Debt & Frugality

As Didi says in the novel (Findependence Day), “There’s no point climbing the Tower of Wealth when you’re still mired in the basement of debt.” If you owe credit-card debt still charging an usurous 20% per annum, forget about building wealth: focus on eliminating that debt. And once done, focus on paying off your mortgage. As Theo says in the novel, “The foundation of financial independence is a paid-for house.”

Expect strong single-digit returns in possible soft landing: Franklin Templeton’s 2024 Global Investment Outlook

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Investors can expect strong positive single-digit returns for the ten years between 2024 and 2034, portfolio managers for Franklin Templeton Investments told advisors on Thursday.

Ian Riach

Speaking at the 2024 Global Investment Outlook in Toronto, portfolio manager Ian Riach said Canadian equities will have expected returns in C$ of 7.2%, a tad below the 7.4% of U.S. equities and 8.6% for both EAFE and Emerging Markets and 8.1% for China. Riach is Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and CIO of Fiduciary Trust Canada.

Fixed-income returns are expected to be in the low single digits: 3.9% for Government of Canada bonds, 6% for investment-grade Canadian bonds and 4.8% for  hedged global bonds, again all in C$. See above chart for the Volatility of each of these asset classes, as well as the past 20-year annualized returns for each. From my read of the chart, expected returns of North American equities the next decade are slightly below past 20-year annualized returns but EAFE and Emerging Markets expected returns are slightly higher, with the exception of China.

Fixed-income investors who were dismayed by bond returns in 2022 will no doubt be relieved to see expected future returns of Canadian bonds and global bonds are higher than in the past 20 years. “Expected returns for fixed income have become more attractive; recent volatility [is] expected to subside​,” Riach said in the presentation provided to attendees.

Capital markets expectations (CME) are used to set Strategic Asset Allocation, which forms the basis of Franklin Templeton’s long-term strategic mix for portfolios and funds, the document explains: “Portfolio managers then tactically adjust.”

“This year CMEs are generally higher than last year. Primarily due to higher cash and bond yields as a starting point,” the document says.

Global equity returns are expected to revert to longer- term averages and outperform bonds​,  EAFE equities “look attractive,” and Emerging market equities are expected to outperform developed market equities​, albeit with more volatility.

Central banks may have to tolerate higher inflation, but are determined to at least get it closer to target in the short-run.  The Bank of Canada does have some room to tolerate a higher rate as its target is more flexible at 1%-3%.  This compares to the Fed’s hard-wired 2%.  Thus, rates in the US may stay higher for longer to bring inflation down to target

Risks of Recession

Riach described three major broad portfolio themes. The first is that Recession risks are moderating but “reasons for caution remain.” The second is that on interest rates, central banks have reached “Peak policy, but expect higher rates for longer.” The third is that “Among the risks, opportunities exist.” Addressing the narrow market of the top ten stocks in the S&P500 (the Magnificent 7 Big Tech stocks plus United Health, Berkshire Hathaway and ExxonMobi), market breadth should broaden to the rest of the market.

For portfolio positioning, Riach suggested selectively adding to Equities, overweighting U.S. and Emerging markets equities, underweighting Canada and Europe equities, and for Fixed Income,”trimming duration and prefer higher quality corporates.” In short, “a diversified and dynamic approach [is] the most likely path to stable returns.”

Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments (part of Franklin Templeton) gave a presentation titled “Anatomy of a Recession.” A recession always starts as a “soft landing,” as the slide below illustrates.  “We’re not out of danger. Leading indicators point to Recession,” he said, “The base case is Recession.” While the S&P500 consensus is for earnings growth, the U.S. GDP is expected to worsen.

 

 

He described himself  not as a permabear but a permabull, at least until a year ago. If as he expects there’s a “soft landing” with stocks possibly correcting by 15 to 20% in 2024 Schulze would view that as an opportunity to add to U.S.  equities in preparation for the next secular bull market.

One of the catalysts will be A.I., not just for the Magnificent 7 but also for the S&P500 laggards. As the chart below illustrates, economic growth often holds up well leading into a recession, with a rapid decline coming only just before the onset of a recession.  Continue Reading…

The Power of Low-Fee Core Bond ETFs in your Investment Portfolio

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By Alizay Fatema, Associate Portfolio Manager, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

The latest economic data unveils a captivating narrative of a strong and resilient economy in both Canada and the U.S. The current inflation stickiness and robust job market numbers make a solid case for the central banks in both countries to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Towards the end of September 2023, markets basked in record-high yields. However, earlier this month, based on the current situation in the Middle East, bond yields fell owing to an increase in demand for safer assets and caused longer-term bond prices to surge.  U.S. consumer prices remained elevated for the month of September and a pullback in demand for a treasury auction pushed longer-term yields higher again, resulting in 10-yr U.S Treasury yields touching their highest point since 2007. On the contrary, the recent CPI printed lower than expectations in Canada, yet the yields remain high as hot economic data continues to build pressure south of the border.

Source: Bloomberg

Given the current two-decade-high interest rates, yields on Aggregate Bond ETFs have surpassed 5%, making them an interesting avenue for fixed-income investors. Before we dive in further, let’s discuss some aggregate bond ETFs in detail along with their benefits.

Aggregate Bond ETFs as the Core of your Investment Strategy

Aggregate bond ETFs are exchange traded funds that aim to track performance of a diversified portfolio of bonds. These ETFs are referred to as core because it reflects their status as a foundational building block of a well-rounded investment portfolio. These ETFs can help investors achieve diversification, steady income & stability within their investment portfolios. BMO currently offers two Aggregate Bond ETFs:

  • BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZAG) aims to replicate the performance of the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index. This ETF primarily invests in a Canadian investment-grade fixed income securities consisting of Federal, Provincial and Corporate bonds, with a term to maturity greater than one year.
  • BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZUAG) tracks the performance of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. It invests in U.S. investment-grade bonds such as U.S. treasury bonds, government-related bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset backed securities with a term to maturity greater than one year. ZUAG is also offered as hedged to CAD (ZUAG.F) and in USD (ZUAG.U).

Source: BMO Asset Management.

These aggregate bond ETFs have proven to be an extremely viable investment solution owing to their key features:

  • The Symphony of Diversification: Aggregate Bond ETFs provide exposure to a broad spectrum of bond market offering diversification across the curve, various sectors and segments, maturities, issuers, and credit qualities; making them resilient for any market environment.

For example, in the current high-interest rate environment, exposure to short duration bonds might provide some down-side protection. On the other hand, if central banks start cutting rates, then longer duration can provide some upside potential.

Aggregate Bond ETFs can also be considered an equity market hedge. Given the inverse correlation between equities and bonds, they can provide a cushion against market turbulence and can potentially outperform stocks during selloffs.

  • Harnessing Cost Efficiency through Lower Fees: These ETFs are passively managed with the aim to track performance of the aforesaid indices. Their expense ratios are lower as compared to some actively managed funds, thereby reducing overall investment costs and improving net returns for investors. BMO is currently charging a Management Expense Ratio of 0.09% for both ZAG & ZUAG.  
  • Liquidity & Ease of Trading: Like all other ETFs, ZAG & ZUAG are traded on stock exchanges, enabling investors to easily buy and sell shares throughout the trading day, allowing them to see real-time prices. The bid-ask spreads on these products are lower in contrast with the underlying bonds which enhances their liquidity compared to traditional bonds, making them a cost-effective way to attain the exposure to the aggregate bond market.
  • Navigating Risk Management through High Credit Quality: Aggregate Bond ETFs are perceived as a stable and safer investment option as they provide exposure to investment-grade bonds, which are considered to have lower risk as opposed to high-yield or junk bonds. In the current rising interest rate environment, the credit quality & relative stability of the investment grade bonds make them an appealing choice for investors seeking to minimize risk & preserve capital.

Combined with the key features mentioned above, these Aggregate Bond ETFs provide investors with a low-cost core in any investment portfolio. They distribute monthly interest payments, providing a steady stream of income. These ETFs emphasize on preservation of capital and provide transparency and visibility into the funds’ composition and their underlying assets. Continue Reading…

Interview with Harvest ETFs CEO Michael Kovacs on how Retirees can generate income in volatile markets

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The following is an edited transcript of an interview with Michael Kovacs, CEO of Harvest ETFs, conducted by Financial Independence Hub CFO Jonathan Chevreau.

Jon Chevreau (JC)

Thanks for taking the time today, Michael. We all know that 2022 was a pretty bad year as markets were impacted by higher interest rates. That turbulence bled into much of 2023, although the last few weeks have seemed much rosier.

How do you respond to unitholders of funds who are currently down year over year? Does your covered call writing protect retirees?

Michael Kovacs

Michael Kovacs (MK)

Thanks for having me, Jon. It is important to remember that we offer equity income funds. That means that you have to look at the total return of the product, which includes the price of the ETF and its accumulating distributions.

Yes, there has been turbulence in 2022 and through much of 2023. However, over that period, products like the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income Fund (HHL) have paid consistent distributions.

Let’s look at the Harvest Diversified Monthly Income ETF (HDIF). In terms of actual returns, this ETF is down nearly double-digit percentage-wise in the year-over-year period (as of early November). But, when you look at the distributions paid over that same period, HDIF has delivered positive cashflow for its unitholders, which reduces the decline by more than half.

JC

Are you saying that between the covered calls, the distribution and the leverage plus the underlying equity income, that a retiree could expect annual yields as high as 10% or 12% or higher?

MK

Yes. Yields are anywhere from 1.5% to 3%, depending on the equity category. Then you have option writing. We can go right up to 33% on any of those portfolios, which generates additional yield. So, to be able to generate 9-10% is very achievable. And we’ve been able to do that consistently for a quite a few years now.

Jon Chevreau

JC

What is your view on the current interest rate climate? Have we reached a top? If so, when will they start to come down?

MK

Many of us remember the high interest rates of the 1980s, especially some of your readers who were trying to obtain their first mortgages. We have experienced a big jump in interest rates over the past two years. However, we believe that we have probably seen the top for rates for now. Or, if we haven’t, we are very close to the top. That means there are going to be some great opportunities in fixed-income markets. The next move for interest rates may be down by mid-to-late 2024.

That said, there are still great opportunities that will benefit equities and bonds in the current climate. Our first launch in the Bond area is the Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (HPYT). We’ve launched with a high current yield. We are targeting long treasury bonds in this fund. This is about generating a high level of income while owning a very good credit-worthy security like a U.S. Treasury. So, if rates start declining next year, it is a great time to be holding fixed income.

JC

Findependence Hub readers tend to be retirees who want steady cash flow. What is Harvest’s view of cash flow for retirees?

MK

I think cash flow for retirees is essential. Once your employment income has gone, you must depend on your investments, your pensions, your CPP, and so on. The recent increases in interest rates have been good for retirees in the short term. Higher rates allow retirees to keep shorter-term cash and generate a safe yield of 5% or more.

Our longer-term equity products aim to have that heavy bias toward equities. For example, the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL) is typically written at about 25-28% average, with the other 70% or so fully exposed to health care stocks. The covered call option writing strategy allows us to generate a high level of income.

Cash flow is the basis behind our name: Harvest. People have spent decades building up capital, sowing the seeds. Our products allow them to harvest the fruits of their life-long labour.

We believe our equity-income and fixed-income products are a fantastic way to do that. If we can help you preserve capital and generate consistent income, we are doing our job.

JC

There is also interest among investors in asset allocation ETFs. Is HDIF essentially your answer to that demand?

MK

You’re correct. Some people prefer to allocate to specific funds, but the idea behind HDIF is to allocate to the best of Harvest’s top products that generate cash flow. In the case of HDIF, you do have a leverage component. You are increasing the yield but at the same time, you do increase your risk as well. Continue Reading…

15 Favorite Frugal Living Tips for Financial Independence

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Image by Pexels: Dany Kurniawan

To help you on your journey towards financial independence, we’ve gathered 15 frugal living tips from financial advisors, founders, and other professionals.

From delaying big-ticket purchases, to asking for deals to save money, these experts share their best practices for frugality and financial independence.

  • Delay Big-Ticket Purchases 
  • Master Budgeting and Tracking Spending
  • Align Budget with Personal Values
  • Plan Meals to Control Food Budget
  • Distinguish Between Needs and Wants
  • Prepare Lunch at Home for Savings
  • Leverage “Stoozing” for Mortgage Savings
  • Track Expenses for Financial Insight
  • Eliminate Unnecessary Subscriptions
  • Use Technology for Financial Management
  • Prioritize Spending with Budget Tracking
  • Cut Expenses from Seldom-Used Subscriptions
  • Invest in Experiences, Not Impulse Buys
  • Wait a Month Before Impulse Buying
  • Ask for Deals to Save Money

Delay Big-Ticket Purchases 

When climbing the pay ladder, I purposefully delayed purchasing big-ticket items such as a newer or more expensive home, car, or luxury item. When I review my spending in detail, I’ve found it typically isn’t an $8 latte (or several of them) that puts me over the discretionary-spending edge, but rather something like a luxury handbag that I felt I deserved at the time, yet doesn’t bring me sustained happiness. 

That is to say, in hindsight, it would feel better to see my investment portfolio increase than to have a closet of designer wares. It’s important to build a budget for yourself, but equally or more important, to reconcile your past spending and decide whether to make an adjustment to the budget or your spending to be more accurate moving forward. — Morgan Jarod, Financial Advisor, Royal Private Wealth

Master Budgeting and Tracking Spending

There are many clever ways to cut expenses or generate extra income, but there is no replacement for the discipline of budgeting. A budget is the daily application of your long-term goals. It serves as a compass for your financial journey, making sure you are consistently moving towards your destination. 

There are two parts to every great budget: planning and tracking. First, you need to write out a plan for how you are going to spend every dollar of income you will earn in a given month. Then, you need to track your spending to ensure you are following your plan.

It would amaze most people at how much progress they can make toward their financial goals by simply using a budget to align their spending with their goals.

Luckily, becoming a master budgeter is easier today than it has ever been thanks to several budgeting apps that make the process simple and convenient.

When meeting with someone serious about their financial goals, the first recommendation is almost always a budget. — Ty Johnson, Financial Planner, Peak Financial Management

Align Budget with Personal Values

Review your budget so that it aligns with your values, not what society tells you to value. Many of us get trapped in consumerism and in looking the part. Society tells us that, in order to prove that you are wealthy, you must have an expensive car, home, and wardrobe.

What happens if you value none of those things? You spend more money than necessary, proving you have money. Look at your expenses. Do they truly align with what you care about? If they don’t, change it and be free. — Tremaine Wills, MBA, CFEI, Financial Planner | Investment Advisor, Mind Over Money

Plan Meals to Control Food Budget

Plan your meals for the week on the weekend before. Make your grocery list from your established menu. This habit keeps you from buying groceries you don’t need and helps avoid the late-afternoon query, “What should I make for dinner tonight?” that often ends up with something quick and less healthy, or convenient but more expensive. 

Additionally, planning out your menu helps maintain variety. In our home, we have an outline we tend to follow: Sunday’s meal has pork; Monday tends to be a hearty soup or salad; Tuesday is “Breakfast for dinner” (egg bake, blueberry crepes, etc.); Wednesday is a chicken dish; Thursday’s dinner has fish or sausage as a base ingredient; Friday is Pizza night (make yourself or order out), and Saturday is a beef dish. — Keith Piscitello, Certified Financial Planner, S2 Wealth Planning

Distinguish between Needs and Wants

Frugality is about mindset and intentionality more than deprivation. One of the most impactful practices for me has been to shift my mindset around needs versus wants. It’s easy to fall into the trap of feeling like we “need” the latest technology, furniture, clothes, cars, etc. But most of these are simply wants. Focusing on true needs — food, shelter, basic clothing, transportation to work — frees up a lot of money.

I ask myself, “Do I really need this, or just want it? Will this purchase add value and enjoyment to my life, or am I buying it just to have it?” Distinguishing needs from wants has allowed me to dramatically cut discretionary spending. I buy very few material items now, and focus my time and money on experiences, relationships, and personal growth. — Brian Meiggs, Founder, My Millennial Guide

Prepare Lunch at Home for Savings

Wherever possible, prep your lunch at home if you’re eating at the office or somewhere other than your home. Over the course of a month, the savings really stack up! This could be as easy as batch-cooking at the weekends, ready for the week, or just making a homemade sandwich in the morning. — Jordan White, Financial Planner, A Money Thing Happened

Leverage “Stoozing” for Mortgage Savings

In financial strategies, one unique money-saving hack I’ve employed is using an offset mortgage combined with savings. This approach, popularly known in England as “Stoozing,” can significantly reduce monthly mortgage payments. 

Stoozing involves utilizing the funds from 0%-interest credit-card offers. Instead of spending this money, one deposits it into a bank account linked to an offset mortgage. This approach effectively reduces the mortgage balance temporarily, leading to significant savings on mortgage interest. 

As the 0% period on the credit card nears its end, the “stoozer” then pays off the credit card using the deposited funds, having benefited from reduced mortgage costs in the interim. At one point, I had over £100,000 on credit cards, but this was sitting in my bank account, significantly reducing the interest payments on my mortgage. It accelerated my financial independence by at least 10 years. — Shane McEvoy, MD, Flycast Media

Track Expenses for Financial Insight

As a wealth-management specialist, one frugal-living tip I recommend to new clients is to track and record all your expenses. While this may seem time-consuming, it’s a great way to gain insight into where you are spending your money and how much you’re actually saving each month. 

Making sure you can see exactly where your money goes will help keep it in check and prevent impulse purchases that add up quickly. This is especially important when trying to reach financial independence because every dollar saved means more freedom for the future. — Adam Fayed, CEO, AdamFayed.com

Eliminate Unnecessary Subscriptions

Getting rid of subscriptions and simplifying my monthly budget has played a significant role in speeding up my journey towards financial independence.

Subscriptions might seem harmless, but the costs can really sneak up on you if you’re not careful. For years, I was paying over $100 a month for cable. I also was spending $50 on various streaming services, had an expensive gym membership, and would occasionally try services like meal delivery kits. And I hadn’t negotiated my Internet or phone bills in years.

One day, I realized I was spending well over $350 per month on these services, some of which I wasn’t using. I cut cable out completely, got a cheaper phone plan, and moved to a more affordable gym near me. I also scrapped the meal delivery kits and just cook myself now. This saves me $200+ a month easily, and it hasn’t impacted my quality of life.

I suggest other people take a look at their monthly spending to find sneaky recurring charges they can trim quickly. — Tom Blake, Founder, This Online World Continue Reading…

Retired Money: What is Infinite Banking and should I consider it in Retirement?

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Image via MoneySense.ca: karlyukav on Freepik

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a topic I cheerfully admit I’d never heard of until the editors drew it to my attention: Infinite Banking (IB). Not to toot my own horn, but that’s unusual, as I have been writing about personal finance for the better part of three decades.

In any case, you can find the full MoneySense column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Infinite banking in Canada: Should you borrow from your life insurance policy?

According to a  useful primer in Policy Advisor, Infinite banking is “a concept that suggests you can use your whole life insurance policy to ‘be your own bank.’ “ It was created in the 1980s by American economist R. Nelson Nash, who introduced the idea in his book, ‘Becoming Your Own Banker.’ He founded IBC (Infinite Banking Concept) in the U.S. and eventually it migrated to Canada.

One of the sources cited in the column evinced some skepticism when he said of Infinite Banking (IB for short): “those who have sipped rather than chugged the IB Kool-Aid say it’s a strategy that may be too complex to be marketed on a mass scale.”

If you’re not familiar with life insurance, Infinite Banking does seem a bit arcane. Rather than put your money in a traditional bank – which until the last year or so paid next to nothing in interest on accounts – you would invest in a Whole Life or Universal Life insurance product, either of which provides some “cash value” from the investment portion of those policies. Then if you want to borrow money, instead of paying hefty interest payments to a bank, you borrow against your life insurance policy.

Watch this YouTube video primer

Those new to Infinite Banking should definitely look at a YouTube primer made by Philip Setter, CEO of Calgary-based Affinity Life (Affinitylife.ca). There he readily concedes that much of the marketing hype is to portray Infinite Banking as some kind of “massive secret for the wealthy,” which essentially amounts to buying a whole life insurance policy and borrowing against it. In the video he calls out some of the conspiracy-mongering that seems to be attached to infinite banking, including the primary message from some promoters that traditional banks and governments are out to rip off the average consumer.  Continue Reading…