All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Franklin Templeton likes prospects for US and global stocks in 2026

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Franklin Templeton’s Investment Outlook for 2026 and beyond was largely positive, judging by the three speakers who presented to advisors and the media at Toronto’s Ritz Carleton Hotel on Tuesday (Nov. 25). In fact, UK-based Global Investment Strategist Michael Browne declared the year now closing, 2025, to be “the Year that the Bear cried Wolf.”

Browne, who is with the Franklin Templeton Institute, released the following preliminary results of Franklin Templeton’s Global Investment Management Survey 2026, shown below:

Browne expects three Fed rate cuts next year and foresees U.S. equities as measured by the S&P500 to end as high as 7400 by the end of 2026.

Like other Templeton executives, Browne expects to see rises in stocks outside the United States. This year, the story has been about growth in the U.S. market and Value in the rest of the world, he said. But even though there are no “Magnificent 7” stocks in Europe or the Emerging Markets — the Mag 7 and their innovation mindset seem unique to the U.S. — he expects a widening and broadening of global markets, with “opportunities in all asset classes.” He expects earnings growth of 5 to 10%, somewhat below the 13.5% Factset consensus.

Corporate margins keep rising, housing markets are weak, and the High-Yield Default Rate is near historically low levels, Browne said, with slides illustrating each point: “Stress indicators do not
point to a severe default cycle in the near term.”

However, Tariff revenue for the U.S. is “unfortunately” high, he said.

Even so, as the chart below demonstrates, real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is forecast to rise over 2026 and inflation is expected to be flat to down next year.


Meanwhile, there is more than US$7 trillion in cash still sitting on the sidelines and capex growth for the big hyperscalers is expected to remain strong, Browne said. They will spend US$3 trillion by the end of the decade and may generate significant returns for the four hyperscalers investing from Cash: Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Google.

How to spot a Bubble … and a Crash

Browne provided past examples of historic bubbles, ranging from Dutch Tulipmania of 1637 to the American railway mania of the early 1850s, which crashed in 1873, and severe stock market declines in 1907, 1929, 1987, 2001 and 2008.

Bubbles usually end after 7 developments: Debt, Rate rises, a “First Failure,” Confidence fails Reverse Velocity, Margin Calls, Forced or Panic Selling and finally Fraud.

Comparing the 2020s to the 1990s, one of Browne’s slides said “The dot-com bubble burst in 2000: more than five years after the release of Netscape.”

Historically, Global Equities have delivered double-digit gains following Rate cuts and have supported P/E expansions, Browne said. All markets except China are more correlated to the U.S. than in the past. In Emerging Markets, Browne likes India and China: “When the Fed cuts, Emerging Markets fly.”

The last scheduled speaker was Jeff Schulze, CFA, Managing Director and Head of Economic and Market Strategy for ClearBridge Investments, who reassured attendees they don’t need to fear the All-Time Highs the U.S. has been experiencing throughout much of 2025:

Schulze says that with possible Tariff Refunds, “we think the economy next year will outperform consensus expectations … We’re buyers of Dips.” While valuations are “full” right now, with the Fed cutting we don’t see multiples going down  … for the first time in a long time, diversification will be more additive as we see a broadening out.” The previous laggards will become leaders, including small- and mid- caps and the S&P493 (all but the Mag 7).

One slide on the Tariffs said this: “The Supreme Court may decide that the administration’s IEEPA tariffs need to be refunded, which would be a windfall to corporate America next year. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has noted that approximately half of the incremental tariff revenue, which is on pace to near $200 billion by year-end, has come from IEEPA tariffs.”

Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Experts opine on various tweaks to Bengen’s famous 4% Rule

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William Bengen, creator of the famed “4% Rule.”

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column is titled The 4% rule, revisited: A more flexible approach to retirement income. Click on the hyperlink for full column.

It goes into more detail on William Bengen’s updated book about the 4% Rule, which was one of three recently published financial books we reviewed in the last Retired Money column.

For that column I had originally planned to focus exclusively on that book, A Richer Retirement, Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More. However, I decided to review two other books at the same time; meanwhile I ended up on a related project on my own site, which involved asking more than a dozen financial advisors on both sides of the border what they think of the 4% Rule and the tweaks Bengen covers in his follow-up book. You can see all responses in this blog that appeared earlier this month on Findependence Hub, but at over 5,000 words  it was a tad long for the space normally assigned to the Retired Money column.

 For the MoneySense version, I focused on the most insightful comments and added a few thoughts of my own. The survey was conducted via Linked In and Featured.com, which has long supplied good content for my site.

Broader diversification spawns a 4.7% Rule

Trusts and estates expert Andrew Izrailo, Senior Corporate and Fiduciary Manager for Astra Trust, says Bengen’s original idea was to provide a sustainable income stream for at least 30 years without depleting your savings. In his new book, Bengen “revisits this concept using updated data and broader asset allocations,” summarizes Izrailo, “He now argues the safe withdrawal rate could rise to around 4.7%, supported by stronger market performance and portfolio diversification beyond the original stock-bond mix.”

For American investors, Izrailo still begins with 4% as a baseline because “it remains simple and conservative. Then I evaluate three major factors before adjusting: market volatility, portfolio performance, and expected longevity.” For Canadian retirees, “I tend to start lower, around 3.5%, due to differences in taxation, mandatory RRIF withdrawal rules, and the impact of currency and inflation differences compared to U.S. portfolios.”

Toronto-based wealth advisor Matthew Ardrey, of TriDelta Financial was not part of the original Featured roundup but agreed with the general view that while a helpful starting point, the 4 Rule is only a guideline. “When I meet with a client, I don’t rely on the 4% rule at all,” said Ardrey, who has worked with clients for more than 25 years “I’ve learned that rules of thumb — like the 4% rule — pale in comparison to the clarity and confidence that come from a well-crafted” and personalized financial plan.  Such a plan should reflect each person’s unique circumstances, priorities, and goals, allowing them to build the right decumulation strategy for their situation.

No one size fits all

Almost all the experts caution against taking a one-size-fits-all approach to the 4% Rule or its variants. Over 20 years with her own clients financial advisor and educator Winnie Sun, Executive Producer of ModernMom, starts with 4% as the baseline, then adjusts it based on actual client spending patterns and market conditions … The biggest mistake I see isn’t about the percentage itself: it’s that people forget about tax efficiency in withdrawal sequencing.”

Oakville, Ont.-based insurance broker James Inwood says the 4% rule is “a decent guideline, but it’s not some magic number you can set and forget. I’ve watched people get into trouble because they didn’t account for medical bills, which are a real wild card here in Canada. I always tell people to build in a cash buffer and check in on that withdrawal rate every couple of years instead of just locking it in permanently.” Continue Reading…

Is the “4%” Rule still relevant for Retirement Planning? What the experts say

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Late in October, my monthly MoneySense Retired Money column reviewed three recently published financial books, starting with financial planner William Bengen’s new A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More.

Below we canvassed more than a dozen retirement experts and financial planners in both Canada and the United States about their experiences with the Rule, both the original book as well as the new one.

These experts were gathered by Featured.com, which has been supplying Findependence Hub with quality content for several years now. It has changed its procedure so that editors like myself can request input on particular topics we think will interest our readership. The sources are all on LinkedIn, as you can see by clicking on their profiles below.

Here’s what we asked, followed by their answers, which have been re-ordered by me.

“What do you think of the 4% Rule: CFP Bill Bengen’s guideline about a safe annual Retirement withdrawal amount that factors in inflation? Have you read or do you plan to read Bengen’s just-published followup book: A Richer Retirement : Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More? Do you agree or do you have your own tweaks to the 4% Rule? Looking for both Canadian and American input.”

Here is what these thought leaders had to say.

Adaptive Withdrawals protect Retirement through Market Cycles

The 4% Rule, created by CFP Bill Bengen in the 1990s, remains one of the most referenced retirement withdrawal guidelines. It suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement and adjusting that amount for inflation each year. The idea was to provide a sustainable income stream for at least 30 years without depleting your savings. Bengen’s newly published book, A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More, revisits this concept using updated data and broader asset allocations. He now argues the safe withdrawal rate could rise to around 4.7%, supported by stronger market performance and portfolio diversification beyond the original stock-bond mix. 

I see the 4% Rule as a reliable starting point, but not a fixed rule. It offers structure for retirees who need clarity on how much to withdraw each year, but real-world conditions require flexibility. For U.S. investors, I still begin with 4% as a baseline because it remains simple and conservative. Then I evaluate three major factors before adjusting: market volatility, portfolio performance, and expected longevity. For Canadian retirees, I tend to start lower, around 3.5%, due to differences in taxation, mandatory RRIF withdrawal rules, and the impact of currency and inflation differences compared to U.S. portfolios. 

My main adjustment to the rule is to make withdrawals adaptive rather than static. If the portfolio declines by more than 20% early in retirement, I recommend reducing withdrawals by 5% to protect capital. If inflation stays above 4% for more than two years while fixed income returns remain weak, I hold withdrawals steady instead of increasing them. Conversely, if long-term returns outperform expectations, withdrawals can rise modestly. These adjustments keep the retirement plan sustainable through changing market cycles. 

The lesson is to view the 4% Rule as a guideline, not a guarantee. Its true value lies in the discipline it introduces. A flexible version of the rule — tailored to taxes, inflation, and market behaviour — helps retirees spend with confidence while protecting their financial future. — Andrew Izrailo, Senior Corporate and Fiduciary Manager,  Astra Trust

Real Estate Investors Outperform Traditional 4% Rule

I’ve always thought the 4% rule is a decent starting point, but it’s really built around stocks and bonds. In my world of real estate, combining rental income with property value growth usually blows past that number. Instead of a fixed withdrawal, you can sell a property or pull out equity when the market’s high. That flexibility often makes your money last a lot longer in retirement. — Carl Fanaro, President,  NOLA Buys Houses 

Balance Freedom and Security in Retirement Journey

Retirement, much like embarking on a long and meaningful journey, is not just about reaching a destination but about learning how to move through each stage of life with purpose and enjoyment.

After reading Bill Bengen’s A Richer Retirement, I found his updated perspective on the 4% Rule both inspiring and practical. He transforms what was once seen as a strict withdrawal formula into a flexible approach that prioritizes experience, adaptability, and peace of mind.

Bengen’s message is that retirement should not revolve around fear or limitation. Instead, it should be about living fully within realistic financial boundaries. By adjusting withdrawals according to personal goals, market performance, and the natural flow of retirement years, retirees can enjoy their savings as a source of freedom rather than anxiety.

The concept feels much like travel: in some seasons, you venture farther, explore more, and spend a bit extra; in others, you slow down, rest, and savor simplicity. This approach is particularly meaningful for those who dream of traveling during retirement. The early, active years can be dedicated to exploring places like Morocco, when energy and curiosity are at their peak. Later on, spending can naturally shift toward quieter experiences closer to home.

Both Canadians and Americans can apply this mindset using tools such as TFSAs, RRSPs, Roth IRAs, or Social Security planning to balance flexibility and security.

In the end, Bengen’s vision reframes retirement as a phase of freedom, not restriction. It invites people to plan wisely but live fully, creating space for exploration, connection, and purpose much like a well-planned journey that leaves room for discovery along the way. — Nassira Sennoune, Marketing Coordinator, Sun trails

Tax-Efficient Withdrawals add 1-2% to Retirement

The 4% rule is a solid starting point, but after 20+ years advising clients, I can tell you it’s not one-size-fits-all. I’ve seen too many retirees lock themselves into unnecessary restrictions because they treat it like gospel rather than a guideline. 

Here’s what I actually do with clients: we start with 4% as the baseline, then adjust based on their actual spending patterns and market conditions. I had a couple last year who were terrified to spend more than their calculated 4%, even though their portfolio had grown 30% and they were skipping vacations they’d dreamed about for decades. We bumped them to 5.5% for two years because the math worked and life is short: they finally took that trip to Italy. 

The biggest mistake I see isn’t about the percentage itself: it’s that people forget about tax efficiency in withdrawal sequencing. I always look at which accounts to pull from first (taxable vs. tax-deferred vs. Roth) because that can add 1-2% to your effective withdrawal rate without touching principal. One client saved $47,000 over five years just by restructuring their withdrawal order. 

I haven’t read Bengen’s new book yet, but it’s on my list. My practical tweak: build a 2-3 year cash cushion in your portfolio so you’re never forced to sell stocks in a down market. That flexibility alone has kept my clients sleeping well through every correction since 2008. — Winnie Sun, Executive Producer,, ModernMom

Canadian Medical Costs require Flexible Withdrawal Rates

Look, the 4% rule is a decent guideline, but it’s not some magic number you can set and forget. I’ve watched people get into trouble because they didn’t account for medical bills, which are a real wild card here in Canada. I always tell people to build in a cash buffer and check in on that withdrawal rate every couple of years instead of just locking it in permanently. — James Inwood, Insurance Broker, James Inwood

Cash Reserves shield Retirees from Market Volatility

I assist clients with retirement and estate planning.  Bill Bengen’s original 4% rule was first published in 1994 and took into account a balanced investment portfolio modeled back to 1926.  At that time, he projected a 4% withdrawal rate, adjusted annually for inflation, would ensure the portfolio was sustainable for a 30-year retirement.  I recommend my retired clients review their portfolio allocation, investment returns, monitor for annual inflation and expenditures and then make adjustments for the next year’s withdrawals.  

 I plan to read Mr. Bengen’s new book published in August.  Mr. Bengen  is now recommending a broader asset diversification to add in small percentages of international equities and small-cap stocks in addition to his historic investment portfolio of 50% U.S. large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate bonds.  He claims with this broader diversification the safe withdrawal rate could now be up to 4.7% under best case scenario, 4.15% worst case.  I agree with Bengen that broader asset diversification can make sense for retirees who are investment knowledgeable and are monitoring annually the data I’ve noted above.

I recommend to my clients that any rule of thumb such as Bengen is simply a data point.  Retirees need to take into account their own risk profile as well as their investment understanding before making any significant adjustments to their rate of asset withdrawal.   Retirees now have longer life spans and are battling a heightened inflation rate.  I recommend my clients have a flexible withdrawal range of 3.5% to 4.5%, monitor assets annually, and continually adjust their annual withdrawal rate as necessary for volatile markets.   

I also recommend that my clients have a cash account established of at least two years’ withdrawals to avoid having to sell assets in a prolonged negative market environment. — Lisa Cummings, Attorney and Executive Vice President at Cummings & Cummings Law,  Cummings & Cummings

Tax Planning Matters more than Withdrawal Percentages

I’ve spent 40 years managing my own law firm and CPA practice, plus 20 years as a registered investment advisor, so I’ve seen hundreds of retirement plans play out in real life. The 4% rule is a decent starting point, but I stopped treating it as gospel about 15 years into my advisory career.

Here’s what I actually saw with my small business owner clients: their retirement income rarely came from just traditional portfolios. Most had business sale proceeds, real estate holdings, and irregular cash flows that made the 4% rule almost irrelevant. One client sold his manufacturing business at 62 for $2.3 million (US) but kept the building and leased it back: his retirement “withdrawal rate” was completely different because he had guaranteed rental income covering 60% of his expenses. 

The bigger issue I noticed was tax planning around withdrawals. I’d have clients rigidly following 4% from their IRAs while sitting on Roth conversions they should’ve done years earlier, or taking Social Security at the wrong time. The sequence of what you withdraw from matters more than the percentage: I’ve seen people save $50K+ in taxes over retirement just by pulling from taxable accounts first while doing strategic Roth conversions. 

My tweak: forget the percentage and work backward from your actual monthly expenses, then layer in guaranteed income sources (Social Security, pensions, annuities) before touching portfolio money. Most of my retired clients ended up withdrawing 2-3% because they structured things right on the front end. — David Fritch, Attorney,  Fritch Law Office Continue Reading…

Federal Budget 2025: Canada Strong

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Department of Finance

Department of Finance: Francois-Philippe Champagne

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget was delivered Tuesday afternoon shortly after 4 pm by Minister of Finance and National Revenue Francois-Philippe Champagne.

Go here for full documents and to find downloadable documents for the 405-page Budget. (The above screenshot is not enabled for downloading.)

Below is one of the first releases released by the Department of Finance website.  It’s followed with headlines and hyperlinks to the most recent Budget coverage in the Globe & Mail and National Post.

This blog may be revised as new updates arrive from various media sources.

 Government of Canada releases Budget 2025: Canada Strong

From: Department of Finance Canada

Canada’s new government puts forward a plan to build, protect, and empower Canada

November 4, 2025 – Ottawa, Ontario – Department of Finance Canada 

Canada faces a rapidly changing and increasingly uncertain world. The rules-based international order and the trading system that powered Canada’s prosperity for decades are being reshaped – hurting companies, displacing workers, causing major disruption and upheaval for Canadians.

In the face of global uncertainty, Canada’s new government is focused on what we can control. Budget 2025: Canada Strong is our plan to transform our economy from one that is reliant on a single trade partner, to one that is stronger, more self-sufficient, and more resilient to global shocks. Our plan builds on Canada’s strengths – world-class industries, skilled and talented workers, diverse trade partnerships, and a strong domestic market where Canadians can be our own best customers. We are creating an economy by Canadians, for Canadians.   

We are building Canada Strong. This is a plan to build the major infrastructure, homes, and industries that grow our economy and create lasting prosperity. This is a plan that will protect our communities, our borders, and our way of life. This is a plan to empower Canadians with better careers, strong public services, and a more affordable life. We are building a stronger economy, so that Canadians can build their own future.

To do that, Canada’s new government is delivering an investment budget. We are spending less on government operations – and investing more in the workers, businesses, and nation-building infrastructure that will grow our economy. Budget 2025 delivers on the government’s Comprehensive Expenditure Review to modernise government, improve efficiencies, and deliver better results and services for Canadians. It includes a total of $60 billion in savings and revenues over five years, and makes generational investments in housing, infrastructure, defence, productivity and competitiveness. These are the smart, strategic investments that will enable $1 trillion in total investments over the next five years through smarter public spending and stronger capital investment.

Countries across the world are facing global economic challenges – and Canada is no different. Budget 2025 is Canada’s new government’s plan to address these challenges from a position of strength, determination, and action. It is our plan to take control and build the future we want for ourselves, as a people and a country. It is our plan to build Canada Strong.

Quotes

“The global uncertainty we are facing demands bold action to secure Canada’s future. Budget 2025 is an investment budget. We are making generational investments to meet the moment and ensure our country doesn’t just weather this moment but thrives in it. This is our moment to build Canada Strong and our plan is clear – we will build our economy, protect our country, and empower you to get ahead. When we play to our strengths, we can create more for ourselves than can ever be taken away.”

The Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Finance and National Revenue

Quick facts

  • Canada has the fiscal capacity to meet its ambition:
    • Canada has the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7 at 13.3 per cent according to the IMF October 2025 Fiscal Monitor. Canada also has one of the lowest deficit-to-GDP ratios in the G7, second only to Japan. This strong fiscal position enables us to respond to global challenges.
    • Canada is one of only two G7 economies with a AAA credit rating, making Canada one of the best places to invest in the world.
    • Canada has the best deal of any U.S. trading partner, with 85 per cent of our trade tariff-free. While some sectors remain deeply impacted, overall, Canadian exporters benefit from the lowest average U.S. tariff of any country at 5.4 per cent.
  • Budget 2025 rests on two fiscal anchors:
    • Balancing day-to-day operating spending with revenues by 2028–29, shifting spending toward investments that grow the economy; and
    • Maintaining a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio to ensure disciplined fiscal management for future generations.
  • In addition to the two fiscal anchors, Budget 2025 enables $1 trillion in total investments over the next five years through smarter public spending and stronger capital investment.

 

Here are some headlines with hyperlinks in red to the latest Globe & Mail stories on the budget, for those with subscriptions to the paper.

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Almost six in ten Canadians worry they’ll run out of money in Retirement: especially women and young people

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The majority of Canadians are afraid they’ll run out of money in Retirement, especially women and young people, according to a survey released Wednesday morning by the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB).

The 2025 CPPIB Retirement Survey  (for Financial Literacy Month) says 59% of all Canadians are afraid of running out of money during Retirement, with the percentage jumping to 63% for women, compared to just 55% of men. It also found a whopping two thirds (66%) of Canadians aged 28 to 44 share the same fear. As the CPPIB graphic  below illustrates, those who have a financial plan are slightly less worried.

 

As you’d expect the CPPIB to point out, the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) helps protect retired Canadians from this risk: as it says above, CPP “benefits are payable as long as you live and [are] indexed to inflation.”

Indeed, CPP and the other main government retirement income program, Old Age Security, are both valuable sources of inflation-indexed retirement income. CPP is available as early as age 60 and OAS at 65 but a staple of Canadian personal finance commentary is that the longer you wait to receive benefits, the higher the benefits will be. In the best of all worlds, you’d wait until 70 for both programs to start paying out, even if you have to keep working longer and/or start withdrawing money from your RRSP before it’s mandated at age 71/72. (While the CPPIB doesn’t mention it, retirees with no other savings may also benefit from the Guaranteed Income Supplement to the OAS: and the GIS  is tax-free.)

The second graphic reproduced below is less straight-forward: it appears to present various excuses for delaying the creation of a proper financial plan to help get to Retirement. Roughly half of younger Canadians cite their need to advance their careers and make more money, and to buy their first home as priorities.


While it’s true that if nothing else, the future arrival of CPP and OAS benefits should put minds partially at ease about covering off basic Retirement expenses, it seems to me pretty obvious that at least for those who lack a generous employer-sponsored pension plan (ideally an inflation-indexed Defined Benefit pension), that it will be necessary to maximize savings in RRSPs and TFSAs as soon as possible.

Because of the Time Value of Money and the magic of compounding investment returns (especially when tax-deferred in RRSPs and TFSAs), the sooner you start saving in these vehicles the better. There’s no excuse not to make RRSP contributions from the get-go, ideally as soon as you land your first real job, since it reduces your income tax. Yes, decades from now when RRSPs become RRIFs you’ll have to pay some tax on the ultimate withdrawals, but that’s more than made up by the tax-deferred investment growth. Continue Reading…