By Ambrose O’Callaghan, Harvest ETFs
(Sponsor Blog)
The year 2024 started in a similar fashion as 2023. The mega-cap-concentrated technology sector fuelled positive upward momentum.
Economic data slowed in the first quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, relatively defensive areas benefited through the spring months and again through the end of the summer season as recession concerns resurfaced ahead of the first interest rate cut in August.
How a “soft landing” has impacted the market
Equities and bonds continued to be very sensitive to the day-over-day economic data points. In another period these data points might have less impact on the behaviour of individual stocks and bonds. The chart below illustrates the dramatic shift in earnings growth expectations from 2022 through to the first quarter of 2026. Market and investor sentiment has improved as the US Federal Reserve has seemingly been able to orchestrate a “soft landing.”
Source: Bloomberg, January 10, 2025.
The ability of the Fed to produce a “soft landing” in 2024 was reflected in the meaningful uptick in earnings expectations for the entire market. Previously, the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla) has been the driving force, outshining the broader market.
Through November 2024, the stock market rejoiced the certainty of the coming Republican administration. It continued to rally hard through to the end of November with nearly every sub-sector up over 10%.
Source: Harvest Portfolios Group, Inc. January 2025.
Transitioning from 2024 to 2025
The month of December 2024 closed as only the third negative month of that calendar year. Factors like tax loss selling, volume voids, and policy rhetoric compounded to contribute to the decline in the final month of the previous year. Regardless, the broader markets finished in the black for the second year in a row with a 20% upward movement. That rate of increase is a rarity over the past 40 years. That said, the strong move upward does not mean a correction is more likely to occur in 2025. Continue Reading…