Inflation

Inflation

G&M: 3 programs to chart your Retirement income & spending

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The Globe & Mail newspaper has just published a column by me describing our family’s experience with three Canadian retirement planning programs available to consumers. You can find the full article by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Three online programs to help plan out your finances in Retirement.

These programs vary in price from $85 to more than $800 but just a single insight from any one of them will likely recap the modest fees. I found all three (or four actually) quite useful, seeing as I have already turned 65 and my wife Ruth will follow suit next summer, at which point she too will abandon full-time employment for the kind of semi-retirement or financial independence that this website focuses on.

Some of the planning packages are designed for financial advisors to work with their clients but all can be obtained by individual consumers. They are all strong on the financial side and the first step with any of them is to enter data into your personal computer (PC or Mac, or any device via the cloud). You’ll need your brokerage statements, pension benefits statements if any, tax returns and a good grip on your monthly expenses, which means credit-card and bank statements, and maybe charitable contributions and any other regular expenses not gathered by the foregoing.

Just as important, you need to have at least a rough picture of what your future golden years will be spent doing once you’re no longer tethered to full-time employment.

Decumulation can be more challenging that Wealth Accumulation

All these programs are good at projecting your future retirement income and taxes, factoring in the many moving parts of CPP payments, OAS clawbacks and the other minutae that make the “Decumulation” phase of retirement planning perhaps even more challenging than what the long Wealth accumulation process was.  As Retirement Navigator creator Doug Dahmer (a regular contributor to the Hub) often says, tax is perhaps the single biggest expense in Retirement.

There’s an art to deciding which income sources to drawn down upon first (registered, TFSAs, non-registered), or to deciding whether to defer corporate or government pensions till 70, while drawing on savings in the meantime.

But it’s not just about money: these programs help you identify how you’ll navigate the three major phases of retirement: the early “go-go” years where you may indulge in expensive travel and other hobbies; the “slow-go” years where you pull in your oars a bit and stick closer to home; and finally the “no-go” years where one or both members of a couple start to confront their mortality and deal with rising healthcare costs and perhaps a shift into a retirement or assisted living facility.

Here’s the capsule summary of the strengths and weaknesses of each. The highlighted text in Red will take you to the respective websites: Continue Reading…

Investing: An amazing concept that deserves more love

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By Scott Ronalds

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I love Google. Want to know how many grapes are in a bottle of wine? Google it. Need directions from Granville Island to Gastown? Google Map it. Want to watch James Corden’s latest carpool karaoke? YouTube it (Google’s parent company owns YouTube). A world of information is at your fingertips.

A friend of mine adores Nike. He can’t get enough of their shoes, loves their style and innovation, and thinks their marketing is brilliant. He may even have a swoosh tattooed on him somewhere.

Whether it’s Google, Nike, Starbucks, Apple or others, there are a lot of impressive companies out there doing remarkable things. And the really cool thing is that we can own a small piece of many of them. Think about this for a minute. Any individual can buy shares in a publicly-traded company and participate in its growth and success (or failure, as it may be). Investing is an amazing thing. So why do so many people ignore, fear, or just put off investing? (Reports suggest people are sitting on huge amounts of cash.) It’s a question I ask myself all the time.

Investing is simply about owning pieces of companies

I think I know some of the reasons. Investing is risky. But it’s also become confusing and scary: which makes it prime fodder for the media. Corporate and economic figures are dissected with minutiae. Stock prices are updated every millisecond. The lexicon can be baffling (the Steadyhand Dictionary can help you make sense of it). Complex algorithms and trading strategies have emerged. The use of derivatives and leverage have amplified the risks. Unethical practices have been exposed. The whole system has been called rigged. Continue Reading…

Thinking about taking a flyer on cannabis stocks or blockchain? Follow these guidelines.

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By Scott Ronalds

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

 
“I’m thinking of taking some money out of my portfolio with you guys to buy some shares in a blockchain-related start-up. Am I crazy?”

 

We were asked a question along these lines recently, and I suspect we’ll hear it again, whether it’s blockchain, bitcoin, cannabis, space tourism or whatever new investment opportunity seems exciting. Our answer might surprise you.

No, you’re not crazy. We don’t necessarily think it’s a bad thing to invest a portion of your portfolio in an unconventional, illiquid, or even highly speculative investment. You can learn a lot from it. We do have a few caveats, however. Most importantly, you need to have a high tolerance for risk and should be mentally prepared to lose everything you invest, because you just might. Below are a few other things to consider.

Limit it to 5% of your portfolio

Five per cent isn’t a magic number, but curbing a risky investment to 5% or less of your total portfolio will limit the damage if things go south. True, it will also limit your potential upside, but it’s a prudent trade-off. You don’t want to put your retirement plans and future standard of living at risk by investing too much of your portfolio in an adventure.

Have a plan

This seems obvious, but we find it’s often overlooked. Let’s use bitcoin as an example. Say you invest in the cryptocurrency when its value is $16,000. What will you do if it falls to $8,000? Or if it rises to $24,000? Do you have a floor and ceiling in mind for how much you’d be willing to lose or gain before making a difficult decision with your investment? Bitcoin is a great example of the hyper volatility that comes with speculative investments. You need to be prepared for it, and you need to have a plan.

Consider how it will change the risk profile of your portfolio

If your target breakdown between stocks and bonds is 60/40 and you want to carve off 5% to invest in a start-up, for example, you should be taking the money from the stock portion of your portfolio so that you don’t inadvertently increase your overall level of risk. If you’re venturing into investments that are higher up the risk spectrum, you shouldn’t fund them by cashing in your safer stuff (e.g. cash and bonds).

Further, if you hit the jackpot on a speculative investment, it will comprise a larger portion of your portfolio, which means you should think about reducing the level of risk in the rest of your accounts to keep your overall balance between growth and safety in check. On the other hand, if your investment tanks, your overall portfolio may have less exposure to growth assets than your plan calls for. In this case, it would be appropriate to increase your exposure to stocks. After a bad experience with a high-risk investment, this can be hard to do.

Read the fine print on fees and redemption clauses

If it’s a product or offering that you’re considering, rather than an individual security, be sure to do your homework on fees. Continue Reading…

Subsidizing China’s Superpower aspirations

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By Jeff Weniger, WisdomTree Investments
Special to the Financial Independence Hub
 
Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the potentially multitrillion-dollar network of roads, rails, pipelines and other infrastructure across Eurasia, risks saddling unstable governments with unpayable debt. Because of the IMF’s concerns, it plans to fund the China-IMF Capacity Development Center (CICDC) to train the Chinese to minimize the headaches in this century’s Marshall Plan. If all goes according to plan, the Belt and Road Initiative will connect land- and sea-based trading routes to cement China as the center of global commerce in a decade or two.

While China appears to be ascending into world superpower status sometime in the coming decades, a $100 investment in “global” equities allocates just $3.51 to the country if we track an index like the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI).1 That’s not far from Canada’s weight, and it seems remarkably low for a country that is going head-to-head with the U.S. on the global stage.

It was only last year that MSCI added Chinese A-shares, companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, to its MSCI Emerging Markets Index. That is late for an economy whose size surpassed the U.S. in 2014, at least on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis (see figure 1).

Figure 1: China & U.S. Share of Global GDP

China and U.S. Share of Global GDP

Covering China, wherever the listing

While some Chinese companies are available only in Shanghai or Shenzhen, others are listed solely in Hong Kong. Still others have American depositary receipts (ADRs) or are traded in Singapore.

Our TSX-listed exchange-traded fund, WisdomTree ICBCCS S&P China 500 Index ETF (CHNA.B), tracks the ICBCCS S&P China 500 Index, covering stocks in all those bourses. Its index is currently over 50% in local A-shares. MSCI, by contrast, is only starting to add A-shares securities up to a 5% inclusion factor in 2018, a small starting point. It’s high time China has its own S&P 500, especially if President Xi Jinping has anything to say about it.

Going Out

Deng Xiaoping, ruler of China from 1978 to 1989, famously advised his country to “hide your strength, bide your time.” China’s great goal for the last four decades — development, development, development — was to happen quietly, with fingers crossed that the U.S., Japan and Western Europe wouldn’t get too frightened. Continue Reading…

Thinking about retirement? Here are 2 two key income sources to expect

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By Scott Ronalds

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you’re at the point where you’re starting to think seriously about retirement, you’re probably wondering how much money you’re going to need to enjoy life after work, and where it’s going to come from.

Everybody’s wants and needs are different, so there’s no magic number as to how much you should have saved by a certain age. Plus, the face of retirement has changed significantly, with many people working part-time into their seventies and eighties, and others hanging it up in their fifties.

That said, by making a few assumptions, we can give you a rough estimate of what you can expect from government sources and your portfolio when you decide to retire.

The basics

To keep it simple, we’ll use a scenario which assumes you’re 65 and plan to fully retire from your job this year. A few other assumptions:

  • You don’t have a pension plan with your employer.
  • You’re eligible for full Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS) benefits.
  • You have an RSP that you plan to convert to a RIF this year, and you plan to take the minimum required payments (which will start next year) from your account. (Note: you aren’t required to convert your RSP to a RIF until the calendar year you turn 71, but you can convert at any age before 71 if you choose).
  • You don’t have any other investments or sources of income.

First off, let’s look at what you’ll get from the government. You can expect monthly CPP payments of roughly $1,114 ($13,370/year) and OAS payments of about $578 ($6,936/year). In total, you can plan on collecting about $1,690 a month, or just over $20,000 a year. These amounts are indexed to inflation. You can decide to defer taking CPP benefits until you’re older, or take them earlier, in which case your benefits will be increased or decreased, respectively. You can also defer taking OAS to receive a larger monthly benefit.

More than likely, this isn’t going to cover your living expenses or fund the lifestyle you want in retirement. So you’re going to need to rely on your portfolio to cover the shortfall.

RIFing it

Converting your RSP to a RIF means your minimum withdrawal next year will be equivalent to 4.0% of your portfolio’s year-end market value. This figure is based on your age, 65, at the end of the current calendar year. Continue Reading…

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