All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Surviving a “Bear Scare” in or just before Retirement

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Billy Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It’s everyone’s nightmare: watching retirement assets vanish in a bear market, especially in or just before retirement.

Many of you will remember the severe market downturn of 2000-2002, the Dot Com Bubble, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37%.

We’d be lying to say that this declining market didn’t affect us. Our finances dropped about the same as most others on a percentage basis. As retirees, with no regular paycheck coming in on Friday, this event could have spelled disaster for our future plans of maintaining our financial independence.

Then there was the 2007-2009 “Great Recession,” where the market fell by almost 50% lasting 17 months, testing our courage.

The 2020 Covid scare shook the market’s foundation, earning the title of the “shortest bear market” in the S&P 500 history, lasting only 33 days.

And now here we are again in 2023, where the market is in the grip of a bear. How much longer will this last? How low will we go?

What should we do? How do we cope?

First, we’ve learned from past bear markets the importance of some cash flow. Having aged a bit and now receiving Social Security we have adjusted our portfolio to a more balanced one adding DVY, iShares Select Dividend ETF as a dividend-producing asset as well as increasing our cash holdings.

Then, there are regular chats about our finances and the state they are in, in hopes of averting a possible worst-case meltdown. We have discussed the fiscal facts and tried to extrapolate them out into the future.

One obvious problem: No one can predict the future.

Friend asks “Billy, why are you investing now? You know the market is crashing, right?” Same friend 10 years later: “Hey Billy I heard you retired early. How did you do that?”

Using history as a guide

Researching bear markets, we take heart from the knowledge that past downturns always ended.

Retiring is definitely easier when markets are rising as compared to when they are falling. But how do you know if you are in a rising or falling market? That depends on your starting point and there has been no 20-year rolling negative returns.

Another question to ask – is this is a good time to buy equities? For every buyer there is a seller and they both think they are right. Maybe the cure for cancer will be announced tomorrow or the global economy will collapse. We just don’t know.

That’s the point. Continue Reading…

The Case for Delaying OAS Payments has Improved

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to the Findependence Hub

Canadians who collect Old Age Security (OAS) now get a 10% increase in benefits when they reach age 75.  The amount of the increase isn’t huge, but it’s better than nothing.  A side effect of this increase is that it makes delaying OAS benefits past age 65 a little more compelling.

The standard age for starting OAS benefits is 65, but you can delay them for up to 5 years in return for a 0.6% increase in benefits for each month you delay.  So, the maximum increase is 36% if you take OAS at 70.

A strategy some retirees use when it comes to the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and OAS is to take them as early as possible and invest the money.  They hope to outperform the CPP and OAS increases they would get if they delayed starting their benefits.  In a previous post I looked at how well their investments would have to perform for this strategy to win.  Here I update the OAS analysis to take into account the 10% OAS increase at age 75.

This analysis is only relevant for those who have enough other income or savings to live on if they delay OAS.  Others with no significant savings and insufficient other income have little choice but to take OAS at 65.

OAS payments are indexed to price inflation, and the increases before you start collecting are also indexed to price inflation.  So, the returns that come from delaying OAS are “real” returns, meaning that they are above inflation.  An investment that earns a 5% real return when inflation is 3% has a nominal return of (1.05)(1.03)-1=8.15%.

In many ways, the OAS rules are much simpler than they are for CPP, but two things are more complex: the OAS clawback and OAS-linked benefits.  For those retirees fortunate enough to have high incomes, OAS is clawed back at the rate of 15% of income over a certain threshold.  This complicates the decision of when to take OAS.  Low-income retirees may be eligible for other benefits once they start collecting OAS.  These factors are outside the scope of my analysis here.

A One-Month Delay Example

Suppose you’re deciding whether to take OAS at age 65 or wait one more month.  For the one month delay, the OAS rules say you’d get an additional 0.6%.  So, for the cost of one missed payment, you’d get 0.6% more until you reach 75.  After that, you’d be getting 0.66% more.

For a planning age of 100, the real return from this delay is a little over 7%.  So, your investments would have to average 7% plus inflation to keep up if you chose to take OAS right away and invest the money.

All the One-Month Delays

The following chart shows the real return of delaying OAS each month for a range of retirement planning ages, based on the assumption that the OAS clawback and delaying additional benefits don’t apply.  The returns are slightly higher than they were before CPP payments rose 10% at age 75. Continue Reading…

The Ins and Outs of Ethical Investing

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By Anita Bruinsma, CFA

Clarity Personal Finance

Most people know that investing in the stock market is a good way to earn higher returns on their investments. Money in savings accounts and GICs doesn’t grow fast enough to keep up with inflation over time. To avoid eroding the value of savings, the stock market is the place to be.

You might agree that you need higher returns, but you might not want to support certain companies or industries for ethical reasons. When you buy a traditional mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF), you will own dozens, hundreds or even thousands of companies. Not all of them will line up with your values.

The stock market is an efficient mechanism for companies to get access to the funding they need to grow – to develop new products, to offer more services, and to produce more goods. Like it or not, we are all part of this ecosystem. It’s impossible to escape. But what if you could earn higher returns while avoiding the worst of the worst companies, the ones you really don’t like?

Enter SRI and ESG investing.

What is SRI, ESG and impact investing?

SRI and ESG investing are terms used to describe ethical investing. Sometimes the terms are used interchangeably, but there are differences.

Socially-responsible investing, or SRI, is a way for investors to own companies that better align with their values, usually by eliminating certain sectors of the economy like oil, tobacco and weapons. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing is a little different – it applies a screen to companies to evaluate their practices as it relates to environmental, social and governance issues. The main difference is that with SRI you are avoiding certain industries, but with ESG you are investing in the “better or less bad” companies. There is a third term: impact investing. This takes things a step further and focusses on companies that are actively doing ethically-appealing activities, like funding community projects, enhancing solar energy technology, or financing local food producers.

For example, an SRI ETF might invest in the U.S. market index but eliminate companies in oil production and weapons manufacturing. An ESG fund might invest in the U.S. market index but exclude the bottom 25% of companies, as ranked by their ESG practices. An impact fund might invest only in solar energy companies.

Three things you need to know

There are some important things to understand about ethical investing before you jump in.

  1. You’re not always getting what you think you’re getting.

Would you be surprised to learn that your ESG fund owns Amazon, a seller of massive amounts of consumer goods that provides same-day, gas-guzzling delivery? Or Halliburton, one of the world’s largest fracking companies? Or Agnico-Eagle, a mining company? The reason they are in the ESG fund is that they are actively doing things to be less bad, or even do some good. They get points for writing a report outlining their environmental practices, like buying electric vehicles, using more green energy in their operations, and doing environment clean-up. Their operations might not be great for the world (although we all use oil and gas, metal, and probably Amazon), but they are offsetting some of the damage by doing good things. Continue Reading…

Defensive Sectors for Retirement

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Defence wins championships say many sports commentators. Defense can be a big winner for retirees as well. In fact, from the massive correction known as the financial crisis (2008-2009 and beyond) using defensive sectors was twice as effective as using bonds. Then, factor in the generous and growing dividends that Canadian retirees embrace, and we might have an unbeatable retirement funding model. Let’s take a quick look at defensive sectors for retirement.

The first question you will likely ask is – “what are the defensive sectors?”

Consumer staples / Healthcare / Utilities

For the utilities sector, we will include the modern utilities known as telco (we can’t live without being hooked up in the modern world). Pipelines are also in the mix.

The 3 defensive sectors are products and services that we can’t live without. And we often do not reduce spending in these categories, even during times of recessions and bear markets.

The sectors are more durable and will typically hold up quite well during the bear markets. Of course, bear markets can pull the rug out of your retirement plans if you are not properly prepared, and are exposed to too much stock market risk. In retirement we are looking to grow and protect.

Defensive sectors for retirees vs the market

Here’s a chart that looks at the defensive sectors in the U.S. vs the S&P 500. It is a retirement funding scenario, where the portfolios are funding retirement at a 4.8% annual spend rate. That is, a million dollar portfolio will deliver $48,000 in year one. Spending will then increase at the rate of inflation.

Here’s building the big dividend retirement portfolio.

Keep in mind that the ETFs used in the example are U.S. dollar funds and belong in U.S. dollar accounts. You may choose to build a stock portfolio from these sectors. That is what I do with great success.

What is shocking is that through just one investment cycle (bear market through bull market), the defensive sectors for retirees finished the period with twice as much as the traditional balanced portfolio approach. Team defense was also better than a mix of defensive sectors and bonds.

Disclaimer: past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Canadian defensive sector ETFs

These ETFs are Canadian dollar ETFs, suitable for Canadian dollar accounts. Some of the ETFs will offer international exposure.

Canadian healthcare ETFs

  • Harvest – HHL
  • BMO – ZHU

Canadian consumer staples ETFs

  • BMO – STPL
  • iShares – XST

Canadian utilities  ETFs

  • iShares – XUT
  • BMO – ZUT
  • BMO Covered Call Utilities – ZWU
  • Horizons – UTIL
  • Hamilton – HUTS. This ETF uses modest leverage.

The all-weather models for retirees

Readers will know that I embrace the all-weather portfolio models for retirement. In the above scenario the time period is almost exclusively during a period of disinflation. Stock markets and bonds love disinflation. In the defensive portfolio there would be no meaningful protection from robust inflation.

The all-weather portfolio – ready for most anything.

Given that I would suggest that you consider adding (bolting on) inflation protection. In Canada, that can be as easy as adding the Purpose Real Asset ETF. That holds a very nice mix of dedicated inflation fighters, from energy stocks, REITs, gold and commodities. Continue Reading…

How 12 Business Leaders invest to Grow their Income

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From getting over the fear of starting to looking into REITs, here are 12 answers to the question, “Can you share your most recommended tips for how you can invest your money to grow your wealth and increase your income, specifically for financial independence through investing?” 

  • Get Started Right Now 
  • Maximize Tax-advantaged Investments
  • Avoid Trying to Time the Market
  • Remember Diversification is More Important Than You Think
  • Put Your Tax Refunds to work
  • Create a High-Yield Savings Account
  • Think of the Market as a Game
  • Prioritize Risk Management Over Chasing High Returns
  • Be Patient and Plan
  • Raise Your Savings Rate by 5% Each Year
  • Repay High-interest Debt
  • Try REIT Index Funds 

Get Started Right Now 

Investing is one of those things that seems like an insurmountable barrier to entry for many people. How can I invest when I don’t have thousands of dollars just kicking around is a common attitude I’ve come across, and in my opinion, it is one of the biggest mistakes toward actually growing your wealth and becoming financially independent. 

The thing is that you actually have to get started: even if it’s a few dollars at a time invested in penny stocks, you’ve got to make a start. Even if the amounts are negligible, you’re gaining invaluable experience in financial markets and financial literacy that will pay massive dividends down the line. — Dragos Badea, CEO, Yarooms

Maximize Tax-advantaged Investments

Both IRAs and 401(k)s have tax advantages [and the equivalent RRSPs and group RRSPs in Canada: editor]. You can choose to deduct your contributions from your taxes or contribute after taxes and avoid taxes when you withdraw during retirement. 

IRAs and 401(k)s are easy to set up. A 401(k) is offered through employers, so if your workplace offers one and matches a percentage of your contributions, take advantage of that matching benefit.

Anyone can start an IRA. You can open an account online today with Fidelity or another firm. Many people assume it’s hard to set up, but it’s not. You can do it in half an hour. 

With both options, you can set up automatic withdrawals from your paycheck. That option helps you succeed in saving because you don’t have to think about it. — Michelle Robbins, Licensed Insurance Agent, Clearsurance.com

Avoid trying to Time the Market

Almost 80% of active fund managers fall behind the major index funds. 

So if these financial professionals can’t beat the market, what chance do ordinary people like you and me have? 

This is why my best investing tip is consistently putting money into an index fund like the S&P 500 without trying to time the market. 

By putting a portion of your salary into an index fund every month for decades, your investments compound, allowing you to build unimaginable amounts of wealth. 

For example, if you put just $300 a month into an index fund growing 8% annually, you’ll have over one million dollars after 40 years. — Scott Lieberman, Owner, Touchdown Money

Remember Diversification is more Important than you Think

Portfolio diversification is a powerful tool that can help protect your investments against large losses due to market downturns. By selecting assets with low correlation, you are essentially increasing the safety of your portfolio while pursuing rewards. This strategy has become indispensable for individual investors and financial advisors alike: after all, who wouldn’t want some extra security for their hard-earned money?

If you split them between two different companies, such as Invest A and B — one providing package deliveries and another offering video conferencing services — you’ll have far less reason for worry in times of economic hardship or other disruptive events! Look at how gas shortages can fuel success with Investment B: when stock prices dip on account of limited resources, people switch to digital communication tools from home, which ultimately benefits Investment B’s performance. — Derek Sall, Founder and Financial Expert, Life and My Finances

Put your Tax Refunds to work

Using your tax refunds to invest is a wise investing tactic to consider that you may have never thought about: for many, the short-term sacrifice is worth the long-term benefits, especially as you settle into life after work. 

This is a great way to supplement your current income or even a retirement account, or jump-start a new investment account. Tax refunds can also be used for other pivotal financial reasons, including paying off debt, funding an IRA, building a health savings account, and creating an emergency stash. — Dakota McDaniels, Chief Product Officer, Pluto

Open a High-Yield Savings Account

While savings accounts aren’t exciting ways to grow your wealth, online banks are currently paying 3-4% interest. While 3-4% might not seem like much, it only takes a few minutes to set up an account, meaning you can earn interest risk-free while also keeping your money easily accessible. — Larissa Pickens, Co-Founder, Worksion

Think of the Market as a Game

For investing, I always tell people to think of the stock market as a big game of poker.

Invest in real estate: “I like to think of real estate as the gift that keeps on giving. With rental properties, you’re not just earning income from tenants, but also building equity over time.”

Start your own business: “Entrepreneurship is not for the faint of heart, but neither is settling for a mediocre 9-5 job. Starting your own business is like taking a leap of faith and trusting that you’ve got what it takes to make it happen. Just remember to pack a parachute.”

Invest in yourself: “Investing in yourself is like planting a money tree, except instead of watering it with H2O, you’re watering it with knowledge and experience. So, go ahead and take that online course, attend that industry conference, or volunteer for that new project. Your future self will thank you.” — Russ Turner, Director, GallantCEO 

Prioritize Risk Management over Chasing High Returns

Although even small returns can accumulate into significant wealth through compounding, a single failed investment can cause a substantial loss. 

To mitigate risk, I employ the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy when investing in the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is already a diversified index, reducing the risk associated with individual stock investing. Furthermore, the DCA strategy further minimizes risk by investing fixed amounts of money at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s ups and downs.  Continue Reading…