posts by Financial Independence Hub

AgeTech Careers are EPIC, don’t you know?

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ChangeRangers.com

By Mark Venning, ChangeRangers.com

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Attending three AGE-WELL EPIC conferences on-line since 2020, my level of understanding of Canadian research and development in ageing and technology, or AgeTech (as it is universally called now), has truly deepened. It could be said that AgeTech became epic in 2022 as AGE-WELL, Canada’s technology and aging network established in 2015, spelled out the acronym EPIC – Early Professionals, Inspired Careers in AgeTech.

Updating from my blog post last May – An EPIC AgeTech Adventure Continues, the EPIC-AT is a national health research training platform, designed to prepare graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and early career researchers to be future leaders in digital health solutions for older adults with complex health needs.

Hosted at the University of Toronto EPIC-AT is powered by AGE-WELL, led by researchers from 11 universities and research hospitals from across Canada.

While it could be argued that AgeTech is still in its adolescent stage, as many people I speak with have no idea what it really is, never mind how large in scope it has become so far; it is worthy to repeat how much AgeTech will become more prolific over the remainder of this decade, assuming research is supported and consumer awareness and adoption is widely acknowledged. So the good news is that at this point, the modest $13M funding in EPIC-AT runs through to 2027.

If you are wondering how all this research manifests itself in the marketplace, recently AGE-WELL published its revised AgeTech Startup Map for 2023 and here you will get up to speed on the 114 Canadian companies in eight categories from, for example, Supportive Homes & Communities to Healthcare & Health Service Delivery and Cognitive Health & Dementia.

From Dementia to Deep Space

On further note, sometimes the discussion on AgeTech can take you to far out places, and on Feb.2, 2023 the EPIC-AT Webinar I attended, did just that – it took me to Deep Space, in one of the longest webinar titles ever, “The Challenge of Deploying Large Scale Digital Health-Based Support to Older Adults Aging at Home:  When Deep Space Travel Offers Opportunities.” Actually it was quite uplifting so to speak, to learn how the far out the journey with AgeTech might take us. Continue Reading…

Timeless Financial Tips #3: Tax-Planning as a Lifetime Pursuit

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Lowrie Financial: Canva Custom Creation

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I would be remiss if I didn’t dedicate at least one post in my “Play It Again, Steve” series to everyone’s least favourite, but still significant topic: taxes.

It’s a good thing there’s no tax on writing about tax planning; if there were, I would surely owe a lot.

Here are six timeless techniques for reducing your lifetime tax load:

1. Fill up your tax-sheltered investment accounts.

Taxes primarily exist to raise money for government operations, but they also are often structured to encourage us to spend and save in particular ways. For example, there are:

If you’re saving anyway, you might as well take advantage of any available tax breaks for doing so. Each tax-sheltered, or “registered” account comes with different rules on whether the money goes in pre- or post-tax, and whether it comes back out as taxable or tax-free income. But all of them share a powerful, often overlooked advantage: Investments in all registered accounts grow tax-free.

So, fill up those registered accounts. Also, be sure to invest any of it you’re not going to need for a decade or more. The snowball effect of tax-sheltered investing should help you accumulate significantly more after-tax wealth than if it’s just sitting in cash.

2. Invest tax efficiently in and among your registered and taxable accounts.

There are endless ways to invest more tax-efficiently; here are a few of the greatest hits:

How you invest: Since you only incur taxes when you sell a holding, an obvious rule of thumb is to avoid unnecessary taxable trading. Build a durable portfolio you can stick with through thick and thin, and avoid chasing hot and cold stock picks and market conditions.

With whom you invest: Especially in your taxable accounts, avoid funds whose managers are actively picking stocks or timing the market. You won’t directly see their extra, unnecessary trades. But they’ll show up at tax time in the form of taxable capital gain distributions to unit holders: i.e., you. Worse, you could end up owing taxes on those invisible gains, whether the fund goes up or down in value. There are few more unpleasant surprises for an investor than a big, year-end tax bill on a fund that’s lost value.

Where you invest (asset location): Hold your relatively tax-inefficient assets (such as bonds and REITs) in tax-sheltered accounts, where the inefficiencies don’t matter as much. Hold your relatively tax-efficient assets (such as broad stock funds) in taxable accounts.

3. Remember, not all tax rates are the same. Aim for the less costly ones.

For personal taxable accounts and investment holdcos, some taxes cost less than others. Your most tax-efficient investing income comes in the form of capital gains, since they are taxed at lower rates than other sources such as interest or dividends. This, combined with asset location considerations, is another reason to avoid loading up on dividend stocks as a strategy for generating an income stream in retirement.

Don’t believe me? Consider these 2023 combined tax rates for Ontario:

Taxable Income Source 2023 Combined Tax Rate
Interest and other income 53.53%
Eligible dividends (mostly Cdn. companies) 39.34%
Capital gains 26.76%
Source: CI Global Asset Management – Personal Tax Card – updated January 15, 2023
It’s also worth keeping an eye on whether your annual income is approaching marginal tax rate thresholds. For example, in Ontario, if you make over $235,675 in 2023, you’ll be in the top bracket. If your annual income is approaching that figure, you and your accountant can look for sensible ways to avoid reaching it. Investment holdco owners have additional tax-planning tools available to help manage the income earned from corporation investments.

Continue Reading…

The Balanced Portfolio journey after a terrible 2022

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The balanced portfolio had a terrible 2022. In fact, it was just about the worst ever. Stocks were down and bonds had a rough ride delivering negative returns thanks to the rising yield environment. As rates go up, bond prices go down. Inflation was the culprit. Central bankers created a rising rate environment to cool the economy in the attempt to tame inflation. It was almost a year ago that I asked ‘what’s up with balanced portfolios in 2022’. Looking back on that post, things have played out as suggested in the post. And as a recession looks likely in 2023, bonds and the classic 60/40 balanced portfolio might be back in business. It’s the balanced portfolio journey on the Sunday Reads.

Here’s the post from April of 2022 – what’s up with balanced portfolios in 2022. At that point in time …

The stock and bond scorecard for 2022

  • Canadian stocks are up 1.8%
  • U.S. stocks are down 9.9%
  • International developed markets are down 11.4%
  • International emerging markets are down 13.9%

And when we looked at asset allocation ETFs, we saw that the more bond-heavy portfolios (top of that list) were down more than equity-heavy portfolios …

Here’s the year-to-date performance to April 21, 2022.

  • XINC down 8.9%
  • XCNS down 8.5%
  • XBAL down 8%
  • XGRO down 7.4%
  • XEQT down 7.0%

And while this post covering the returns of the core ETF portfolios shows that the balanced portfolio model has worked quite well over the last several years, 2022 was a down year. A typical 60/40 portfolio was down about 11% in 2022.

The all-weather model was performing well, as I wrote …

There was nowhere to hide in the traditional balanced portfolio. That said if one took more of an all-weather portfolio approach the results would be far superior. In fact the portfolios I run for myself and my wife are very near all-time highs. An all-weather portfolio will include dedicated inflation protection by way of commodities, energy and commodity stocks, plus gold.

A key to managing a balanced portfolio is rebalancing on schedule, or rebalance when certain assets perform well as other assets floudner. We move monies from the winners to the losers. In the 2022 post I suggested …

The key with any balanced portfolio approach is to rebalance on schedule. Take your gains and move the assets to the asset that’s stinking the joint out. These days, that may mean taking profits from your inflation-fighters and Canadian stocks and moving them to the underperforming assets. Yes, even moving those profits to your bonds.

In anticipation of a recession, bonds have started to work again from late 2022, with more robust gains in the last 3 months.

Bonds? Well ya!

If you need to manage the portfolio volatility, you need to manage the portfolio volatility. Meaning, your risk tolerance did not change just because bonds are getting hurt. You still need to manage the risks.

During a stock market correction (and/or recession) bonds will be there to do their thing. That is, go up when stocks get crushed. Continue Reading…

Inverted Yield Curves & Recession: How smart are Markets?

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Image Outcome/Creative Commons

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Today’s Special: An Inverted Yield Curve with a Side Order of (Possible) Recession

In our discussions with clients over the past several months, the two frequent topics of conversation have been:

  1. The inversion of the U.S. Treasury curve, and
  2. The possibility of a recession occurring within the next few quarters.

In the following missive, I use a data-based, historical approach to explore the possible investment implications of these concerns.

How Smart is the Yield Curve?

The U.S. Treasury market has an impressive track record in terms of forecasting recessions. Going back to the late 1980s, every time the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has remained below that of its two-year counterpart for at least six months, a recession has followed. Such was the case with the recession of the early 1990s, of the early 2000s, and of the global financial crisis.

When it comes to investing (as with many things), timing is critical. Given that yield curves do occasionally invert and that recessions do happen from time to time, it follows that every recession has been preceded by an inverted curve, and vice-versa. What makes the historical prescience of inverted yield curves so impressive is that the recessions which followed them did so within a relatively short period.

United States – Months from Yield Curve Inversion to Onset of Recession: 1989-Present

The table above covers the past three U.S. recessions, excluding the Covid-induced contraction of 2020, which I have omitted since it had nothing to do with macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, etc. As the table demonstrates, the time lag between yield curve inversions and economic contractions has ranged between 12 and 18 months, with an average of 15 months.

However, the yield curve’s impeccable record of predicting recessions has not been matched by its market timing abilities. As summarized in the following table, the S&P 500 Index has produced mixed results following past inversions in the Treasury curve.

S&P 500 Performance Following Yield Curve Inversions: 1989-Present

When the Treasury curve inverted at the beginning of 1989, stocks proceeded to perform well, returning 24.1% over the following two years. Conversely, when the curve became inverted in March 2000, the S&P 500 fared poorly, losing 21.5% over the same timeframe. The index suffered a similarly undesirable fate following the Treasury curve inversion in September 2006, when stocks suffered a two-year decline of 9.1%.

How Smart is the Stock Market?

In the past, the economy and equity markets have not been correlated. Stock prices are forward looking. Historically, equities have started to decline prior to peaks in economic growth and have tended to rebound in advance of economic recoveries.

The trillion-dollar question is not whether the market is smart, but whether it is smart enough. Do prices bake in a sufficient amount of bad news ahead of time so that they avoid further losses following the onset of recessions? Or do they lack sufficient pessimism to avoid this fate? Frustratingly, the answer depends on the recession!

S&P 500 Performance Following Start of Recessions: 1990-Present

Stocks managed to skate through the recession of the early 1990s unscathed. Following the peak of the economy in mid-1990, the S&P 500 Index went on to produce a total return of 27.2% over the next two years. Unfortunately, investors were not so lucky during the recession of the early 2000s, with stocks losing 24.6% in the two years after the recession began. Similarly, the recession of 2008 was no walk in the park for markets, with the S&P 500 falling 20.3% after the economy began contracting at the end of 2007. Continue Reading…

The benefits of Early Retirement

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By Billy and Alaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Retirement is something that many people look forward to in their later years, but what if you could leave your career earlier?

The idea of retiring before the typical age of 65 may seem like a pipe dream to some, but it is becoming more and more of a reality for many people whether by choice or through layoffs. There are numerous benefits to this decision, both financially and in terms of lifestyle.

Financial Advantages

One of the main reasons people strive for early retirement is the financial benefits it provides.

To prepare, it’s important to have a solid financial plan in place. This is a great way to learn the skills of creating a budget, tracking your spending, and paying down debt. We learn the value of maximizing retirement contributions and investing in non-IRA accounts. It’s the time to build up retirement savings before beginning to withdraw from them. You can do this on your own, as none of this requires a professional advisor.

Acquiring these tools makes us financially strong and builds our self-confidence which then carries itself forward into other areas of our lives.

Of course there is the need to factor in the potential for unexpected expenses, such as medical bills or family emergencies. Which is why we recommend a few years of cash held in a highly liquid account such as Fidelity® Government Cash Reserves, FDRXX, currently paying over 4%. Access to this cash can also help in market downturns so you are not forced to sell at lower prices in order to live your lifestyle.

Another financial advantage is the ability to minimize taxes.

By retiring early, you may be able to reduce your taxable income and utilize tax-efficient investment strategies. For one thing, you will no longer be paying payroll taxes. Withdrawing money from your retirement accounts in a strategic manner, such as using Rule 72T before you are eligible, can minimize your tax burden in the future and potentially save you a significant amount of money in taxes over time. We did this as a monetary bridge until our Social Security was available. Once we started to receive these payments, we let our IRAs build back up again.

Lifestyle Improvements

Leaving your job or career early also offers a number of lifestyle improvements. For one, you will have more free time to pursue your passions. You could travel more, take up new hobbies, and spend more time with loved ones. We used this opportunity to give end-of=life care to our parents when that time came, something we could not have done while maintaining a full work schedule.

Early retirement can also allow you to lead a healthier lifestyle, with more time to exercise, cook healthier meals, and prioritize your mental health. You could even volunteer and give of your expertise and talents, something you never had time for while working your 9-5.

If you choose to become financially independent outside of your paycheck, you have the ability to avoid burnout. Many people feel overwhelmed by the demands of their jobs, and early retirement can provide a much-needed break while opening up new vistas for you. You are able to take a step back, reflect on your priorities, and perhaps even discover new interests and pursuits.

We did!

Taking advantage of options that seem to just appear

In our case we chose to travel the world, which gave us new perspectives on how to live our own lives. There is no one singular way to do anything, and seeing how other cultures approached community, family, and even the cooking of their food and the learning of a new language, opened up our eyes as well. Continue Reading…