By Shiraz Ahmed, Raymond James Ltd.
Special to the Financial Independence Hub
Until recently young investors were not terribly concerned with inflation. Why should they have been? It was so low for such a long time that we could predict with pretty good accuracy what was around the corner, at least, in terms of the cost of living. But those days are long gone.
Simply speaking, inflation can be defined as the general increase in prices for those staple ingredients of daily life. Food. Gas. Housing. What have you. And as those prices rise the value of a purchasing dollar falls. When these things are rising at 1% a year, or even less, investors can plan and strategize accordingly. But when inflation is rising quickly, and with no end in sight, that is very different and this is where we find ourselves today.
Someone with hundreds of thousands of dollars to invest, but who must wrestle with mortgage payments that suddenly double, is into an entirely new area. It happened back in the early 1980s when mortgage rates went as high as 21%. Many people lost their homes. But even rates like that pale in comparison to historical examples of hyperinflation.
In the 1920s, the decade known as The Roaring Twenties, the stock market rose to heights never seen before and for investors it was seen as a gravy train with no end in sight. But that was not the case in Germany where a fledgling government – the Weimer Republic – was desperately trying to bring the country out of its disastrous defeat in World War I. Inflation in Weimer Germany rose so quickly that the price of your dinner could increase in the time it took to eat it!
Consider that a loaf of bread in Berlin that cost 160 German marks at the end of 1922 cost 200 million marks one year later. By the end of 1923 one U.S. dollar was worth more than four trillion German marks. The end result was that prices spiralled out of control and anyone with savings or fixed incomes lost everything they had. That in no small way paved the way for Adolf Hitler and the Nazis. Let us also not forget that the gravy train of the Roaring Twenties eventually culminated in the stock market crash of 1929 which led to the Great Depression.