Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

Are you concerned about Retirement?

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“Retirement: World’s longest coffee break.”
—Author Unknown

Families are becoming increasingly concerned about achieving and maintaining their long term retirement goals. Some retirements will be in doubt. Others will fall short of the objectives. Having sufficient, reliable sources of funds is at the top of the worry list. Deploying a secure retirement plan spanning 20 to 30 years, often longer, is a demanding journey for many.

Planning for retirement remains a balancing exercise between providing for today and salting away a big enough portion for the later years. Sadly, not everyone gets it right. Hopefully, you will never have to face that dreaded realization. That is, you don’t have enough money to retire, or continue retirement, as planned.

“Most retirement concerns or mishaps typically surface after age 60.”

Someone who is broadly qualified should be in charge of stickhandling this exercise. Perhaps, someone who can take on duties of a “wealth pilot.” Extensive experience is desirable in navigating the nest egg through the myriad of temptations for making sudden moves. Logical decisions that place the family’s best interests first are a must. It also manages overreactions to daily headlines.

Canadian families rely on a combination of financial sources to fund retirement: personal savings such as cash, RRSP, RRIF and TFSA accounts. A variety of real estate properties contribute. Employer pension plan benefits are important to many. Government benefits typically include Old Age Security payments net of clawbacks and the Canada Pension Plan. The last two offer some flexibility as to when they commence. American families have their own assortment of registered accounts, such as 401(k) and IRAs, along with entitlements to Social Security.

Most retirement concerns or mishaps typically surface after age 60. This situation may pose a variety of difficulties to recover from. Some investing landscapes have been getting a little tattered of late. Continued low-return environments contribute to the dilemma.

What causes shortfalls

All retirements need to deal with several moving parts at once that develop along the roadway. I summarize some of the more critical reasons that affect retirement funding shortfalls:

  • Not saving enough to fully fund the family retirement.
  • Being in denial that the nest egg is not sufficient.
  • Spending more than can be safely drawn from the nest egg on hand.
  • Incurring large investment losses or borrowing more than safe limits.
  • Sustaining a breakup of the marriage or relationship.
  • Employer developments forced you to early retire sooner than planned.
  • Enduring a business failure or financial setback.
  • Involuntary payment reductions from an employer pension.
  • Incurring significant health costs or financial emergency.
  • Investment game plan is too conservative or concentrated.
  • Underestimating costs incurred, such as a retirement home facility.
  • Ignoring the adverse impact of inflation over the long run.

Investors are wise to delve into the pressures of delivering long-term portfolio results. Most nest eggs receive little or no saving capacity after retirement begins. Think of this as having to rely only on investment returns, say for 30 years. That is both hard to imagine and accomplish.

In addition, emotional attachments to investments owned typically prevent portfolios from taking corrective actions in a timely manner. For example, investors hold onto loss positions far longer than necessary.

Any one reason, or combination, can abruptly slam the brakes on family retirement goals. You typically need to act quickly to rectify the setback in the making.

I suggest starting with a deep breath. Then proceed to methodically analyze and estimate the size of your retirement shortfall. Sketching a few “what if” scenarios should help your family identify and select the best ways to move forward.

Assess your options

Continue Reading…

GreedyRates.ca: The 5 degrees of Financial Freedom

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Image: GreedyRates.ca/Shutterstock

My first article for GreedyRates.ca ran over the weekend. Click on The 5 Degrees of Financial Freedom for the full article. It talks about how many terms in personal finance are used interchangeably, and often imprecisely: financial security, financial independence, retirement and especially financial freedom.

I suggest that most of us travel through a financial life cycle as predictable as the human life cycle, and there is a corresponding hierarchy of growth stages that we need to keep in mind in order to continually meet and exceed our financial goals. But because the term financial freedom can apply to so many stages, I argue it’s better to use more precise terms to identify the various degrees of Financial Freedom.

From the 5-stage hierarchy below, I argue that the key milestone in our financial lives is Findependence (a contraction of Financial Independence), a turning point that I define as the moment all sources of passive income exceed your monthly living expenses. Note that the full version at GreedyRates.ca contains three key bullet points for each of the stages, for a total of 15. Below, I summarize just the stages themselves.

Stage (Sub) 0: Indebted Wage Slavery

We may start out our financial lives with student debt, credit-card debt or mortgage debt in the early years of forging careers and raising families. Whatever its nature, debt keeps you chained to employment or work of some type.  Since those starting their financial journey in debt haven’t really begun their financial journey at all, I call the preliminary stage Stage 0. As a character in my financial novel, Findependence Day, tells a young Millennial couple still in debt: “You can’t climb the tower of wealth while you’re still mired in the basement of debt.”

Stage 1: Financial Security

The next level to aspire to in the ascending hierarchy is Financial Security. In this stage you have eliminated your debts and have accumulated enough wealth so that your absolutely necessary monthly expenses (rent/mortgage, food, utilities, travel and basic entertainment) are taken care of for the near future.

Stage 2: Financial Vitality

It can take a long time just to establish a modicum of financial security but I argue you need to aim higher than mere financial survival and embrace what Tony Robbins dubs Financial Vitality. You want enough flexibility in your cash flow that, after the necessities are taken care of, you can enjoy little luxuries like new clothing or intangibles like gym or yoga memberships, and attend the occasional sporting or cultural event. It’s the difference between financially surviving and financially thriving.

Continue Reading…

Retired Money: The Four Phases of Retirement

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As anyone who has left full-time employment probably knows, these days Retirement is seldom a one-time sudden event. Just as an airplane doesn’t vertically descend instantly in order to land but begins its descent hundreds of kilometres away, so too do formerly fully employed workers usually gradually cut back. In fact, as my latest MoneySense Retired Money column says, there are at least four phases of Retirement. Click on the highlighted text to retrieve the full online column: The Four Phases of Retirement.

That’s according to former financial adviser and retiree Riley Moynes, who has prepared thousands of clients for retirement over his long career. His views are encapsulated in a short booklet titled just that: The Four Phases of Retirement. The subtitle is What to Expect When You’re Retiring, which is a clearly a nod to the bestselling book on pregnancy. 

Having just reached the traditional retirement age of 65 earlier this month, I can attest to the gradual nature of Retirement, which in earlier Retired Money columns referred to the glide path analogy made above.

So what are the 4 phases?

Phase 1: Extended Vacation

This is the classical honeymoon phase that full-time workers imagine amounts to a permanent vacation. It typically involves extended travel, the chance to indulge in hobbies, spend more time with the family and (especially!) one’s spouse.

Phase 2: The plunge into the abyss of insignificance

This “drop from the top” can be one of the top ten traumas human being faces in their lives. With it comes the reality of five “unavoidable losses”: structure, identify, relationships, a sense of purpose and a sense of power.

Phase 3: Trial & Error

The retiree starts to realize the sands of time are starting to slip rapidly away and that if you are to accomplish anything with what time remains, it had better be soon. The dominant question here is “How can I contribute?” You tentatively start a few ventures and eventually commit to one but are prepared to go back to the drawing board if it doesn’t work out.

Phase 4: Reinvent and Repurpose

Not everyone reaches this stage (indeed, some may go back to Phase 1 and just kick back and enjoy themselves again) but for those who yearn to  leave a legacy, Phase 4 is the place to do it. The retiree ask three questions designed to identify one’s unique ability: What do you absolutely love to do? What do you do very well? And what attributes or skills have led to success in the past?

Moynes now gives workshops on Retirement (see www.thefourphases.com) and also published a companion book in 2017 titled The Ten Lessons: How You Too Can Squeeze All the “Juice” Out of Retirement (see www.thetenlessons.com).

Generating Retirement cash flow from your Investments

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Once you stop working your objective shifts from growing your investment portfolio to generating income from it. Many retirees obsess over generating enough retirement cash flow from their investments. They prefer a predictable stream of income to partially replace their previous salary income.

Here are some strategies for getting cash flow from your retirement portfolio:

1.) Income only

This option is popular with retirees who want to maintain the value of their assets. Using this strategy, the retiree subsists on whatever income their bond and stock holdings generate.

Pros: As it doesn’t involve tapping into principal, this approach provides some insurance that a retiree won’t outlive assets. Investors tend to be more relaxed with short-term market volatility while receiving regular payouts.

Cons: Days are long gone where you could buy GICs and bonds yielding a safe 10 or 12%. Retirees in the 1990s were dismayed to see the interest on renewals drop from double-digit to mid-single digit rates, and now you may not get much more than 2%.

More investors are leaning towards dividend-paying stocks. A basket of dividend-paying stocks might generate 3% or 4% without taking on too much risk. Given these current low returns, the securities in a portfolio may have trouble generating a livable yield. Depending on your income requirements, you’ll likely need quite a large amount of invested capital to generate the income you desire.

Related: Why Living Off The Dividends No Longer Appeals To Me

Be careful when hunting for yield. Dividends are not guaranteed. Changes to a company’s dividend policy could occasionally result in payouts being reduced or eliminated altogether.

In reality, most investors will need to dip into their principal anyway to meet unexpected large expenses.

2.) Total return strategy

Here, retirees reinvest all income, dividends and capital gains back into their holdings at their target allocation after taking the amount they need for annual living expenses.

Pros: By rebalancing, it forces the investor to sell appreciated assets on a regular basis while leaving underperforming assets in place, or adding to them.

Cons: If there is a prolonged market downturn, withdrawals can drastically erode capital and reduce future return potential. That argues for holding a comfortable cushion of at least 3 –5 years worth of living expenses in liquid form – cash or cash alternatives. Continue Reading…

U.S. Inflation: A case of high anxiety?

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U.S. CPI vs. U.S. CPI ex-Food & Energy Year-over-Year Change from 1/31/2010 to 1/31/2018

By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

 Special to the Financial Independence Hub

There is no doubt that inflation fear has reared its ugly head early in 2018, impacting the money and bond markets in rather noteworthy fashion. Some key headline-grabbing measures, such as wages and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), have come in above consensus forecasts to start the year, fueling a case of high anxiety for the fixed income arena. Naturally, the million (or should it be billion?) dollar question is: Are these heightened inflation fears warranted?

As we entered the new year, consensus forecasts for inflation were that readings at both the overall and core (ex-food and energy) levels would essentially remain unchanged. Interestingly, economists’ projections have been revised upward of late and now post slightly elevated readings. Indeed, the CPI is now expected to come in at a year-over-year rate of +2.3%, or 0.2 percentage points (pp) higher than the prior projection. The alternate measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, has been changed to a +1.9% increase (also up 0.2 pp), with the core PCE gauge being lifted 0.1 pp to +1.8%. The bottom line is that these revised estimates now all look for some modest increase from 2017 levels.

What about the Federal Reserve (Fed)? For now, all investors have to go by is the policy makers’ December projections. The March FOMC meeting, scheduled for March 21st, will be the Fed’s next chance to make any potential adjustments to their prior forecasts.. The preferred measure is the PCE price index, and the policy makers provide projections for both the overall and core PCE gauges. The Fed’s central tendency estimate is similar to the revised market consensus, with a range of +1.7% to +1.9% for each index. It should be noted that both the economists’ and the Fed’s current PCE projections still fall below the +2.0% target laid out by the policy makers.

Let’s take another look

So, let’s take another look at the aforementioned wages and CPI numbers. Continue Reading…