All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

A new blog series on Covid’s impact on housing and mortgages

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The BBC Storyworks site in Canada has launched a 6-part series written by me about Covid-19 and the impact on housing and the mortgage industry. The articles will appear weekly, starting this week. Later articles will look at mortgage options, the investing experience following Covid, optimum investment strategies going forward and close with retirement strategies in the age of Covid.

The first article went up on Thursday and covers how the Work-from-Home phenomenon has impacted where we all live and work. You can find the full piece by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Rethinking Home Base. The series is sponsored by TD Bank.

Working from home is now mainstream, whether temporarily for those still employed, or as a more enduring shift to home-based self-employment. Many technology companies now let employees work from home: some until 2021, some permanently.

“Covid-19 shaped the real estate market during the second quarter in every possible way,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal Lepage. Its latest housing survey showed home prices rising sharply, with supply struggling to keep up with a surge in demand: “As the reality of extended and potentially permanent work-from-home employment sunk in, people pondered both the location and size of their homes,” he said in a release on the survey, “Simply put, larger homes in smaller communities have become more fashionable.”

Many urban homeowners are selling their expensive city homes and swapping them for bigger places in the suburbs or cottage country. Not surprisingly, and as Reuters recently reported, there’s a severe glut of office space in New York City. Many REITs with heavy exposure to offices and malls have been hard hit.

Consumer spending patterns changing too

Covid has changed consumer spending patterns, with less eating out and reduced need for new clothes for the office. Meanwhile, cooped-up homeowners are landscaping back yards, and adding pools and decks. These home-based workers are upgrading computers and office equipment, upgrading smartphones, adding peripherals from Logitech or HP Inc., trekking to Home Depot to retrofit workspaces and ordering furniture online from RH or Wayfair. They stay in touch with customers through technologies like Zoom or Skype. They collaborate with remote co-workers through Slack or Microsoft Teams. They close deals with electronic signatures from firms like DocuSign, while medical professionals consult via telemedicine tools like Teladoc.

Cottage country booming

Cottage country is experiencing a massive sales boom. The story says veteran Collingwood realtor Karen Willison is swamped with business from urban refugees. Far from creating bargains, Covid has elevated home prices across the board, especially those with waterfront.

New retirees figure prominently: Pre-Covid some clients who thought they’d retire in two years are speeding up plans. We’ll look at this aspect more later in the series.

 

Retired Money: How Vanguard’s 4% targeted payout on VRIF makes it easier for retirees to draw income

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at Vanguard Canada’s new targeted 4% annual payout vehicle for retirees and near-retirees, provided by its new VRIF ETF. You can find the full article by clicking on the highlighted headline: The lowdown on Vanguard’s Retirement Income ETF: can you rely on its 4% payout target?

The Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio [VRIF/TSX] started trading Sept. 16th and offers retirees and near-retirees a 4% targeted — as opposed to guaranteed — payout. See also the Hub’s republication of Robb Engen’s preview on VRIF that appeared first on his BoomerandEcho site.

Positioned as a “Decumulation” product for retirees and near-retirees, it’s probably no coincidence that the 4% target is nicely in line with the long-established 4% Rule discussed on the Hub and MoneySense earlier this summer.

While a targeted return is NOT a guarantee – unlike the guaranteed but puny rates paid by GICs these days – Vanguard expects it will attract a fair amount of money from income-oriented investors suffering sticker shock when their GICs mature. Currently, many 1-year GICs pay around 0.5%, ranging from as little as 0.3% to no more than 1.1%. Even going out to 5-year terms, they’re typically paying only 1.4%, ranging from under 1% to 2% in the best case.

Technically, those GIC returns are “guaranteed”  but a cynic might say they’re guaranteed to lose money on an after-tax, inflation-adjusted “real return” basis. Based on recent statements by the Bank of Canada and US federal reserve, this is not likely to improve before 2023. In the UK there are even renewed whispers of negative rates.

Of course, to achieve the 4% targeted payout, investors still have to bear some stock-market risk. VRIF consists of eight existing Vanguard stock and bond ETFs with an asset mix of roughly 50% stocks and 50% bonds.

VRIF has much lower fees than comparable income mutual funds and income ETFs

Monthly income mutual funds and ETFs have been around for years but as is typical, Vanguard aims to be the low-cost leader in the category. With such tiny returns from the fixed-income component, those costs are an important determinant of how much money is left for investors. The full MoneySense article recaps the fees relative to existing income mutual funds and income ETFs. Continue Reading…

Book Review: 12 takeaways from Michael Cohen’s Trump book, Disloyal

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There are of course a glut of books about Donald Trump, especially now we’re fewer than two months away from the U.S. election. We have previously looked at several of these from an investment point of view, and most recently Mary Trump’s book, Too Much and Never Enough.

On the weekend I read Michael Cohen’s Disloyal, which — like Mary Trump’s book — provides the kind of insider perspective that outsider journalists and authors can’t quite match. Cohen spent a decade as Donald Trump’s personal lawyer and “fixer” and as he says in the book, “I know where the skeletons are buried, because I helped bury them.”

In its review this week, the Washington Post is a bit harsh on Cohen but I found the book to be among the most insightful I have read about Trump: certainly more enlightening than John Bolton’s snoozer, or some of the early journalistic books like Michael Wolff’s Fire & Fury.

Below are a dozen takeaways that provide either insights not before quite articulated, or which seem to bear repeating. While much of what follows may be known or hinted at it in earlier books and journalistic investigations, Cohen wraps it all up with his ten years of close observance of Trump as he evolved from real estate hustler to Reality Show “star” and now his turn as the Reality TV president.

Clearly, Cohen views Trump as a purely transactional beast who cares little for anything but his own hide and possibly his close family members. He doesn’t come out and say it explicitly but my own view of Trump is that he epitomizes the single-minded pursuit of the four goals cherished by many in this secular society: Money, Power, Sex and Fame. And give him credit for this if nothing else: he certainly has attained copious quantities of all four.

1.) Motivation to run in the first place was as a “lark and a PR stunt.”

Trump, largely at Cohen’s instigation, initially decided to run for president because “it would be cool” and as “a lark and a P.R. stunt.” Or as Cohen has famously said, the presidency would prove to be “the greatest infomercial in the history of politics.” Not exactly noble motivations and there’s not a hint of even pretending it was ever about “public service.” Even if Trump’s team thinks he deserves the Noble Prize (which his team infamously misspelled the other day, when the correct spelling of course is “Nobel,” after Alfred Nobel.)

2.) What’s with the Putin obsession?

Trump’s fascination for Russia’s Vladimir Putin is based on his perception that Putin is also the richest man in the world, and therefore hugely influential. He also serves as a model for the “dictator for life” aspiration Trump clearly harbours. And, Cohen insists that should he lose the November election, he will try to find a way not to leave.

3.) “a cheat, a liar, a fraud, a bully, a racist, a predator, a con man.”   

No surprise here on this list of character traits. From page 15 of the e-book I read on SCRIBD:

“…. I bore witness to the real man, in strip clubs, shady business meetings, and in the unguarded moments when he revealed who he really was: a cheat, a liar, a fraud, a bully, a racist, a predator, a con man.”

It’s been previously reported how Trump has repeatedly stiffed contractors but Cohen cites several particular examples, including even those that backfired: like when he tried to welch on one of those famous $130,000 porn star payoffs covered by the tabloid National Enquirer.

4.) Pathological lying and baseless smears

The dirty tricks and pathological lying will continue. Cohen nicely recaps how the birtherism lie about Barack Obama originated, which first propelled Trump to media prominence. Similarly, he recaps the shameful smears that let Trump eliminate his Republican rivals in 2015-2016, ending with the smear about Ted Cruz’s father’s alleged (and ridiculous) role in the assassination of JFK.

5.) Sexual allegations

There’s plenty of salacious material about Trump’s sexual predator inclinations, both as the owner of beauty pageants and various ogling incidents, including ones about Cohen’s own daughter on a tennis court. That same daughter declared soon after Trump’s run was announced that he “wasn’t qualified” to become president. Out of the mouths of babes …. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: How to play the 5G Revolution

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5G wireless will facilitate A.I., blockchain, Internet of Things, Smart Cities and other technologies.

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at an investing theme that’s very popular in various newsletter services, and just now hitting the market: 5G, or Fifth Generation wireless Internet. Click on the highlighted headline to retrieve the full column: Investing in 5G.

One thing the Covid bear market has revealed is the popularity of technology in general, mostly epitomized by stocks trading on the Nasdaq exchange. True, the market has mostly recovered, but few think the tech wave is going away any time soon: certainly not the tens of thousands of young investors who flock to the Robinhood trading site.

5G is a key technology, not just for its own sake but because of several allied technologies it enables.

Recall that currently we are in 4G, which succeeded 1G, 2G and 3G. 1G was the technology that enabled the first cell phones; 2G brought text messaging, 3G was Internet access for cell phones and 4G higher speeds (albeit in overloaded networks.)

5G describes the technological  innovations and infrastructure that will support the next era of connective technology. But don’t fall into the trap of thinking 5G is just 20% more powerful than 4G. In fact, it’s orders of magnitude more bandwidth, meaning blazing Internet speeds and almost no latency (waiting) times.

5G igniting explosion in AI, IOT, Blockchain and other technologies

The need for a quantum leap in Internet speed may have become apparent during the Covid lockdown, when the whole world discovered the benefits of work-from-home technologies like Zoom or  Cisco’s Webex. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: You can still count on 4% Rule but there are alternatives to settling for less

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MoneySense.ca; Photo created by senivpetro – www.freepik.com

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at that perpetually useful guideline known as the 4% Rule. Click on the highlighted headline to access the full article online: Is the 4% Rule Obsolete?

As originally postulated by CFP and author William Bengen, that’s the Rule of Thumb that retirees can safely withdraw 4% of the value of their portfolio each year without fear of running out of money in retirement, with adjustments for inflation.

But does the Rule still hold when interest rates are approaching zero? Personally I still find it useful, even though I mentally take it down to 3% to adjust for my personal pessimism about rates and optimism that I will live a long healthy life. The column polls several experts, some of whom still find it a useful starting point, while others believe several adjustments may be necessary.

Fee-only planner Robb Engen, the blogger behind Boomer & Echo, is “not a fan of the 4% rule.” For one, he says Canadians are forced to withdraw increasingly higher amounts once we convert our RRSPs into RRIFs so the 4% Rule is “not particularly useful either … We’re also living longer, and there’s a movement to want to retire earlier. So shouldn’t that mean a safe withdrawal rate of much less than 4%?”

It’s best to be flexible. It may be intuitively obvious but if your portfolio is way down, you should withdraw less than 4% a year. If and when it recovers, you can make up for it by taking out more than 4%. “This might still average 4% over the long term but you are going to give your portfolio a much higher likelihood of being sustainable.”

Still, some experts are still enthusiastic about the rule.  On his site earlier this year, republished here on the Hub, Robb Engen cited U.S. financial planning expert Michael Kitces, who believes there’s a highly probable chance retirees using the 4% rule over 30 years will end up with even more money than they started with, and a very low chance they’ll spend their entire nest egg.

Retirees may need to consider more aggressive asset allocation

Other advisors think retirees need to get more comfortable with risk and tilt their portfolios a little more in favor of equities. Adrian Mastracci, fiduciary portfolio manager with Vancouver-based Lycos Asset Management Inc., views 4% as “likely the safe upper limit for many of today’s portfolios.” Like me, he sees 3% as offering more flexibility for an uncertain future. Continue Reading…