The concept of a safe withdrawal rate (and the 4% rule) is a key planning tool for Canadians of all ages. After all, if you don’t have a general withdrawal plan, how can you know how much you need to save in the first place?
If you have been reading MDJ for years, you already have an idea of how to use a Canadian online broker account to DIY-invest your way to a solid nest egg.
Now you’re planning for retirement (whether it’s 20+ years away or next year) and you’re wondering how to take money out of that nest egg. Perhaps hoping that there is a rule for how much you can take out each year in retirement, and never go broke. That concept is generally referred to as a safe withdrawal rate, and we’ll go into detail on how this works in just a second.
We’ll even look at how to incorporate multiple accounts, such as your TFSA, RRSP, and a non-registered account into your safe withdrawal rate – as well tax rules surrounding the withdrawal of investments from those accounts.
And finally, we’ll seek to answer the question you probably really want answered: How do I turn my nest egg into a usable stream of money that I can depend on and spend as I look forward to retirement?
Surprisingly, when it comes to discussing Canadian safe retirement withdrawal rates, and talking to folks who have retired at all ages, spending their retirement savings represents a massive mental strain for them. I guess (as someone who has never retired or sold investments to pay for retirement) that I always thought that saving for retirement would be the hard part.
Isn’t spending supposed to be more fun than squirreling away?
It turns out that once you get into that savings mindset, it can be hard to flip the switch back to enjoying spending the fruits of your labour. This is especially true for folks who are looking at retirement withdrawal strategies for an early retirement because they are much more likely to have been super-aggressive savers during their time in the workforce.
I didn’t go into the topic of safe withdrawal rates for retirement expecting the topic to be so deep and full of variables! After all, the concept seems simple enough, right?
How much can I take out of my investment portfolio each year, if I need that nest egg to last for 30, 35, 40, or even 50 years?
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The 4% Retirement Withdrawal Rule
Ok, so let’s maybe start with the rule of thumb that advisors have used when looking at retirement drawdown plans for a while now.
Back in 1994 a financial advisor named William Bengen looked at the last 80 or so years of markets and retirement, did a bunch of math, and arrived at a concept we now call “The 4% rule.”
The basic idea of the 4% retirement withdrawal plan is that someone could safely withdraw 4% of their investment/savings portfolio each year and – assuming a 60/40 or 50/50 split of bonds/stocks in their portfolio – they would never run out of money.
This idea of withdrawing a certain percentage of your portfolio to fund your retirement is called the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR). The math behind this magic 4% figure means that if you have the nice round $1 Million investment portfolio that we all dream of, you could safely pull out $40,000 the first year, and then adjust for inflation and withdraw 4% plus inflation after that. (So if there was 2% inflation between year one and year two, you could now withdraw $40,800.)
Bengen, and another highly influential study took their rule and retroactively applied it to retirees from every single year from 1926 to 1994. They found that nearly 100% of the time (depending on what was in the investment portfolio) people could retire, and withdraw 4% of their portfolio for 30 years of retirement: and not run out of money.
In fact, over half of the time, if retirees followed the 4% rule, they not only didn’t run out of money, they finished life with more money than when they started retirement!
Keep in mind, these authors didn’t worry about OAS or CPP, or a workplace pension, or even the tax implications of different types of withdrawals. They were simply trying to come up with a useful rule of thumb for how much a person could safely withdraw from their retirement portfolio.
What the 4% Rule Means for your Magic Retirement Portfolio Number
If you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio to fund your retirement, then the simple math tells us that if you can accumulate 25x your annual retirement budget, you no longer have to work.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Jane looks at her budget and realizes that once she retires she will have a lot less spending demands. She carefully weighs the numbers and believes she’ll need $40,000 per year to quit her 9-to-5.
- Consequently, Jane needs the magical “4% of her portfolio” to equal $40,000 per year.
- For a 4% withdrawal to equal $40,000, Jane will need a $1,000,000 portfolio.
- If Jane reassesses and realizes she needs $60,000 per year in retirement, Jane would need 25 times $60,000 (because 4% goes into 100% twenty-five times) which is $1.5 Million.
- Jane might not need anywhere close to $1.5M if she intends to do a little part-time work in retirement, and is willing to use some math + research strategies to help herself out a bit when it comes to managing her nest egg! But more on that later…
4% Safe Withdrawal Rate for Retirement: Potential Problems
Up until the 4% rule became a thing, when financial advisors were asked about safe withdrawal rates, the only thing they could really say is, “it depends.” Continue Reading…






