Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

How to avoid your own retirement crisis

Posted By |

By Myron Genyk

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The Canadian working population feels anxiety about retirement. Numerous surveys have shown that Canadians lack knowledge about how to save for retirement and stress about it. And for good reason – it’s difficult for someone with no personal finance background to know where or how to start. Canadian workers recognize that retirement investing is becoming increasingly important, as 75 per cent of Canadian employees believe there’s an emerging retirement crisis.

So how can you avoid your own retirement crisis? What do you need to do to get started? Generally, the first step is to open an investment account, and to do what is commonly referred to as “self-directed investing” or “DIY investing.”  Once set up, here are five tips to ensure you are successfully investing for retirement:

1.) Start early

Compounded returns work their magic over longer periods of time, so it’s crucial to invest for retirement as early as possible.

For instance, if you invested $1,000 at age 25 and earned a return of 5.00% over 40 years, you would have $7,040 at age 65 (in today’s dollars). If you invested that same $1,000 at age 45, you would need to realize annual returns of 10.25% to have that same amount at age 65. This percentage only increases as you age. Starting early lowers your hurdle rates.

2.) Be consistent

Create a realistic savings plan. Whether it’s setting aside $20 or $200 of your paycheck, it’s important to set the amount and stick to it.

Avoid trying to time the market. So much has been written about how nobody can time markets; some people can be lucky over short periods, but nobody can do this consistently – not a fund manager, not your brother-in-law, not your neighbour.

You might also be enticed to put off saving for a couple of months, putting that money towards a vacation or something.  Deviating from your savings plan could lead to forgetting to resume with your plan, or believing that you don’t need to continue with it.

3.) Keep fees low

Most people might not think much about a 1% or 2% difference in fees.  After all, whether you tip 15% or 16% at your local breakfast diner might be the difference of a few dimes.  However, when incurred over years and decades, these fees can substantially eat into your investment portfolio. Continue Reading…

Healthcare sector offers unique combination of Defense and Growth

Posted By |

Harvest ETFs CIO explains that as markets take a breather, the healthcare sector continues to show defensive characteristics with exposure to growth prospects

The healthcare sector offers a unique combination of defensive and growth-oriented prospects. Photo Shutterstock/Harvest ETFs

By Paul MacDonald, CIO, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

US large-cap healthcare has been a bastion for investors in an otherwise rough market. While not fully insulated from the broad sell-off we’ve seen in recent months, the sector has outperformed due to stable demand, high margins and relatively low commodity price exposure. The Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL:TSX) combines a portfolio of diversified large-cap healthcare companies with an active covered call strategy to generate consistent monthly cash distributions. The portfolio’s defensive positions, plus its income payments, has resulted in significant outperformance of broader markets.

In the wake of July earnings data, however, we saw some relief come to the broader markets as companies across sectors reported largely in line with expectations, providing much-needed visibility. As markets breathed a sigh of relief, growth-oriented sectors like tech started to pare back losses from earlier in the year. While the healthcare sector has shown its reputation for defensiveness in recent months, we are also seeing that the sector’s growth tailwinds are making a greater impact.

This whole space is innovative: whether that’s a company leading the way on robotic-assisted surgery, or a huge established player like Eli Lily making strides in obesity medication. Healthcare companies have significant growth tailwinds and, in our most recent rebalance of HHL we’ve taken some steps to capture more of those growth prospects.

Positioning HHL for growth prospects

We would stress that the recent rebalance in HHL maintained the ETF’s commitment to subsector and style diversification within the healthcare sector. However, some of the new additions to HHL have positioned the portfolio for greater growth opportunity.

The first move was replacing Agilent Technologies with Danaher in the portfolio holdings. Both companies focus on life sciences, tools & diagnostics, but Danaher has a more diverse line of businesses and a larger market share, which in our experience better positions Danaher for any potential market recovery.

The second move in the rebalance was to remove HCA Healthcare Inc, a value position which had shown worsening earnings visibility and rising costs due to labour issues and add Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive Surgical is the market leader in robotic-assisted surgery, with technology almost a decade ahead of its closest competitor. The robotic-assisted surgery market is currently underpenetrated, and a number of companies are making strides in the space: including Stryker, another HHL portfolio holding. The addition of Intuitive Surgical positions HHL to better participate in that subsector’s growth prospects.

While moves like these are designed to position HHL for improved growth prospects, we should emphasize that the whole portfolio is designed for diversified exposure to the growth opportunities and defensive characteristics inherent in the healthcare sector.

Maintaining defense while capturing growth opportunity

It’s ironic. We can easily think of specific investment sectors as a value-growth binary, trading off one for the other. But the healthcare sector isn’t so simple. Some of the largest companies in this sector have incredible growth prospects due to innovations in treatments, pharmaceuticals, and patient service. At the same time, given the large-cap focus we take in HHL, even our more growth-oriented names have market shares and barriers to entry that can be seen as highly defensive.

Those characteristics have shown themselves throughout 2022, as low commodity price exposures and high margins kept the sector in a state of outperformance. HHL is also one of the 6 Harvest ETFs held in the Harvest Diversified Monthly Income ETF (HDIF:TSX), where it contributes to the overall defensive position of that core portfolio.

There are also two aspects of HHL that beef up its defensive traits: diversification and covered calls. Continue Reading…

Building the All-Stock Retirement portfolio

Posted By |

By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

How do you build a suitable retirement portfolio, made of stocks? I gave that a go recently on Seeking Alpha. That may lead to a greater debate about ‘can you really build a suitable retirement stock portfolio?’ I’d say that yes you can, but we have to cover off all of the bases (economic conditions). And we have to have a portfolio that takes a defensive stance. Also, the Canadian investor might be in a very fortunate position thanks to defensive wide-moat stocks that pay generous dividends. They can work as bond replacements. We’re building the retirement stock portfolio.

I will give you the juicy bits, but if you are able to access Seeking Alpha here is the original retirement post on Seeking Alpha.

The concept of the retirement all-stock portfolio is to take an all-weather portfolio approach. But instead of using bonds, cash, gold and commodities, we’re going to put stocks in the right place. And we’re going to use the appropriate amount of stocks to cover off the risks.

A good starting point for the all-weather portfolio is the venerable Permanent Portfolio. That model includes only one asset for each economic quadrant.

Stocks. Bonds. Cash. Gold.

Here is an outline of a study from Man Institute that details the types of stocks and sectors that worked in various economic conditions. Keep in mind that REITs have worked for inflation and stagflation from the 1970s. I’ve given REITs a pass for inflation.

Defense wins championships

At its core, the retirement stock portfolio is quite defensive. Certain types of stocks will do the job of bonds. They will help in times of bear markets and recessions. They can also deliver ample income: much more than bonds these days.

The Canadian retirement stock portfolio will take full advantage of the wide moat stocks.

I’ll cut to the chase. Here are the assets to cover off the economic quadrants:

Defensive bond substitute stocks – 60%

Utilities / Pipelines / Telecom / Consumer Staples / Healthcare / Canadian banks

Growth assets – 20%

Consumer discretionary, retailers, technology, healthcare, financials, industrials and energy stocks

Inflation protectors – 20%

REITs 10%

Oil and gas stocks 10%

Not listed in this inflation-protection section is consumer staples, healthcare, utilities and pipeline stocks. Those stocks can do double duty. They work during times of market stress (corrections/recessions) and they can often deliver modest inflation protection as well.

Maybe consider gold and commodities?

While you may opt for a stock/cash portfolio, it may be wise to consider gold and commodities, even if in very modest amounts.

Nothing is as reliable and explosive for inflation as commodities. The most optimal balanced portfolios do include gold.

A 5% allocation to each of gold and commodities may go a long way to protecting your wealth.

An inflation bucket might then look like:

  • Gold 5%
  • Commodities 5%
  • Energy stocks 5%
  • REITs 5%

A cash wedge is not a bad idea

Cash helps your cause during stock market declines, stagflation and deflation. Mark Seed at My Own Advisor plans to use a stock and cash approach for retirement funding.

Given all of the above considerations, a retiree might go off the stock-only-script modestly with 5% weighting to each: gold, commodities and cash. It’s quite likely that the 15% allocation will come in very handy one day. Continue Reading…

Time to go on a Financial Media Diet

Posted By |
LowrieFinancial.com: Canva custom creation

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In my recent mid-year letter to clients, I decided we’d best just call a spade a spade, so I began as follows:

“Let’s not sugarcoat this: 2022 has challenged investors on nearly every financial front imaginable so far this year.”

Stock and bond markets plummeting in tandem, the war in the Ukraine, rises in interest rates, threats of a looming recession … You’re probably already well aware of the volume of news wearing us down. As I wrote to my clients:

“the financial press has gone on a feeding frenzy in response, serving up heaping helpings of negativity upon negativity.”

Everyone loves a Perma-Bear

Whether by traditional channels or social media streams, amplifying extreme news is in large part what the popular financial press does.

They’re not entirely to blame; we consumers tend to gobble it up with a spoon. That’s thanks to a behavioural bias known as loss aversion, which causes the average investor to dislike losing money approximately twice as much as they enjoy gaining it. Our “fight or flight” instincts basically prime us remain on constant high-alert when it comes to protecting our life’s savings.

Media outlets know that, and routinely round up a stable of talking heads to scratch that behavioural itch. Their “regulars” even earn catchy nicknames:

Perma-bear

Back in 2012, economist David Rosenberg put together a presentation called 51 Signs the Economy Is a Total Disaster. (What, only 51?) We know that reality begged to differ. He tried again in 2019, when he declared: “We’re going into a recession … I think it will be this coming year.” It didn’t happen.

Dr. Doom

Whenever the press needs a fresh Armageddon forecast, they know they can call on “Dr. Doom” economist Nouriel Roubini. It doesn’t seem to matter that he’s been mostly wrong far more often than not. As recently as early July, Roubini was predicting a 50% freefall in the stock market. So far, not so much (thankfully).

Recession Man

As reported in ‘Recession Man’: Burry’s Tweets Resonate With Traders Worried About A Downturn, hedge fund manager Michael Burry built his fame from correctly calling the 2007 U.S. subprime mortgage crash. Lately, he’s been posting cryptic tweets to his nearly 1 million followers that “reflect increasing fears of an economic downturn.” As academic Peter Atwater explains of Burry’s popularity:

“The tweets that get shared and liked the most are the ones that fit with how we feel the most … Twitter is an enormous mirror.”

If you look closer, you might spot a card hiding up these soothsayers’ sleeves: with a large, random group of “experts” loudly predicting doom and gloom nearly all the time, basic statistics informs us: a few of them are going to be right every so often, with seemingly uncanny accuracy. Their fortuitous timing makes them look super smart, which earns them even more fame. The cycle continues.

Going on a Financial Media Diet

On many fronts, times are indeed disheartening, and we’re as worn out as you are by the weight of the world. That said, there are already way too many outlets cramming worst-case scenarios down our throats and crushing investment resolve. To offset a bitter pill overdose, following are a few more nutritious news sources to reinforce why we remain confident that capital markets will continue to prevail over time, and that long-term investors should just stick to their plan.

Stock Markets Grow

The following chart is one of our favorites, as it shows at a glance that which the bad news bears routinely disregard: Stock markets have gone up nicely, and far more frequently than they’ve gone down. We have no reason to believe current trends are going to alter this uplifting, nearly century-long reality.¹ Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Suddenly Retired while Covid lingers

Posted By |

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at how the last two years of the Covid pandemic may have caused many older workers to find themselves suddenly retired, whether by their choice or not. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted text: Does it make sense to retire when we’re still in a pandemic?

Depending on when you had originally planned to retire — typically the traditional Retirement age in Canada is around 65 — the unexpected loss of Employment income may create any of several possibilities.

A major one is Semi-Retirement: a sort of half-way house between full employment and traditional full-stop Retirement. They may embrace a so-called Portfolio Career, generating multiple streams of income: employer pensions, government pensions, investment income, annuities, self-employment income; rental income, book royalties, speaking fees and the like.

Those in their early 60s may decide re-employment is not in the cards, which means a severance package may be your ticket to launching an encore career and becoming self-employed.

While self-employment may seem scary to those who spent more of their careers as salaried employees, self-employment doesn’t necessarily mean starting a business and employing others. Freelancing or consulting is typically a one-person gig; it may even just mean cobbling together several part-time jobs.

The column also addresses the possibility of downsizing to a smaller or less expensive place in the country, which many sudden retirees have done during the Covid era. Of course, the whole WorkfromHome phenomenon has shown how new technologies like Slack and Zoom make it possible to work remotely from anywhere with a reliable Internet connection. Two years into living with the pandemic, such technologies seem to have become permanent fixtures of working, whether remotely or a hybrid of commuting and telecommuting.

Those who were already near retirement and who enjoy good employer pensions and/or solid nest eggs from RRSPs, TFSAs and other savings, may decide they can get by without finding new employment or braving the waters of self-employment.

Time may be worth more than money

The column quotes financial marketer Darin Diehl, laid off at age 60 before Covid: “Even before Covid, my wife and I were thinking about whether we’d stay in our Mississauga home for the transition years into retirement, or downsize and relocate out of the city … Covid caused us to think about our options more thoroughly.” Continue Reading…