All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Most asset classes should have positive returns in 2020 but investors should lower expectations

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‘Tis the season for the annual investment outlook, with a new year and some might argue a new decade ahead of us. While some pundits hold fire on their prognostications until January, a few big-name investment firms have just come out with their 2020 prognostications.

Among the early entrants was Franklin Templeton, which provided its predictions last week in Montreal and again yesterday (Dec. 10th) in Toronto. Also yesterday, Vanguard put out a release headlined Economic and Market Outlook 2020: Lower Growth Expectations in the New Age of Uncertainty.

Franklin Templeton is a well-known manager of actively managed mutual funds, and has now been in Canada for 65 years, going back to Sir John Templeton’s famous Templeton Growth Fund.  Vanguard is best known for its “passive” or indexing approach to investing, both through index mutual funds and ETFs, although it is also an active manager. But their respective outlooks for the next year and decade are not too different, with investment returns projected to stay positive, albeit with cautions to investors not to expect quite as strong returns as they have received in the last decade.

Vanguard said global growth is set to slow in 2020, driven by US and China trade concerns and continued political uncertainty leading to depressed global economic activity.

Vanguard senior investment strategist Todd Schlanger

Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard Canada, said: “Investors should prepare for a lower-return environment over the next decade, with periods of market volatility in the near-term. We expect uncertainty stemming from geopolitics, policymaking, and trade tensions to undermine global growth over the coming year … For Canada, the picture is slightly rosier, with a resilient labour market and robust wage growth leading to growth levels stronger than most developed economies in 2020, with a slight improvement over 2019.”

Vanguard’s main bullet points were these:

  • It forecasts continued slowdown in global growth but Canada will be a bright spot among developed economies: Canadian growth is forecast at 1.6%, U.S. growth forecast at 1.0%, Eurozone, 1.0%, China at 5.8%
  • Canadian equity market returns are forecast to be  3.5%-5.5%, annualized over the next ten years
  • Canadian fixed income returns are likely to be 1.5%-2.5%, annualized over the next ten years.

Vanguard says global central banks have moved from expected policy tightening heading into 2019 to additional policy stimulus amid weakening growth outlooks and inflation shortfalls this year. It expects the US federal reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 to 20 basis points before the end of 2020. However, it expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at current levels throughout 2020. While Canadian growth is stable, rising household debt levels and high exposure to global economic uncertainty “skew the balance of risks to the downside.” Schlanger advises Canadian investors to prepare for volatility over lack of trade clarity and slowing economic growth in the U.S. by maintaining diversified portfolios, keeping investment costs low and focusing on the long term while tuning out the daily noise.

Global stocks still have more performance potential than global bonds

Meanwhile, Franklin Templeton believes global stocks have “greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by continued global growth.” Over the next seven years it forecasts strong return potential for both bonds and equities in Emerging Markets. And with short-term interest rates below historical averages, “we see a lower performance potential for government bonds.”

William Yun, Franklin Templeton Multi-asset Solutions

Franklin Templeton recommends a multi-asset approach to deal with an environment of desyncronized global growth and moderate inflation worldwide.

Bill Yun, executive vice president and investment strategist for Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions (pictured left) said the firm’s 7-year outlook for Canadian bonds the next 7 years is about 1.8% a year, versus 4.8% the past 20 years. Equity return expectations are all positive but reduced from the performance of the prior 20 years: 6% going forward for Canadian equities, versus a historical 7.2%; 6.1% for US equities compared to 6.2% the previous two decades; International equities are projected to return 5.9% versus an historic 4.1%; Emerging Markets 7.1 versus 9% historic, and hedge funds 5.75 compared to 6.4% in the past.

Global central banks have little ammo left

One positive for Canada is that the Bank of Canada has more room to cut rates to cope with an economic slowdown than most central banks in the rest of the world. Canada and the US both have room to cut but Europe does not, Yun said. Some rates are negative in parts of Europe. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Can an RRSP or a RRIF ever be “too large?”

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MoneySense.ca

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a problem some think is a nice one for retirees to have: can an RRSP — and ultimately a RRIF — ever become too large? You can find the full column by clicking on the adjacent highlighted headline: How large an RRSP is too large for Retirement?

This is a surprisingly controversial topic. Some financial advisors advocate “melting down” RRSPs in the interim period between full employment and the end of one’s 71st year, when RRIFs are typically slated to begin their annual (and taxable) minimum withdrawals. Usually, RRSP meltdowns occur in your 60s: I began to do so personally a few years ago, albeit within the confines of a very conservative approach to the 4% Rule.

As the piece points out, tax does start to become problematic upon the death of the first member of a senior couple. At that point, a couple no longer has the advantage of having two sets of income streams taxed in two sets of hands: ideally in lower tax brackets.

True, the death of the first spouse may not be a huge tax problem, since the proceeds of RRSPs and RRIFs pass tax-free to the survivor, assuming proper beneficiary designations. But that does result in a far larger RRIF in the hands of the survivor, which means much of the rising annual taxable RRIF withdrawals may start to occur in the higher tax brackets. And of course if both members of a couple die with a huge combined RRIF, their heirs may share half the estate with the Canada Revenue Agency.

For many seniors, the main reason to start drawing down early on an RRSP is to avoid or minimize clawbacks of Old Age Security (OAS) benefits, which begin for most at age 65. One guideline is any RRSP or RRIF that exceeds the $77,580 (in 2019) threshold where OAS benefits begin to get clawed back. Of course you also need to consider your other income sources, including employer pensions, CPP and non-registered income.

Adrian Mastracci

“A nice problem to have.”

But the MoneySense column also introduces the counterargument nicely articulated by Adrian Mastracci, fiduciary portfolio manager with Vancouver-based Lycos Asset Management. Mastracci, who is also a blogger and occasional contributor to the Hub, is fond of saying to clients “A too-large RRSP is a nice problem to have!”

Retirement can last a long time: from 65 to the mid 90s can be three decades: a long time for portfolios to keep delivering. A larger RRIF down the road gives retirees more financial options, given the ravages of inflation, rising life expectancies, possible losses in bear markets, low-return environments and rising healthcare costs in one’s twilight years. These factors are beyond investors’ control, in which case Mastracci quips, “So much for the too-big RRSP.”

 

My Review of “A Warning” by Anonymous

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Based on the arrival of my library copy of “A Warning” this weekend, it’s clear that the controversial book about Donald Trump written by “Anonymous” is now in wide circulation, and hence there will soon be a new wave of reviews.

Recall that what amounted to a sneak preview of the book came late in 2018 after the New York Times departed from normal practice and published an opinion piece credited only to “A Senior Trump administration official” that gave an inside look at what those unfortunate enough to be subordinate to Trump have to endure on an almost daily basis. Talk about the worst job in the world!

At 250 pages it’s a quick read. At one level, and as a friend of mine who also got an early copy remarked, there’s not that much new to anyone who has been following this train wreck of a presidency on CNN or MSNBC.

Indeed, many of the early reviews based on pre-release copies gave us a good flavour of what you can expect in this book. My favourite passage in the book used not the imagery of a train wreck but an even more dramatic one of air traffic control. To wit:

‘The day-to-day management of the executive branch was falling apart before our eyes. Trump was all over the place. He was like a twelve-year old in an air traffic control tower, pushing the buttons of government indiscriminately, indifferent to the planes skidding across the runway and the flights frantically diverting away from the airport.’

The book includes eight chapters, beginning with the collapse of the steady state (you remember the “grownups” who were supposed to act as guard rails, many now since departed), moves on to Trump’s numerous defects in character, his Fake Views, his Assault on Democracy, his weakness for Strongmen, and a chapter on how he has divided America with a “New Mason-Dixon Line.” Then he surveys the apologists and his enablers who put ambition and fear over service to country, and ends with an appeal to the Electorate.

Surprisingly, the author isn’t that keen on the prospect of impeachment: even though the book is current enough to include the early innings of the Ukraine scandal. Instead, and perhaps sensibly, the appeal is to American voters to come to their collective senses and vote him out in the 2020 election.

Three years too late?

A cynic might quip that the very title “A Warning” comes at least three years too late. But for anyone who believes another four years of this madness will all but destroy American democracy, the title is apt if understated. Perhaps a Trumpian superlative would be an improvement: something like “An Urgent Warning.” Continue Reading…

Retirement planning programs revisited

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More than a year ago I wrote a column for the Financial Post about a handful of Canadian retirement income planning software packages that help would-be retirees and semi-retirees plan how to start drawing down from various income sources: Click on the highlighted text to retrieve the full article: How you draw down your retirement savings could save you thousands: this program proves it.

The focus of the FP piece is Cascades but you can also find a MoneySense piece I wrote from late 2018 that looked at Viviplan, and one I wrote for the Globe & Mail last November that described Cascades, Viviplan and Doug Dahmer’s Retirement Navigator and BetterMoneyChoices.com.

Dahmer has been writing guest blogs on decumulation here at the Hub almost since this site’s founding in 2014. See for example his most recent one, or the similar articles flagged at the bottom: Top 10 Rules for Successful Retirement Income Planning. Dahmer says he’s pleased that others are waking up to the need for tax planning in the drawdown years: “Cascades provides a very good, easy-to-use introduction to these concepts.”

There may be as many as 26 distinct sources of income a retired couple may encounter, estimates Ian Moyer, a 40-year veteran of the financial industry and creator of the Cascades program described in the articles.

When he started to plan for his own decumulation adventure, six years ago, he felt there was very little planning software out there that was both comprehensive and easy to use. So, he hired a computer programmer and created his own package, now called Cascades.

Continue Reading…

Retirement not what many were expecting, and not in a good way: Sun Life survey

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My latest Financial Post column, which is on page FP 3 of Tuesday’s paper, looks at a Sun Life retirement survey released this morning. You can find it online by clicking on the highlighted headline: Canadians finding retirement is not all it’s cracked up to be.

So if you think Retirement is about eternal sea cruises and African safaris, you may be abashed by the Sun Life finding that almost one in four (23%) describe their lifestyle as a frugal one that involves “following a strict budget and refraining from spending money on non-essential items.”

Furthermore, many can expect to still be working full-time at age 66, which just happens to be my own age. And as you can see from this blog, I’m still working, if only on a self-employed semi-retirement basis.

In fact, among the 2150 employed Canadians polled by the 2019 Sun Life Barometer poll conducted by Ipsos, almost half (44 per cent) expect they’ll still be employed full-time at age 66. Among the “frugal” retirees still working after the traditional retirement age, 65 per cent say it’s because they need to work for the money rather than because they enjoy it.

In an interview, Sun Life Canada president Jacques Goulet mentioned most of the main reasons, few of which will come as a surprise to this blog’s readers. Mostly there is a failure to plan for Retirement early enough to save the kind of sums involved. Another familiar culprit is the ongoing decline of employer-sponsored Defined Benefit pension plans, which are becoming more and more rare in the private sector. Most of us can only envy the tax-payer backed guaranteed inflation-indexed DB pensions enjoyed by most government workers, politicians and some members of labor unions: a bulletproof source of income that you can’t outlive.

47% at risk of outliving their money

The alternative for many are employer-sponsored Defined Contribution pensions (DC plans), group RRSPs or personal RRSPs and TFSAs, which means taking on market risk and longevity risk. Both are challenges in the current climate of seemingly perpetual low interest rates and ever volatile stock markets, not to mention rising life expectancy. Even then, Goulet told me Canadians with DC pensions are leaving a lot of money on the table: $3 or $4 billion a year in “free money” that is obtainable if you enrol in a DC pension where the employer “matches” the employee contributions: typically 50 cents for every $1 contributed.

Finally, there is a large group that have no employer pension of any kind, or indeed any steady job with benefits, and these people are unlikely to have saved much in RRSPs or even TFSAs, which they should if they can find the means. This group may account for a whopping 47% of working Canadians, Sun Life finds, and about the only thing they’ll be able to count on in Retirement is the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as early as age 60, Old Age Security at 65 and probably the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) to the OAS. These people would be better off continuing to work till 70 in order to get higher government benefits, a time during which they can build up their Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSA)s. TFSA income does not impact CPP/OAS/GIS, which is not the case for RRSPs and RRIFs.

Finally, a word about continuing to work into one’s 60s and even 70s. I know many who do, and not always for the money. I’m in the latter category myself, even though personally my wife and I could be considered the poster children for maximizing retirement savings, living frugally and investing wisely. There are worse things in life than going to a pleasant job that provides mental stimulation, structure and most of all purpose. Many of these ideas are explored in the book I jointly co-authored with Mike Drak: Victory Lap Retirement.