All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

The Burn Your Mortgage Podcast: Home ownership, the Foundation of Financial Independence with Jonathan Chevreau

 

Below is an edited transcript of a podcast interview conducted late in 2023 between myself and Burn Your Mortgage podcaster and author Sean Cooper.

The conversation starts with our thoughts on the high price of housing in Canada and how newcomers trying to get on the first rung of the housing ladder can get a start by saving up in Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs) and the new First Home Savings Accounts (FHSAs.)

From there we move on a discussion of saving for Retirement, my concept of Findependence (or Financial Independence) and Semi-Retirement: aka Victory Lap Retirement.

Click any of the links below to hear the full audio podcast on your favorite podcast app. Below that is a shortened edited transcript of the interview.

Partial  Transcript

Sean Cooper  

Let’s get started with our interesting discussion today on findependence as well as your daughter’s journey to homeownership. I remember you being on a segment of CBC on the money back in the day a few years ago, with your daughter. So yes, the first thing I want to ask you about is the challenge of younger folks buying a property around that housing affordability issue, so maybe we can talk a bit about your daughter’s journey to homeownership and also about the new First Home Savings Account (FHSA.)

Jonathan Chevreau  

Sure. first of all, as an only child, we remind her that eventually we’ll be gone and that this current house will be hers in any case. So that removes some pressure. Is it a challenge right now in places like Toronto and Vancouver to buy a first home? Yes, it is. Is it impossible? No, it’s like anything else in personal finance. It’s priorities. I think I’ve educated her to the point that she’s been saving in a TFSA and maximizing it since she was 18 years old.

The point is between the TFSA and now the First Home Savings Account, it’s a lot better to receive interest than to pay it out once you commit to a house, which is a lot more expensive than the baby boomers ever had to pay … We’d rather collect rent, in effect, or interest income than than pay it out.

FHSA versus TFSA and Homebuyers Plan

Sean Cooper  

Could you share your thoughts on how the FHSA compares to the TFSA and the RRSP homebuyer plan?

Jonathan Chevreau  

As you know, the FHSA has only been out for about a year. And it allows you to invest $8,000 a year into basically anything that an RRSP or a TFSA would allow you to invest in. So not just fixed income, but you can invest in stocks, ETFs, asset allocation ETFs, etc. And you get a deduction similar to how an RRSP generates one.

But the beauty of it is it’s very flexible, like a TFSA. You don’t have to buy a first home. But it’s only good for people who have never bought a home yet, so it’s a one-time only deal. I would say it would be a priority. But whether or not you think you’re going to buy a home, you certainly will want to retire at some point. And therefore the FHSA does double duty.

Sean Cooper  

I agree completely. And the FHSA is a lot more flexible than the homebuyer plan, you can actually use both of them together. So if you have a lot of money in your RRSP, then you can use them in combination. But a couple cool things that I learned is that with the RRSP home buyers plan, there’s actually the rule that basically any contributions that you make, it has to sit in the account for 90 days before you can take the money out. But with the FHSA, it doesn’t have that same rule, you can essentially contribute money and then pretty much take it out. And you don’t have to wait 90 days or anything like that.

 Jonathan Chevreau  

The good thing about home equity and a paid for-home because as you know, Sean, I’ve written that the foundation of financial independence is a paid-for home, but once it’s paid for there is home equity, then, if you have to, in the last five years of Old Age would tap it to pay for, I don’t know, $6,000 or $7,000 a month for a nursing home or retirement home. Nice to have in the back of your pocket, the home equity.

My view is, there’s no rush to get out there and buy a first home at these high interest rates and home prices are also almost near record high though they’ve come down a bit.

Retirement savings, pensions, CPP, OAS

Sean Cooper  

Why don’t we switch gears and talk about the second topic that we want to discuss: financial independence.  If all the money is in the house, and you don’t have a gold-plated pension plan, you have a bit of a challenge there. Now, certainly you can downsize but then there is the cost of moving and the land transfer tax, and all that.

Jonathan Chevreau  

Well, I don’t have a gold-plated pension. I would call it more like a bronze-plated one. Mostly from National Post, since I was there for 19 years. My wife has no employer pension, but always maximized her RRSP. And we obviously eat our own cooking, so we have maximized our TFSAs since it began. We delayed CPP as long as we could, but didn’t quite wait until 70 because actuary and author Fred Vettese had an article in The Globe the last couple of weeks arguing that those who are 68 or 69 now are probably better off taking CPP a year or two earlier, so you get the inflation adjustment.

Most financial planners would say you should look at CPP and OAS really nice additions to savings and that can be the foundation or your findependence, especially if you don’t have an employer-provided Defined Benefit pension plan.  Some worry that if the worst happens, like Alberta leaving CPP, what if somehow they renege on the CPP promise? But I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Retiree money fears and Asset Allocation

Still, it doesn’t hurt to have financial assets so in the end, you’re not going to be dependent on the government or any one employer.  One thing you can count on is your personal investments like RRSPs/RRIFs, TFSAs, and non registered savings. Then of course, if you’re managing your own money , you have to worry about the fear of every retiree: running out of money or losing money if the stock market crashes. Asset allocation is the proper protection there: my own financial advisor recommends 60% fixed income to 40% stocks, I guess we’re close to that. Right now GICs — guaranteed investment certificates — are paying roughly 4 or 5%, depending where you go. If you ladder them so they mature one to five years from now, then you don’t have to worry about the reinvestment risk. You just reinvest whenever they come due at current rates. Continue Reading…

Happy New Year … and a few links on inflation indexing

Deposit Photos

Hoping readers have a pleasant and profitable 2024. Retirees should be cheered by the fact CPP and OAS payments rise 4.7% as of today  as explained here.

And of course, as of today, you can add another $7,000 to your Tax-free Savings Accounts or TFSAs.

And there’s other inflation-related good news on tax brackets, the OAS clawback threshold and contribution limits on other tax-sheltered retirement plans, as outlined in my last MoneySense Retired Money column, which you can find here.

The Hub will resume its regular blog scheduling this time tomorrow. In the meantime, time to make that TFSA contribution, even if you can’t actually invest it until markets re-open Tuesday.

Retired Money: Some upsides of inflation for retirees

Image by istock

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at one unexpected upside of inflation; the government’s indexing to inflation of tax brackets, retirement savings limits and OAS thresholds. You can find the full column by clicking on the link here: Inflation a scourge for retirees? Ottawa’s silver lining(s)

TFSA room rises to $7,000

Fans of the popular Tax-free Savings Account (TFSA) will experience this as early as Jan. 1, 2024, when the annual maximum contribution room rises to $7,000, up from $6,500 in 2023. As of January 2024, someone who has never before contributed to a TFSA now has cumulative contribution room of $95,000.

In November Kyle Prevost’s weekly Making Sense of the Markets column included an item titled Make inflation work for you.  “We shouldn’t ignore or discount the more advantageous aspects of inflation, such as increased government benefits and more contribution  room in our RRSPs and TFSAs.”

Prevost linked to a spreadsheet posted on X (formerly Twitter) by financial advisor Aaron Hector, posted late in October, after the CPI announcement that Ottawa’s official inflation indexing rate for 2024 would be a sizeable 4.7%. While below 2023’s 6.3% indexation rate, it’s well above 2022’s 2.4% and 2021’s 1%.

Also quoted in the MoneySense column is Matthew Ardrey, wealth advisor with Toronto-based TriDelta Financial. “One of the main benefits is paying less taxes.” Income tax brackets increase with inflation each year. For example, in 2021 the lowest tax bracket in Ontario ended at $45,142 of income. “Starting in 2024, this lowest tax bracket now ends at $51,446. This is a 14% increase over just a few years.” Continue Reading…

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2024

Higher interest rates are here to stay, according to the Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2024, delivered online on Tuesday, Dec. 12. The following is an advance document viewed under embargo and it has been edited down from a Global Summary prepared by Vanguard Global Chief Economist Joseph Davis and the Vanguard global economics team. Anything below in quotes is directly lifted from that document. Otherwise, I have used ellipses and/or paraphrased to make this fit the Hub’s normal blog format. Subheadings are also by Vanguard. At the end of this blog, we have also added a chart about Canada in particular, and projected investment returns in Canada and the rest of the world, supplied by Vanguard Canada.

The main paper begins:

Joseph Davis, Ph.D., Global Chief Economist for Vanguard Group Inc.

“Higher interest rates are here to stay. Even after policy rates recede from their cyclical peaks, in the decade ahead rates will settle at a higher level than we’ve grown accustomed to since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). This development ushers in a return to sound money, and the implications for the global economy and financial markets will be profound. Borrowing and savings behavior will reset, capital will be allocated more judiciously, and asset class return expectations will be recalibrated. Vanguard believes that a higher interest rate environment will serve investors well in achieving their long-term financial goals, but the transition may be bumpy.”

Monetary policy will bare its teeth in 2024

“The global economy has proven more resilient than we expected in 2023. This is partly because monetary policy has not been as restrictive as initially thought. Fundamental changes to the global economy have pushed up the neutral rate of interest — the rate at which policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Various other factors have blunted the normal channels of monetary policy transmission, including the U.S. fiscal impulse from debt-financed pandemic support and industrial policies, improved household and corporate balance sheets, and tight labor markets that have resulted in real wage growth.

In the U.S., our analysis suggests that these offsets almost entirely counteracted the impact of higher policy interest rates. Outside the U.S., this dynamic is less pronounced. Europe’s predominantly bank-based economy is already flirting with recession, and China’s rebound from the end of COVID-19-related shutdowns has been weaker than expected.

The U.S. exceptionalism is set to fade in 2024. We expect monetary policy to become increasingly restrictive as inflation falls and offsetting forces wane. The economy will experience a mild downturn as a result. This is necessary to finish the job of returning inflation to target. However, there are risks to this view. A “soft landing,” in which inflation returns to target without recession, remains possible, as does a recession that is further delayed.

In Europe, we expect anemic growth as restrictive monetary and fiscal policy lingers, while in China, we expect additional policy stimulus to sustain economic recovery amid increasing external and structural headwinds.”

Zero rates are yesterday’s news

“Barring an immediate 1990s-style productivity boom, a recession is likely a necessary condition to bring down the rate of inflation, through weakening demand for labor and slower wage growth. As central banks feel more confident in inflation’s path toward targets, we expect they will start to cut policy rates in the second half of 2024.

That said, we expect policy rates to settle at a higher level compared with after the GFC and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vanguard research has found that the equilibrium level of the real interest rate, also known as r-star or r*, has increased, driven primarily by demographics, long-term productivity growth, and higher structural fiscal deficits. This higher interest rate environment will last not months, but years. It is a structural shift that will endure beyond the next business cycle and, in our view, is the single most important financial development since the GFC.”

 

A return to sound money

“For households and businesses, higher interest rates will limit borrowing, increase the cost of
capital, and encourage saving. For governments, higher rates will force a reassessment of fiscal
outlooks sooner rather than later. The vicious circle of rising deficits and higher interest rates
will accelerate concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Vanguard’s research suggests the window for governments to act on this is closing fast — it is
an issue that must be tackled by this generation, not the next.

For well-diversified investors, the permanence of higher real interest rates is a welcome
development. It provides a solid foundation for long-term risk-adjusted returns. However, as the
transition to higher rates is not yet complete, near-term financial market volatility is likely to
remain elevated.

Bonds are back!

Global bond markets have repriced significantly over the last two years because of the transition
to the new era of higher rates. In our view, bond valuations are now close to fair, with higher
long-term rates more aligned with secularly higher neutral rates. Meanwhile, term premia
have increased as well, driven by elevated inflation and fiscal and monetary outlook
uncertainty.

Despite the potential for near-term volatility, we believe this rise in interest rates is the single
best economic and financial development in 20 years for long-term investors. Our bond
return expectations have increased substantially. Continue Reading…