On Tuesday, BMO ETFs conducted its third annual ETF Investor day. Conducted at the Toronto Stock Exchange, Do-it-yourself investors and finfluencers [Financial Influencers] were on hand for the ceremonial opening of the exchange, shown in the photo on the left. The Investor Day will also be held in Montreal on June 18: Details here. 

This marks BMO’s 17th year as a Canadian ETF provider, with $165 billion in Assets under management and 66 tickers  with a 10-year track record.

The first presentation was an economic and investing overview from Fred Demers, Director of Multi Asset Strategy at BMO Global Asset Management. He teased whether the R word refers to a Recession or Resilience when it comes to forecasting the economy. While the world is likely to remain messy, “the good news is the world always carries on.”

Demers is particularly bullish about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy and the Tech giants that power innovation and in particular the A.I. Capex boom and AI infrastructure buildout. Stock markets are already seeing beyond the drama of the war in Iran, he said, led by a 12% gain YTD 2026 in Emerging Markets, 9% or so for the Nasdaq and almost 8% for the TSX, as shown in the chart below taken from the presentation.

Fixed income is not doing much of anything, which is to be expected when the economy is doing well but would show its value if a Recession got under way accompanied by Job Loss, which he said is not yet where we are. Gold has returned almost 6%, disappointing given the Middle East conflict but “still doing its thing short-term.” Its role is not to diversify equities but to diversify fixed Income.

Obviously the oil shock hurts and is a clear negative for Growth but it remains to be seen how severe it will be. Demers said Trump’s Tariffs amount to basically the equivalent of a 3% GST (a reference to Canada’s Goods & Services Tax).

He said it’s good to diversify globally but investors worried about the impact of Trump should “be careful about exiting the U.S. entirely.” The AI race is primarily between the US and China and AI Capex will keep roaring for years if not for decades. We are “not even half way through the capex cycle.” AI Capex spending has reached a “phenomenal” US $350 billion, and is on track to pass US$750 billion in 2026; the hyperscalers are planning between $1.1 and $1.2 trillion.

By contrast, AI Capex in Canada is not even $50 billion. Just ten giant American companies generate a third of the country’s economic activity. These are the big-tech titans but the U.S. economy has also become an Energy Powerhouse: the biggest oil producer in the world and net exporter of energy. Next is Saudi Arabia and Russia, with Canada in fourth and Iran is ninth. (See chart shown in the Sector section below)

Sector ETFs

The second talk was by Simona Mocuta, managing director and chief economist for State Street Investment Management (shown on the left). BMO recently launched a suite of BMO SPDR Select Sector Index ETFs with State Street and sector investing was the focus of her talk.  She started by saying she agreed with everything Fred said, drawing laughs when she said “it’s nice to see a Canadian that still likes the United States.”

BMO’s vice president of Online Distribution ETFs Zayla Saunders asked Mocuta about a SPDR energy ETF [XLE/TSX] to capitalize on surging oil and gas prices sparked by the Iran conflict. “Go for it,” Mocuta says, “Talk AI all you want but you need Energy to make it happen.” With the Iran war, the U.S. is telling Europe to buy from the U.S., which makes Energy as “compelling buy-and-hold.” The chart below is from Demers’ presentation:

Among other sectors, Technology was by far the best performer in April, Mocuta said, but there have been over the last 12 months strong inflows into Industrials, Materials and Energy.” However, investors should also consider less-loved sectors like Healthcare.

In response to an audience question about the U.S. financial sector, Mocuta said that in the medium term banks are being deregulated, which is a huge positive after the regulatory burdens imposed after the Great Financial Crisis. Continue Reading…