Inflation

Inflation

Thinking Big on Small Caps

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By Steve Lipper, Senior Investment Strategist, Managing Director, Royce Investment Partners

(Sponsor Content)

Companies with small market capitalization make up one of the more overlooked parts of the global equity markets. This could be attributed to a lack of coverage of their stocks by analysts, but whatever the reasoning, being overlooked creates opportunities for those investors who know where to look among small-cap equities.

Royce Investment Partners has more than 45 years of experience in the small-cap space. Such longevity brings with it a high level of expertise, allowing the firm to build assets under management (AUM) of US$17.6 billion.1

This has been achieved through a combination of specialization in small-cap investments and a commitment to ownership among the firm’s portfolio managers. With an average tenure of 22 years, Royce’s seasoned group of PMs have substantial ownership in the strategies they manage; in fact, 89% of the firm’s assets are in funds where the portfolio manager has invested at least US$1 million themselves.2 In this respect, Royce stands apart from its competitors: 37 asset managers in the U.S. have more than US$5 billion in small-cap assets, but only Royce has more than 95% of its total AUM invested in the space.3

While developing expertise in small-cap investing is complex, the reasoning for specializing in this area is quite simple: quality small-cap companies have been proven to deliver for investors.

In fact, small-cap stocks have consistently provided meaningful outperformance compared to their large-cap counterparts over the long term. Using the MSCI ACWI Small Cap and MSCI ACWI Large Cap indices as proxies, it shows that small caps have delivered higher annual returns over most multi-year time periods (see chart below). In addition, small caps not only provide a much larger set of companies to invest in (approximately four times the amount in large caps), but with valuations that often understate their true worth. This is an important point to consider, especially given some of the pretty elevated valuations in equity markets right now.

 

The opportunities that small-cap stocks present for investors were a key factor in introducing our new strategy for the Canadian retail market, Franklin Royce Global Small Cap Premier Fund.4 Continue Reading…

Sustainable Equity Strategies for a Global Recovery

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Image iStock/Franklin Templeton

By Mel Bucher, Co-Head of Global Distribution, Martin Currie, Edinburgh, UK

(Sponsor Content)

The investment choices we make can have a profound effect on the world around us. Investing according to sustainable principles allows investors to align their environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals with their investing choices.

Also, we believe sustainability can be a driver of long-term portfolio performance. As global equity markets recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, more Canadians want to invest in opportunities available within a wider sustainable context.

One new option is the sustainability investment expertise that Martin Currie brings to Canada.

Martin Currie may be a new name for many Canadian retail investors. Our firm is a Specialty Investment Manager of Franklin Templeton, based in Edinburgh, UK, and we focus on actively managing portfolios of the listed public equities of companies that generate long-term value from sustainable ESG polices. Our ESG framework helps to identify any material ESG issues related to a company’s cash flow, balance sheet and profit/loss account over time and whether these ESG issues could affect value creation. Having ESG analysis fully embedded in the research process enables our investment teams to uncover material issues.

Martin Currie’s leadership in ESG was recognized with the UN’s Principles for Responsible Investment A+ rating for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

This article considers our sustainable investing strategies in global equities and emerging markets equities, both of which are now available to Canadians.

A global equity strategy in a global recovery

We expect the strong comeback of the global equity market to be sustained under fairly benign inflation conditions and with asset prices supported by monetary policy. Our global equity strategy is well positioned in this environment.

The Franklin Martin Currie Global Equity strategy invests in companies with exposure to three established growth megatrends:

1.      Demographic change (e.g., aging population, urbanization, healthcare)

2.      Resource scarcity (e.g., electric vehicles, alternative energy, infrastructure)

3.      The future of technology (e.g., outsourcing, cloud computing, security).

We believe these themes will drive long-term structural growth in the global economy. The portfolio seeks diversified holdings with exposures to the megatrends to capture growth.

Global equities for growth, at the right price

The portfolio holds 20-40 stocks of sustainable, well-managed growth companies that dominate their respective industries and have high barriers to entry. They hold pricing power and face a low risk of disruption. These firms have potential for long-term structural growth and value creation. Companies undergo a systematic assessment of their industry, company, portfolio and governance/sustainability risks.

These equities may not be cheap, so the portfolio managers are highly selective about acquiring companies at the right valuations. The goal is to find equities that combine strong industry, financial and governance attributes at the right price.

This global equity strategy is now available to Canadians through the Franklin Martin Currie Global Equity Fund and Franklin Martin Currie Sustainable Global Equity Active ETF (FGSG). The mutual fund’s U.S. equivalent is a 4-star Morningstar-rated fund* in the International Unconstrained Equity category.  

Unique Approach to Portfolio Analysis and Construction

Martin Currie’s sustainable emerging markets strategy Continue Reading…

How (In)credible is the Transitory Inflation argument?

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By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If there’s one thing we’ve all learned in the past two years, it is that central bankers mean business: both literally and figuratively.  In other words, when central bankers say they ‘have our backs’ in both extending the business cycle by promoting fuller employment and doing so without causing meaningful inflation, we should take them at their word.

As such, central bankers “mean business” literally (meaning they will promote business interests) and figuratively (meaning they are serious, determined and dedicated to their mission).  Then again, for the past two years, those two objectives have been mostly aligned.  What if new circumstances were to make them mutually exclusive?

Looking south of the border, we had a modest yield curve inversion in the spring of 2019 and within a few weeks, then President Trump applied some considerable political pressure (something arms-length central bankers are supposed to be immune to) in order to get the federal reserve to cut rates, which they did in three successive meetings that autumn.

At the time, inflation was benign and tellingly, unemployment was at its lowest level in a generation.  In other words, by any reasonable standard, the fed had done a superb job to that point and no interventions or adjustments seemed necessary.  Despite this, there were changes and a purportedly imminent recession was averted.  Or not. After all, there’s no reliable way of knowing what might have happened had rates not been lowered that autumn.

These days, the narrative coming from central banks is that the recent spate of above-average inflation is ‘transitory,’ meaning it will likely normalize around more traditional levels once the artificially low data of the post COVID year (basically Q2 and Q3 of 2020) falls out of the data set.

Skeptical of the Central Bank line on inflation

Of course, no one knows for sure if the inflation we’re seeing now is genuinely transitory or the harbinger of a more prolonged period of elevated prices. There’s a Chinese proverb that states, “to be uncertain is to be uncomfortable, but to be certain is ridiculous.”  I’m not for a moment suggesting that inflation is or is not transitory. Rather, I am respectfully skeptical of the central bank line.

It may indeed be true that the inflation fear will dissipate into nothingness before the end of the year. Then again, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland has boasted that the fiscal support offered to Canadians over the past 15 months can act as a sort of ‘pre-loaded stimulus’ that will keep the economy humming long after the government cheques stop coming.  What if Freeland is understating the impact?

Specifically, what if Canadians are so euphoric about the economy re-opening that they start buying things and experiences like never before?  Wouldn’t that kind of spike in purchasing activity risk a spike (or at least prolongation) in inflation?

Higher for Longer

There are some who think central banks are managing expectations about inflation being higher for longer to buy time and provide cover for an anticipated period of deliberate bank inactivity.  In essence, what if central banks don’t act to control high and prolonged inflation because doing so (i.e., raising rates significantly and sooner than expected) would destroy both the economic recovery and the bull markets so many are currently enjoying? Continue Reading…

Equal Weight Indexing during Economic Recovery

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By Hussein Rashid, Invesco Canada

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

2020 was a year for the history books: especially from a finance perspective. With COVID-19 ripping throughout the globe, we saw equity markets decline rapidly as several countries closed their borders.

At the same time, however, we saw some companies flourish as people spent more time at home. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google1 shined brightly and became larger than ever before. Central banks globally introduced measures that aided this appreciation by reducing rates to record lows, fueling most growth-oriented stocks upward at a rapid pace.

However, over three months into 2021, we are now seeing signs of recovery towards normalcy, with continued supportive measures by many central banks and governments, along with a growing number of people being vaccinated.

So, what does that look like from a market leadership perspective? As the recovery unfolds and economic activity accelerates, we would expect market leadership to align with that of the left column of the chart above.

We have already seen a steepening yield curve with longer-dated bond rates rising:  this could temper the strong run up in growth-oriented stocks. Near the end of last year, the move from growth stocks to more value-oriented cyclical stocks, and the move from large-cap stocks to small/mid-cap stocks started to occur. Many of these stocks, especially names in the S&P 500®, will tend to benefit more from the economy and society reopening. Continue Reading…

Projected Inflation and investment returns

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FP Canada issues guidelines every year to help financial planners make long-term financial projections for their clients that are objective and unbiased. The guidelines include assumptions to use for projected inflation and investment returns, wage growth, and borrowing rates. It also includes “probability of survival” tables that show the life expectancy at various ages.

The 2021 Projection Assumption Guidelines were of particular interest because, well, a lot has happened since the 2020 guidelines were published last spring. How should we project inflation and investment returns as we get to the other side of the pandemic and economies start opening up again?

Will we see sustained higher inflation? Should we expect any returns at all from bonds or cash? Should we lower our expectations for future stock market returns?

Remember, these are long-term projections (10+ years). That’s very different than guessing the direction of the stock market for 2021, or predicting whether we’ll see a short burst of inflation in late 2021, early 2022.

The inflation assumption of 2.0% was made by combining the assumptions from the following sources (each weighted at 25%):

  • the average of the inflation assumptions for 30 years (2019 to 2048) used in the most recent QPP actuarial report
  • the average of the inflation assumptions for 30 years (2019 to 2048) used in the most recent CPP actuarial report
  • results of the 2020 FP Canada/IQPF survey. The reduced average was used where the highest and lowest value were removed
  • current Bank of Canada target inflation rate

The result of this calculation is rounded to the nearest 0.10%

Projections for equity returns were set by combining assumptions from the following sources:

  • the average of the assumptions for 30 years (2019 to 2048) used in the most recent QPP actuarial report
  • the average of the assumptions for 30 years (2019 to 2048) used in the most recent CPP actuarial report
  • results of the 2020 FP Canada/IQPF survey. The reduced average was used where the highest and lowest value were removed
  • historic returns over the 50 years ending the previous December 31st (adjusted for inflation).

Equity return assumptions do not include fees.

Unlikely that bonds can replicate their projections of last 50 years

Projections for short-term investments and Canadian fixed-income returns included the assumptions from QPP and CPP, the results of the 2020 FP Canada/IQPF survey, but the 50-year historical average rate was removed in 2020 as a data source. This makes sense given that interest rates were significantly higher than they are now and so it would be impossible for bonds to replicate the performance of the last 50 years. Continue Reading…