For the first 30 or so years of working, saving and investing, you’ll be first in the mode of getting out of the hole (paying down debt), and then building your net worth (that’s wealth accumulation.). But don’t forget, wealth accumulation isn’t the ultimate goal. Decumulation is! (a separate category here at the Hub).
Over the last few years, discussions around personal finance have been louder – and more confusing – than ever.
Market volatility, rising interest rates, the high cost of living and global unrest have dominated headlines and made life increasingly complicated for most Canadians.
Today (October 9) is World Financial Planning Day, a time to dim the noise and focus on the basics: a financial plan, what it is and how it can help you feel financially prepared for your future. More importantly, it’s an occasion to recognize that working with a financial advisor on a personal plan has many benefits, including greater financial confidence and a higher quality of life.
A financial plan is not just an investment plan: in fact, it’s much more. An investment portfolio is certainly a component of a financial plan, but your investments don’t provide a clear direction for any life plans in the coming years. Your investments can indicate financial returns, but their value is not guaranteed at any point in time and investments alone cannot prepare you for the future.
A financial plan is a goals-based document that provides a road map for what you would like to achieve in the short- and long-term. The goals are not necessarily financial, but they need monetary support (like investment income) to be reached.
Goals within your financial plan may include:
When you want to retire, and the lifestyle you want in your golden years.
Affording major expenditures, including a home, vacations or post-secondary education for dependents.
Preparedness for untimely events, such as premature death, disability or critical illness.
Plans for your estate and the legacy you’d like to leave for your family and charities.
These goals are personal and involve answers to questions that address significant, and sometimes difficult, situations. It can be challenging to determine these responses on your own, so working with a financial planner can help you answer these questions, define your goals and create a strategy to achieve them. Your financial planner will get to know you on a personal level. Then, based on your aspirations, project what needs to happen and create a financial plan for your future. Continue Reading…
Financial Independence is the goal of everyone with a bank account, and budgeting plays a main role in achieving that.
It can be difficult to understand where to start or how to get yourself back on track.
With these valuable pieces of insight from leading industry experts, you can start your own Fnancial Independence journey.
Pay yourself first
“One essential budgeting tip for achieving financial independence is to adopt a ‘pay yourself first’ approach. This means prioritizing savings and investments by setting aside a certain portion of your income as soon as you receive it, before using it for bills, expenses, or discretionary spending. By automating savings and investments into accounts like emergency funds, retirement accounts, or other investment accounts, you’re prioritizing your financial goals and building a habit of consistently contributing toward them. Over time, this proactive approach allows your savings to grow, helps you avoid lifestyle inflation, and keeps you focused on long-term financial stability rather than short-term gratification.” – Bill Lyons, CEO of Griffin Funding
Financial independence wildly relies on smart budgeting and disciplined financial practices. One powerful strategy is to leverage your tax return, which is often a lump sum. Consider depositing your tax return directly into a separate savings account from your tax software. This strategic move creates somewhat of a safety net. This disciplined approach not only safeguards your funds but also provides a foundation for future investments or emergency expenses. Over time, this habit can contribute significantly to your financial independence.
Minimize Debt
“Minimizing your debt can help achieve financial independence, as it reduces financial burdens and frees up resources for other financial goals. When you prioritize the repayment of high-interest debts, such as credit-card debt or personal loans, individuals can save significant amounts of money on interest payments over time. This disciplined approach to debt reduction can also improve credit scores, making it easier to qualify for private financing options when purchasing a home or commercial property. Minimizing debt, individuals can strengthen their financial position and increase their chances of securing favorable terms and rates for private financing, ultimately helping them achieve their real estate ownership goals.” – Sacha Ferrandi Founder & Principal, Source Capital
“A practical budgeting method divides income into three categories: 50% for needs, 30% for wants, and 20% for savings or debt repayment. This system assists individuals in efficiently allocating their funds, ensuring they cover essential expenses such as housing, groceries, and utilities, while also setting aside money for financial goals. Wants to include discretionary spending such as entertainment and dining out. The remaining portion goes towards savings or paying off debts, contributing to long-term financial security. This budgeting approach offers a simple framework for managing finances, preventing overspending on non-essentials while prioritizing savings. It’s adaptable to different income levels, making it a balanced way to manage money.”– California Credit Union
Plan for irregular expenses
“Planning for irregular expenses is a wise budgeting strategy that can contribute to financial independence. By anticipating and setting aside funds for irregular expenses, individuals can avoid financial stress when unexpected costs arise. One effective way to allocate funds for irregular expenses is by saving a portion of your tax refund return instead of immediately spending it on unnecessary items. Exercising discipline and directing your tax refund towards an emergency fund or a dedicated savings account, you can build a financial cushion that provides peace of mind and protects you from unexpected financial setbacks. This proactive approach to budgeting ensures that you are prepared for unexpected irregular expenses and helps you maintain control over your financial well-being.”– Lisa Green-Lewis Tax Expert, Turbo Tax Continue Reading…
When it comes to stocks, index investing offers many advantages over other investment approaches. However, these advantages don’t always carry over to other asset classes. No investment style should be treated like a religion, indexing included. It pays to think through the reasons for using a given approach to investing.
Stocks
Low-cost broadly-diversified index investing in stocks offers a number of advantages over other investment approaches:
Lower costs, including MERs, trading costs within funds, and capital gains taxes
Less work for the investor
Better diversification, leading to lower-volatility losses
Choosing actively-managed mutual funds or ETFs definitely has much higher costs. For investors who just pick some actively-managed funds and stick with them, the amount of work required can be low, but more often the investor stays on the lookout for better funds, which can be a lot of work for questionable benefit. Many actively-managed funds offer decent diversification. Ironically, the best diversification comes from closet index funds that charge high fees for doing little.
Investors who pick their own stocks to hold for the long term, including dividend investors, do well on costs, but typically put in a lot of work and fail to diversify sufficiently. Those who trade stocks actively on their own tend to suffer from trading losses and poor diversification, and they put in a lot of effort for their poor results. Things get worse with options.
Despite the advantages of pure index investing in stocks, I make two exceptions. The first is that I own one ETF of U.S. small value stocks (Vanguard’s VBR) because of the history of small value stocks outperforming market averages. If this works out poorly for me, it will be because of slightly higher costs and slightly poorer diversification.
One might ask why I don’t make exceptions for other factors shown to have produced excess returns in the past. The reason is that I have little confidence that they will outperform in the future by enough to cover the higher costs of investing in them. Popularity tends to drive down future returns. The same may happen to small value stocks, but they seemed to me to offer enough promise to take the chance.
The second exception I make to pure index investing in stocks is that I tilt slowly toward bonds as the CAPE10 of the world’s stocks grows above 25. I think of this as easing up on stocks because they have risen substantially, and I have less need to take as much risk to meet my goals. It also reduces my portfolio’s risk at a time when the odds of a substantial stock market crash are elevated. But the fact that I think of this measure in terms of risk control doesn’t change the fact that I’m engaged in a modest amount of market timing.
At the CAPE10 peak in late 2021, my allocation to bonds was 7 percentage points higher than it would have been if the CAPE10 had been below 25. This might seem like a small change, but the shift of dollars from high-flying stocks to bonds got magnified when combined with my normal portfolio rebalancing.
Another thing I do as the CAPE10 of the world’s stocks exceeds 20 is to lower my future return expectations, but this doesn’t include any additional portfolio adjustments.
Bonds
It is easy to treat all bonds as a single asset class and invest in an index of all available bonds, perhaps limited to a particular country. However, I don’t see bonds this way. I see corporate bonds as a separate asset class from government bonds, because corporate bonds have the possibility of default. I prefer to invest slightly more in stocks than to chase yield in corporate bonds.
I don’t know if experts can see conditions when corporate bonds are a good bet based on their risk and the additional yield they offer. I just know that I can’t do this. I prefer my bonds to be safe and to leave the risk to my stock holdings.
I also see long-term government bonds as a different asset class from short-term government bonds (less than 5 years). Central banks are constantly manipulating the bond market through ramping up or down on their holdings of different durations of bonds. This manipulation makes me uneasy about holding risky long-term bonds.
Another reason I have for avoiding long-term bonds is inflation risk. Investment professionals are often taught that government bonds are risk-free if held to maturity. This is only true in nominal terms. My future financial obligations tend to grow with inflation. Long-term government bonds look very risky to me when I consider the uncertainty of inflation over decades. Inflation-protected bonds deal with inflation risk, but this still leaves concerns about bond market manipulation by central banks.
Once we eliminate corporate bonds and long-term government bonds, the idea of indexing doesn’t really apply. For a given duration, all government bonds in a particular country tend to all have the same yield. Owning an index of different durations of bonds from 0 to 5 years offers some diversification, but I tend not to think about this much. I buy a short-term bond ETF when it’s convenient, and just store cash in a high-interest savings account when that is convenient.
Overall, I’m not convinced that the solid thinking behind stock indexing carries over well to bond investing. There are those who carve up stocks into sub-classes they like and don’t like, just as I have done with bonds. However, my view of the resulting stock investing strategies, such as owning only some sub-classes or sector rotation, is that they are inferior to broad-based indexing of stocks. I don’t see broad-based indexing of bonds the same way.
Real estate
Owning Real-Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) is certainly less risky than owning a property or two. I’ve chosen to avoid additional real estate investments beyond the house I live in and whatever is held by the companies in my ETFs. So, I can’t say I know much about REITs. Continue Reading…
Billy and Akaisha in Sorrento, Southern Italy; Photo courtesy of RetireEarlyLifestyle.com
By Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com
Special to Financial Independence Hub
“Improvise, Adapt, and Overcome” – Marine slogan
What a year!
Every year brings new challenges that we must face. Life doesn’t stop and the best way to meet the “new” is with an open attitude and a sense of confidence. Fear doesn’t help anyone or anything.
Solid plans often break
Our Readers will sometimes say they have just a few more things to settle, a few more “I’s” to dot and “T’s” to cross before retiring. They’re waiting for the health care issue to be settled, waiting for the bonus check next year, waiting to hit “this” particular financial number, waiting for next year to sell their properties, waiting for things to mellow out in the country, waiting for inflation to go down, waiting for the market to go back up,… they’re waiting…
Personal Financial Independence was put off until this imaginary perfect time, and then finally they planned a year of travel. But BAM! One of the spouses became gravely ill with a disease that not only shook them up, but forced them to shelve all excursion plans. Or the market started pulling back giving them the willies and they lost confidence in their future plans of early retirement.
Ask yourself, “What are you waiting for and why?” Then ask yourself if you have a Plan B for these unexpected situations.
Lots of people wait until they graduate from law school, or get the degree or wait until they get married, or until they buy that perfect house, or until the kids get out of school, or they hit that magic number to retire – in order to be happy.
They live for tomorrow and forget all about the pleasures and happiness of today.
Stop settling, start living. NOW.
You’re not going to get anything in Life by playing it safe. There are no guarantees.
Lesson learned; Faith over Fear, Don’t Worry be Happy
Image courtesy RetireEarlyLifestyle.com
We only have control of ourselves.
I get push back on this one, sometimes. Usually it falls under the “You don’t understand what I’m going through” category.
But if you think about it, stuff happens.
We can’t control a loved one getting ill, can’t control that our children or spouse do what we prefer. We don’t have a lot of say in international peace relations. Whether our children get divorced, illness knocks you or a loved one for a loop, there’s a huge business loss or politics don’t go our way – all we have control over – is our response to the situation.
If you are feeling out of control on your moods, there are lots of tools to clarify your mind and calm yourself down and lots of services available to you. Don’t let the stress build up until you have an even worse situation happen.
Lesson Learned; Life is not in our total control – only our response to it is.
Relationships change
Relationships are cemented or lost every year. Change is part of life, and some relationships don’t move forward with us.
Once again if you think about it, when you got married, had a child, moved cross-country, got that promotion, contracted a serious illness, got divorced, retired early or hit any other life milestone, did some friendships recede?
Most likely.
Life is change and sometimes your better future lies ahead of you, without those loved people in them.
Yes, it IS difficult to let go of habits and people. We’ve all been there at different points in our lives. It’s better to process the loss and continue to move forward, creating the life of our dreams, than to become bitter and angry over the loss.
In my opinion, 2024 was a year of clarification.
What I mean is, yup. Things fall away. Sometimes it’s beloved things and people. I think this helps us to focus on what really matters to us. This is a blessing in disguise and you will be stronger for it.
Lesson Learned; As you grow, some relationships won’t make it into your future.
Fear seems ever-present
When we are afraid of something, chances are, we don’t know much about it. Our perceptions are skewed because of this.
Remember the old saying – FEAR is False Evidence Appearing Real?
Take control and choose to find out more. The knowledge you discover will give you options and open up doors for you. Question the thoughts you are thinking and the beliefs you are holding. Question the definitions you have set for yourself. Fear does not serve you in any way and will only force you to contract, limiting your options even further.
This is a choice.
You can either learn and grow or contract and suffer because of it.
Lesson Learned; Fear is related to ignorance. Choose to learn more
People retreated into perceived safety
There is no safety, there are no guarantees. And sometimes as we age, we think we’ll feel better if we just “don’t take any chances.”
Remember Helen Keller’s quote:
Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing.
Make the most of life every day. It’s later than you think!
Lesson Learned; Life is a risk every day. Manage it.
Anxiety seems to be everywhere
This is a good one, and it surprised me a bit.
Living the “life of my dreams” I hadn’t realized that I was still carrying friction and tension in assorted areas of my life. Billy and I started getting massages more often. I began going to a chiropractor, and my customary yoga became more important. We upped our exercise routine, I meditated more and I opened my mind to new information.
Anything that just didn’t “fall into place easily” or no longer worked … we dropped.
This made us feel freer and gave us more physical energy, clearing our minds.
Lesson Learned; Make things easier on yourself in any and all ways.
Don’t stop living your life
When things change beyond our control, we must find the advantages in the situation and make the most of where we are. Continue Reading…
Since 2008, there has been a major shift from actively managed funds into passive, index-tracking investments. During this time, more than $1 trillion has flowed from actively managed U.S. equity funds into their passive counterparts, which have increased their share of the U.S. investment pie from under 20% to over 40%.
The Efficient Market Theory and Active Management: Why Bother?
The theory underlying passive investing is the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), which was developed in the 1960s at the Chicago Graduate School of Business. The EMH states that asset prices reflect all available information, causing securities to always be priced correctly, thereby making markets efficient. By extension, it asserts that you cannot achieve higher returns without assuming a commensurate amount of incremental risk, nor can you reduce risk without sacrificing a commensurate amount of return. In essence, the EMH contends that it is impossible to consistently “beat the market” on a risk-adjusted basis. When applied to the decision to hire an active manager rather than a passive index fund, the EMH can be neatly summarized as “why bother?”
It might seem that, as an active manager, I am shooting myself in the foot by pointing out the success of passive investing at the expense of its active counterpart … but bear with me for the punchline.
Bogle’s Folly & Not Backing Down
The first index funds were launched in the early 1970s by American National Bank, Batterymarch Financial Management, and Wells Fargo, and were available only to large pension plans. A few years later, the Vanguard First Index Investment Fund (now the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund), was launched as the first index fund available to individual investors. The fund was the brainchild of Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, who believed that it would be difficult for actively managed mutual funds to outperform an index fund once their costs and fees were subtracted from returns. His goal was to offer investors a diversified fund at minimal cost that would give them what he called their “fair share” of the stock market’s return.
In its initial public offering, the fund brought in only $11.3 million. Vanguard’s competitors referred to the fund as “Bogle’s Folly,” stating that investors wanted nothing to do with a fund that, by its very nature, could never outperform the market. To the benefit of the investing public, Bogle did not back down. Vanguard currently manages over $9 trillion in assets, the bulk of which is in index funds and exchange-traded funds. Importantly, approximately half of all assets managed by investment companies in the U.S. are invested in Bogle’s Folly and its descendants.
Bogle permanently changed the investment industry. Any investors can purchase shares of low-cost index funds in almost every global asset class. At Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s 2017 annual meeting, Buffett estimated that by making low-cost index funds so popular for investors, Bogle “put tens and tens and tens of billions of dollars into their pockets.” According to Buffett, “Jack did more for American investors as a whole than any individual I’ve known.”
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Hype vs. Reality
In most cases, the long-term evidence makes it hard to strongly disagree with the EMH, and by extension to advocate for active over passive management. Specifically, active management has by and large failed to deliver.
According to S&P Global, 78.7% of U.S. active large-cap managers have underperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past five years ending December 31, 2023.
A $10 million investment in the index made at the end of 2018 would be worth $20,724,263 five years later, as compared to an average value for active managers of $18,481,489, representing a shortfall of $2,242,774 vs. the index.
Extrapolating the different rates of return of the index and active managers for another five years, the average shortfall of active managers increases from $2,242,774 to $8,792,966. After 20 years, the difference grows by an additional $59,006,123 to $67,799,089.
The Canadian experience has been similarly damning:
According to S&P Global, 93.0% of Canadian equity managers have underperformed the TSX Composite Index over the past five years ending December 31, 2023.
A $10 million investment in the index made at the end of 2018 would be worth $17,079,526 five years later, as compared to an average value of $15,217,594 for active managers, representing a shortfall of $1,861,932 vs. the index.
Extrapolating the different rates of return of the index and active managers for another five years, the average shortfall of active managers increases from $1,861,932 to $6,013,505. After 20 years, the difference grows by an additional $25,454,288 to $31,467,793.
Given these dire statistics, it is no wonder that swaths of institutional and individual investors have migrated from active management to passive investing. Investors have been getting the message that the proclaimed advantages of active management are more hype than reality.
Acceptable Failure, Unacceptable Failure & Michael Jordan
Legendary basketball superstar Michael Jordan stated, “I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can’t accept not trying.” Relatedly, within the sphere of active management it is imperative to discern between what I refer to as sincere and disingenuous underperformers.
Sincere underperformers try their level best to outperform (an “A” for effort scenario). These active efforts entail expenses that passive funds do not face, such as paying investment professionals to analyze companies with the goal of identifying stocks that will outperform. These extra costs must be passed on to investors, resulting in higher fees than passive vehicles. In contrast, disingenuous underperformers are not truly trying to outperform. Their portfolios more or less replicate their benchmark indexes. Such funds, which are pejoratively referred to as “closet indexers”, are charging active management fees for doing something that investors could do for a fraction of the cost by investing in an index fund or ETF – good work if you can find it!
An academic study titled, “The Mutual Fund Industry Worldwide: Explicit and Closet Indexing, Fees, and Performance,” determined the pervasiveness of closet indexers across a sample of developed countries. Out of the 20 countries included in the study, Canada ranked highest in terms of its percentage of purportedly active mutual fund assets that are actually invested in closet index portfolios. Every year, billions of dollars in fees are unjustifiably being charged to investors.
Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater
Although the historical data clearly indicate that the vast majority of managers have underperformed their benchmarks, this is not universally the case. Although few and far between, there are managers who have outperformed, either in simple terms, in risk-adjusted terms, or both.
According to S&P Global, 93.9% of Canadian dividend-focused funds have underperformed over the past five years. In sharp contrast, the algorithmically driven Outcome Canadian Equity Income Fund has outperformed the iShares TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF (symbol CDZ) by 13.1% since its inception nearly six years ago in October 2018. A $10 million investment in the OCEI fund made at its inception would have a value of $$17,731,791 as of the end of last month, as compared to a value of $16,426,492 for the iShares TSX Dividend Aristocrats Index ETF. Importantly, the fund has achieved these higher returns while exhibiting significantly less volatility and shallower losses in declining markets. In combination, the fund’s higher returns and lower volatility have enabled it to achieve a risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio) that is 49.9% higher than its benchmark.
Noah Solomon is Chief Investment Officer for Outcome Metric Asset Management Limited Partnership. From 2008 to 2016, Noah was CEO and CIO of GenFund Management Inc. (formerly Genuity Fund Management), where he designed and managed data-driven, statistically-based equity funds.
Between 2002 and 2008, Noah was a proprietary trader in the equities division of Goldman Sachs, where he deployed the firm’s capital in several quantitatively-driven investment strategies. Prior to joining Goldman, Noah worked at Citibank and Lehman Brothers. Noah holds an MBA from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, where he graduated as a Palmer Scholar (top 5% of graduating class). He also holds a BA from McGill University (magna cum laude).
Noah is frequently featured in the media including a regular column in the Financial Post and appearances on BNN. This blog originally appeared in the August 2024 issue of the Outcome newsletter and is republished here with permission.
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