Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

Don’t avoid U.S. stocks: Embrace a global portfolio

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By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

We all know that Canadians are up in arms (well, elbows are up to be more specific) over President Trump’s strategy to destroy Canada, economically. There is a national wave of pride that says ‘Buy Canadian’ and avoid most anything produced in the U.S. More Canadians refuse to cross the border as well, tourism to the U.S. is down significantly. And while U.S. produce rots on the shelves at No Frills, many Canadian investors are also dumping their U.S. stocks in protest. This is the financial equivalent to cutting of your nose to spite your face. Don’t avoid U.S. stocks. Embrace a global portfolio.

Now I certainly understand, here’s the kind of motivation that gets our elbows up …

Of course Canadians will take a pass on that 51st State offer. But we should not take a pass on U.S. stocks. While you may not be a fan of the United States of America, it is still where they keep most of the best companies on earth. It is where they keep the best stock market on the planet. It’s where the entrepreneurial spirit and innovation rages like no place on earth.

Good luck hanging out in Rogers

Ironcially, the best way to protect against economic attack might be embracing our attacker. At least in a portfolio sense. What if they win? What if they destroy Canada economically? They can. Trump might. The U.S. would get stronger as we get weaker. Good luck hanging out in Rogers, Bell, BMO, CIBC, Enbridge, Magna and Suncor. Remember, America doesn’t need anything that Canada produces 😉

A portfolio can be used to hedge most economic events in life, even our country’s economic demise. I suggest that you protect yourself and your family first. Don’t remove what might be your best line of defence. If the U.S. remained an economic powerhouse (with U.S. companies leading the way), and the Canadian stock market and Canadian dollar collapsed, owning these great U.S. companies would make you rich in your own land. And in grotesque fashion, the greater the divide the richer you would get in your own land by way of those U.S. holdings. Here’s the U.S. market going up 4-fold from 2013 with the added currency boost. The weaker the Canadian Dollar, the greater your return.

Warren Buffett does not hate you

Keep in mind that the C.E.O.’s and management at Berkshire Hathaway, Pepsi, Microsoft, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson and Apple are not out to get you. Quite the opposite, they know a massive tariff war is a very, very, very bad idea for everyone.

In fact, Warren Buffett slams Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico and calls them an act of war. Most business leaders don’t like what’s going on, and it’s the same for so many, or most Americans …

And in Vermont …

The fact that a tariff war is a bad idea might be reason for optimism. For Seeking Alpha this week I offered Defensive stocks for unpredictable Trump policy.

From that article.

My take on the global tariff war concept is …

The bad news is a global tariff war spells economic destruction.

The good news is a global tariff war spells economic destruction.

Essentially, it can’t happen, I think and hope. The markets will push back and so will voters if the economy continues to weaken, and we see a spike in inflation.

It’s safe to say that Trump does not want to be a half-term President, again. They have mid-term elections in 2026.

But U.S. stocks are underperforming

Yes, you might have noticed. And I’ve been pointing this out to readers for several weeks. The markets have been turning their back on U.S. stocks and are embracing international equities. Continue Reading…

Why a Market Timing Strategy leads to poor investment Returns

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Forget relying on a market timing strategy to boost returns. Focus instead on these proven tips for successful investing.

Deposit Photos

Market timing is the practice of trying to predict future trends and turning points in stock prices. For most people, this is a wasted, if not harmful, effort.

Random events tend to occur in bunches. A market timing strategy generates a lot of random buy and sell signals. Some are bound to work out well. But few work out well enough to offset losses on the inevitable erroneous signals, and leave a decent profit leftover.

Why successful investors stay away from a market timing strategy

The practice of market timing consists of coming up with and acting on a series of guesses (or estimates, or probability assessments) to use in your buying and selling decisions. Market timing theory attempts to interpret and detect buy and sell signals in trading patterns and history. Some of the decisions you make with the help of market timing will bring you profits, and others will cost you money.

Market timing can pay off sporadically, of course. Although the results are largely random, successes and failures are apt to come in spurts. The worst thing that can happen to you near the start of an investing career is that you make a series of successful timing decisions. This may lead you to believe that you have a natural talent for market timing, or that you’ve stumbled on a timing process that’s a guaranteed money-maker. Either of these conclusions can spur you to back your future timing decisions with growing amounts of money.

A significant market setback of, say, 10% or more will come along eventually. Unfortunately, no one can consistently say when that will be. Trying to foresee setbacks is sure to cost you money, however. That’s because many of the setbacks you foresee won’t occur. If you act on your prediction and sell, you’ll miss out on profits. You may buy back in at higher prices, just in time to be in the market when the next setback does occur. That’s known as a “double whipsaw.”

Eventually it happens to a lot of market timers. Some react by giving up on market timing. Others just give up on investing.

The best market timing strategy I can offer is to buy steadily and carefully throughout your working years, and sell gradually in retirement. That approach is virtually certain to enhance your investing profits. For one thing, it stops you from selling all your stocks near a market bottom, which market timers do from time to time.

How to be a successful investor without using a market timing strategy

Instead of trying to master market timing, you are far better off to study the earmarks of successful investments. Your long-term investment results will improve a great deal if you simply learn to spot and recognize these earmarks, and understand how they differ from the common risk factors in unsuccessful investments.

Here’s a look at some ways to make better investments: Continue Reading…

Playing Defense with Sector ETFs

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Here’s how an equally weighted portfolio of healthcare, utility, and consumer staples ETFs could provide better downside protection and reduce volatility.

Image courtesy BMO ETFs/Getty Images

By Erin Allen, Director, Online Distribution, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index, isn’t as uniform as it might seem. While you may think of it as a homogenous entity, it’s far from reality.

The S&P 500 can be broken down into 11 Global Industry Classification System (GICS) sectors: information technology, health care, financials, consumer discretionary, communication services, industrials, consumer staples, energy, utilities, real estate, and materials.

Each sector groups together companies that operate in the same industry and offer similar products and services. Historically, different sectors have also shown varying levels of sensitivity to market and economic conditions.

Some are cyclical, meaning they typically do well during economic expansions but struggle in downturns. On the other hand, some sectors are considered defensive, as their revenues and earnings remain stable regardless of economic cycles.

One well-known investment strategy that takes advantage of these differences is sector rotation, where investors shift their money between sectors based on macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation.

Source: SPDR Americas Research. ++/– indicates the best/worst two performing sectors. +/- indicates the third best/worst performing sectors. The Energy sector did not make the top/bottom three sectors during any cycles, as it is less sensitive to U.S. economic cycles but more driven by global supply and demand of crude oil. For illustrative purposes only. 1

However, for risk-conscious investors, another approach involves overweighting defensive sectors — particularly health care, utilities, and consumer staples — to provide better downside protection and reduce portfolio volatility.

What makes a sector defensive?

A sector is considered defensive when its companies provide goods or services that consumers continue to purchase regardless of economic conditions.2

For example, when the economy weakens, a consumer might delay buying a new car or upgrading their phone. These are discretionary purchases: non-essential items that can be postponed until financial conditions improve.

In contrast, even during a recession, people still pay their water and gas bills and continue buying household essentials like groceries and personal care products.

The underlying economic principle at play here is elasticity. In economics, elasticity measures how much the quantity demanded of a product changes in response to price or income changes.

Goods with inelastic demand see little fluctuation in consumption, even when prices rise or consumer income declines. This makes sectors with inelastic demand more stable during market downturns.

  • Utilities: Electricity, water, and gas are necessities that households and businesses must pay for, regardless of economic conditions.
  • Consumer Staples: Essential items like food, personal care products, and household goods remain in demand even when discretionary spending drops.
  • Health Care: Medical services, prescription drugs, and insurance are critical expenses that people prioritize, often regardless of cost.

How defensive are these sectors?

One way to quantify how defensive a sector has historically been is to look at its beta, a measure of volatility relative to the broader market3.

The market itself has a beta of 1.0, meaning any stock or sector with a beta below 1.0 tends to be less volatile and moves less than the overall market during upswings and downturns.

When analyzing long-running sector ETFs, the historical five-year betas confirm that health care, consumer staples, and utilities have lower volatility than the broader market.

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) has a beta of 0.644, The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) comes in even lower at 0.575, and The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) has a beta of 0.746. This suggests that all three sectors historically experience smaller price swings compared to the S&P 500.

Further supporting this, research from State Street Global Advisors examined periods of steep market drawdowns. Between 1999 and 2022, there were 11 instances where the S&P 500 declined by 10% or more in a single quarter7.

They found that an equally weighted portfolio of health care, consumer staples, and utilities delivered significantly smaller losses than both the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Value Index.

 Morningstar direct. Data as of 6/30/227

This demonstrates how overweighting defensive sectors has historically provided better downside protection in times of market stress versus broad market indices.

The ETFs for the job

BMO’s lineup of SPDR Select Sector Index ETFs includes three options that align with the defensive sectors discussed earlier. These ETFs provide targeted exposure to U.S. health care, consumer staples, and utilities, ensuring investors can overweight these segments without exposure to the rest of the S&P 500. Continue Reading…

Navigating Volatility with Asset Allocation ETFs

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Image courtesy Harvest ETFs

By Ambrose O’Callaghan, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

The S&P 500 was down 3.53% in the year-to-date period as of mid-afternoon trading on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. Markets in the United States and across the globe have been hit with turbulence while the threat of tariffs has ramped up trade policy tensions. Earlier this month, we’d suggested that investors might consider taking it back to the basics.

In this piece, I want to explore why striking a defensive posture and pursuing diversification in your portfolio could provide peace of mind going forward.

The macroeconomic environment today

There are elevated risks that have led to uncertainty in the markets today. We are now two full months into Donald Trump’s second Presidential term. It already feels much longer than that to many Canadians. Investors may want to prepare for elevated volatility in the near to mid-term as there appears to be no immediate relief in sight when it comes to prickly trade tensions between allies and adversaries alike in the geopolitical sphere. Global trade policy uncertainty, a measurable index that quantifies policy risks, is the highest it has been since Trump’s first term.

Valuation concerns have been added to the risks and uncertainty. This is particularly true in the U.S. with regards to big tech. Investors have started to question the pace of earnings growth, as well as the strength and confidence of the consumer. A March report from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed it falling to 57.9. That is the lowest level since November 2022. It also represents a 10.5% drop from the same time in February 2025. Consumer sentiment had declined by 27.1% – or 21.5 points – in the year-over-year period. That is the largest annual decline since May 2022.

Between tariffs, geopolitics, valuations, and the economy, investors are being presented with an increasingly challenging and noisy backdrop.

Advantages of Asset Allocation funds

The biggest advantage that Asset Allocation funds offer investors is diversification. Diversification, it has been said, is the only “free lunch” in investing. Diversification does not eliminate risk, but it does spread out risk broadly. That has the potential to create more robust portfolios.

Asset Allocation exchange-traded funds (ETFs) help investors better diversify their holdings. These ETFs also provide the discipline to stay invested in the market to help manage the market gyrations that all investors inevitability experience. Staying invested in markets, especially in times of heightened volatility, is historically what sets investors up for long-term investing success. Moreover, asset allocation strategies offer investors the benefit of the package. While many investors may tweak exposures through individual ETF holdings, many can benefit from the “one-ticket approach” offered by asset allocation ETFs.

Asset allocation strategies in 2025

The Harvest Diversified Equity Income ETF (HRIF:TSX) allocates to other Harvest Equity Income ETFs – which overlay an active covered call strategy on a portfolio of sector-focused equities – to generate attractive equity income across a well-diversified sector mix.

Meanwhile, the Harvest Diversified Monthly Income ETF (HDIF:TSX) represents the same portfolio of Harvest Equity Income ETFs. However, HDIF employs modest leverage at approximately 25% to amplify returns and income.

Notable sectors in these ETFs include defensives like health care, utilities, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and it is complemented by growth sectors such as technology and industrials. The use of the covered call writing strategy transforms market volatility into higher levels of cashflow. These ETFs are one-ticket globally diversified equity income exposures, offering attractive overall yields.

A traditional balanced asset allocation portfolio

The traditional “balanced” investment portfolio is composed of 60% equities and 40% bonds. In 2024, Harvest launched the Harvest Balanced Income & Growth ETF (HBIG:TSX) and the Harvest Balanced Income & Growth Enhanced ETF (HBIE:TSX). These ETFs incorporate Fixed Income ETFs into the mix, aiming to replicate that 60/40 asset allocation. These Fixed Income ETFs include intermediate and long duration US Treasuries. Continue Reading…

Gangster in the White House: This time it’s different.

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Royalty-free image by Sammy Sander on Pixabay

By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The four words ‘this time its different’ were made famous by Sir John Templeton as an admonition against the overzealous embrace of new paradigms.

To him, there is nothing new under the sun regarding the interplay of valuations and emotions in the emergence of investing bulls and bears. The thing is, sometimes the world changes in such a fundamental way that there really are no antecedents.

 For example, where is the precedent for having the gangster in the White House? As a thought exercise, imagine if Al Capone could have become President in the 1930s. Here’s a man who managed to avoid being brought to justice (sound familiar?), who ran his empire using violence and the threat of violence, and who, for a time, was wildly popular among those who knew him. He was petulant and reactive; not strategic and thoughtful (again, does that sound familiar?)

As of mid March, the U.S. has surrendered its status as a constitutional democracy, as the President has effectively put himself above the law by ignoring a court order. This is unprecedented. Nothing like it has ever happened before. It’s different. The United States is no longer a country of laws, it is a country of unbridled power for the person at the top. To paraphrase a recent article in Time magazine:

“… a court that cannot enforce its rulings is not a court – it is a suggestion box…. and a presidency that can ignore the courts without consequence is no longer constrained by law – it is an untouchable executive”.

No more wind in our sales from Bond Bull market

There are other things that are different in 2025, too. For starters, the world is dealing with an existential crisis – climate change – the likes of which has never been seen before. Then there are the challenges that, while not unprecedented in history, have not been encountered in our lifetimes. Debt levels, both private and public, are at their highest level since World War II. A bull market in bonds that lasted over 40 years ended a few years ago due to the normalization of rates coming out of COVID. There will be no more wind in our economic sails, as has been the case throughout the entirety of the investing lifetimes of everyone reading this.

The peace dividend has been paid out. Everywhere throughout the world, countries are rearming because of geopolitical instability that has arisen out of autocratic powers that seem determined to acquire new territory at all costs. Not only is this destabilizing geopolitically, it also diverts expenditure into military pursuits that would have otherwise gone toward expanding the economy and/or some element of improved social justice.

Deglobalization is very much part of this new reality, too. Tariff barriers are being erected by the gangster madman, and countries around the world feel they have no meaningful recourse other than to reciprocate in retaliation, thereby exacerbating the needless self-inflicted harm. Continue Reading…