Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

10 Business Leaders discuss Role of Budgeting in Debt Reduction

Image courtesy Featured.com

Exploring the critical role of budgeting in debt reduction and the journey to financial independence, we’ve gathered insights from founders and CEOs among others.

From the disciplined approach of discipline and frugality through budgeting to the strategic perspective of budgeting and debt management for independence, here are the diverse experiences of ten professionals who’ve successfully navigated their finances.

 

 

  • Discipline and Frugality
  • Debt Reduction and Savings
  • A Financial Compass
  • Fiscal Success
  • Navigating Finances
  • Clarity and Control
  • Financial Stability and Empowerment
  • A Roadmap to Financial Freedom
  • Enhanced Financial Control
  • Debt Management for Independence

Discipline and Frugality

Being in a financial crisis is not uncommon for the average person; we have all seen people in our lives suffer under the massive weight of debt and how it subsequently affects our quality of life. To get out of debt, you need to be disciplined and frugal. Following a budget needs to become a regular part of your life so that you can achieve financial freedom sooner rather than later.

When you budget, following a rule like 50/30/20, it helps you manage your income in a way that reduces your debt and allows you to live a fulfilled life while still preparing for any unexpected hiccups in the future.

When you budget following a ratio rule, you need to be flexible with the money allocated for “wants,” i.e., the 30 in the ratio. This means cutting out anything in your life that isn’t necessary—such as buying the extra coffee, eating takeout daily, or subscribing to services that you don’t use.

So, don’t allow yourself to fall into the lifestyle-creep trap. By cutting these non-essentials out, you can funnel the extra money into your essentials and debt repayments—which loosens the burden for you and your future.

That being said, you don’t have to make yourself burnt out from budgeting; it’s okay to treat yourself and splurge a little as a reward for doing well with your financial goals. You just need to know your limits and where to draw the line. Zach Robbins, Founder, Loanfolk

Debt Reduction and Savings

Budgeting is hugely important for reducing debt and achieving financial independence because it can help you determine how much you can contribute each paycheck toward these goals. For instance, with a budget, you can learn exactly how much you have left over each month after essential expenses, such as rent, groceries, and electricity. Once you have this number, you can allocate a portion of your remaining income to reducing debt and savings.

For me, personally, budgeting helps me realize when I’ve overspent in certain areas and need to rein it in so that I will have enough to put towards savings or debt payoff.Meredith Lepore, Content Strategist/Editor/Writer, Credello

A Financial Compass

Budgeting plays a crucial role in reducing debt and achieving financial independence. By ensuring you spend within your means, it acts as a financial compass.

For instance, when I faced a mounting credit card debt, which mirrored the national average of around $6,000, budgeting became my lifeline. It wasn’t just about tracking expenses but making conscious choices about spending.

This approach helped me not only clear my debt but also build a savings habit, leading to a more secure financial future. Tobias Liebsch, Co-Founder, Fintalent.io

Fiscal Success

Budgeting is the financial roadmap to success. As a tech CEO, it’s been my steering wheel on the road to fiscal independence. An example would be when we faced a financial bottleneck. We reevaluated our costs, cutting back on non-essential company perks, and reallocated those funds towards paying down our debt.

Thanks to strategic budgeting, we were debt-free in less than a year. Therefore, proper budgeting isn’t just number-crunching; it’s crucial for cuts, savings, and gains, propelling us toward the land of fiscal freedom. Abid Salahi, Co-founder & CEO, FinlyWealth

Navigating Finances

The importance of budgeting in the journey toward reducing debt and achieving financial independence cannot be overstated—it’s the financial equivalent of a compass on a voyage across the open sea. Without it, you’re essentially navigating blind, at the mercy of the winds and currents. But with it, you can chart a course to your destination, making informed decisions that keep you on track.

There was a time when my financial situation felt like a sinking ship—credit card debt and personal loans were the water flooding in, and I was desperately bailing it out with a leaky bucket. I realized that if I wanted to reach the shores of financial independence; I needed a better strategy.

That’s when I embraced budgeting with open arms. I started by laying out all my expenses and income, categorizing them with the meticulousness of a librarian. It was eye-opening to see where my money was actually going, rather than where I thought it was going. I discovered leaks in my spending—money trickling away on things that, frankly, weren’t adding much value to my life, like a gym membership I barely used or subscription services that just piled up.

Armed with this knowledge, I began to plug these leaks, reallocating those funds toward paying off my debt. Every dollar saved was like a bucket of water thrown overboard, lightening the load and bringing my ship higher in the water.

But budgeting did more than just help me manage my debt; it empowered me. It transformed my relationship with money from one of anxiety and scarcity to one of control and abundance. Through disciplined budgeting, I was able to pay off my debts significantly faster than I had thought possible. More importantly, it laid the foundation for building savings and investments, guiding me toward the ultimate goal of financial independence.

The journey wasn’t always smooth sailing. There were months when unexpected expenses threw me off course, but because I had a budget, I could adjust my sails and get back on track. Budgeting gave me the flexibility to deal with financial storms without capsizing. Michael Dion, Chief Finance Nerd, F9 Finance

Clarity and Control

Budgeting is absolutely critical for getting out of debt and achieving financial independence. When I first started trying to pay down my student loans and credit card debt in my early 20s, I felt completely overwhelmed. I was living paycheck to paycheck and had no idea where my money was going each month. Continue Reading…

The revival of the 60/40 rule: Good for brokers, but not for investors

The revival of the 60/40 rule is a plus for brokers – but not for investors

Image by Pexels: RDNE Stock Project

Some experienced brokers (now more often referred to as investment advisors) are pleased at the recent rise in interest rates and inflation. After all, it could lead to a revival of the 60/40 rule, which was in common use for much of the second half of the 20th century, especially among experienced stockbrokers. Veteran brokers understood how to use it to spur clients to do more trading between stocks and bonds, and pay more brokerage commissions and fees.

The 60/40 rule is based on the proposition that a good-quality, balanced portfolio is made up of 60% good-quality stocks and 40% good-quality bonds. This idea leads to another: that investors can enhance their results by “rebalancing” their portfolios when they get away from that 60/40 goal, due to divergences between the bond and stock markets.

This is one of those clever ideas that at first glance, seems to make sense to many investors. It makes sense to brokers because it’s sure to make money for them. The payoff is rather less certain for the paying customers: the investors.

The problem is that stock and bond prices rise and fall under the influence of ever-changing sets of random factors: sometimes moving them in the same direction, other times moving them apart. These sets of random factors will vary in a random fashion as well. The stock/bond balance in a portfolio can hold steady for long periods, or swing abruptly from the “ideal” 60/40 split in a single day. This can happen even on a quiet day with few news developments to promote buying or selling.

The 60/40 rule gives the broker a rationale for proposing trades in a portfolio when changes in stock and bond prices have moved the portfolio away from the idealized 60/40 split.

This leads to another of the many conflicts of interest that exist in the investment business. However, unlike the hidden bond commissions I mentioned above, some brokers made a living out of the 60/40 rule. In my days as a broker, some old-timers in the office told me they could use the rule to add 2% to 4% of a client’s total portfolio to their gross annual commissions.

Any trade in your portfolio will cost you money in the form of fees and/or commissions, regardless of whether you make or lose money. But every trade you do in your portfolio will make money for the brokerage firm and/or salesperson, of course. That’s how they get paid.

Useless as a market indicator, great as a marketing device

We’ve often pointed out that market indicators sound a lot better than they perform. The 60/40 rule falls a step or two below an indicator. Rather than telling investors how they can make money in their investments, as market indicators supposedly do, this rule tells brokers and financial advisors how they can encourage their clients to do more buying and selling in the market, and thus increase broker incomes.

After all, the rule is based on a belief about the supposed advantage of a particular ratio of stocks to bonds in a portfolio. It’s not as if the rule comes with instructions on when to buy or sell, as you can derive from many market indicators. Instead, it gives brokers a rationale for advising their clients to buy bonds and sell stocks (or vice versa) more often. Continue Reading…

A Year in Review & Beyond: Navigating Curveballs and Embracing the Future

By Alizay Fatema, Associate Portfolio Manager, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

As we begin the new year, it’s only fitting to cast a retrospective gaze in 2023 and unravel the pivotal moments that altered the landscape of the global markets. 2023 was a year where several themes dominated the global economy while it was still recovering from the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking in the rear-view mirror, some of the key contributors to financial markets volatility were the banking crisis, inflation concerns and central banks monetary tightening policies, rise of the artificial intelligence and geo-political risks stemming from the ongoing wars.

Unveiling the Banking Turmoil

Unlike the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 that was triggered by risky mortgage lending practices, the banking upheaval of March 2023 started owing to deficiencies in risk management and lack of proper supervision which ultimately caused multiple small-medium sized regional banks to fail in the U.S.

During the month of March 2023, Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank faced bank runs over fears of their solvency and collapsed [1][2]. As a result, share prices of other banks such as First Republic Bank (FRB), Western Alliance Bancorporation and PacWest Bancorp plunged. FRB was later closed, and its deposits and assets were sold to JP Morgan Chase. Internationally, the jitters of the US banking crisis spilled over into Switzerland, where Credit Suisse collapsed owing to multiple scandals, and was acquired by its competitor, the UBS Group AG, in a buy-out on March 19, 2023 [3].

The Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Canada (BoC), European Central Bank, and several other central banks announced significant liquidity measures to calm market turmoil and mitigate the impact of the stress [4].

The Interest Rate Hiking Odyssey

Deeming inflation as transitory during 2021, central banks finally embraced inflation as a persistent problem and engaged in interest rate hiking saga starting from March 2022 which continued into 2023. These aggressive rate hikes had a significant impact on the financial markets as they made borrowing more expensive and led to record high bond yields. The chart below shows that the Fed conducted multiple hikes to bring the rates to 5.5%, highest level in more than 22 years [5]. BoC also increased its policy rate to 5% in a similar fashion.

Any “good news was bad news” in 2023 as robust labour market and resilient economic growth meant that central banks would have to keep interest rates higher for longer to the detriment of equities. Given the effect of monetary policy changes are subject to a lag, we would have to wait and see the full impact on the economy in the coming months.

The Rise of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshaping the future

2023 left an indelible imprint on the trajectory of technological evolution due to the rise of artificial intelligence and its profound effects that reverberated across numerous industries. We witnessed a pivotal juncture in the progression of generative AI in 2023 ever since Open AI released ChatGPT on November 30, 2022 [6], and within a few months it became one of the fastest growing applications in history and created a massive frenzy in the tech world. Despite concerns about the repercussion of higher interest rates in 2023, investors’ enthusiasm for AI took centre stage and the Nasdaq 100 index achieved the best year in over a decade owing to a stellar performance of the leading tech companies.

The Ascendance of Money Market ETFs in an Uncertain Financial Landscape

Assets in money-markets, high-interest savings accounts (HISAs) and other cash-like investments reached an all-time high during 2023 after the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle that was started by the Fed & BoC in 2022.  There is nearly $6 trillion parked in these funds and cash deposits in the U.S. [7], and over $25 billion in cash and HISA ETFs in Canada.

Yielding over 5%, these money market funds attracted retail investors, serving as a great avenue to park cash with guaranteed liquidity, minimum risk, low volatility, and flexibility. However, the recent shift in the Fed & BoC stance is signaling the end of the tightening campaign and projecting rate cuts in 2024. The latest ruling by office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) to uphold 100% liquidity requirements on HISA ETFs may impact the dynamic of these money market/HISA funds during this year.

Geopolitical Risks amidst two Ongoing Conflicts

2023 went down in history as being a year marked by two big wars: an ongoing conflict in Ukraine that started in 2022 as it fights off a Russian invasion and the outbreak of violence in the Middle East in October 2023 between Israel and Hamas [8].

Fear of potential escalation in the Middle East conflict and prospects of the war spilling over in the wider region added to uneasiness in the markets as the region is a crucial supplier of energy and a key shipping passageway. The market reacted to the news of the conflict by shifting towards safe-haven assets as this unforeseen geopolitical event increased uncertainties [9].

Dodging Recession, Double Digit Equity Returns and a Comeback in Fixed Income

During 2023, many investors feared that higher-for-longer interest rates would trigger a recession in the U.S and would take a toll on corporate profits and bond returns. As the Fed embarked upon the most aggressive rate hiking cycle, the yield curve inverted, sending a classic warning signal of a looming recession.

Moreover, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index dropped below 50 in November 2023, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. Despite having the highest prediction of a recession with heightened volatility in the markets throughout 2023, the US economy avoided recession and equities posted double digit returns. Moreover, fixed income rebounded in 2023 and reported positive returns after persistently declining for two years, thanks to the bond rally in the last two months of 2023 as markets priced in rate cuts for early 2024.

The Canadian economy also dodged recession, largely attributed to substantial immigration which bolstered overall spending and economic growth. However, the GDP per capita declined, indicating that spending hasn’t matched the influx of newcomers primarily due to the increasing costs of home ownership and rent further exacerbating the housing crisis.

 

“Index returns do not reflect transactions costs, or the deduction of other fees and expenses and it is not possible to invest directly in an Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.”

 Could 2024 be the Year of Fixed Income?

After having a humbling experience in 2023, the market consensus has now shifted for 2024 with the majority of fund managers in the U.S. expecting a soft landing for the economy [10], which might fuel rate cuts now that the sky-high inflation is subsiding and heading down towards the Fed’s & BoC’s target.

The chance of higher policy rates going forward is slimmer and the potential for rate cuts in 2024 is much stronger if inflation cools off further, the labour market weakens, consumer demand diminishes, and economic growth slows down. Both central banks indicated that future policy decisions will be data dependent and any rate cuts in 2024 will be contingent on inflation cooling off meaningfully, i.e., in line with their 2% target.

The market is currently anticipating rates to remain elevated till Q2 of 2024 as the labour market still seems robust and the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) print pushed the expectation of rate cuts even further. Continue Reading…

Mastering Monetization: A Comprehensive Guide for Podcast Owners

Image courtesy Canada’s Podcast

By Philip Bliss

Special to Financial Independence Hub

As a podcast owner, the dream goes beyond sharing your passion and insights with the world: it includes turning that passion into a sustainable source of income. Monetizing your podcast requires strategic planning, consistent effort, and a deep understanding of your audience. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through practical steps, timelines, and essential tasks to help you successfully monetize your podcast.

Task 1: Define Your Niche and Audience (Timeline: 1-2 weeks)

Before diving into monetization strategies, it’s crucial to have a clear understanding of your podcast’s niche and target audience. Identify the topics that resonate most with your listeners and refine your content to cater to their interests. This process involves analyzing your current audience demographics, studying popular episodes, and researching industry trends. This step lays the foundation for effective monetization by ensuring that your content aligns with the needs and preferences of your audience.

Task 2: Optimize Your Content and Branding (Timeline: 2-4 weeks)

Enhance your podcast’s marketability by investing time in optimizing your content and branding. Develop a memorable podcast name, design eye-catching cover art, and create a compelling podcast description. Consistency in branding helps build a strong identity, making it easier for potential sponsors and advertisers to recognize and trust your podcast.

Image courtesy Canada’s Podcast/unsplash royalty free

Task 3: Build a Solid Listener Base (Timeline: Ongoing)

Monetization success relies heavily on having a dedicated and engaged audience. Implement strategies to grow your listener base, such as promoting your podcast on social media, collaborating with other podcasters, and encouraging audience interaction through surveys or Q&A sessions. A strong and loyal community is an attractive proposition for potential sponsors and advertisers.

Task 4: Research and Approach Potential Sponsors (Timeline: 4-6 weeks)

Identify companies or products that align with your podcast’s theme and audience. Craft a compelling pitch that highlights the value of advertising on your podcast, emphasizing your reach and engagement metrics. Reach out to potential sponsors via email or through networking events, showcasing the unique opportunities your podcast offers for their brand exposure. Continue Reading…

When Low Rates cause people to do Dumb Things

Image courtesy Outcome/ShareAlike 3.0 Unported 

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

When cash, high quality bonds, and other safe assets offer little yield, investors get caught between a rock and a hard place. They can either (1) accept lower returns and maintain their allocation to safe assets or (2) liquidate safe assets and invest the proceeds in riskier assets such as equities, high yield bonds, private equity, etc.

Using history as a guide, when faced with this dilemma many people choose the second option. This decision initially produces favorable results as the increase in demand for stocks pushes prices up. However, as this reallocation progresses, prices reach levels which are unreasonable from a valuation perspective, and the likely returns from risk assets do not compensate investors for their associated risk. At this juncture, committing additional capital to risk assets becomes akin to picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. For the most part, this narrative is what played out across markets following the global financial crisis of 2008.

Following the global financial crisis, near-zero rates pushed investors to take more risk than they would have in a normal rate environment, which entailed making outsized allocations to stocks and other risk assets.

Unable to bear the thought of receiving negligible returns on safe assets, people continued to pile into risk assets even as their valuations became unsustainable.

Had central banks not begun raising rates aggressively in 2022 to combat inflation, it is entirely possible (and perhaps even likely) that stocks would have continued their ascent, valuations be damned!

Instead, rising rates provided risk assets with some worthy competition for the first time in over a decade, which in turn caused investors to rethink their asset mix and shed equity exposure.

The Equity Risk Premium: A Stocks vs Bond Beauty Contest

The equity risk premium (ERP) can be loosely defined as the enticement which investors receive in exchange for leaving the safety of Uncle Sam to take their chances in the stock market. More specifically it is calculated by subtracting the 10-year Treasury yield from the earnings yield on stocks. For example, if the P/E of the S&P 500 is 20 (i.e. earnings yield of 5%) and the yield on 10-year Treasuries is 3%, the ERP would be 2%.

Historically, stocks tend to produce higher than average returns following elevated ERP levels. Intuitively this makes sense. When valuations are cheap relative to the yields on safe assets, investors are getting well compensated for bearing risk, which tends to portend strong equity markets. Conversely, at times when stock valuations are rich relative to yields on safe assets and investors are getting scantily compensated for taking risk, lower than average returns from stocks have tended to ensue.

Chart courtesy Outcome
  • At the end of 2020, the S&P 500 Index’s PE ratio stood at 20 (i.e. an earnings yield of 5%), which by no means can be considered a bargain. However, stocks were nonetheless rendered attractive by ultra-low rates on cash and high-quality bonds. It’s easy to look good when you have little competition!
  • By the end of 2021, the Index’s PE ratio was above 24 (i.e. an earnings yield of 4.2%). Stocks were even less enticing than valuations suggested, given that 10-year Treasury yields had risen from 0.9% to 1.5%. This set the stage for a decline in both prices and valuations in 2022.
  • From an ERP perspective, 2022’s decline in valuations did not make stocks less stretched vs. bonds. The contraction in multiples (i.e. increase in earnings yield) was more than offset by a rise in bonds yields, thereby causing the ERP to be lower at the end of 2022 than it was at the start of the year.
  • In 2023, the S&P 500’s PE ratio expanded from approx. 18 to 23, which was not accompanied by any significant change in 10-year Treasury yields. By the end of the year, U.S. stock multiples had nearly regained the lofty levels of late 2021, despite the fact that Treasury yields had actually increased by over 2% during the two-year period.
  • In contrast, the relative valuation of Canadian stocks vs. bonds currently lies at levels that are neither high nor low relative to recent history.

 Low Rates: The Growth Stock amphetamine

Growth companies, as the term implies, are those that are projected to have rapidly growing earnings for many years. Whereas an “old economy” stock such as Clorox or General Mills might be expected to grow its profits by 2%-10% per year, a juggernaut like NVIDIA could be expected to double its profits every year for the foreseeable future. Continue Reading…