All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

BBC StoryWorks #2: The case for staying with variable rate mortgages at today’s interest rates

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The second article of six planned to appear on the BBC StoryWorks website in Canada has now been published. You can find it by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Strategies for a Low-Interest World.

As explained in the first instalment, the articles (written by me) looks at Covid-19 and the impact on the real estate and mortgage industry. The articles will appear every week and run into November.  Later articles will look at the case for locking in to fixed-rate mortgages, the investing experience following Covid, optimum strategies going forward and close with retirement strategies in the age of Covid.

The second article just posted looks at why variable-rate mortgages may still be the optimum route for homeowners to go, seeing as interest rates seem destined to remain “lower for longer.” Mortgage rates are as low as anyone could reasonably have hoped to see in their lifetimes, but rock-bottom rates are also putting upward pressure on home prices. As noted in the first article, even prices of suburban and rural properties are rising, as the pandemic changes the supply/demand dynamics of where we work and live.

Rates are unlikely to spike upwards as long as the pandemic is a factor. Based on recent statements by central Banks around the world, it’s reasonable to expect interest rates will remain “lower for longer,” if not indefinitely at least for the foreseeable future. In mid-September the US federal reserve said rates won’t be raised before 2023.

Both fixed and variable rate mortgages are under 2%

In Canada, fixed and variable rate mortgages are being offered at less than 2%.   Continue Reading…

Canadian Financial Summit 2020 is now online

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The four-day Canadian Financial Summit 2020 edition kicks off at 8 pm EST (5 pm PST) tonight (Oct. 14): an all-virtual event featuring 30 personal finance speakers and financial bloggers. You can get tickets and catch up here. Tickets are free via the website.

After kicking off with a webcast tonight, the online event runs till this Saturday, October 17.

Kornel Szrejber

The summit’s host is Kornel Szrejber, who runs the finance and investing podcast The Build Wealth Canada Show.  Szrejber [pictured right] says on the site that he became one of Canada’s youngest retirees at age 32 (“before I got bored and took on the Podcast and Summit as passion projects,”) following a career in the financial planning and investing industry.

The event will also feature the experiences of two others who are among Canada’s youngest retirees, Kristy Shen and Bryce Leung, who will pass on their wisdom about how they reached retirement at so tender an age.

Scheduled speakers include Rob Carrick of the Globe & Mail, former Toronto Star financial columnist and consumer advocate Ellen Roseman, and Financial Post columnist Peter Hodson.

There are also several names that should be familiar to regular Hub readers: BoomerandEcho’s Robb Engen, MyOwnAdvisor’s Mark Seed and certified financial planner Ed Rempel. (The Hub often republishes their blogs.)

You can see some of the other speakers below, including Tom Drake, Kyle Prevost and other well known bloggers and personal finance gurus.

 

Continue Reading…

My review of Bob Woodward’s Rage: “Trump is the wrong man for the job.”

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Amazon.com

This will likely be my last review of a book on Donald Trump before the November election. Hopefully, he will be swept out of power and we’ll never again have to pay attention to Trump books or anything else to do with the man.

For those who have missed my earlier reviews, we looked at several early Trump books and how it may affect investors in this blog originally published at MoneySense.ca.

Then, this summer we looked at Mary Trump’s Too Much and Never Enough (here) and then Michael Cohen’s Disloyal (here.) While we have been slowly reading John Bolton’s The Room Where It Happened, we will probably not review it.

As for Woodward, Rage is his second book devoted to Trump (the first was Fear). Woodward has previously written books on four previous presidents. Trump did not grant interviews to him for Fear but famously submitted to 17 interviews for Rage, all but one of them tape-recorded.

That in itself was the basis for various Facebook memes where the ghost of a disgraced Richard Nixon chides Trump for the idiocy of letting Bob Woodward [whose reporting famously took Nixon down] tape-record him. When the early review copies of Rage came out, the focus was almost exclusively on Trump’s early admissions (on tape, no less) that he knew Coronavirus would be very serious but that he deliberately downplayed it.

Rage, by the way, refers to the emotion Trump evokes in much of the public, notably the Liberals he seems to go out of his way to antagonize. The term comes from Trump himself, reprinted in the book’s preliminary material: “I bring rage out. I do bring rage out. I always have.”

Access to Trump both a plus and a liability

With such extended access to a long-winded Trump, Rage by necessity offers yet another platform for Trump himself to pontificate, defend and blame, as if his Twitter feed and access to the Fox News’s of the world were not enough. All told, this consumes a fair bit of space, so you get plenty of content that doesn’t add much value, such as Trump awarding himself an “A” in his handling of the Coronavirus panic; or his contention that his predecessor, Obama, wasn’t so smart or a great speaker. Meanwhile Trump insists “I went to the best schools. i did great.” As you might expect, Trump’s obsession with Obama is never far away in his Woodward interviews, as here: “Ninety percent of the things he’s done, I’ve taken apart.”

But Woodward is writing as much for posterity as for present-day readers, and no doubt future historians will pore through these interview excerpts with great interest. Continue Reading…

A new blog series on Covid’s impact on housing and mortgages

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The BBC Storyworks site in Canada has launched a 6-part series written by me about Covid-19 and the impact on housing and the mortgage industry. The articles will appear weekly, starting this week. Later articles will look at mortgage options, the investing experience following Covid, optimum investment strategies going forward and close with retirement strategies in the age of Covid.

The first article went up on Thursday and covers how the Work-from-Home phenomenon has impacted where we all live and work. You can find the full piece by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Rethinking Home Base. The series is sponsored by TD Bank.

Working from home is now mainstream, whether temporarily for those still employed, or as a more enduring shift to home-based self-employment. Many technology companies now let employees work from home: some until 2021, some permanently.

“Covid-19 shaped the real estate market during the second quarter in every possible way,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal Lepage. Its latest housing survey showed home prices rising sharply, with supply struggling to keep up with a surge in demand: “As the reality of extended and potentially permanent work-from-home employment sunk in, people pondered both the location and size of their homes,” he said in a release on the survey, “Simply put, larger homes in smaller communities have become more fashionable.”

Many urban homeowners are selling their expensive city homes and swapping them for bigger places in the suburbs or cottage country. Not surprisingly, and as Reuters recently reported, there’s a severe glut of office space in New York City. Many REITs with heavy exposure to offices and malls have been hard hit.

Consumer spending patterns changing too

Covid has changed consumer spending patterns, with less eating out and reduced need for new clothes for the office. Meanwhile, cooped-up homeowners are landscaping back yards, and adding pools and decks. These home-based workers are upgrading computers and office equipment, upgrading smartphones, adding peripherals from Logitech or HP Inc., trekking to Home Depot to retrofit workspaces and ordering furniture online from RH or Wayfair. They stay in touch with customers through technologies like Zoom or Skype. They collaborate with remote co-workers through Slack or Microsoft Teams. They close deals with electronic signatures from firms like DocuSign, while medical professionals consult via telemedicine tools like Teladoc.

Cottage country booming

Cottage country is experiencing a massive sales boom. The story says veteran Collingwood realtor Karen Willison is swamped with business from urban refugees. Far from creating bargains, Covid has elevated home prices across the board, especially those with waterfront.

New retirees figure prominently: Pre-Covid some clients who thought they’d retire in two years are speeding up plans. We’ll look at this aspect more later in the series.

 

Retired Money: How Vanguard’s 4% targeted payout on VRIF makes it easier for retirees to draw income

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at Vanguard Canada’s new targeted 4% annual payout vehicle for retirees and near-retirees, provided by its new VRIF ETF. You can find the full article by clicking on the highlighted headline: The lowdown on Vanguard’s Retirement Income ETF: can you rely on its 4% payout target?

The Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio [VRIF/TSX] started trading Sept. 16th and offers retirees and near-retirees a 4% targeted — as opposed to guaranteed — payout. See also the Hub’s republication of Robb Engen’s preview on VRIF that appeared first on his BoomerandEcho site.

Positioned as a “Decumulation” product for retirees and near-retirees, it’s probably no coincidence that the 4% target is nicely in line with the long-established 4% Rule discussed on the Hub and MoneySense earlier this summer.

While a targeted return is NOT a guarantee – unlike the guaranteed but puny rates paid by GICs these days – Vanguard expects it will attract a fair amount of money from income-oriented investors suffering sticker shock when their GICs mature. Currently, many 1-year GICs pay around 0.5%, ranging from as little as 0.3% to no more than 1.1%. Even going out to 5-year terms, they’re typically paying only 1.4%, ranging from under 1% to 2% in the best case.

Technically, those GIC returns are “guaranteed”  but a cynic might say they’re guaranteed to lose money on an after-tax, inflation-adjusted “real return” basis. Based on recent statements by the Bank of Canada and US federal reserve, this is not likely to improve before 2023. In the UK there are even renewed whispers of negative rates.

Of course, to achieve the 4% targeted payout, investors still have to bear some stock-market risk. VRIF consists of eight existing Vanguard stock and bond ETFs with an asset mix of roughly 50% stocks and 50% bonds.

VRIF has much lower fees than comparable income mutual funds and income ETFs

Monthly income mutual funds and ETFs have been around for years but as is typical, Vanguard aims to be the low-cost leader in the category. With such tiny returns from the fixed-income component, those costs are an important determinant of how much money is left for investors. The full MoneySense article recaps the fees relative to existing income mutual funds and income ETFs. Continue Reading…