All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

MoneySense Retired Money feature on Canada’s new “Tontine” Retirement solutions

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the revolutionary “Tontine” type Retire Solution announced by Guardian Capital and finance professor Moshe Milevsky earlier this month. My initial take was here on the Hub and the more in-depth MoneySense feature story can be viewed by clicking on this highlighted headline: Tontines in Canada — Moving from Theory to Practice as a solution to our Retirement Crisis.

We’ve illustrated this blog with financial projections of one of the three new Guardian Capital Retirement solutions developed in partnership with Milevsky. Some of the ideas were adapted from Milevsky’s latest book: How to Build a Modern Tontine. The theory behind this book is a driving force for Guardian Capital’s efforts to commercize these concepts and put them in the hands of retirees and would-be retirees worried about outliving their money. Nobel Laureate Economist William Sharpe has described this as “the nastiest, hardest problem in finance.”

Milvesky’s book is certainly aimed at industry practitioners and sophisticated financial advisors and investors, and contains a lot of mathematics that may beyond the reach of average investors or retirees. So rather than attempt to review it, we’ll move on to the efforts to bring these ideas to the market. What Milevsky calls “tontine thinking” is belatedly showing up in the marketplace in Canada, starting last year with Purpose Investments’ and now with three different solutions from Guardian Capital. Hub readers also can read an excerpt of the book which ran earlier Wednesday: Longevity Insurance vs Credits — a Primer.

All this has been a long time coming. MoneySense readers may recall two of my Retired Money columns about Milevsky and the future of tontines published in 2015: Part one is here and part two here. Also see my 2018 column that explains tontines in detail: Why Ottawa needs to push for tontine-like annuities.

Last June (2021), Purpose got the tontine ball rolling in Canada with its Purpose Longevity Fund. Here’s my MoneySense take on that one: Is the Longevity Pension Fund a cure for Retirement Income Worries? 

As the MoneySense feature explains, Milevsky is Guardian Capital’s Chief Retirement Architect. It sums up the original 2021 launch of Purpose Longevity Fund, and how it compares to Guardian’s three solutions.

Think of Purpose’s product as a lower-case tontine, and Guardian Capital’s as a Tontine with a capital T.

Guardian Capital’s Modern Tontine  

Guardian Capital’s September 7th press release uses the term “Modern Tontine.” There, Guardian Capital Managing Director and Head of Canadian Retail Asset Management Barry Gordon said “With our modern tontine, investors concerned about outliving their nest egg pool their assets and are entitled to their share of the pool as it winds up 20 years from now … Over that 20-year period, we seek to grow the invested capital as much as possible to maximize the longevity payout.”

 Along the way, investors who redeem early or pass away leave a portion of their assets in the pool to the benefit of surviving unitholders, boosting the rate of return. “All surviving unitholders in 20 years will participate in any growth in the tontine’s assets, generated from compound growth and the pooling of survivorship credits. This payout can be used to fund their later years of life as they see fit, and aims to ensure that investors don’t outlive their investment portfolio.” Continue Reading…

Moshe Milevsky and Guardian Capital unveil a Modern Tontine in new Retirement solution

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Moshe Milevsky

A revolutionary new approach to preserving portfolio longevity through a modern “Tontine” structure was unveiled Wednesday by Guardian Capital LP and famed author and finance professor Moshe Milevsky.

GuardPath™ Longevity Solutions, created in partnership between Guardian and Schulich School of Business finance professor Milevsky, is designed to address what Nobel Laureate Economist William Sharpe has described as the “nastiest, hardest problem in finance” 1

Announced in Toronto on September 7, a press release declares that the “ground-breaking step” aims to “solve the misalignment between human and portfolio longevity.” See also this story in Wednesday’s Globe & Mail.

Over the years, I have often interviewed Dr. Milevsky about Retirement, Longevity, Annuities and his unique take on how the ancient “Tontine” structure can help long-lived investors in their quest not to outlive their money. Milevsky has written 17 books, including his most recent one on this exact topic: How to Build a Modern Tontine. [See cover photo below.]

Back in 2015, I wrote two MoneySense Retired Money columns on tontines and Milevsky’s hopes that they would one day be incorporated by the financial industry. Part one is here and part two here. See also my 2021 column on another pioneering Canadian initiative in longevity insurance: Purpose Investment Inc.’s Longevity Pension Fund.

Addressing the biggest risks faced by Retirees

In the release, Milevsky describes the new offering as a “made-in-Canada” solution that addresses “the biggest risks facing retirees and are among the first of their kind globally. Based on hundreds of years of research and improvement and backed by Guardian Capital’s 60-year reputation for doing what’s right for Canadian investors, I am confident these solutions will revolutionize the retirement space.”

Milevsky’s latest book is on Modern Tontines

In an email to me Milevsky said: “You and I have talked (many times) about tontines as a possible solution for retirement income decumulation versus annuities. Until now it’s all been academic theory and published books, but I finally managed to convince a (Canadian) company to get behind the idea.”

In the news release, Guardian Capital Managing Director and Head of Canadian Retail Asset Management Barry Gordon said that “for too many years, Canadian retirees have feared outliving the nest egg they have worked so hard to create.” It has answered that concern by creating three solutions that aim to alleviate retirees’ greatest financial fears: The three solutions are described at the bottom of this blog.

With the number of persons aged 85 and older having doubled since 2001, and projections suggesting this number could triple by 2046,2 Guardian Capital says it “set out to create innovative solutions that this demographic could utilize when seeking a greater sense of financial security.”

Tontines leap from Pop Culture to 21st Century reality

Tontines were one of the most popular financial products for hundreds of years for individuals willing to trade off legacy for more income, Guardian says. Once in a  while the tontine shows up in popular culture, notably in the film The Wrong Box, where the plot revolves around a group of people hoping to be the last survivor in a tontine and therefore the recipient of a large payout.

“With our modern tontine, investors concerned about outliving their nest egg pool their assets and are entitled to their share of the pool as it winds up 20 years from now,” Gordon says, “Over that 20-year period, we seek to grow the invested capital as much as possible to maximize the longevity payout. Along the way, investors that redeem early or pass away leave a portion of their assets in the pool to the benefit of surviving unitholders, boosting the rate of return. All surviving unitholders in 20 years will participate in any growth in the tontine’s assets, generated from compound growth and the pooling of survivorship credits. This payout can be used to fund their later years of life as they see fit, and aims to ensure that investors don’t outlive their investment portfolio.” Continue Reading…

Canadians’ Debt grew to all-time high in second quarter: TransUnion

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Source: TransUnion Canada consumer credit database.

The double whammy of Inflation and rising interest rates are starting to be reflected in higher debt levels for Canadians, according to data released by TransUnion on Tuesday.

The  Q2 2022 Credit Industry Insights Report reveals that Canadians are vulnerable to payment shock as a result of high interest rates and inflation challenges: “While there have still been gains in GDP growth and low unemployment, they are being offset by higher interest rates and cost of living. This lead to higher credit balances and increased costs of mortgages and loans.”

The report shows total debt grew to an all-time high at $2.24 trillion, up 9.2% year-over-year (YoY) and up 16.4% from pre-pandemic levels observed at the end of 2019. The number of consumers with a credit balance has increased by 2.1% YoY to 27.6 million and is up 2.5% from pre-pandemic levels (Q4 2019).

You can find the full press release here.

Among the highlights:

  • Household finances were worse than planned for 41% of consumers, with 48% reporting they had cut back on discretionary spending. A startling 26% of consumers expect to be unable to repay their bills and loans.
  • Total debt grew to an all-time high at $2.24 trillion, up 9.2% from the same time in 2021 and up 16.4% from pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.
  • Consumer delinquency on personal loans has returned to pre-pandemic levels, up 19 base points (bps) YoY to 0.93%. Credit card delinquency is also up six bps from the prior year same quarter.
  • Increased balance growth was observed across all risk tiers, with super prime consumers continuing to build overall outstanding balances (+5.1% YoY).

In the release, TransUnion director of financial services research and consulting Matt Fabian says: “With the combination of higher cost of living and higher spend driving up credit balances, along with the recent surge in mortgages and auto loans, many Canadian consumers are under pressure from higher debt service obligations … We’ve seen an increase in miminum payment amounts of up to 10% in the first half of 2022, depending on the combination of products consumers hold, along with a slight deterioration in payment behaviours.”

As shown in the chart below, all major credit products saw an increase in average balance per borrower, which TransUnion says indicates the consumer need to leverage credit.

Fabian added that “During the pandemic we saw a decline in credit participation among below prime consumers, so this marks a re-engagement of this segment as potentially the effects of inflation and interest rates have driven demand, while lenders have increased their risk appetite in this space.”

The report shows that overall, consumer-level delinquencies (borrowers more than 90 days past due on any account) increased by four basis points (bps) over the prior year same quarter, but still remain below pre-pandemic levels. “Consumer delinquency on personal loans has returned to pre-pandemic levels, up 19 bps YoY, to 0.93%.” Credit card delinquency (90 days or more past due) is higher by six bps from the prior year same quarter.

TransUnion says the increase in consumer delinquencies is partially explained by accelerated lender origination activity, especially in the below-prime space: “The YoY rises in delinquencies are generally small and not a major concern, given the increased credit activity observed post pandemic. As credit activity recovers and grows further, consumer credit performance is expected to return to near pre-pandemic levels.”

An update on Findependence Day

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Regular readers of this site [FindependenceHub.com] probably know that it sprang from another site that was created in 2008 to help sell copies of the original Canadian edition of my financial novel, Findependence Day. I am writing this blog somewhat sheepishly as it turns out that that site is no longer available under the original URL. That URL was the title of the book followed by .com but this post is to warn anyone that the new site currently residing on that domain has nothing to do with me or the Hub. Sadly, we no longer own that URL.

I won’t even provide a link here because I can’t vouch for what may occur there: earlier this week we took down the link to it from the Hub, as it took casual browsers to a different site that appears to originate from India. I realize some readers may out of curiosity be tempted to click on the link but if they do would urge them to heed any warnings that may generate; it may or may not be a legitimate site, and therefore could compromise the computer or device of anyone who visits the site and clicks on any portion of it.

Second US edition via Best Buy Books (updated in 2021)

How to buy the original book and subsequent US edition

That said, there are still ways to purchase the original book and subsequent revised U.S. editions. You can find used copies of the original Canadian edition as well as the latest US edition at Abe Books. They also sell copies of some of my other books, including The Wealthy Boomer and the co-authored Victory Lap Retirement.

We do not sell the two US editions directly but they are available directly from either Trafford.com [published in 2013] or Best Books Media [updated and published in 2021.] Hard-cover, paperbacks and e-book versions of the U.S. Trafford version are available at Trafford or via Amazon Canada.  In addition, Chapters Indigo offers hardcover or paperback versions as well as a Kobo ebook version. 

I introduced the newest US edition on July 1st, 2021 here on the Hub. See why by clicking on An interview with myself. The Best Books Media edition is also available in hardcover, paperback and ebook formats at Barnes & Noble.

The hardcover version is also available at The Book Depositary. Here is the publisher blurb from that site:

Findependence Day presents personal finance in a “can’t put down” story format easily digested by young adults entering the workforce and the world of money. Because money problems often cause marital breakups, it focuses on the financial journey of a young couple who experience the usual ups and downs of job loss, buying homes, raising children, investing and pensions, starting businesses, coping with stock market volatility, and more.

The secrets of financial independence are critical wherever you are in the financial life cycle:

– Newlyweds embarking on family formation will discover the importance of financial planning.

– Debt-plagued graduates will be motivated to embrace “guerrilla frugality.”

First U.S. edition from Trafford, 2013

How to get the original Canadian edition directly from me

While used copies of the 2008 edition can be had for as little as $4 or $5 on some of the sites flagged above, shipping charges will put the final tab well above $10.  But you can still buy brand new copies of the original edition directly from me for $16, postage included, and I’d be glad to sign them and write a short message.

We hope to build a landing page from the Hub in due course that will let interested readers buy the original book through PayPal or credit cards, as was the case on the now-disappeared site.

In the meantime, copies of the 2008 Canadian edition can be purchased directly from me by emailing me at jonchevreau8@gmail.com or mailing a cheque for $16 payable to J. Chevreau Enterprises Inc., 22 Thirty Sixth St., Etobicoke, Ont., M8W 3K9. The $16 price includes GST.

Make sure you include your own mailing address so we can send it via Canada Post. That email can also be used for e-transfers. We absorb the GST. Cartons of 36 copies are also still available for $105 plus postage (roughly $30): some financial advisors find this to be a cost-effective giveaway for clients and prospects.

 

Retired Money: All about the OAS boost at age 75 and implications of deferring OAS and CPP benefits

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a rare 10% boost of Old Age Security (OAS benefits) Ottawa recently confirmed for seniors aged 75. As you’ll see there are plenty of implications and points to consider for those who are younger and contemplating deferring OAS to 70, or indeed CPP.

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Delaying CPP and OAS — Is it worth the Wait?

The National Institute for Aging (NIA) confirmed OAS payments for Canadians aged 75 or older will be hiked 10%: the first permanent increase in almost 50 years. The NIA’s Director of Financial Security Research, Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, and Associate Fellow Doug Chandler said in the release the best way for retirees to maximize this boost is to defer OAS benefits for as long as possible, either by working longer or by using their savings to fund the delay.

By now, most retirees are aware they can boost Canada Pension Plan (CPP) benefits by 42% by delaying the onset of benefits from age 65 to 70, or 0.7% for each month of deferral after 65.  What’s less well known is that a similar mechanism works for OAS. Unlike CPP, OAS is never available before age 65, but by delaying OAS benefits for 5 years to age 70, you can boost final payments by 36%, or 0.6% more for each month you delay benefits after 65, according to the NIA. Before the August increase at age 75, the NIA said average Canadians would “leave on the table” $10,000; but after factoring in the new increase, they would now lose out on $13,000 by taking OAS at 65.

MacDonald and Chandler noted there are three other reasons to postpone OAS benefits: Reduced clawbacks of the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) after age 70; Better OAS benefits despite clawbacks for those with more retirement income: and Increasing residency requirements. On point one, it says lower-income seniors wishing to avoid GIS income-tested clawbacks could draw down on RRSP savings to defer and boost OAS benefits, thereby preserving GIS payments after 70. On point 2, those subject to OAS clawbacks may find the age 75 boost in combination with delaying benefits may increase benefits but not the clawback. And on point 3, waiting may mean more years of residency for those who have not lived their entire years in Canada: to qualify for OAS you need to have been a Canadian resident for at least 10 years after age 18, so the five extra years of waiting for benefits could add to the payout.

However, on the first point retired actuary and retirement expert Malcolm Hamilton says it’s true deferring OAS until 70 and drawing more from your RRIF to compensate, means your RRIF income after 70 will be smaller and OAS pension larger. “However, by not drawing OAS until 70, low-income seniors will forfeit the full GIS benefit before 70. This doesn’t look like a good plan to me.” Continue Reading…