No doubt about it: at some point we’re neither semi-retired, findependent or fully retired. We’re out there in a retirement community or retirement home, and maybe for a few years near the end of this incarnation, some time to reflect on it all in a nursing home. Our Longevity & Aging category features our own unique blog posts, as well as blog feeds from Mark Venning’s ChangeRangers.com and other experts.
Welcome to some new Weekend Reading related to an article I read on not 4% rules, not 3% rules but the 2% retirement rule.
The 2% Retirement Rule
“The best retirement withdrawal strategy requires flexibility and course corrections depending on the market environment, inflation and your personal spending levels. No one actually follows through with this stuff like it shows on a spreadsheet.”
I desire flexibility related to our retirement income spending needs.
I want to use an approach that enables course corrections to happen easily.
I have never lived my life in a spreadsheet yet some tracking is necessary.
The 2% rule occurs when many retirees who even worry about the 4% rule constantly underspend from their portfolio from fear of outliving their money.
As Ben writes:
“There is a psychological hurdle that exists with some people because you worry about outliving your money, inflation, high healthcare costs, sequence of return risk or something coming out of left field.”
This also speaks to me.
It will be interesting to see how I combat these fears as my wife enters retirement next month and I consider retirement myself from current part-time work in 2026. Lack of a steady paycheque will be new territory to us.
Things we are considering for our retirement income spending as early retirees at least:
Be flexible with our spending. If markets are good/positive, we’ll consider spending more. If markets are unfavourable, then we’ll spend a bit less. Spending a bit less means cutting back on travel plans.
Keep a cash wedge at all times. Any money needed for spending in the next 1-2 years will be maintained in cash/cash equivalents. This way, when market corrections happen that I can’t see coming, we are ready to cover spending in advance.
While we don’t budget (I recently wrote about that) we do track our spending and we’ll continue to do so. This will ensure we are spending money on things we value and/or are aligned to our values.
Retirement will be uncharted waters for us. My wife begins her journey next month. Our psychological and emotional hurdles when it comes to spending money without two steady paycheques will begin very soon: it will interesting to see and feel how we manage that.
I’ll keep you posted.
Other than 1, 2, 3 above, what other advice do you have for me? Words of wisdom from folks that have been there, done that?
More Weekend Reading – Related to the The 2% Retirement Rule
My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the currently near record high valuations of U.S. stocks and the risks that may pose to those in the Retirement Risk Zone. Full column can be accessed by clicking on the highlighted headline: Why retirement planners are getting defensive.
Retirement Club co-founder Dale Roberts recently posted a typical anxious link to a Globe & Mail column by Dr. Norman Rothery, (CFA) which suggested the current environment of Trump-inspired Tariffs and global Trade Wars, are causing plenty of anxiety for this group.
In the piece posted under Managing Risk in Retirement – and headlined With today’s market, investors close to retirement face precarious times – Rothery said investors on the cusp of retirement are “facing peril from a combination of the unusually lofty U.S. stock market and political uncertainty that’s disrupting world trade.”
U.S. stocks trading at “worrying levels”
The U.S. stock market is “trading at worrying levels,” based on several Value factors, Rothery said: the S&P 500 Index is “trading at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (developed by Robert Shiller) near 39, which is above its peak of 33 in 1929 and it is approaching its top of 44 in late 1999, based on monthly data. Similarly the index’s price-to-sales ratio is approaching its 1999 high. A broader composite measure that includes many different market factors indicates that the U.S. market’s valuation is at record levels. “
Rothery, who also publishes StingyInvestor.com, concluded that it’s “likely that the U.S. stock market will generate unusually poor average real returns over the next decade or so.” Unfortunately, the U.S. stock market now represents about 65% of the world’s market by market capitalization based on its weight in the MSCI All-Country World Index at the end of August. So if the U.S. market flops, “It’ll likely take the rest of the world with it – at least temporarily,” Rothery cautioned.
This could impact recent retirees just beginning to draw down portfolios, due to “sequence of returns risk.” That means that those in the so-called Retirement Risk Zone who suffer early losses could down the road be in danger of outliving their savings. Rothery also reference the famous 4% Rule of financial planner and author William Bengen: the theory that investors in a 55/40/5 portfolio should be able to sustain retirement savings for 30 years provided the annual “SafeMax” withdrawal not exceed 4% a year (actually 4.7%) after adjusting for inflation. Bengen just released a new book titled A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More, which the Retired Money column plans to review next month.
What recent Retirees can do to lower their risk
Retirement Club members anxiously posed questions on the related chat room about whether they should be moving to cash and bonds, gold or other alternatives to U.S. stocks. To this, Dale Roberts – who also runs his own Cutthecrapinvesting blog – warned against getting too defensive but agreed a move to a 70% fixed income/30% stocks allocation might work for some nervous early retirees. Personally, he has trimmed back on his US growth stock exposure and added to defensive ETF sectors like consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. He also mentioned a US equity ETF trading in Canadian dollars: XDU.T
Advisors and their clients suffer from Optimist bias
Advisor John De Goey came to a similar cautious stance in a recent (Sept 12) speech at the MoneyShow in Toronto, archived here on YouTube. Titled Bullshift and Misguided beliefs (see this recent Hub blog) De Goey expanded on his usual themes of advisor bullishness and complacent investors, also articulated in his book Bullshift. Continue Reading…
John De Goey, a financial advisor and portfolio manager with Designed Securities, and long-time commentator on the financial services industry, was a keynote speaker at The Money Show recently held at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Author of the book ‘Bullshift – How optimism bias threatens your finances’ (Dundurn Press, Toronto, 2023) and host of the popular podcast Make Better Wealth Decisions, De Goey delivered a presentation called Bullshift and Misguided Beliefs.
‘Bullshift,’ the term De Goey has coined, refers to his view about how the financial services industry makes people feel bullish in order to do the industry’s bidding. To make his point, he noted full-page ads appearing in such publications as The Globe and Mail; one of them ran under the headline ‘Be bullish.’
As for misguided beliefs, De Goey says there is ample evidence that Canadian mutual fund registrants believe things which are patently untrue. To illustrate the latter, he referred to Brandolini’s Law.
Alberto Brandolini was an Italian programmer who developed the term in 2013 and his rule goes like this: The amount of energy required to refute BS is an order of magnitude bigger than what was needed to produce it in the first place. Or, put another way, it compares the considerable effort needed to debunk misinformation to the relative ease in creating that misinformation.
American writer and humourist Mark Twain had a take on this at a much earlier time, and De Goey cited that. Said Twain: “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” The point beyond all this, said De Goey, is that people must unlearn what they think they already know. No easy task.
His presentation at The Money Show covered a number of topics including:
The difference between misinformation (an honest mistake) and disinformation (saying something that is deliberately false), and how to unlearn the latter and think for yourself.
How behavioural economics and social psychology affect your investing decisions.
How the industry uses motivated reasoning and tribalism as opposed to critical thinking and evidence.
Why 90% of our financial decisions are based on emotions, not logical thinking.
Why governments and financial advisors like optimism over realism.
De Goey, always a student of history, observed that the market is 30% more expensive now than it was in 1929 just before the stock-market crash that led to the Great Depression. He mentioned the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 and their catastrophic impact on the U.S. economy, not to mention worldwide economy, and compared this to today’s on-and-off tariffs coming out of the Trump White House. He also noted recent credit downgrades and their effect on the U.S., and, of course, the very real pain of the tariffs which he believes will be much worse in the fourth quarter of 2025. What’s more, De Goey says this will be accompanied by higher inflation.
Bear market looming?
De Goey said the current bull market is “taking its final bow” and the bear market is “waiting in the wings.” In fact, he warned that gains made over the past six years could be entirely wiped out in the next four years if the historical regression to the mean for CAPE occurs. For those who are retired or nearing retirement, this would be devastating news indeed.
One of De Goey’s pet peeves – ‘optimism bias’ – refers to a) people thinking the good times will continue despite blatant warning signs, and b) the very human sentiment that bad things happen but only to other people. Not true, says De Goey. The trouble, he says, is that optimism can sometimes put you in trouble.
Normally, a presentation about money, economics and investing doesn’t get into wisdom imparted by such luminaries as Mark Twain, but De Goey didn’t stop there. He also took a page from Carl Sagan, notably, his 1997 book ‘The Demon-Haunted World. Said Sagan: “If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” Continue Reading…
Retirement income management and Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) can be complex topics for many Americans. This article presents effective strategies to help readers navigate these financial challenges. Drawing on insights from financial experts, the following tips offer practical approaches to optimize retirement income and manage RMDs efficiently.
Purchase Annuity for Guaranteed Retirement Income
Leverage Qualified Charitable Distributions for RMDs
Optimize Asset Location for Tax-Efficient RMDs
Consider Annuities for Steady Retirement Income
Use Trusts to Manage RMDs Strategically
Convert to Roth During Market Downturns
Implement Bucket Approach with Beneficiary Designations
Start Home-Based Business to Offset RMDs
Purchase Annuity for Guaranteed Retirement Income
It is important to always consider broader planning needs, but one strategy that can be useful for generating retirement income and managing required minimum distributions (RMDs) is purchasing an annuity. This annuity would be purchased within an IRA and would create a level stream of guaranteed income for the rest of one’s retirement. This will not only satisfy one’s RMDs, but it can also lower taxes by stretching income across many years. In particular, it could help avoid large, irregular distributions that might push one into higher tax brackets. — Aaron Brask, Retirement planner, Aaron Brask Capital LLC
Leverage Qualified Charitable Distributions for RMDs
The obvious choice is to find a part-time job that aligns with your passion. This way, you can generate income and get paid to enjoy your favorite hobby. For example, if you love golfing, getting a part-time job at a golf course may give you discounts or even free games.
As far as managing RMDs, the amount that you must distribute is not determined by your income. It is based on the value of your Traditional IRA at the end of the year and the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table or Joint Life and Last Survivor Table.
This doesn’t include Roth IRAs. There are no RMDs in these accounts.
The best way to manage the increase in income, which can lower benefits such as Social Security or Medicare Part B (which are based on annual income), is to leverage Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) for those who are philanthropic or give to a 501(c)(3) religious institution such as tithing.
When you reach the age to take RMDs, you can directly give to your favorite charity without incurring the tax implication or the increase in income that comes with RMD distributions. In 2025, you can donate up to US$108,000.
This will eliminate the RMD from being counted in your gross income and, at the same time, qualify for satisfying your annual distribution requirement.
I think this is useful because their favorite cause still receives donations, they satisfy their RMD, and they don’t have to pay the taxes up to that amount.
After 15+ years managing corporate finances and helping businesses with cash flow optimization, I’ve seen how asset location strategy can be a game-changer for Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) management. The approach involves strategically placing different types of investments across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts to minimize the tax impact when RMDs hit.
I worked with a client in the software technology space who had accumulated significant wealth through stock options and 401(k) contributions. We repositioned his bond holdings and REITs into his traditional IRA while moving growth stocks to his Roth accounts. When his RMDs started, he was pulling from bond interest and dividend income rather than forcing the sale of appreciating assets.
The key insight from my Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) background is treating this like portfolio optimization: you’re maximizing after-tax income rather than pre-tax returns. His RMD tax bill dropped by 18% because we were distributing lower-growth, income-generating assets instead of his high-performing tech stocks.
This works especially well for anyone with diverse investment types across multiple account structures. The planning needs to start at least 5-7 years before RMDs begin, but the tax savings compound significantly over time. — Michael J. Spitz, Principal, SPITZ CPA
Consider Annuities for Steady Retirement Income
Although annuities are often a source of debate and critique, they are still a functional and conservative way to generate income in retirement. If set up early enough, the steady income can often account for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) across all Individual Retirement Account (IRA) assets since the withdrawal rates are higher than the often quoted 4-4.5%. — Pedro Silva, Financial Advisor, Apex Investment Group, LLC
Use Trusts to Manage RMDs Strategically
After 25 years of helping clients navigate estate planning and witnessing countless families deal with Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) challenges, I’ve discovered the most effective strategy: creating an offshore Asset Protection Trust that feeds into a domestic charitable remainder trust for your RMDs. While this may sound complex, it’s incredibly powerful for the right situation.
Here’s how it works: I had a client with US$2.3 million in retirement accounts who was facing substantial RMDs that would push him into the highest tax brackets. We transferred a portion of his Individual Retirement Account (IRA) into a charitable remainder trust, which allowed him to take his RMDs as annuity payments over 20 years at a much lower effective tax rate. The added benefit? The remainder goes to charity, providing him with immediate tax deductions that offset other income. Continue Reading…
For this my 8th year of suggested titles for “booking up” in the subject area of ageing and longevity there’s only one book in a stack of others on unrelated subjects.
As I observed last year, with countless new books in this subject area arriving each year, sometimes I find a scarcity of new books that help to move the societal conversation, for I tend to lean towards those which focus that way, and those that offer an age inclusive global perspective where possible.
First up then, published in Australia, is The Age-friendly Lens (2023) a Routledge collection of essays/case studies edited by Christie M. Gardiner &Eileen O’Brien Webb, compiled in 2 parts; Age-friendly Systems and Age-friendly Housing & Accommodation. The chapters feature insights from around the world: Canada, Netherlands, Poland and Australia for example. In part as the introduction says, this book is “recommended reading for policy makers, politicians, think tanks and lobbyists who are all-age-inclusiveness.”
As somewhat of a connection off centre from this age-friendly lens, as it relates to age-friendly cities, I mention this next book on my summer reading list, new this summer: Messy Cities: Why We Can’t Plan Everything (2025) a collection of over 40 short essays edited by Dylan Reid, Zahra Ebrahim, Leslie Woo & John Lorinc – asking myself to wonder, how does messy work when we consider the design of an age-friendly or age inclusive city?
Urbanist admired Toronto
In Dylan Reid’s “sneak peek” of this book about messy urbanism, on his Desire Lines Substack, the story is told about how urbanist James Rojas came to Toronto in 2007 and admired it for the “sort of less than manicured quality to the whole thing … and coupled with a huge diversity of people, the city ends up feeling gloriously messy, in a functional and walkable way.”
Well Toronto, my original home city, is still messy, a 2025 version one can observe. And not to be disturbed, while I wait for this book to arrive this week, I have directed myself to inspect Reid’s 2010 essay Bless This Mess, which will tone me up in the meantime. Continue Reading…
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