Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

Unlocking Wealth: Dividend ETF Investing

Pixabay: Gerd Altmann

By Sa’ad Rana, Senior Associate, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

When it comes to investment strategies, dividend or income investing holds a special place in the hearts of many investors, especially retirees. It’s not surprising, considering that dividends often constitute a substantial portion of a portfolio’s total return. Let’s dive into this popular approach and understand how Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) can be a game-changer.

The Dividend Advantage

Now, let’s dissect the significance of dividends in the realm of equity returns. Looking over the long-haul equity return expectations, the S&P has returned an average of around eight per cent over a 40+ year period[i]. In historical context, dividends have accounted for a significant portion of this return, ranging from three to four per cent. This underscores how dividends contribute almost half of the total equity market return annually[ii]. However, their true power lies in compounding. While you collect dividends each year, reinvesting them into equities sets the stage for exponential growth. This compounding effect is what propels your portfolio to higher echelons of growth.

Moreover, dividends are more than just monetary gains; they serve as a vital indicator of a company’s financial health. While not the sole indicator, companies with robust dividend policies often signal financial stability. It’s crucial to note, however, that not all dividends are created equal, a distinction we’ll explore further.

The Art of Portfolio Construction

We’ve witnessed a surge of interest in dividends:  evident in the significant influx of investments into the dividend space. But what are the actual benefits of incorporating dividend investments into your portfolio?

From a portfolio construction perspective, the benefits of including dividend-paying stocks are evident. We’ve examined 32 years of returns across various companies in the Canadian equity market. Dividing them into dividend growers, dividend payers, dividend cutters, and non-dividend payers, a clear pattern emerges.

The standout performers are the dividend Growers, showcasing the potential of quality dividend-paying stocks. Over this period, they have consistently outperformed the broad index, offering a higher average return. Moreover, when it comes to managing risk, dividend Growers and high-quality dividend payers exhibit a slightly lower level of volatility compared to the broader market. This suggests that a focus on sustainable, high-quality dividend stocks can lead to both enhanced returns and a controlled risk profile, making them a compelling addition to a well-rounded investment portfolio. It’s worth noting that not all dividends are created equal, and a discerning approach is crucial for maximizing the benefits of dividend investing.

Ensuring Sustainable Dividends

One of the crucial aspects of dividend investing is ensuring the sustainability of the payouts. Stepping into the shoes of a prudent investor, it’s imperative to avoid falling into yield traps: companies offering high yields but lacking the financial backing to sustain them. Enter the analysis of a company’s overall health, a task made easier by assessing key metrics.

Cash as a percentage of total assets and payout ratios are key indicators of a company’s financial fortitude. In recent times, the top quartile of companies has seen a surge in cash reserves, an encouraging sign of their resilience. Moreover, evaluating the payout ratio provides insights into the sustainability of dividends. A company paying out more than it earns in the long run is walking on thin ice, whereas those with ratios in the 40-50% range are on relative solid ground.

Dividends in an Age of Inflation

Amid the specter of inflation, dividend strategies have shone brightly. Companies with robust dividend policies, characterized by stable cash flows, have weathered the storm far better than their growth-oriented counterparts. Inflation, while posing challenges to certain sectors, has not dampened the dividend-driven approach. In fact, historical data (monthly excess returns over the MSCI World Index for the last 45 + years) indicates that dividend-paying companies fare even better in high CPI environments, providing a reliable anchor for portfolios.

At the heart of the resilience of dividend-paying companies lies their ability to generate steady and predictable cash flows. These companies often operate in industries with stable demand for their products or services, which provides a buffer against the uncertainties associated with inflation. By virtue of their financial stability, they’re better positioned to maintain and perhaps even grow their dividend payouts, providing a reliable source of income for investors.

Historical data, tracked against the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reinforces the notion that dividend-paying companies can act as a reliable anchor for portfolios during inflationary periods. These companies tend to exhibit a degree of insulation from the market volatility often associated with rising prices. By consistently delivering returns through dividends, they offer investors a source of stability in an otherwise uncertain economic environment.

Methodology Matters

In the realm of Dividend ETFs, the choices are vast, and not all ETFs are created equal. Each comes with its unique methodology, impacting performance. Factors such as weighting methodology, sector caps, and company quality screenings play pivotal roles in the outcome. This underscores the importance of understanding the underlying strategy before investing. Continue Reading…

Why would anyone own bonds now?

 

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub 

“Many investors have been saying for years that rates can only go up from here, rates can only go one direction, rates will eventually go up. Will they?” – My Own Advisor, September 2021.

My, how things can and do change.

In today’s post, I look back at what I wrote in September 2021 to determine if I still feel that way for our portfolio.

Why would anyone own bonds now?

Why own bonds?

For years, decades, generations in fact, bonds have made sense for a diversified, balanced portfolio.

The main reason is this: bonds can reduce volatility due to their low or negative correlation with stocks. The more that investors learn about diversification, the more likely they are to add bonds to their portfolios.

That said, they don’t always make sense for everyone, all the time, always.

I’ll take a page from someone who was much smarter than I am on this subject:

Ben Graham on 100% stocks and cash

Ben Graham, on stocks, bonds and cash. Source: The Intelligent Investor.

Another key takeaway from this specific chapter of The Intelligent Investor is the 75/25 rule. This implies more conservative investors that don’t meet Ben Graham’s criteria above could consider splitting your portfolio between 75% stocks and 25% bonds. This specific split allows an investor to capture some upside by investing in mostly stocks while also protecting your investments with bonds.

Because stocks offer more potential upside, there is higher risk. Bonds offer more stability, so they come with lower returns than stocks in the long run.

As a DIY investor, this just makes so much sense since I’ve seen this playout in my/our own portfolio when it comes to our 15+ years of DIY investment returns. Our long-term returns exceed the returns I would have had with any balanced 60/40 stock/bond portfolio over the same period.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a 60/40 balanced portfolio held over decades, of course.

From Russell Investments earlier this year:

“Fixed income has historically been considered the ballast in a portfolio, offering stability and diversification against equity market fluctuations. Over the last 40 years, a balanced portfolio of 60% Canadian equities and 40% Canadian bonds would have returned 8.5% annualized with standard deviation of 9.3%. While a portfolio consisting solely of fixed income would have had lower return with lower risk, a portfolio consisting solely of equities would have had only slightly higher return but substantially higher risk.”

Source: https://russellinvestments.com/ca/blog/the-60-40-portfolio

1/1983 – 12/2022 Canada Equities Canada Bonds Balanced Portfolio 
Annualized Return 8.8% 7.2%  8.5%
Annualized Volatility 14.4% 5.3%  9.3%

Pretty darn good from 60/40.

So, while I continue to believe the main role of bonds in your portfolio is essentially safety – not investment returns – we can see above that bonds when mixed with stocks can be enablers/stabilizers and deliver meaningful returns over long investment periods as well.

As Andrew Hallam, Millionaire Teacher has so kindly put it over the years, including some moments on this site to me:

… when stocks fall hard, bonds act like parachutes for your portfolio. Bonds might not always rise when the equity markets drop. But broad bond market indexes don’t crash like stocks do …

Is that enough to own bonds in your portfolio?

Maybe.

Here are a few reasons to own bonds, in no particular order: Continue Reading…

Playing Defence on the Gaza conflict with the All-Weather Portfolio

By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

There is no avoiding the crisis and tragedy of the Israel-Hamas war. While nothing can begin to match the humanitarian concerns, we will address the financial, economic and global risks. Preparing for war is preparing for risk and uncertainty whether that be a humanitarian crisis or a financial calamity. The risks and events can commingle and merge together as well. In the past this blog has looked at the global war on COVID-19, the invasion of and ongoing war in Ukraine and now the war in the Middle East. To no surprise the risk management answers are quite similar.

It was a week Saturday that we woke up to the tragedy in Israel. A declaration of war soon followed. The potential of escalation and economic shocks is real. Of course we pray for the most peaceful outcome as is possible. As of this writing, that peace appears to be a distant hope.

While stock markets mostly took the events in stride, risk-off assets certainly did respond. Gold, bonds and energy moved higher.

The memory of oil shocks

A headline on Seeking Alpha offered that – Oil prices rise as investors fear a wider war with Israel’s advance into Gaza. From that post …

Energy stocks enjoyed their best week since June, with the S&P 500 Energy Index +4.5%, as oil prices surged ahead of Israel’s imminent advance into Gaza that could cause violence to spill over into other parts of the Middle East, potentially causing disruptions to oil production and shipments.

And this is surprising, from that same Seeking Alpha post …

A less publicized factor also affected oil prices: The Biden administration for the first time began enforcing Russian oil sanctions announced last year, penalizing two tankers for carrying Russian crude oil above the West’s $60/bbl price cap.

Oil is up over 7%, while gold is up 5.5% over the last several days. Don’t forget to rebalance when risk-off assets move in violent fashion. We can see how gold moved up considerably in 2020 with the invasion of Ukraine. It then settled into a range as the world ‘got used’ to the ongoing conflict. Gold price …

Of course, no one knows how events in the Middle East will evolve, and how far the conflict might spread around the globe. Let’s not forget that it was the oil shock that ignited the stagflation period of the 1970’s.

The Purpose Real Asset ETF PRA/TSX was up 2.5% over the week ended October 13.

Even bonds caught a bid as a defensive asset with the Canadian bond market (XBB/TSX) up 1.6% and longer term U.S. treasuries up 2.5%.

Defense stocks for defense

And it should be no surprise that defense stocks are on the move as the world powers militarize to face the mounting threats in the Middle East, Europe and Asia. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC/NYSE) is up over 14% over the last several days and Raytheon (RTX/NYSE) is up over 6%. We hold Raytheon in one account. It was a spin-off from United Technologies. Continue Reading…

5 Ways to Increase the Value of your Business before Selling

If you want to pass along your highly valuable company to a new owner, here are five ways to increase the value of your business before selling.

Image Adobe/PeopleImages.com

By Dan Coconate

Special to Financial Independence Hub

As retirement looms on the horizon, you are probably thinking about taking the next steps in your journey. If you are a business owner, one of these steps may include selling your business. When placing your business on the market, it is important to protect your financial well-being by getting the highest sale price possible. Here are five ways to increase the value of your business before selling.

Strengthen your Financial Records

Your financial records are the heart of your business. Potential buyers will scrutinize them to gauge the health and potential of your enterprise. To increase the value of your business before selling, ensure your financial statements are in order, transparent, and show consistent growth. Sound financial statements will build trust and make your business a lucrative investment.

Build a Strong Management Team

A strong and cohesive management team is the backbone of any successful business, and a significant selling point for many potential buyers. These buyers often assess the depth and breadth of leadership skills present within the team. They need confidence that the business will continue to thrive and adapt in a dynamic market environment, especially if the original owner is no longer at the helm. Continue Reading…

Canadian Financial Summit starts online October 18

https://canadianfinancialsummit.com

 

The annual Canadian Financial Summit kicks on online tomorrow: Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023.

The all-virtual summit, now in its 7th year, features more than 35 speakers, including Yours Truly, as well as several other financial commentators pictured to the left: Ellen Roseman, Rob Carrick, Preet Banerjee, Ed Rempel, Lisa Hannam and many more.

Other familiar names that will be familiar to Hub readers include Dale Roberts, Jason Heath, Robb Engen, Kornel Szrejber and Barry Choi.

Here are some of the topics:

  • How to plan your own retirement at any age
  • How to save money on taxes by optimizing your RRSP to RRIF transition
  • Get Into Your First House with the New FHSA (First Time Home Savings Account)
  • Retirement Decumulation Strategies
  • Adjusting to the World of High Interest Rates
  • Using Annuities and Equities to Create a Retirement Paycheque
  • The Pension Paradox: Lump Sum vs Cash for Life
  • Plan your personalized combination of a DIY portfolio alongside an annuity for a customized stream of retirement asset growth + monthly income.
  • What Canadian real estate investments looks like in 2023
  • How to deal with inflation on your bills and in your investment portfolio
  • The best Canadian personal finance books of all time! (That’s my topic).
  • When to take your OAS and CPP
  • Travel for free with Canada’s loyalty rewards programs

The founder of the Summit is Kyle Prevost (pictured right), who is also a writer at Million Dollar Journey, and writes the weekly MoneySense Making Sense of the Markets column, among other things.

Kyle also is the creator of a multi-media course titled 4 Steps to a Worry-Free Retirement, which I’ll be featuring in my next MoneySense Retired Money column.

The All-Access pass costs $89 if you act quickly enough. Plus, there’s a no questions asked money-back guarantee for those who change their mind.
Prevost will be sending email updates most of the week. Here’s what Monday’s said (in part):