General

Italian Economics: Watch Salvini

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By Jeff Weniger, CFA, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In April, the Italian public was so incensed by the country’s broken government budget, endemic graft and unaffordable inward migration that half of the general election vote went to two protest parties. On the left, the Five Star Movement topped all, with 32% support, while the right-wing League party took 18%. Since then, the League has gathered even more support. Its leader, Matteo Salvini, may now be the most powerful person in Italy.

Salvini’s answer to the European Question

With a wave of migration from North Africa and the Middle East in recent years, Italy finds itself dealing with culture clashes and a scramble to find the money to house and feed the new arrivals.

But amid all the talk of the migrant crisis, what has gone largely unnoticed is that both Five Star and the League have some economic policies that are irrational at best, dangerous at worst. With the news cycle focused on cultural issues, we are wise to remember that Salvini, currently positioned as the champion of nativist Italy, has communist roots. His economic belief system has shifted with age, but this is no solace to EUR longs.

Key planks

The coalition government’s common ground includes overturning the Fornero Law, which increased retirement ages, and putting a universal basic income of €780 (C$1,193) per month on the table. However, the coalition does interestingly entertain the idea of a flat tax. All of these together would conspire to blow out Italy’s 2.3% budget deficit-to-GDP ratio.

Positive backdrop

Italy’s 1.4% GDP growth may be anemic, but it is above water, and high by Italian standards; the norm this century is +0.4%. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, at 52.7, has essentially been in nonstop expansion since the first quarter of 2015.1 Unemployment is down to a still-troubling 11.1%, but it was nearly 13% in 2014. Investors must ask: what odd fiscal and/or monetary policies will voters demand if conditions become recessionary?

Start with one such policy, which Brussels fears, that is haunting the bond market and EUR.

The specter of a parallel currency

A “New Lira,” side-by-side with the euro. The state will not come out and say it at the moment, but that’s what the proposal for “mini-BOTs” will mean. If Five Star and the League do go down this path, mini-BOTs would be short maturity debt instruments that can be used to state obligations. On the other side of the ledger, owners of the mini-BOTs could use them to pay taxes. This risk has been haunting the bond market and EUR since the idea entered the conversation in mid-May.

For this privilege 

Figure 1 highlights in green the few bonds that yield more than two-year Canadian sovereigns. Australia and the U.S. generally yield more across the board, but investors have to reach for seven-year bonds in Italy to exceed Ottawa’s 2020 maturities.

Figure 1: Sovereign Yields (Highlighted Green if > Canadian Two-Year Government Bond)

Figure 1_Sovereign Yields

December looms

The stated aim of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to “keep prices stable, thereby supporting economic growth and job creation.” But in the last decade, what mattered is its implicit mandate: keep Europe together. The combination of fuzzier European economic data and the potential for Italian mini-BOTs could cause a “dovish” surprise by the ECB’s Mario Draghi, who is set to end the central bank’s €30bn bond purchase program in December.  Perhaps the surprise is an extension of the bloc’s zero interest rate policy for another year or so. That could harm EUR bulls.

European banks not yet indicating Contagion

One way in which European systemic risks can be priced is via bank credit default swaps (CDS). Figure 2 shows current CDS levels along with the peak fear points of the last five years. Continue Reading…

It isn’t what it used to be: Prospects for interest rates and inflation

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When I talk to serious, successful investors, few ask, “Do you think the central banks will raise rates two or three times by a quarter-point before the end of the year?” or “Do you think inflation will hit 3% in the next year?” They are more likely to ask things like, “What are the chances that interest rates and/or inflation will get back up to the peaks of the 1970s/1980s?”

That is a much more important question.  A quarter-point change in interest rates or inflation is a fluctuation. A return to the peaks of the 1970s/1980s would be a disaster.

No one can predict the future, of course. The easy way out on the question would be to say, “Oh no, that could never happen again.” But the productive way to address a question like this is to look at those earlier decades and to try to figure out what was special about them.

It seems to me that in the years prior to those decades, three specific political/economic factors worked together to unlock a lot of pent-up demand for money, goods and services, and funnel it into a narrow timeframe where it could have great impact. These factors helped spur the rise in interest rates and inflation that followed.

The first factor was that, during four decades between the early 1930s and the early 1970s, the U.S. managed to fix the price of gold at around $35 U.S. per oz.

Greenback became a world currency in three crucial periods

This helped set up the U.S. dollar as something of a world currency during three crucial, historic periods: the 1930s depression, World War II and the post-war boom. The role of world-currency issuer let the U.S. expand its money supply without burdening itself with a heavy load of domestic inflation — not burdening itself right away, that is. But eventually the $35 gold peg gave way, like a dam that bursts when the force of a rising river becomes too much. The breaching of that $35 barrier helped set off a worldwide wave of inflation, as the value of the U.S. dollar withered in relation to the value of gold. Continue Reading…

Sh*it my advisor says

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Some investors eventually leave their commission-based advisors and opt to set up a simple portfolio of index funds or ETFs on their own. There are plenty of compelling reasons to do so; the reduction in fees alone can save investors thousands of dollars a year, and academic research shows that the lower your costs, the greater your share of an investment’s return.

Related: Steak Knives, Yes. Financial Advice, Maybe Not

In my fee-only planning service, many clients end up doing exactly that. I always enjoy hearing the rebuttals from bank and investment firm advisors whenever they hear their clients want to move to a lower-cost portfolio. Here I’ve tried to capture some of that conversation with sh*t my advisor says:

Sexism: When my husband told him we’re choosing simple index investing and that I handle the family finances he smirked and said to my husband, “What credentials does your wife have to manage money?”

The real enemy: Our investment company is being vilified when the true villains are credit card companies with their interest rates.

Proof of concept: I have tons of clients with assets over $500,000 so I must be doing something right.

Working for free: My advisor told me she basically worked for me for free for the past eight years and accused me of dumping her just as my assets were growing.

It takes a professional: People think they can trade mutual funds or ETFs on their own but it’s not as easy as you think. Plus, you don’t have anyone like me to call up and ask if you’re doing the right thing. Re-balancing a portfolio is easy if you have the background, but doing it like you’re thinking about (indexing) is very tough without the training and knowledge.

What’s in a fee?: The fees are at 2 per cent (Ed. Note: actually, 2.76 per cent) because this isn’t just about buying and selling. We created a complete portfolio with you for your tolerance in the market and deal in actively traded mutual funds that most of the time outperform the market.

Nortel: ETFs aren’t all that great. When you buy an ETF you buy the whole fund. In the late 90s when Nortel owned 30 per cent of the TSX it crashed. If you purchased that ETF you’d be down 30 per cent too! But with a mutual fund you can’t buy that much. You are only able to purchase up to 10 per cent of any one company. So you would have been fairly safe with the crash of Nortel.

Downside protection: If the market goes down 20 per cent your ETFs will too. You are much more protected with mutual funds.

Apples-to-apples: All of our fees are wrapped up together in our MER. We do not charge account fees, transaction fees, advisory fees, admin fees or fees for our service. It is just the MER.

Clairvoyance: The bond market has likely reached its peak and appears to moving in a different direction. The equity markets are very risky at this time. In my mind the only safe place left is guaranteed deposits. Continue Reading…

Seasonal work in Retirement

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By Fritz Gilbert, TheRetirementManifesto.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Have you ever thought about seasonal work in retirement?  My friend, Kirk, recently leveraged seasonal work to experience something for the first time in his life.  He became a cowboy, through a seasonal job at a Dude Ranch.

At Age 58!

You may remember Kirk, he’s visited with us before (including his thru-hike on the Appalachian Trail, his broken foot on the Pacific Crest Trail and the story of breaking his ribs when he Lived Life At The Limits on a mountain bike ride with yours truly).  This Fall, he’s heading to Nepal to do some trekking around Mt. Everest.  Interesting guy, my friend Kirk, and we can all learn something from the way he lives his life in retirement.

Today, he tells us the story of doing seasonal work in retirement at a Dude Ranch, which he did in the Spring of 2018.

The old military and corporate guy became a cowboy.  Well, that may be a bit of an exaggeration, but he did “wrangle horses” for 6 weeks at a Dude Ranch. How cool is that?

Here’s his story…

Working On A Dude Ranch

Kirk. A “FIRE Guy In His Prime”

I promised myself I would write three “potential” blog posts for my friend this year covering what could possibly be my most adventurous year since my retirement began 2 ½ years ago. Caution: I am not the spectacular writer that Fritz is; however, here is my latest adventure …

(Note from Fritz: I don’t know about my writing skills, but I do know that Kirk lives life more “on the edge” than anyone I personally know. Nepal, really? That Kirk guy is nuts!)

When I retired roughly 2 ½ years ago I decided to do away with my “LinkedIn” account. I was cleaning up some old things from my work years and didn’t think I would need a resume in my retirement life. As I started checking off things in my Dump Truck List (Buckets are no longer big enough) I started realizing that I had some skill gaps. Ultimately, I wanted to be a wrangler for a cattle drive in Montana but realized that wasn’t going to happen if I didn’t have some experience handling a horse.

I researched some possible jobs through www.coolworks.com and drafted a list of the qualifications for some of the wrangling jobs which interested me. Much to my surprise, I met them all with one exception:

I had no experience in riding a horse.

Having grown up on a farm really prepared me well for many aspects of the job, but we never had horses. How could I learn to ride a horse, handle the tack, teach the ranch’s customers, etc. if I didn’t know how to handle horses myself? While I suppose I could have paid for the experience — I am FI [Financially Independent], after all — there was something in me that kept gnawing in the deep recesses of my mind.

Thoughts which whispered, and thoughts that led to my decision to pursue seasonal work in retirement:

You have been so frugal all your life to get to FI, is this really how you want to spend your money?
Would you really be able to buy this experience or is this something you have to spend time acquiring skill, talent, and familiarity?
What other experiences do you need now in order to pursue the future adventures of your dreams?

(Note from Fritz: I like how Kirk thinks several moves ahead. Dream for your tomorrow, and identify what you should be doing Today in order to achieve your dreams. Move your life from Good To Great).

After much thought, I decided to venture out to an unknown area for me and listen to the younger crowd who said many of their wonderful experiences were as “Workaway” people.  Workaway is simply a web service that connects people who are looking for experience with people that are looking for help.  The Workaway people generally work 4 – 5 hours per day, 5 days per week in exchange for room/board and experience.  Given that I have plans to travel through Asia in the coming years, this approach could help with some international options as well. I looked into the site http://www.workaway.info and decided to give it a try.

It was somewhat difficult to determine where I would go to gain this experience.  I wasn’t sure how it would all work out, so I decided to minimize my risk by choosing a location that:

  • had good/great reviews by those who participated
  • was close so if it was horrible I could bail
  • had more than just myself as a workaway so I could learn from the experience of others

I ended up selecting a Bed and Breakfast Dude Ranch in upstate NY, only an hour away from where I grew up and where my mother still lives.  If it was a horrible experience I had a solid Plan B. I would simply bail out and stay with my mom, working around her house to complete some things on her “To Do” list.  It would also afford me the opportunity to spend time with some aunts, uncles, and cousins which I had not seen in far too long. Continue Reading…

5 surefire ways to stay out of Debt

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By Gary Bordeaux

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In the modern world, there are two types of debt: good bad and bad debt. Good debt would be considered financing something that has the potential to go up in value, like a home or a small business. Bad debt would be considered consumer debt like jewelry, designer clothes, and luxury cars. These things tend to depreciate. People typically get into trouble financially when they start going into debt with consumer goods or things they really don’t need.

1.) Create a budget

Unless you are already financially well-off, you are going to need to create a budget for you and your family. This is the single biggest way not to go into debt. Why? Because you are tracking every dollar you spend. Start out by listing your monthly income after taxes at the top of the budget, then list your expenses below that. If you don’t have a surplus of money after all your expenses are accounted for, you are either spending too much money or you are not making enough money. Whatever the case may be, adjust your budget accordingly.

2.) Quickbooks

The Quickbooks online platform by Intuit is probably one of the best online financial tools you can use for your business. In general, it is an online accounting software that helps manage your finances for you. With an easy Quickbooks online payment, you can pay people and you can receive money too. In the end, business finances can get pretty confusing. Quickbooks allows you to track your finances more easily. Also, Intuit has a budgeting app called Mint. I use Mint quite often and it tracks all my transactions and spending activity. It also tracks your budgets, monthly cash flow, and your credit score along with many other investments and other accounts.

3.) Emergency fund

Let’s face the fact that bad things happen to good people. When these setbacks occur, people need money set aside to protect themselves from debt. This is what an emergency fund can do. First, start by putting away a simple $1,000 just in case an emergency happens. Continue Reading…