Longevity & Aging

No doubt about it: at some point we’re neither semi-retired, findependent or fully retired. We’re out there in a retirement community or retirement home, and maybe for a few years near the end of this incarnation, some time to reflect on it all in a nursing home. Our Longevity & Aging category features our own unique blog posts, as well as blog feeds from Mark Venning’s ChangeRangers.com and other experts.

Avoiding the big retirement mistakes

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | October 14, 2025

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

In a few posts on my site over the years, I’ve shared some big retirement mistakes to avoid. This becomes even more important now that we’re entering a new chapter in our lives: semi-retirement / work on own terms.

Are we ready? Can we avoid some big investing and related retirement mistakes that experts share?

In that spirit as part of new pillar post I hope to update annually and anchor my progress around, here are some of the ways I hope to avoid some big retirement mistakes.

I certainly won’t be perfect but I’ll do my best based on this infographic and more below:

20-common-investing-mistakes - Visual Capitalist November 2023

Attribution/thanks to Visual Capitalist. @VisualCap

1. Expecting too much

I believe I/we have reasonable long-term return and inflation assumptions. Our projections include at the time of this post:

5% annualized returns from a 90% equity/stock + 10% cash/cash equivalents portfolio (excluding my small workplace pension), and
3% sustained inflation.
Some go-go spending years from now until age 79/80 give or take.

I’ll link to my latest Financial Independence Budget update at the end of this post to support any planning assumptions you might have.

What are your key assumptions?

2. No investment goals / 3. Not diversifying

I think we should be good:

We remain invested in our Canadian and U.S. individual stocks near-term, although I could see a near-term day in 2025 or 2026 whereby I sell off all remaining/handful of U.S. individual stocks we own and just put all ex-Canada stocks into a low-cost ETF like my favourite to date: XAW. I would however keep my existing 25 Canadian stocks for income and growth for now; to avoid capital gains in our taxable accounts.
We are not focused on short-term returns since we remain 90% equities. That said, short-term, we are hopefully setting aside enough cash/cash equivalents in 2025 to draw down said cash in 2026 and 2027. Planning for 2028+ has not started yet but we have time to organize ourselves …
We have our long-term drawdown plan: NRT which means a mix of living off dividends from our Non-Registered Accounts (N) with corporation withdrawals, drawing down our RRSPs (R) over time, and therefore leaving our TFSAs (T) until the end.

Our hybrid investing approach using a mix of stocks and ETFs is not going to change:

We own a number of Canadian dividend-paying stocks (with some U.S. stocks for now) for income and growth.
We own a few low-cost ETFs for extra diversification.

4. Focusing on the short-term

Fail!

I’m looking forward to the short term!

We are looking forward to our semi-retirement years and seeing what opportunities may appear in the coming years. I get what the infographic is saying though.

5. Buying high and selling low

I can’t predict the future, can you?

I’m at a point in my investing life whereby if I have the money, sure, I will invest more but I don’t have to.

Besides, when you index invest, the best price is today’s price. The stock market is a forward looking tool.

“Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.” – Warren Buffett

6. Trading too much

Nothing really to worry about here. I’m no longer 22-years-old and into penny stocks on this list!

Here are other ways to kill your retirement plan:

7. Paying too much in fees

No longer a problem via owning many individual stocks; no trading, I only do some periodic buying and we maintain low-cost ETFs for growth.

8. Focusing too much on taxes

In other articles on my site about investing mistakes, I’ve seen some expert concerns about dividend income in a taxable account and at the same time, I’ve seen the same experts say not to let the taxation tail wave the investing dog per se.

Mixed messages for sure.

When it comes to dividends, I continue to remain on record that dividends are not the be-all, end-all but work for us especially in our non-registered accounts in that:

any company that does not pay out a dividend, may alternatively provide other forms of shareholder returns: in the form of future capital gains, stock price increases, share buybacks, other.

This means dividends aren’t everything and never have been but they can be very good.

So I do like them. I will spend them. I hope to get more of them over time!

9. Not reviewing regularly

We review our portfolio every few months, in detail. We are good.

10. Misunderstanding risk

I like this one. I feel market volatility and risk while related are not the same.

Volatility:

Consider this like the price swings – how much an asset value fluctuates in price over time.
High volatility means prices swing up and down sharply, while low volatility suggests a smoother, more predictable up and down ride.

Risk:

Possibility of losing money over time, with many specific types of risk: stock market risk, credit risk and housing market risk and so on.
Risk can be framed as short-term or long-term, like “there is a risk of cash losing out to inflation over the next 2 years.”

Volatility isn’t the same as risk but they are related. Some stocks in some sectors might be highly volatile, like tech-stocks, but not all stocks nor all tech-stocks may carry the same risk.

11. Not knowing your performance

I monitor our portfolio performance often but I’ve largely given up on detailed benchmarking since it makes no sense to obsess over benchmarking if you are not meeting your objectives.

As long as you are meeting your goals, that’s good. That’s the priority.

Obsessing over a benchmark and feeling the need to meet an index because some expert said it was a good idea, is not.

12. Reacting to the media

Guilty.

I mean, recent tariff wars have been terrible for many reasons. While I have not yet adjusted my portfolio due these wars, I do find all the annexing of Canada rhetoric both very problematic and very concerning.

13. Forgetting about inflation

See above.

I use 3% higher spending per year in my projections.

Is that enough I wonder? You? Continue Reading…

Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate Strategies in Canada

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | October 10, 2025

By Kyle Prevost

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The concept of a safe withdrawal rate (and the 4% rule) is a key planning tool for Canadians of all ages. After all, if you don’t have a general withdrawal plan, how can you know how much you need to save in the first place?

If you have been reading MDJ for years, you already have an idea of how to use a Canadian online broker account to DIY-invest your way to a solid nest egg.

Now you’re planning for retirement (whether it’s 20+ years away or next year) and you’re wondering how to take money out of that nest egg. Perhaps hoping that there is a rule for how much you can take out each year in retirement, and never go broke. That concept is generally referred to as a safe withdrawal rate, and we’ll go into detail on how this works in just a second.

We’ll even look at how to incorporate multiple accounts, such as your TFSA, RRSP, and a non-registered account into your safe withdrawal rate – as well tax rules surrounding the withdrawal of investments from those accounts.

And finally, we’ll seek to answer the question you probably really want answered: How do I turn my nest egg into a usable stream of money that I can depend on and spend as I look forward to retirement?

Surprisingly, when it comes to discussing Canadian safe retirement withdrawal rates, and talking to folks who have retired at all ages, spending their retirement savings represents a massive mental strain for them. I guess (as someone who has never retired or sold investments to pay for retirement) that I always thought that saving for retirement would be the hard part.

Isn’t spending supposed to be more fun than squirreling away?

It turns out that once you get into that savings mindset, it can be hard to flip the switch back to enjoying spending the fruits of your labour. This is especially true for folks who are looking at retirement withdrawal strategies for an early retirement because they are much more likely to have been super-aggressive savers during their time in the workforce.

I didn’t go into the topic of safe withdrawal rates for retirement expecting the topic to be so deep and full of variables! After all, the concept seems simple enough, right?

How much can I take out of my investment portfolio each year, if I need that nest egg to last for 30, 35, 40, or even 50 years?

Is your Retirement Savings on Track?

Each year BMO does a retirement survey that asks Canadians a wide range of questions.

The problem is that most Canadians don’t really understand how their income and expenses will interact in retirement. Are you saving enough? Find out for sure with the first online course for Canadian retirees (click here for more details).

The 4% Retirement Withdrawal Rule

Ok, so let’s maybe start with the rule of thumb that advisors have used when looking at retirement drawdown plans for a while now.

Back in 1994 a financial advisor named William Bengen looked at the last 80 or so years of markets and retirement, did a bunch of math, and arrived at a concept we now call “The 4% rule.”

The basic idea of the 4% retirement withdrawal plan is that someone could safely withdraw 4% of their investment/savings portfolio each year and – assuming a 60/40 or 50/50 split of bonds/stocks in their portfolio – they would never run out of money.

This idea of withdrawing a certain percentage of your portfolio to fund your retirement is called the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR). The math behind this magic 4% figure means that if you have the nice round $1 Million investment portfolio that we all dream of, you could safely pull out $40,000 the first year, and then adjust for inflation and withdraw 4% plus inflation after that. (So if there was 2% inflation between year one and year two, you could now withdraw $40,800.)

Bengen, and another highly influential study took their rule and retroactively applied it to retirees from every single year from 1926 to 1994. They found that nearly 100% of the time (depending on what was in the investment portfolio) people could retire, and withdraw 4% of their portfolio for 30 years of retirement: and not run out of money.

In fact, over half of the time, if retirees followed the 4% rule, they not only didn’t run out of money, they finished life with more money than when they started retirement!

Keep in mind, these authors didn’t worry about OAS or C P P, or a workplace pension, or even the tax implications of different types of withdrawals. They were simply trying to come up with a useful rule of thumb for how much a person could safely withdraw from their retirement portfolio.

What the 4% Rule Means for your Magic Retirement Portfolio Number

If you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio to fund your retirement, then the simple math tells us that if you can accumulate 25x your annual retirement budget, you no longer have to work.

Here’s the breakdown:

Jane looks at her budget and realizes that once she retires she will have a lot less spending demands. She carefully weighs the numbers and believes she’ll need $40,000 per year to quit her 9-to-5.
Consequently, Jane needs the magical “4% of her portfolio” to equal $40,000 per year.
For a 4% withdrawal to equal $40,000, Jane will need a $1,000,000 portfolio.
If Jane reassesses and realizes she needs $60,000 per year in retirement, Jane would need 25 times $60,000 (because 4% goes into 100% twenty-five times) which is $1.5 Million.
Jane might not need anywhere close to $1.5M if she intends to do a little part-time work in retirement, and is willing to use some math + research strategies to help herself out a bit when it comes to managing her nest egg! But more on that later…

4% Safe Withdrawal Rate for Retirement: Potential Problems

Up until the 4% rule became a thing, when financial advisors were asked about safe withdrawal rates, the only thing they could really say is, “it depends.” Continue Reading…

Mark Seed on the 2% Retirement Rule

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | October 6, 2025

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Well hello!

Welcome to some new Weekend Reading related to an article I read on not 4% rules, not 3% rules but the 2% retirement rule.

The 2% Retirement Rule

“The best retirement withdrawal strategy requires flexibility and course corrections depending on the market environment, inflation and your personal spending levels. No one actually follows through with this stuff like it shows on a spreadsheet.”

These are statements that really reasonated with me from Ben Carlson’s post entitled Why the 4% Rule is More Like the 2% Rule.

I desire flexibility related to our retirement income spending needs.
I want to use an approach that enables course corrections to happen easily.
I have never lived my life in a spreadsheet yet some tracking is necessary.

The 2% rule occurs when many retirees who even worry about the 4% rule constantly underspend from their portfolio from fear of outliving their money.

As Ben writes:

“There is a psychological hurdle that exists with some people because you worry about outliving your money, inflation, high healthcare costs, sequence of return risk or something coming out of left field.”

This also speaks to me.

It will be interesting to see how I combat these fears as my wife enters retirement next month and I consider retirement myself from current part-time work in 2026. Lack of a steady paycheque will be new territory to us.

Things we are considering for our retirement income spending as early retirees at least:

Be flexible with our spending. If markets are good/positive, we’ll consider spending more. If markets are unfavourable, then we’ll spend a bit less. Spending a bit less means cutting back on travel plans.
Keep a cash wedge at all times. Any money needed for spending in the next 1-2 years will be maintained in cash/cash equivalents. This way, when market corrections happen that I can’t see coming, we are ready to cover spending in advance.
While we don’t budget (I recently wrote about that) we do track our spending and we’ll continue to do so. This will ensure we are spending money on things we value and/or are aligned to our values.

Retirement will be uncharted waters for us. My wife begins her journey next month. Our psychological and emotional hurdles when it comes to spending money without two steady paycheques will begin very soon: it will interesting to see and feel how we manage that.

I’ll keep you posted.

Other than 1, 2, 3 above, what other advice do you have for me? Words of wisdom from folks that have been there, done that?

Retired Money: Are pricey U.S. stock valuations a threat to new Retirees? Plus David Chilton on retiree market timing

Posted By Jonathan Chevreau | October 1, 2025

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the currently near record high valuations of U.S. stocks and the risks that may pose to those in the Retirement Risk Zone. Full column can be accessed by clicking on the highlighted headline: Why retirement planners are getting defensive.

Retirement Club co-founder Dale Roberts recently posted a typical anxious link to a Globe & Mail column by Dr. Norman Rothery, (CFA) which suggested the current environment of Trump-inspired Tariffs and global Trade Wars, are causing plenty of anxiety for this group.

In the piece posted under Managing Risk in Retirement – and headlined With today’s market, investors close to retirement face precarious times – Rothery said investors on the cusp of retirement are “facing peril from a combination of the unusually lofty U.S. stock market and political uncertainty that’s disrupting world trade.”

U.S. stocks trading at “worrying levels”

The U.S. stock market is “trading at worrying levels,” based on several Value factors, Rothery said: the S&P 500 Index is “trading at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (developed by Robert Shiller) near 39, which is above its peak of 33 in 1929 and it is approaching its top of 44 in late 1999, based on monthly data. Similarly the index’s price-to-sales ratio is approaching its 1999 high. A broader composite measure that includes many different market factors indicates that the U.S. market’s valuation is at record levels. “

Rothery, who also publishes StingyInvestor.com, concluded that it’s “likely that the U.S. stock market will generate unusually poor average real returns over the next decade or so.” Unfortunately, the U.S. stock market now represents about 65% of the world’s market by market capitalization based on its weight in the MSCI All-Country World Index at the end of August. So if the U.S. market flops, “It’ll likely take the rest of the world with it – at least temporarily,” Rothery cautioned.

This could impact recent retirees just beginning to draw down portfolios, due to “sequence of returns risk.” That means that those in the so-called Retirement Risk Zone who suffer early losses could down the road be in danger of outliving their savings. Rothery also reference the famous 4% Rule of financial planner and author William Bengen: the theory that investors in a 55/40/5 portfolio should be able to sustain retirement savings for 30 years provided the annual “SafeMax” withdrawal not exceed 4% a year (actually 4.7%) after adjusting for inflation. Bengen just released a new book titled A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More, which the Retired Money column plans to review next month.

What recent Retirees can do to lower their risk

Retirement Club members anxiously posed questions on the related chat room about whether they should be moving to cash and bonds, gold or other alternatives to U.S. stocks. To this, Dale Roberts – who also runs his own Cutthecrapinvesting blog – warned against getting too defensive but agreed a move to a 70% fixed income/30% stocks allocation might work for some nervous early retirees. Personally, he has trimmed back on his US growth stock exposure and added to defensive ETF sectors like consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. He also mentioned a US equity ETF trading in Canadian dollars: XDU.T

Advisors and their clients suffer from Optimist bias

Advisor John De Goey came to a similar cautious stance in a recent (Sept 12) speech at the MoneyShow in Toronto, archived here on YouTube. Titled Bullshift and Misguided beliefs (see this recent Hub blog) De Goey expanded on his usual themes of advisor bullishness and complacent investors, also articulated in his book Bullshift. Continue Reading…

Bullshift and Misguided Beliefs

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | September 24, 2025

John De Goey, a financial advisor and portfolio manager with Designed Securities, and long-time commentator on the financial services industry, was a keynote speaker at The Money Show recently held at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Author of the book ‘Bullshift – How optimism bias threatens your finances’ (Dundurn Press, Toronto, 2023) and host of the popular podcast Make Better Wealth Decisions, De Goey delivered a presentation called Bullshift and Misguided Beliefs.

‘Bullshift,’ the term De Goey has coined, refers to his view about how the financial services industry makes people feel bullish in order to do the industry’s bidding. To make his point, he noted full-page ads appearing in such publications as The Globe and Mail; one of them ran under the headline ‘Be bullish.’

As for misguided beliefs, De Goey says there is ample evidence that Canadian mutual fund registrants believe things which are patently untrue. To illustrate the latter, he referred to Brandolini’s Law.

Alberto Brandolini was an Italian programmer who developed the term in 2013 and his rule goes like this: The amount of energy required to refute BS is an order of magnitude bigger than what was needed to produce it in the first place. Or, put another way, it compares the considerable effort needed to debunk misinformation to the relative ease in creating that misinformation.

American writer and humourist Mark Twain had a take on this at a much earlier time, and De Goey cited that. Said Twain: “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” The point beyond all this, said De Goey, is that people must unlearn what they think they already know. No easy task.

His presentation at The Money Show covered a number of topics including:

The difference between misinformation (an honest mistake) and disinformation (saying something that is deliberately false), and how to unlearn the latter and think for yourself.
How behavioural economics and social psychology affect your investing decisions.
How the industry uses motivated reasoning and tribalism as opposed to critical thinking and evidence.
Why 90% of our financial decisions are based on emotions, not logical thinking.
Why governments and financial advisors like optimism over realism.

De Goey, always a student of history, observed that the market is 30% more expensive now than it was in 1929 just before the stock-market crash that led to the Great Depression. He mentioned the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 and their catastrophic impact on the U.S. economy, not to mention worldwide economy, and compared this to today’s on-and-off tariffs coming out of the Trump White House. He also noted recent credit downgrades and their effect on the U.S., and, of course, the very real pain of the tariffs which he believes will be much worse in the fourth quarter of 2025. What’s more, De Goey says this will be accompanied by higher inflation.

Bear market looming?

De Goey said the current bull market is “taking its final bow” and the bear market is “waiting in the wings.” In fact, he warned that gains made over the past six years could be entirely wiped out in the next four years if the historical regression to the mean for CAPE occurs. For those who are retired or nearing retirement, this would be devastating news indeed.

One of De Goey’s pet peeves – ‘optimism bias’ – refers to a) people thinking the good times will continue despite blatant warning signs, and b) the very human sentiment that bad things happen but only to other people. Not true, says De Goey. The trouble, he says, is that optimism can sometimes put you in trouble.

Normally, a presentation about money, economics and investing doesn’t get into wisdom imparted by such luminaries as Mark Twain, but De Goey didn’t stop there. He also took a page from Carl Sagan, notably, his 1997 book ‘The Demon-Haunted World. Said Sagan: “If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” Continue Reading…