Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

Why Secular Trends beat Market Indicators

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Forget about market indicators–picking up on secular trends is a much better way to spot top stocks

TSInetwork.ca

Investors sometimes ask how I learned about investing and the stock market. The answer is that I started early, read a lot, and learned how to write so that readers understand what I’m saying.

I got started as a teenager, with a part-time job for an investment writer. My job was to gather and organize information on public companies and the economy. This called for a lot of reading, but I was always an avid reader.

Learning how to write easy-to-read material is also a plus. After all, you have to understand information to be able to explain it to others.

During my first full-time decade in the investing business, I learned that many factors influence market trends. Naturally, I tried to learn about or create market indicators that could tell me how these factors could help my investing. Gradually it dawned on me that most market indicators turn out to reflect the fact that random events tend to occur in bunches.

Some of these bunches are big enough and last long enough that you can mistake them for sure signs that the market is headed in a particular direction.

The four-year U.S. Presidential Election indicator is different. It’s the most valuable market indicator I know of because it takes advantage of recurring cycles in the U.S. Presidential Election cycle. It’s still far from perfect. However, you might say that every few years, it gives investors a helpful nudge in the right direction.

The four-year rule is of little interest to many investors, particularly those who are new to the game. They lack the patience for it. Over the years, I’ve talked to many young investors who seem more interested in short-term trading than in our long-term Successful Investor approach.

From their point of view, they don’t need to obsess about risk because they don’t have enough investment capital to worry about losses. They say they’ll switch to our approach when they’ve made a windfall in something that works out as they hoped. When they have more money to risk, they’ll be more careful with it.

The trouble is that since they disregard risk, they may never acquire the gains they hope for. All too often, they get sucked into one bad investment after another. These include short-term trading (particularly in so-called meme stocks), dabbling in stock options or IPOs or SPACs or cryptocurrencies or NFTs. Dabblers fail to see that the big gains in these opportunities go to those who sell them to the investing public.

Secular trends beat market indicators

In the 1980s, I lost interest in market indicators and began to focus on secular trends. These are economic trends that last longer (sometimes much longer) than the typical prosperity/recession cycle.

Back then, for instance, goldbugs were sure that federal deficit spending was responsible for the high inflation of the period. It seemed to me that they were paying too little attention to the economic changes going on, particularly the impact of the baby boomers’ entry into the workforce. When employers hired boomers, it raised costs, since these newcomers needed training (particularly women who were going to work in higher numbers than previously). Continue Reading…

BMO ETFs’ third annual ETF Investor Day aimed at DIY investors

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On Tuesday, BMO ETFs conducted its third annual ETF Investor day. Conducted at the Toronto Stock Exchange, Do-it-yourself investors and finfluencers [Financial Influencers] were on hand for the ceremonial opening of the exchange, shown in the photo on the left. The Investor Day will also be held in Montreal on June 18: Details here. 

This marks BMO’s 17th year as a Canadian ETF provider, with $165 billion in Assets under management and 66 tickers  with a 10-year track record.

The first presentation was an economic and investing overview from Fred Demers, Director of Multi Asset Strategy at BMO Global Asset Management. He teased whether the R word refers to a Recession or Resilience when it comes to forecasting the economy. While the world is likely to remain messy, “the good news is the world always carries on.”

Demers is particularly bullish about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy and the Tech giants that power innovation and in particular the A.I. Capex boom and AI infrastructure buildout. Stock markets are already seeing beyond the drama of the war in Iran, he said, led by a 12% gain YTD 2026 in Emerging Markets, 9% or so for the Nasdaq and almost 8% for the TSX, as shown in the chart below taken from the presentation.

Fixed income is not doing much of anything, which is to be expected when the economy is doing well but would show its value if a Recession got under way accompanied by Job Loss, which he said is not yet where we are. Gold has returned almost 6%, disappointing given the Middle East conflict but “still doing its thing short-term.” Its role is not to diversify equities but to diversify fixed Income.

Obviously the oil shock hurts and is a clear negative for Growth but it remains to be seen how severe it will be. Demers said Trump’s Tariffs amount to basically the equivalent of a 3% GST (a reference to Canada’s Goods & Services Tax).

He said it’s good to diversify globally but investors worried about the impact of Trump should “be careful about exiting the U.S. entirely.” The AI race is primarily between the US and China and AI Capex will keep roaring for years if not for decades. We are “not even half way through the capex cycle.” AI Capex spending has reached a “phenomenal” US $350 billion, and is on track to pass US$750 billion in 2026; the hyperscalers are planning between $1.1 and $1.2 trillion.

By contrast, AI Capex in Canada is not even $50 billion. Just ten giant American companies generate a third of the country’s economic activity. These are the big-tech titans but the U.S. economy has also become an Energy Powerhouse: the biggest oil producer in the world and net exporter of energy. Next is Saudi Arabia and Russia, with Canada in fourth and Iran is ninth. (See chart shown in the Sector section below)

Sector ETFs

The second talk was by Simona Mocuta, managing director and chief economist for State Street Investment Management (shown on the left). BMO recently launched a suite of BMO SPDR Select Sector Index ETFs with State Street and sector investing was the focus of her talk.  She started by saying she agreed with everything Fred said, drawing laughs when she said “it’s nice to see a Canadian that still likes the United States.”

BMO’s vice president of Online Distribution ETFs Zayla Saunders asked Mocuta about a SPDR energy ETF [XLE/TSX] to capitalize on surging oil and gas prices sparked by the Iran conflict. “Go for it,” Mocuta says, “Talk AI all you want but you need Energy to make it happen.” With the Iran war, the U.S. is telling Europe to buy from the U.S., which makes Energy as “compelling buy-and-hold.” The chart below is from Demers’ presentation:

Among other sectors, Technology was by far the best performer in April, Mocuta said, but there have been over the last 12 months strong inflows into Industrials, Materials and Energy.” However, investors should also consider less-loved sectors like Healthcare.

In response to an audience question about the U.S. financial sector, Mocuta said that in the medium term banks are being deregulated, which is a huge positive after the regulatory burdens imposed after the Great Financial Crisis. Continue Reading…

Silver Tsunami: Why the Best Business Transitions involve a Warm Hand

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Image: Unsplash

By Jeff Johnstone, National Bank Financial Wealth Management

Special to Financial Independence Hub

In my world, financial planning is a lot like building a home. You can spend decades refining the interior — growing revenue, managing cash flow, building something you are proud of — but without a strong foundation, the entire structure remains vulnerable.  For the roughly 500,000 small business owners across Ontario, that foundation isn’t only  the balance sheet; it’s a clear, well-structured succession plan.

 We’re standing on the edge of what many call a “silver tsunami.” By 2030, more than one in five Ontarians will be 65 or older. It represents one of the largest transfers of leadership and wealth in history. Today, nearly 75% of business owners are planning to exit within the next decade. For founders, that creates a new reality because it’s no longer about finding just a buyer, it’s about being a business worth finding and buying. Yet while many expect to exit, few have a clear plan for what happens next.

 When entrepreneurs sit down with us, three themes tend to surface:

  • Concentration risk — the majority of their net worth is tied to a single asset: the business
  • Tax complexity — not whether tax will be paid, but how much can be preserved
  • Uncertainty — stepping away is not just financial, but deeply personal

 These challenges are all interconnected. For incorporated business owners, personal and corporate wealth need to be aligned: linking how value is created inside the business with how wealth is ultimately realized outside of it. The goal isn’t  to extract value at the end, but to translate it gradually into long-term financial independence.  Without that bridge, the business risks becoming not a means to an end, but the end itself.

Founders often underestimate Timing

 One of the biggest misconceptions we see is timing. Many founders believe they can decide to sell and complete the process within six months. When in reality, a successful, high-value transition rarely follows a short-term timeline. The average timeline is closer to five years from initial planning to final sale. Understanding this matters because, if you wait until you’re ready to exit — or until you’re burned out — and believe it can be all closed quickly, you’ve already lost leverage and, in many cases, left value on the table. Buyers don’t just assess financial performance; they assess risk. A business heavily dependent on its founder carries a very different profile than one that can operate independently.

 The earlier you start, the more control you have. That’s the takeaway here.  Early planning changes what buyers see. It creates time to strengthen management, reduce key-person risk, and professionalize operations. It also allows for what I often describe as a “financial clean-up”—organizing financials, addressing shareholder loans, and ensuring the business can run without you at the center.  Because ultimately, it’s about being profitable, as well as it’s being sellable.

 One of the  most complex parts of succession is rarely financial, and  happens outside the boardroom and round the dinner table.  We call this “dinner table math,”  when assumptions are made but haven’t (or rarely) been discussed. For example, parents may assume the children will take over the business, but they do not want to. Yet,  the children may feel obligated to, even if their interests lie elsewhere. Beneath it all are unspoken expectations about what feels fair.

Where many transitions begin to unravel

 This is where many transitions begin to unravel. Nearly 70% fail because of breakdowns in communication and trust, versus market conditions. For example, in one case we had one family assume the business would pass to the next generation. Through structured conversations, it became clear that while the children respected what had been built, none of the kids wanted to run it. That honesty  was difficult, but the clarity was necessary.  It opened the door to a different path that was  focused on a structured sale to an external buyer, alongside a plan to distribute proceeds in a way that felt fair and transparent. Just as importantly, it preserved the family relationships.

 These are not decisions founders should navigate alone. With the right advisory team — wealth advisors, accountants and legal professionals — we can help create space for better conversations and more thoughtful decisions.  In our experience, the best work happens alongside a dedicated M&A and investment banking team who can help deliver a more coordinated approach. Preparation becomes more intentional, buyer selection more strategic and outcomes — across valuation, structure, and legacy — more aligned with what matters most. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: FIRE Bloggers starting Early Retirement in their 50s and even 40s

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a handful of FIRE bloggers who should be familiar to readers of this site, Findependence Hub: notably Mark Seed of myownadvisor and Bob Lai of Tawcan.

As you can see by clicking on the column headline, How are FIRE adherents making out?, Seed recently announced he has reached his Financial Independence in his early 50s. Bob Lai, meanwhile, is still working in his 40s but blogged on how he hopes to reach Findependence before 2030.

The MoneySense column also updates the status of veteran personal finance columnist Rob Carrick, who ended full-time employment at the Globe & Mail last year, the subject of an earlier Retired Money column.  And we mention a good blog by The Retirement Manifesto’s Fritz Gilbert about the 12 Good Years between age 60 and 72. As I ironically close the column with, it seems I have just used up my own 12 good years!

The real focus of the MoneySense column is however Mark Seed, just as it was Carrick last summer. In both cases, we exchanged views in Zoom or GoogleMeets over the course of an hour or so.

By now, it’s hardly necessary to remind readers that the FIRE acronym stands for Financial Independence Retire Early, as the image above  illustrates.

Note that our FIRE subjects in the column span four decades: Lai his 40s, Seed his 50s, Carrick his 60s and I am in my 70s, evidently still running this website and writing for MoneySense, a former employer.

The end of Salaried Employment does not mean no more Working

The observant reader will note that none of the bloggers mentioned here have actually begun the traditional “Full-Stop Retirement.” When FIRE proponents describe Early Retirement, they usually mean leaving the comfort of full-time salaried employment and all that it entails: commuting, bosses, endless meetings, tax deducted at source, annual performance reviews and so on. Continue Reading…

Mark Seed: “I just did a thing: I retired in my early 50s”

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I  just did a thing: I retired in my early 50s

I can’t speak for others … but I’m sure there is a moment people imagine what their retirement day is and what that will feel like: a clean break, a celebratory toast, maybe even a sense of instant relaxation.

For me, while you could say stepping away from the workforce in my early 50s wasn’t a single moment – although April 23 was a special moment for me – it was actually the slow-progress and realization that I had crossed an invisible line into a completely new way of living.

And to be honest, even a few days after I handed in my laptop and badge, the feeling remains quite surreal about what just happened.

via GIPHY

I just did a thing – I retired in my early 50s

I just retired today - April 23, 2026

For most of my life, work shaped pretty much everything.

Work dictated my schedule (including requests for time-off and vacations), my priorities for the week, and even a big part of my own identity. These are not terrible things whatsoever but rather work involves trade-offs of my life energy, provided to an important cause, with financial compensation in return.

For more than 25 years while working at my former employer, a great one at that, conversations with others often began with:

“So, what do you do?”

“How is work?”

“What’s new with your job since we talked last time?”

And, I always had an answer.

For 25+ years.

Half of my life. 

Now, that answer is … well ….less straightforward.

While I enjoyed my job, the people I supported, my new identity is no longer defined by a job title whether that was going to the office physically or virtually from home.

Working for others is now my (very recent) former-self.

And certainly taking a leap-of-faith as I have told others, in my early 50s, to join my wife in Early Retirement was hardly accidental.

Early retirement was born out of many, many years of deliberate choices in life:

  • Consistent savings.
  • Keeping our investing costs low.
  • Investing in equities (stocks that paid dividends, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that paid distributions).
  • Getting out of debt.
  • And on and on …

What I am saying is there were both choices and important trade-offs made along the way. Early Retirement doesn’t happen overnight. It doesn’t happen in a year or so. It’s not something you just wake up and do.

While some folks around me took the flashy options, I often choose the less obvious road.

Maybe I missed out on things in doing so. Maybe I should have spent more money on things or experiences: although after already visiting many countries around the world to date I’m not quite convinced I’m that hard done by …

So, to be honest, instead of feeling like I really missed out over the years I see my lifestyle choices much differently this weekend: they bought me time.

And time, I believe, is the real currency of any retirement: My Own Advisor.

I just did a thing: I retired in my early 50s. So, now what?

My journey beforehand, including what I wrote about on this site, was mostly financial and not too personal.

I suspect moving forward it’s going to be a better balance.

Financially, it’s more about the shift from saving to spending.

The shift from saving to spending

The shift from saving to spending My last paycheque from a decades-long career at my current employer will be arriving in a few months for me – so there is a real need (soon) to shift from saving to spending. I’ve been thinking about some form of retirement for some time. There are many ways … Continue reading The shift from saving to spending

My Own Advisor

Continue Reading…