Debt & Frugality

As Didi says in the novel (Findependence Day), “There’s no point climbing the Tower of Wealth when you’re still mired in the basement of debt.” If you owe credit-card debt still charging an usurous 20% per annum, forget about building wealth: focus on eliminating that debt. And once done, focus on paying off your mortgage. As Theo says in the novel, “The foundation of financial independence is a paid-for house.”

How the USMCA affects Canadian homebuyers

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By Jordan Lavin, Ratehub.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Goodbye NAFTA, hello US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The new trade deal with our neighbours to the south will have wide-reaching effects across all areas of our economy, and housing is no exception. While the agreement is said to be good for our economy overall, it’s not necessarily good news for your ability to afford a home.

What is the USMCA?

Canada recently reached an agreement with the United States and Mexico to replace NAFTA, the decades-old trade agreement that has stood since it was signed by Brian Mulroney, Bill Clinton and Carlos Salinas de Gortari.

The new agreement looks much like the old one, with some changes. Key differences include changes to the way the three countries approach auto manufacturing, fewer restrictions on trade of dairy products, and stronger measures against counterfeiting and media piracy. Like NAFTA, the USMCA makes it possible for the three countries to exchange goods without barriers.

For now, the US, Mexico and Canada will continue trading under the rules of NAFTA. The USMCA will come into effect once it’s ratified by its members, a process that could take months. In the United States, congress won’t vote on ratification until some time next year due to that county’s mid-term elections. Here in Canada, the looming Federal election means that if the USMCA isn’t made official by June, it could be delayed until 2020.

How does this affect Canadian housing?

If you’re wondering how having access to American milk at your local Superstore can possibly affect how much mortgage you can afford, you’re not alone. The implications for home affordability are driven by the market’s reaction to the uncertainty of the negotiation period, the removal of uncertainty brought by a signed agreement, and the actual economic growth that’s expected to occur because of the USMCA once it’s in force.

When the Trump administration demanded to renegotiate “the worst trade deal” ever, the market got spooked. As the trade war intensified, the US threatened to (and did) impose significant tariffs on imports from Canada. With repeated threats from our largest trading partner, there was a real chance that the Canadian economy could be jeopardized. Even though our economy was growing during that time, the Bank of Canada (BoC) was reluctant to raise interest rates, which it would normally do in that situation. Continue Reading…

Bank of Canada: As expected, Poloz still the Number Two hawk

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By Jeff Weniger, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

There was little surprise in the October 24 decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC ) to raise its overnight interest rate a quarter point to 1.75%. There hadn’t been a sell-side strategist on Bay Street prognosticating anything but that action. BoC governor Stephen Poloz’s stop-start hiking program reinforces what we have been saying for some time: even with this tepid pace of interest rate increases, Canada is still Number Two in the “hawkishness” rankings of developed market central banks.

More important than the actual rate move is Poloz’s signaling, especially given NAFTA’s recent reconfiguration into the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and October’s generalized stock market malaise.

With the NAFTA overhang quasi-resolved, and the realization out west that shipping LNG to East Asia is not only politically palpable but a matter of national security, Poloz and the Canadian public finally have some good economic news in what has been a tough year for the country.

For an idea of the BoC’s relative position, consider the actions taken (or not taken) by several other major central banks of late. After hiking to 0.75% in August, the Bank of England appears to have its hands tied. It is hard to see how the Brits can make any moves between now and March 2019, the deadline for the to-be-determined “soft” or “hard” Brexit. Even if Brexit goes well, the BoE would seemingly need to take a cautious approach next spring and summer, meaning GBP rates will likely be a full 100 bps or more south of CAD’s throughout 2019.

The European Central Bank is also in no hurry to do much regarding interest rates. Given the VIX’s recent spike to 231amid China slowdown fears and Italian budget risk, any forecasts of a one-off rate hike by the ECB next year must be called into question. That is truer now than at any time in the last year or so, as Italian bonds maturing in 10 years have gapped up to 3.60%, a striking 320 bps spread over 10-year German bunds (0.40%).

The fear in southern Europe is of a “doom loop.” In this scenario, Italian banks, which are heavy owners of Italy’s sovereign debt, see the country’s yields rise, which weakens the banks’ capital base. That, in turn, sends government bond rates higher. A dog chasing its tail.

Of interest to the BoC, the Toronto housing market has somehow managed to pull off the sweet-spot slowdown, at least for now. This has surprised us, given the rarity of asymptotic price surges giving way to post-peak gentle, sideways slopes. The Teranet National Home Price Index for Toronto has managed to curve ever so slightly downward since summer 2017, witnessing total price depreciation of just 3.8% from the peak to September 2018.

If Street consensus is correct, the BoC will bring the policy rate to 2.25% or 2.50% at the end of 2019. There are some observers out there with calls for 2.75% or 2.00% on both sides of the bell curve. In order to have the confidence to hike three or four times, Poloz will want to see GTA home prices continue to click sideways with each of the Toronto Real Estate Board’s monthly reports. And that means no big swoons in activity like in Vancouver, where buyers and sellers are engaged in a staring contest that is becoming disconcerting.

Aggressive BoC rhetoric

In the Monetary Policy Report, the central bank went heavy on USMCA references, opening with the trade deal and then coming back to it again just a couple of paragraphs later. They were keen to make mention of British Columbia’s natural gas pipeline announcement as a one-two punch for justifying a confident onslaught of 2% on the overnight rate.

We are focusing less on the BoC’s forecast of around 2% CPI inflation from now to 2020 and more on the bank’s assertion that the economy is operating “at capacity.” This is critical. The U.S. still has some room to challenge its capacity utilization precedent, set just short of 80 on the eve of the 2015–2016 China scare. But for all intents and purposes, American capacity utilization at 78 is a rounding error compared to its limit (the 80 area).

If Poloz believes Canada is “at capacity,” and it looks to us like the U.S. is there too, then this is the stuff of inflation scares. Of the forecasting outliers (those penciling in 2.0% or 2.75% for year-end 2019), we think the latter camp has a better chance of being proven correct, on account of our thesis that the global trade war concept is overblown and “priced in.”

Items to watch, next 6 to 12 months

While we would be foolish to not focus on “classic” central banking metrics such as inflation and employment a few other idiosyncratic issues are also critical:
Continue Reading…

Questrade pushes envelope on lower fees with Questwealth Portfolios

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Questrade’s TV commercials put pressure on fees, as do its new Questwealth Portfolios

As my latest MoneySense Retired Money column explained when it was published early Saturday morning, Questrade Inc., the leading independent Canadian online brokerage, is laying down the gauntlet on fees. You can find the full story by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Questrade’s new robo advisor service showcases rockbottom fees.

For consumers, it’s good news that the new iteration of Questrade’s Portfolio IQ robo adviser service — rebranded Questwealth Portfolios — pushes fees down to around the level of the new Vanguard Asset Allocation ETFs.

That’s somewhere between 0.20% and 0.25%, which is roughly half of what most other robo services charge, and about a tenth of what most retail mutual funds charge.

Questrade Wealth Management was one of three early entrants to the Canadian robo advisor space in 2014 (along with NestWealth.com and Wealthsimple). Until now, its robo service was called Portfolio IQ (PIQ henceforth) but the latter has been rebranded, relaunched and indeed replaced as of Saturday under the new trademarked name Questwealth Portfolios. Questwealth replaces PIQ accounts, according to a press release issued on Nov. 3.

The management fee is 0.25% for Questwealth Portfolios between $1,000 and $99,999, dropping to a very competitive 0.20% for $100,000 or more. These fees are significantly lower than for PIQ, which charged 0.7% under $100,000, 0.6% between $100,000 and $249,000, 0.5% up to $500,000, 0.4% up to $1 million and 0.35% for accounts of a million dollars or more. The average asset-weighted PIQ fee was 0.62%, versus 0.23% for Questwealth Portfolios, lower by a whopping 63%.

For consumers it’s good news that Questrade is slashing its own fees and putting more pressure on the rest of the industry, which is evident from its edgy TV commercials. (With the launch it is releasing a new batch of these often-humorous ads. The screen shot at the top of this blog is from the earlier ads.

How Questwealth Portfolios compare to other Robo services

As I note in the MoneySense column it’s not hard to show how ETFs and robe-based portfolios of ETFs can undercut the notoriously high MERs of Canada’s mutual funds, so the real contest is how the Questwealth Portfolios stack up against the rest of the robo advisors (or indeed, against DIY ETF portfolios held at discount brokers like Questrade itself or any of its (mostly) bank-owned online brokerage arms. Continue Reading…

Could you become car-free?

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Billy and Akaisha on a Jak-a-Ran in Thailand

By Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It wasn’t a decision we took lightly.

In fact, Billy and I discussed the idea of becoming car-free for several years. There were good reasons to do it: no more maintenance and repair costs; no more fees for insurance, license plate renewal, or registration; no more fuel expense; and no more worry about storing the vehicle here in the States when we are traveling overseas for months or years at a time.

But there were also some obvious downsides. We wouldn’t have the freedom to come and go at a whim. And because we live in the American Southwest, where temperatures reach triple digits in the summer, we wondered how we’d manage to get around during the sun season.

Silly idea or feasible plan?

Most people we know couldn’t fathom the idea of giving up their vehicle and saw this new lifestyle choice as a hardship. Americans love their automobiles, and owning one is packaged as part of the American Dream. A look at the automobile and truck commercials today describe how we will be sexier, more popular, physically stronger, and obviously smarter if we purchase their brand of car.

As we’ve described on our Retire Early Lifestyle website, Billy and I live in an active adult community where we are within walking distance to stores, restaurants, and several different entertainment options. Most of what we need is near to us, and we appreciate the slower pace of life with all the rewards it brings. Many of our neighbors use a small scooter, golf cart, or bicycle to get around within a reasonable range. When we need to go somewhere farther, we trade services or pay cash to a neighbor or friend for their time. This is much cheaper than a taxi, more sociable, and we aren’t bogged down with worries about maintaining a vehicle. Both sides appreciate the trade, and our lives are enriched.

After almost two decades of world travel, we realized that the only place where we need to drive is in the States. Elsewhere, we take public transportation or hire a private driver. For the amount of time we live in the States, and for the amount of money that owning our own transport required, we finalized our decision to sell our vehicle.

The year was 2009.

What about you? 

Retirement takes many expressions and even if you could never see yourself as becoming completely free of car ownership, maybe you have toyed with the idea of keeping only one vehicle instead of two.

The following sites may help you with this transition: Continue Reading…

The (Renewed) Case for GICs

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**This is a sponsored post written by me [Robb Engen] on behalf of EQ Bank. However, as always, all opinions are my own.

A guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) is unlikely to spark an exciting dinner party conversation but when stock markets are reeling, like they were earlier this year, investors often seek safe havens to wait out the storm. Cash is king for those who don’t have the stomach to watch their portfolio plunge in value, and GICs at least offer the promise of a modest return.

Back in February 2009, when the global financial crisis had just about reached rock-bottom, 30-year-old me was scrambling to meet the RRSP deadline and bought a five-year GIC. It was a costly mistake in hindsight. The Toronto Stock Exchange surged ahead for the next five years, earning annual returns of 9.52 per cent, while my five-year GIC earned an average annual return of 2.75 per cent.

Instead of turning my $7,000 contribution into nearly $10,000, I only had $7,800 to show for my decision. At the time, though, I thought the GIC was a smart move because I had to make a quick decision on what to do with my contribution, and the stock market still looked downright nasty.

Why invest in GICs?

The truth is there’s nothing wrong with stashing your savings inside the comfort of a GIC. Here are four times when it makes good sense to put your money in GICs:

1.) When your entire portfolio is sitting in cash, waiting for “the right time” to get into the market

If you’re the type of investor who can’t ignore the doom-and-gloom economic headlines, and who’s convinced that a market meltdown is always imminent, maybe the stock market isn’t right for you.

Having your retirement savings constantly sitting in cash and earning nothing is like sitting on the fence and being paralyzed to move for fear of making the wrong decision at the wrong time.

A GIC ladder, which might involve purchasing equal amounts of one, two, three, four, and five-year terms, will maximize your risk-free returns and still give you the option of dipping your toes in the market each year when one of the terms comes due.

2.) When your investing strategy boils down to chasing last year’s winning stocks or mutual funds

If you’re the type of investor who’s constantly looking for the latest fad, you might be falling victim to the behaviour gap – the difference between investment returns and investor returns.

Consider that, according to DALBAR, from 1986 to 2016 the S&P 500 Index averaged 10.16   a year, but the average equity fund investor earned just 3.98   a year.

When you think about our poor investor behaviour, coupled with sky-high mutual fund fees (at least, here in Canada), those investors who just can’t help themselves might be better off parking their savings in the best five-year GIC and earning a guaranteed return. Continue Reading…