Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

An Evidence-based Approach to Investing with Asset Allocation ETFs

Posted By |
Getty Images, courtesy BMO ETFs

By Erin Allen, CIM®, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

Introduction

The importance of asset allocation in investment management cannot be understated. Pioneering research by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower attributed over 90% of a portfolio’s performance variability to asset allocation decisions, making it the most important determinant in long-term investment outcomes1.

ETFs are remarkably effective market access tools, offering investors precision, liquidity, and cost efficiency to enhance portfolio construction.

This article explores asset allocation in depth, focusing on how Asset Allocation ETFs can serve as evidence-based approach for building resilient and diversified portfolios.

Theoretical Foundations of Asset Allocation: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)

Harry Markowitz’s (1952) Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) laid the groundwork for efficient portfolio construction2, pointing out the benefits of diversification to manage risk levels. According to MPT, an optimal portfolio balances risk and return by combining assets with low or negative correlations, thereby reducing overall portfolio volatility2. This is the idea of diversification with which we are likely more than familiar, not putting all your eggs in one basket.  While some investments go up, others will go down, thereby mitigating losses.

MPT allows investors to find an optimal asset mix that reflects both their return aspirations and their risk tolerance, minimizing the prospect of unexpected outcomes.

BMO’s suite of Asset Allocation ETFs, such as the BMO All Equity ETF (ZEQT), enables investors to achieve broad global diversification — a key principle of MPT — by providing exposure to multiple geographies and sectors within a single vehicle.  Regular rebalancing helps to align your portfolio with your personal risk tolerance and types of assets needed to meet your financial goals.

Asset allocation decisions must align with an investor’s risk tolerance and time horizon. Younger investors with longer time horizons may favor equity-heavy allocations, while retirees may prioritize income and capital preservation through fixed-income or conservative balanced strategies.

The key here is that individual investor needs are unique, and ETFs provide the tools for investors to create the optimal portfolio for their needs or, in the case of asset allocation ETFs, to choose from a pre-set mix ranging from conservative all the way to 100% equity.

 A Note on Diversification

Diversification determines the level of volatility in your portfolio. A paper by S&P Dow Jones Indices research team titled Fooled by Conviction, showed that Between 1991 and May 2016, the average volatility of returns for the S&P 500 was 15%, while the average volatility of the index’s components was 28%.3 Looking at the variability between one stock and 500 is an extreme example, but it  illustrates the important point that if the typical active manager owns 100 stocks now and alters to holding only 20, the volatility of his portfolio will likely increase.

Behavioral Finance and Asset Allocation

Behavioral biases, such as loss aversion, confirmation bias or overconfidence, often lead investors to deviate from their optimal asset allocation strategy.4 Common mistakes include choosing portfolios that may be too conservative to meet their financial needs, panic selling, following the latest meme trend, or failing to strategically rebalance their portfolio over time.

It’s not about timing the market; it’s about time in the market that pays off in the long run.

Rebalancing a portfolio is another potentially daunting task for investors.  You have to remember to do it on a monthly or quarterly basis, but there’s also the emotional/psychological aspect which can often get in the way.  Rebalancing is essentially selling your winners and adding to your loser. Not an easy thing to do, though we all know to buy low and sell high, as the old adage goes.

Allen Roth did a study around the benefit of rebalancing over time5. In a moderate or balanced portfolio, you can see that it added close to 20% to returns over a year period of almost 20 years.  Although there is no guarantee rebalancing will add to your returns going forward, history has shown that it is effective, and it is an important risk control measure.

Investment Performance 12/31/99 – 12/31/17
Total Returns with/without Rebalance

Boosting Returns with Rebalancing, Allan Roth and etf.com, 2018 – For illustrative purposes only

An automated rebalancing facility, such as the one embedded in BMO’s Asset Allocation ETFs, can help mitigate the risks of a portfolio that becomes concentrated due to a failure to rebalance,  ensuring portfolios remain aligned to their predetermined asset mix and risk levels.

A Passive Approach to Investing

Asset allocation ETFs take a strategic approach to portfolio construction, using passive index-based investing tools to build the underlying portfolio.  Passive investing brings the benefits of being lower cost, efficient, diversified, and transparency to a portfolio. Here is a common misconception that is easily negated with SPIVA (Standard and Poors Index versus Active) research (SPIVA | S&P Dow Jones Indices).  The evidence shows that active managers are highly cyclical but can add alpha or outperformance. In the majority of cases, however passive out-performs because it does not make predictions or assumptions.  As is often said, the market, or its index, is a giant weighing machine that tracks capital movements over an economic cycle.

Continue Reading…

What the Carbon Tax teaches us about investing

Posted By |
Image courtesy John De Goey

By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The very first thing Prime Minister Mark Carney did upon taking office was to scrap the consumer carbon tax. Depending on your degree of cynicism, the move was either desperate or brilliant. There is not much middle ground. He did so while noting that the tax had become divisive.

Few would disagree. The very large majority of economists who study the subject argue that putting a price on carbon is the most efficient and effective way of curbing CO2 emissions. Nobel laureate William Nordhaus has shown this convincingly.  Despite the evidence, retail investors simply hated the scheme.

Sometimes there’s a major disconnect between public policy and retail politics. Sensible policies can be rejected because a large percentage of the populace is determined to make decisions based on emotion rather than rationality. People will do what feels good you respective of what the evidence says.

It has been proven many times over that four out of five Canadians were better off paying the tax while cashing the rebate cheques, yet a large percentage of those same Canadians rejected putting a price on carbon at the consumer level. Since about 89% of all emissions come from industrial outputs, the political capital gained by Carney in dropping the consumer portion of the tax far exceeded the opportunity cost of a marginal emissions reduction. Why do so many people viscerally hate policies that conspicuously work against their own self-interest?

Confirmation Bias and Cognitive Dissonance

I believe the answer lies in both confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance. Simply put, people believe what they want to believe:

  1. a) because it makes them feel good; and
  2. b) because they engage in herding behaviour and conform to groupthink

It seems a substantial percentage of the human population actively resists evidence. Sometimes, that resistance appears in the form of political populism where ‘elites’, ‘globalists’ and ‘intelligentsia’ are rejected in favour of whatever populist leaders pass off as ‘common sense’. Confirmation bias is essentially pretending to look for evidence dispassionately, well actually looking for evidence that merely ‘confirms your priors.’ Stated differently, if you were predisposed to disliking a tax on carbon, no evidence to the contrary would have likely changed your opinion.

Similarly, in investing, there are several long-held beliefs that many people harbour that often go unchecked. Some are factually false, while others are merely dubious and open to interpretation and debate. In all cases, however, there is at least some suspension of disbelief to protect a pre-existing viewpoint that simply feels better than the evidence-based alternative. Continue Reading…

New to a RRIF? Make sure you have enough cash and consider dialing down risk

Posted By |

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published and covers something that was a new experience for me: starting and managing a RRIF or Registered Retirement Income Fund.

You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: How to make sure you have enough money to fund your RRIF withdrawals. 

At the end of the year you turn 71, those with RRSPs are required either to cash them out  (not recommended from the standpoint of taxes), to to annuitize orto convert it into a RRIF, or Registered Retirement Income Fund. The latter is the most popular action and recommended by experts like The Successful Investor’s Patrick McKeough.

            However,  as I’ve discovered since my own RRIF started up this past January, the sweetness of the RRSP tax deduction over the decades is offset by the sourness of having to pay taxable withdrawals on your new RRIF.

            In my case, I am a DIY investor who uses one of the big-bank discount brokers to self-manage the taxable distributions and to manage the remaining investments, most of them carryovers from the RRSP.  While accumulating funds in an RRSP is a matter of making annual contributions and reinvesting dividends and interest, a RRIF represents a departure from the psychology needed to build an RRSP for the future. Suddenly, regular selling is necessary. The RRIF rules mean that in the first year you’ll have to withdraw something like 5.28% of what your balance was at the start of the year (rising to 5.4% at age 72 and every upwards each passing year).

Payments can quarterly, monthly or any frequency you choose

          If you choose monthly payments, as I did, that means every month you have to have 1/12th of the required annual distribution in the form of ready cash to be whooshed out monthly on whatever date you specify. As most retirees will be getting other pensions near the end of the month, I chose mid-month for the RRIF distribution. You also need to choose the percentage of tax you wish to pay to Canada Revenue Agency: I picked 30%, which automatically leaves your account each month. The remaining 70% transfers out into your main chequing account, ideally at the same financial institution where the RRIF is held: It’s easier that way.

Setting regular tax payments

          You also need to choose the percentage of tax you wish to pay to Canada Revenue Agency: I picked 30%, which automatically leaves your account each month. The remaining 70% transfers out into your main chequing account, ideally at the same financial institution where the RRIF is held: It’s easier that way. Sure, you could set the tax at 10% or 20% but if you have other sources of taxable income, like taxable dividends and other pensions, I’d rather not have the unpleasant surprise of a larger-than-expected tax bill a year from April. Once you have a year of RRIFing under your belt, you may see fit to adjust the 30% upwards or downwards. Continue Reading…

Retirement Club for Canadians 

Posted By |

By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Hi, it’s Dale Roberts here. You know me from Cut The Crap Investing. My blog posts are often shared on Findependence Hub. 

Similar to Jonathan Chevreau I have a keen interest in helping Canadians prepare for retirement and make the most of retirement once they reach that wonderful stage in life. 

Too many Canadians enter retirement with some sense of anxiety. They may fear that they will outlast their money. They might not have created the all important life plan. 

More and more Canadians have self-directed their investment accounts. Now they need a resource that helps them set the course, and keep the course for a successful retirement. 

That’s why we created Retirement Club. Retirement Club for Canadians 

What is Retirement Club? 

Retirement Club is a community of like-minded Canadian retirees and near retirees. 

A successful retirement starts with financial security. Let’s call that fiscal fitness. We cover the financial essentials, in jargon-free plain-speak with clear demonstrations. You’ll learn how to spend down your portfolios in an efficient fashion. You’ll learn how to use free-use retirement calculators that create optimal retirement cash flow plans. That is, how to spend from your investment accounts, working in concert with CPP, OAS, pensions, and other income. 

The retirement portfolio will be discussed in detail. We need to align each account’s risk level to the task at hand: dictated by that retirement cash flow plan. 

As you may know, at Cut The Crap Investing I’ve offered a unique approach to managing risk: using lower volatility and defensive equities (consumer staples, healthcare and utilities) in concert with traditional risk managers such as cash, bonds, GICs, gold, annuities and more. During the volatility of 2025, these defensive assets have been the top performers. 

Of course the financial topics are numerous, from wills and estates, to insurance, tax tips, healthcare costs and more.

Retirement by design

Next comes the life plan. Each of us will decide on our level of travel and entertainment, family time, leisure and living life full of purpose. We’ll provide and share lifestyle inspiration. We’re doing it right when financial security enables a rich and rewarding lifestyle. We need to retire with vitality and purpose. How do we replace the ‘good stuff’ we got out of our working years? 

How do we learn and connect? 

At a minimum we’ll have …  

  • A monthly one hour Zoom presentation (the next one is April 25th at noon).
  • A monthly newsletter 

The Zoom presentations are lively and interactive. They start with a learning session but move on with Clubbers asking questions and taking part in break out sessions. We end with a 15 minute ‘after party.’ It’s a Club environment. 

Our Community Captain, Brent Schmidt of Strategic Fuel, l creates an engaging club experience.  Continue Reading…

How to stay calm and Invest confidently amid Stock Market Fluctuations

Posted By |

Letting unnecessary stock market worries take hold of your investment decisions can lead to much bigger problems than just finding stocks to buy

TSInetwork.ca

Our early ancestors had to be on guard against threats in their environment. They were under constant threat. At night, if you woke to every sound from the bushes, you lost some sleep, but you cut your risk of being eaten by a lion or killed by an enemy. Today we face much less risk from animal predators and human marauders. But many people still carry this hair-trigger fear response. We spend more time than we should worrying about things that will never happen. This includes stock market worries.

That’s especially true of investors, who generally think more about the future than other people. It’s true all the more of subscribers to our newsletters and members of my Inner Circle service.

Understand stock market worries and risk so you can put everything in perspective

That’s because many of you are the kind of people who seek out investment information from a variety of written sources, where it’s much more extensive and detailed than what you get from a glance at the headlines, the evening news or cable TV. However, some of that information is biased, overblown or incorrect.

This doesn’t mean you should ignore potential threats. You just need to put them in perspective.

Learn what experienced investors do about common stock market worries

There is never a shortage of ways to ease your stock market worries. “You never go broke taking a profit,” is a favourite of brokers I’ve met over the years. They used them to spur their clients to do more trades, to boost their own commission income.

Our view now is that stocks are still a good place for your money, if you can afford to stay invested for several years. If you expect you will need to take money out of your portfolio, you should think about selling sooner than you need to.

Look beyond immediate stock market movements to help reduce your anxiety and stock market worries

Stock market trends are the general direction in which the stock market is heading. These market trends are dictated by a number of factors: what sector investors favour at the moment, economic and world news, interest rates and other trends from industries such as technology or resources, and so on. These trends could be positive or negative, and they could lead to a huge boom for a stock market. They could also lead to a big downturn. Continue Reading…