All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Read these 4 books if you fear for U.S. Democracy

Added Note on July 4, 2024, America’s Independence Day

American stock markets are closed today for Independence Day. I wish all Americans a happy holiday. 

This blog originally ran in February but in light of the momentous events of the past week, we’re republishing and updating it. In fact, emotions have been so raw the last week that some corners of the web fret that July 4, 2024 may turn out to be the last Independence Day. 

I doubt that but the events since last Thursday certainly have grabbed the world’s attention, as well as Canada’s: as ever, when the elephant south of the border sneezes, we in the great white north catch a cold. 

Those new developments are of course President Biden’s disastrous debate last Thursday, June 27th, and then this week’s equally dismaying Supreme Court ruling (on July 1) to grant the Former Guy immunity for any official acts while he was president.

If Democracy seemed on shaky footing back in February, it seems doubly so today, roughly four months from the November election. But that’s still enough time to read the four books highlighted in this blog, and perhaps act on them.

Back to the original text in the blog, which has also been revised and updated where appropriate:

While Findependence Hub’s focus is primarily on investing, personal finance and Retirement, Findependence has given me sufficient leisure time to absorb a lot of content on politics and the ongoing battle to preserve democracy and in particular American democracy. What’s the point of achieving Financial Independence for oneself and one’s family, if you find yourself suddenly living in a fascist autocracy?

To that end, I have recently read four excellent books that summarize where we are, where we have come from and where we likely may be going. (Note, this blog is an update of what I wrote in late November, but with two books added.)

In contrast to two of the books mentioned below, Heather Cox Richardson’s Democracy Awakening is disturbingly current and explicitly names names. There is an extensive recap of The Former Guy’s attempt to highjack the 2020 election and the subsequent event of January 6th and everything that has occurred since.

Yes, I’m sick of reading about him too, which is why I don’t even name him here (even on social media accounts I prefer to use 45). But after his deranged Thanksgiving rant and an equally insane Christmas greeting on the soon-to-be defunct Truth Social (aka Pravda Social), his behaviour has become nothing short of alarming.

There is of course no shortage of mainstream analysis of this. I refer Globe & Mail readers to Andrew Coyne’s excellent column in February (link in highlighted headline, possibly curtailed for non-subscribers; also note the hundreds of reader comments:) First, Trump tried to overthrow Democracy. Now he is attempting to overthrow the Rule of Law. After the Supreme Court’s July 1st decision, Coyne also weighed in with his take on July 2nd: The Supreme Court has just removed the last bar to dictatorship.

On other words, what may have seemed alarmist warnings in these books six months ago now seem scarily more relevant and likely to pass. So what do these books actually say about past dictatorships of history and the possibility of another one coming to pass in the not-too-distant future?

Reclaiming America

Richardson is a history professor at Boston College. For Canadians in particular the book is a valuable primer on the founding of America, the Declaration of Independence, the civil war, the Constitution and its many amendments, the creation of the Democratic and Republican parties, and the politics of the last few centuries. I assume most well-read American readers are taught this in grade school (although maybe not, judging by the millions of deluded MAGA zealots.)

The book itself is divided into three main parts: Undermining Democracy, The Authoritarian Experiment, and Reclaiming America.

Richardson make frequent references to Adolf Hitler and the Nazis. As she writes in the foreword:

“Hitler’s rise to absolute power began with his consolidation of political influence to win 36.8 percent of the vote in 1932, which he parlayed into a deal to become German chancellor. The absolute dictatorship came afterward. Democracies die more often through the ballot box than at gunpoint.”

She goes on to write that a small group of people “have made war on American democracy,” leading the country “toward authoritarianism by creating a disaffected population and promising to re-create an imagined past where those people could feel important again.”  In other words, MAGA.

I’ll skip to the ending but again urge readers to get a copy and read everything between these snippets:

“Once again, we are at a time of testing. How it comes out rests, as it always has, in our own hands.”

Amazon.ca

Hitler: Ascent 1889-1939

Even since I wrote the original version of this blog in November, the press has been full of alarming reports of 45’s Hitler-like rhetoric early in 2024: famously his references to vermin and to immigrants poisoning the blood of the American people, both from the original Hitler playbook. And who can forget his “dictator only on the first day,” an alarming recent example of many a truth said in jest?

A two-book series by Volker Ullrich looks first at Hitler’s political rise and then to his decline and defeat in the second World War that he created.The second book is titled Hitler: Downfall: 1939-1945.

While most of us may think we know this history going back to high-school history classes, not to mention numerous histories, novels and films about World War II, Hitler: Ascent is nevertheless a bracing refresher course.

Ullrich charts Hitler’s improbable rise from failed artist to political rabble rouser, to his failed beerhall putsch in the 1920s, his writing of Mein Kampf after a too-short prison sentence and ultimately his stunning January 1933 manoeuvre to become the Chancellor of Germany, which he soon consolidated as combined chancellor/president and ultimately the dictator he is now known to be.

The book also makes clear his goals for creating a Greater Germany at the expense of most of his European neighbours (famously Poland and France), and his plans for impossibly grandiose architectural structures to be implemented by Albert Speer, with Berlin (to be renamed Germania) the centre of what he hoped would be a global dictatorship.

The second Ullrich book — Hitler: Downfall, 1939-1945 —  is also well worth reading. The final sentences are particularly relevant to today’s environment:

If Hitler’s “life and career teaches us anything, it is how quickly democracy can be prised from its hinges when political institutions fail and civilizing forces in society are too weak to combat the lure of authoritarianism; how thin the mantle separating civilization and barbarism actually is; and what human beings are capable of when the rule of law and ethical norms are suspended and some people are granted unlimited power over the lives of others.”

Of course, for most of us, reading yet another book (or two) about Adolf Hitler doesn’t usually create undue anxiety, since it all seems to be comfortably in the faraway past. Ancient history, as they say. Continue Reading…

Vanguard finds Canadians’ 50% allocation to home market higher than the recommended 30%

A just-released study from Vanguard Canada on Home Country Bias shows that Canadians have about 50% of their portfolios allocated to Canadian equities: well beyond what is recommended for a country that makes up less than 3% of the global stock market.

As the chart below shows, Vanguard recommends just 30% in Canadian stocks but notes that the domestic overweight is slowly decreasing as investors move to global and U.S. equities.

Vanguard says home country bias is not unique to Canada: Americans behave similarly with respect to the U.S. stock market. But as you can see from the chart below, because the U.S. makes up more than half of the global stock market by market capitalization, the gap between its relative overweighting is far less dramatic than in Canada. Canada’s home country bias is almost as pronounced as in Australia (a similar market to Canada in terms of resources and financial stocks), and Japan is not far behind.

However,Vanguard adds, “overall, Canadians and investors in other developed countries are trending towards a greater appetite for diversification through global equities.”

 

Too much Canada can be volatile

So what’s wrong with having too much Canadian content (both stocks and bonds)? Vanguard says portfolios overweight Canadian equity can be volatile because the domestic market is too concentrated in just a few economic sectors. “Relative to the global market, Canada’s market is concentrated within a few large names. It is also significantly overweight in the energy, financials and materials sectors, and significantly underweight in others.” Continue Reading…

Franklin Templeton mid-year outlook: Caution lights on Recession

Jeffrey Schulze

The 12 variables used to forecast Recessions are currently “signalling caution,” says Jeffrey Schulze, CFA.

Speaking Wednesday in Toronto at Franklin Templeton’s mid-year outlook, Schulze — Managing Director, Head of Economic and Market Strategy for Clearbridge Investments — told financial advisors and media that as of May 2024,  the 12 variables he tracks have “historically foreshadowed a looming recession … the overall dashboard [shown below] is currently signalling caution.”

 

Three indicators — Job Sentiment, Money Supply and Yield Curve — have been flashing red since the end of 2023 and continue to be, as you can see in the above chart taken from a presentation made available to attendees. The only green light is Credit Spreads, while the other eight — which include Housing Permits, Jobless Claims and Profit Margins — are all a cautionary yellow.

However, stock valuations do not appear to be too stretched at present. The composition of major stock indexes, such as the S&P500, support higher P/E ratios, Schulze said. “Less-volatile defensive and growthier sectors are typically rewarded with higher multiples. These groups make up a near-record share of the S&P 500 today.” As you can see in the chart below and in the higher purple line of the graph, these Defensive stocks include Tech, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care.

However, Schulze did note a “troubling” record-high concentration of the largest S&P500 names by market weight. As you can see in the chart below, the five largest-cap components now account for more than a quarter (25.3%) of the index, which is “the highest levels in recent history … While this dynamic can persist, history suggests that a reversion to the mean will eventually occur with the average stock outperforming in the coming years.”

 

In fact, the combined weight of the so-called Magnificent 7 tech stocks now exceeds the combined market weight of the stock markets of Japan, the U.K., Canada, France, and China!

 

However, “after behaving fairly monolithically in 2023, the performance of the Mag 7 members have diverged substantially so far in 2024,” Schulze said. A slide of the “Divergent 7”  showed Tesla down 28.3% and Apple flat, while the others were higher, led by the 121.4% surge in the price of Nvidia this year.

A key driver of the Mag 7 outperformance has been superior earnings growth, Schulze said, but “this advantage is expected to dissipate in the coming year,  which could be the catalyst for a sustained leadership rotation.”

Companies that grow their dividends are overdue to start outperforming. “Over the past year, dividend growers have trailed the broader market to a degree rarely seen over the past three decades … Past instances of similar underperformance have been followed with a strong bounce-back for dividend growers.”

A positive for markets is the “copious” amount of cash sitting on the sidelines and being readied to deploy on buying stocks. After the October 2022 lows, investors flocked into money market funds with a net increase of US$1.5 trillion, or 32%, Schulze said:  “Should the Fed embark upon its widely anticipated cutting cycle later this year, investors may reallocate. This represents a potential source of upside for equities.” Continue Reading…

MoneySense Feature on Rising Fraud: How Seniors and everyone else can minimize odds of being scammed

Deposit Photos

MoneySense.ca has just published a feature article by me that looks at the rising tide of frauds directed at Canada’s seniors, and everyone else.

You can find the full piece by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Canadian Seniors, watch out for these scams.

This Saturday (June 15th) is World Elder Abuse Awareness Day.

Note that while the full 2500-word article at MoneySense is aimed at Seniors, it is not technically my  monthly Retired Money column, which is typically shorter.  And this short summary here at Findependence Hub is only a third as long: hopefully enough to entice readers to hop over to MoneySense for the full article.

So below, I offer only a small fraction of the full column and some of the major links. This is an important topic both for seniors and those who hope to be financially independent seniors one day, so do take the time to click on and read the full article at MoneySense.ca, linked above.

It was a bit of an eye opener researching and writing  this piece but it appears to be the unfortunate reality of the technological world we all now inhabit.  It’s overwhelming and the situation is unlikely to improve any time soon.

In the past MoneySense has covered such topics as getting scammed through e-transfersphishingcrypto schemes, identity theft and more. There’s financial fraud in general that targets bank accounts, credit cards and potentially every other aspect of your financial life. My feature attempts an overview of most of them from a Canadian perspective, with a few new scams I hadn’t known about before researching this article. (Example: “smishing,” which is sort of phishing in the form of text messages on smartphones.)

A.I. is exacerbating the spread of Frauds on all platforms

As I note at the top of the full column, it’s a sad fact that the rise of Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) has exacerbated this problem. While anyone can be prey for technology-linked schemes to separate you from your money, seniors need to pay particular attention, seeing as they tend to have more money to lose and less time to recoup it.

According to Equifax, Fraud is the top crime perpetrated against older Canadians. Sadly, many seniors fail to report these crimes to the police because they feel shame or embarrassment about being duped by scamsters.

Identity Theft

 Identity theft is particularly worrisome for seniors, if not the rest of us. As Equifax puts it, “a scammer may try to get information such as a bank card or personal identity number, credit card number, health card number, or a driver’s license or Social Insurance number. They can then apply for credit cards, take out loans or withdraw funds in the person’s name.”

5 cyber scams targeting seniors

Elder Abuse Prevention Ontario (EAPO) lists 5 cyber scams that target seniors. These include Romance scams targeting the recently bereaved. Here are 5 red flags to watch for if you’re looking for love online. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: The LIRA-to-LIF deadline and more on the RRSP-to-RRIF deadline

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column is the second part of an in-depth-look at the deadline those with RRSPs don’t want to miss once they turn 71. Part 1 appeared in March and can be found here.

The full new column can be found by clicking on the highlighted headline here: RRSP to RRIF, and LIRA to LIF: How it all gets done.

For convenience, here are some highlights:

The first column looked at the necessity of winding up RRSPs by the end of the year you  turn 71: a topic that becomes increasingly compelling as the deadline approaches. This followup column looks at two related topics: the similar deadline of LIRA-to-LIF conversions and the alternative of full or partial annuitization.

LIRAs are Locked-in Retirement Accounts and analogous to RRSPs, albeit with different rules. They usually originate from some employer pension to which you once contributed in a former job. To protect you from yourself you can’t extract funds in your younger years unless you qualify for a few needs-based exceptions. LIFs are Life Income Funds, in effect the annuities LIRAs are obliged to become, also at the end of your 71st year.

The full MoneySense column looks at our personal experience in converting my wife’s LIRA to a LIF, aided by Rona Birenbaum, founder of Caring for Clients. Note that the timing of the conversion is NOT affected by having a younger spouse: that only affects the annual minimum withdrawal calculus.

In my case, having turned 71 early this April, I have until the end of this year (2024) to convert my RRSP to a RRIF. The first required minimum withdrawal must occur in 2025: by the end of 2025 I must have withdrawn the annual minimum.

You can choose RRIF payment frequencies: usually monthly, quarterly, semi annually or once a year: you just have to specify which date. I imagine we’ll go monthly.

Currently, our retirement accounts are held at the discount brokerage unit of a Canadian bank, although we use a second discount broker for some non-registered holdings. While the LIRA will be the basis of an annuity provided by an insurer selected by Caring for Clients, most of our RRSPs will likely become RRIFs, probably by November of this year.  Our hope is that we will keep largely the same investments as are being held now and administer them ourselves, with an eye to maintaining enough cash to meet our monthly withdrawal targets.

Self-directed RRIFs

The new vehicle will bear a familiar name for those with self-directed RRSPs: it’s a Self-directed RRIF. At our bank, it was a simple matter of entering the RRSP and finding the link to convert it to a self-directed RRIF. Once there, you tick boxes on when you want the money, withdrawal frequency and (optionally) choose a tax withholding rate. You can also specify that your withdrawals will be based on your spouse’s age, assuming they are younger.

You can of course also go through a similar process with any financial institution’s full-service brokerage or investment advisor, ideally with at least one face-to-face meeting.  One thing Birenbaum says retirees often miss is specifying tax withholding, since there is no minimum withholding tax period required on the minimum withdrawal. I imagine we will ask to have 30% tax taken out at the time of each withdrawal: which is what we do with existing pension income. It’s on the high side to make up for the fact we also have taxable investment income (mostly dividends) that is NOT taxed at source.

             “I find the majority of retirees like having that withholding tax held at source so they don’t have to deal with installments and owing the CRA.” You can of course have more than 30% withheld.

            With a LIRA, you need to get the account liquid before the money is sent to the insurance company to annuitize. This means keeping tabs on the maturity dates of GICs or other fixed income.

            The paperwork is minimal: we provided a recent LIRA statement, then had an online meeting with one of Birenbaum’s insurance-licensed advisors to go through the application, then sign a transfer form to move the cash to the insurance company for a deferred annuity. The transfer takes a few weeks, with the actual annuity rate determined when the insurance company actually receives the money: registered transfers are recalculated at the point of purchase. There is a form T2033, which is an RRSP-to-RRIF transfer form that moves the money from the bank to the insurance company.

Having a mix of RRIF and annuities

Semi-retired actuary and author Fred Vettese says he has endorsed retirees buying a life annuity ever since the first edition of his book “Retirement Income for Life” back in 2018. “If you buy one, it should be a joint-and-survivor type, meaning it pays out a benefit to the survivor for life.” Continue Reading…