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Focus on Blue Chips and hold the good ones indefinitely

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Uncover good companies for long-term investments and you will boost your portfolio returns over time. Learn more here and discover one of our top picks.

 

Long-term stock investment strategies aren’t built to make a fast dollar. They are built to prosper over time, and most importantly, teach you how to pick the right stocks.

In our view, your goal as an investor, particularly if you follow a conservative investing strategy like the one we recommend, is to make an attractive return on your investments over a period of years or decades. Failure means making bad investments that leave you with meager profits or losses. Continue reading to learn about good companies for long-term investments.

Visa Inc., symbol V on New York, is on our list of good companies for long-term investments

Visa has been a terrific performer for our subscribers since we first recommended the stock at $19 (adjusted for share splits) in the December 2010 issue of our Wall Street Stock Forecaster newsletter.

A big part of Visa’s appeal is that it gets most of its revenue from the fees it charges card issuers and merchants using its network. This unique business model means the banks — and not Visa — are responsible for evaluating customer creditworthiness and collecting payments, which helps to cut risk for investors.

The company first sold its stock to the public at $11 a share in March 2008. We held off recommending it at that time, as the best way to cut the risk of investing in initial public offerings is to wait till after the next market slump and/or recession comes along. Thanks to Visa’s unique business model, it was able to avoid big losses during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Even though rising interest rates and inflation could slow consumer spending, we feel Visa has many more years of growth ahead. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift to online shopping, while the easing of restrictions will spur the use of credit and debit cards to pay for airline tickets and hotel rooms.

Visa is also making shrewd acquisitions that enhance its expertise in new areas, such as buy-now-pay-later payment plans. These moves will let it stay ahead of smaller firms with potentially disruptive fintech (the combination of financial services and technology services). 

The company also continues to reward investors. In the first half of fiscal 2022, it spent $7.05 billion on share buybacks. It still has $9.8 billion remaining under its current authorization.

Visa has also increased its dividend each year since the 2008 IPO.

Visa is a buy for long-term gains.

Spotting good companies for long-term investments lets you profit from long-term growth in the economy

For decades — as long as I’ve been involved with the stock market — some brokers have claimed that they favour the “buy and hold” investing strategy in principle, except when the market was so treacherous and unpredictable that their clients had to indulge in short-term trading, options or whatever to make any money. Continue Reading…

Why Retirees own cash, bonds & GICs

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By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Imagine retiring, and then you have to head back to work, or you cancel your planned trips and greatly curtail your lifestyle. That’s what happened to too many who retired at or near the recesssions created by the dot com crash and the financial crisis. Risk in retirement is perhaps the flipside of risk in the accumulation stage. In the accumulation stage, lower stock prices can be very good. Lower prices in retirement can impair retirement. The equity risk in retirement is called sequence of returns risk. Poor stock market returns early in retirement can create a situation where the portfolio value has decreased, and selling more shares at lower prices might be hazardous to your retirement health. That’s why retirees own bonds, cash and GICs.

I will start off with a few charts that demonstrate the path of a retiree’s portfolio who retired at the start of the dot com crash (late 90s) and the financial crisis (2007-2009).

Here’s the drawdown history in recessions using the U.S. market as an example.

Yes, two of the most recent major corrections were epic and extraordinary. In the dot com crash and the financial crisis, stock markets were down 50%. In the early 2000s U.S. stock markets were down 3 years in a row.

The “average” decline in a recession is close to 25%. But as we know, average rarely happens when it comes to investing and stock markets.

The dot com crash retirement scenario

In the following scenario the retiree has a  C$1,000,000 portfolio and spends 4.2% of the portfolio value in year one. The $1,000,000 creates $42,000 of income. The spending rate then increases, adjusted for inflation. If inflation is 3%, the retiree gets a 3% raise.

The portfolio is 50% U.S. stocks and 50% global.

Portfolio Visualizer

We can see that it was “over” quickly for the equity portfolio in this scenario. Even the strong market returns from 2003 to 2008 could not bring the portfolio back to health. In late 2007 the portfolio value was $870,000 but the spend rate would have been considerable. We have a portfolio value much lower than $1,000,000 and the amount taken out of the portfolio has increased at the rate of inflation. It is a dead portfolio walking, even in 2007. The financial crisis essentially finished it off, and was limping through the 2010s. 2024 would be its final year.

Unfortunate start date

The retiree was a victim of bad luck. They strolled into a very unfortunate start date – at the beginning of a recession and a severe stock market correction.

Let’s head back two years to see what happens to a retiree who retired in 1998.

What a difference two years makes. That said, I would suggest that the portfolio was impaired in 2003 and 2008. It was outrageous stock market gains that brought the portfolio back to the land of the living. There is no guarantee that after 40% and 50% portfolio declines that 30% and 20% annual stock market gains will ride to the rescue.

It’s also likely that a retiree who has watched 30% to 40% of their portfolio value disappear is not comfortable keeping up the spend rate. They have cancelled trips, dinners, gifting and more. They might have self-imposed retirement withdrawal.

Risk is different and feels different in retirement.

That self-imposed retirement withdrawal may have occurred during the financial crisis as well.

Who is going to keep the spend rate when the portfolio is down over 50%? I’d suggest no one. And I’d count that as a retirement failure, having to change your retirement plans.

Are you feeling lucky?

Now, let’s give the retiree a very fortunate start date. 1991.

The portfolio never sees new lows. And obvioulsy, the retiree could have treated themself to a much higher spend rate of 4.2% inflation-adjusted. That’s called a variable withdrawal strategy. You spend more when times are very good. And you spend less during recessions. More on that later. Continue Reading…

Embracing Entrepreneurial Wisdom: A Guide to Financing, Funding, and Starting Your Business with Podcasts

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Phil Bliss (on left) interviewing Brad Krieger (right)

By Philip Bliss

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Starting a business can be both exhilarating and daunting. Aspiring entrepreneurs often find themselves navigating through a sea of uncertainties, seeking guidance on financing, funding, and launching their ventures successfully. In today’s digital age, podcasts have emerged as powerful platforms for disseminating invaluable insights and wisdom.

One such beacon of knowledge in the Canadian entrepreneurial landscape is the “#1 Podcast for Entrepreneurs in Canada” by canadaspodcast.com. In this blog post, we explore the profound importance of listening to entrepreneurs’ words of wisdom and advice, and how this podcast can become your go-to resource in your journey towards building a successful business in Canada.

Empowerment through Experience

The beauty of a podcast hosted by successful entrepreneurs is that it provides you with firsthand accounts of their experiences, challenges, and triumphs. These entrepreneurs have weathered the storm, overcome obstacles, and tasted success. By listening to their stories, you gain insight into the real-world dynamics of business, which textbooks and theories often fail to capture. Their experiences can empower you with the knowledge to avoid common pitfalls, make informed decisions, and stay motivated through tough times.

Insights into Financing and Funding

Financing and funding are critical components of starting and sustaining a business. Entrepreneurs featured on Canada’s #1 Podcast share their journeys of securing capital, whether it be through angel investors, family investment, venture capitalists, or traditional loans. Their advice can enlighten you on creating a compelling business plan, preparing a convincing pitch, and choosing the right financing options for your venture’s unique needs. Additionally, understanding the financial landscape in Canada and how to navigate it effectively can significantly improve your chances of success. Continue Reading…

Low Volatility Investing: Benefitting from Alternative Weighting

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By Chris Heakes, CFA, M.Fin., BMO Global Asset Management

(Sponsor Content)

Most investors look to equities to provide the primary growth component of portfolios, and for good reason: the S&P 500 has returned an average 10.9% annualized over the past 50 years[1]. However, while the attraction of long-term growth is there, the drawback, as most investors know, is risk and volatile markets, such as the collapse of the Information Technology (IT) bubble in 2001, or the great financial crisis of 2008.

What is Low Volatility Investing?

Low Volatility investing is an approach which attempts to achieve the benefits of equity investing (upside return), while mitigating the inherent risk within equities.  A soundly constructed low volatility Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) will generally achieve this by overweighting defensive stocks (using some measurement of risk – at BMO, low volatility ETFs use Beta as a measure) as well as overweighting traditionally defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities, while underweighting more aggressive stocks and sectors, such as Energy and Materials.

By embracing a methodology that is different from broad indexes, low volatility strategies fall into a category of ETFs we call Factor ETFs or Smart Beta ETFs (the terms are interchangeable). In this sense Low Volatility strategies seek to preserve more capital (relative to broad markets) when markets are volatile, due to the weighting to defensive stocks.

How do Low Volatility ETFs perform?

Classic finance theory supposed a relationship between return and risk.  All things being equal, an investor should get more return for assuming more risk (and vice versa).  However, the concept of the “low volatility anomaly” comes from the empirical observation that this relationship doesn’t hold true in practice. Lower-risk stocks generally have as good, if not better, returns than higher-risk stocks.

How can this be the case? Investors, or perhaps more accurately, traders, often chase higher-risk stocks, which to their detriment often don’t live up to expectations.  No better example is there than the recent meme-stock behaviour, where a social-media organized horde chased returns on various small-cap stocks, in the often misguided “shoot for the moon.” Low volatility investing is the opposite of meme-stock investing. It’s about winning by not losing. Batting for singles and doubles, but not going for home runs and striking out.  Keeping the ball in the fairway … and on and on.  A good low volatility strategy can deliver the benefits of equity investing over the long period, while also providing better cover and portfolio protection, when the markets aren’t working.

It’s beyond the scope of this blog post to get into the plethora of academic research around the low volatility anomaly, but for those interested readers, see an article linked on the CFA website.

What are the risks of low volatility investing?

Simply put, the different weighting methodology can both work for, and against, the investor, particularly in the short term.  Higher-risk stocks will enjoy their days in the sun at times, and low volatility investors may lag, in these exuberant style markets. Like other factor investing strategies (value, momentum, etc.), performance is generally best analyzed on the long term, which is to say through business cycles. Lastly, low volatility strategies tend to be overweight more interest-rate sensitive stocks, so in periods of interest rate increases, this may pose a headwind to the overall strategy. Continue Reading…

I Will Teach You to be Rich (Review)

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Amazon.ca

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to Financial Independence Hub

 

There aren’t many financial gurus willing to call out financial companies by name for their bad behaviour, but Ramit Sethi is one of them.  In his book I Will Teach You to be Rich, he promises “a 6-week program that works,” and he includes advice on which banks to use and which to avoid.

The book is aimed at American Millennials; Canadians will learn useful lessons as well, but much of the specific advice would have to be translated to Canadian laws, banking system, and account types.  The book’s style is irreverent, which helps to keep the pages turning.

It may seem impossible to fix a person’s finances in only 6 weeks, but this is how long Sethi says it will take to lay the groundwork for a solid plan and automate it with the right bank accounts and periodic transfers.  The execution of the plan (e.g., eliminating debt or building savings) will take much longer.

Sethi is rare in the financial world because he will say what he really thinks about banks.  “I hate Wells Fargo and Bank of America.”  “These banks are pieces of shit.  They rip you off, charge near-extortionate fees, and use deceptive practices to beat down the average consumer.  Nobody will speak up against them because everyone in the financial world wants to strike a deal with them.  I have zero interest in deals with these banks.”  For the banks he does recommend, “I make no money from these recommendations.  I just want you to avoid getting ripped off.”

People have many reasons why they can’t save and are in debt, but Sethi sees them as just excuses in most cases.  “I don’t have a lot of sympathy for people who complain about their situation in life but do nothing about it.”  “Cynics don’t want results; they want an excuse to not take action.”  He urges readers to “put the excuses aside” and get on with the business of making positive changes.

The Program

The first step in the program is to “Optimize Your Credit Cards.”  I found it interesting that Sethi focused on credit card perks before he covered eliminating credit card debt.  He wants readers to “play offense by using credit cards responsibly and getting as many benefits out of them as possible” instead of “playing defense and avoiding credit cards altogether.”  This approach sets him apart from many other experts on getting out of debt.  While he does teach methods of eliminating debt, his focus is more on building wealth steadily.

The second step is to open “high-interest, low-hassle accounts.”  Interestingly, he wants readers to open a chequing account at one bank and a savings account at another bank.  Among his reasons are that the psychology of a separation between accounts makes us less likely to raid savings.  Some might think opening a savings account is pointless if they have no money to deposit, but Sethi insists that you need to lay the groundwork now for a better future, even if you’ve only got $50 to deposit.

The third step is opening investment accounts.  The author favours very simple investments, such as a Vanguard mutual fund account invested in a target date fund.  “Don’t get fooled by smooth-talking salespeople: You can easily manage your investment account by yourself.”  Unfortunately, Vanguard mutual funds are only available to Americans.  Canadians can find one-fund solutions with certain Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

To create the cash flow to reduce debt and invest, the fourth step is about “conscious spending,” which is “cutting costs mercilessly on the things you don’t love, but spending extravagantly on the things you do.”  Achieving this involves tracking spending in different categories, but not traditional budgeting. Continue Reading…