Building Wealth

For the first 30 or so years of working, saving and investing, you’ll be first in the mode of getting out of the hole (paying down debt), and then building your net worth (that’s wealth accumulation.). But don’t forget, wealth accumulation isn’t the ultimate goal. Decumulation is! (a separate category here at the Hub).

Opportunity Cost Impact of Daily Financial Decisions on Retirement Plans

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Via Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Editor’s Note:

Editor’s Note: The following is a guest blog by Maureen Thorne, a Small Business Owner. It is republished on the Hub with their joint permission.

A Personal Journey on how Today’s Choices can spoil your Retirement (or Early Retirement) Dreams

By Maureen Thorne, Small Business Owner/Guest Author

As my husband and I approached our late 40s/early 50s, we decided it was time to solidify our previous hastily sketched plans for early retirement. We had worked hard for many years and skimped in places (never purchased a brand-new car) and were confident that we had done everything right to retire early and live our best early retirement lives.

However …

When we sat down with the numbers, we realized our dreams of an early retirement with travel and adventure were farther from reach than we thought. We both had well-paying careers and didn’t feel that we had splurged so much that we should be this far behind.

What happened?

And, more importantly …

How do we get back on track?

We read a great article from Lowrie Financial, Retirement Planning for Gen Xers: Build Wealth and Retire Happy, which gave us some great insights and seemed to speak directly to our financial situation. Another topic area that Lowrie Financial introduced us to was behavioural finance / holistic financial planning for savings. We felt these were areas we should explore more to help us achieve our long-term financial goals.

Once panic-mode subsided, we sat down with some spreadsheets to see what had gone awry and figure out how (and if?) we could still retire early and be able to comfortably afford the things we wanted from retirement.

Here’s what we did to right the (sinking?) ship:

Real Talk from an Independent Financial Advisor

We booked a meeting with an independent financial advisor who had lots of questions for us about what we wanted to achieve. We explored behavioural finance which allowed us to really look at the impact on our spending habits and investing history. One of the most helpful tough-love comments from him:

“You make a lot of money. Where is it all going?”

Good question.

This led us to one of the steps we took to financially recover our early retirement plans: Family Spending Forensics.

We also realized we had missed opportunities to pack away excess cash in the past. Every time we stopped shelling out for something, we simply cheered and lived it up to that higher level of cash flow. We finished paying our mortgage, so we took the entire family to Europe. We stopped paying into our kids’ RESP, so we re-renovated the house. This identified another area that was a stumbling block for us to achieve that long-dreamed-of early retirement: Retain (and Make the Most of) “Found Money.”

Our financial advisor also pointed out something we begrudgingly already knew. We had really hurt ourselves with DIY investing. Although there were times we won big, there were many times we lost, both small and big. Although, it was fun for us to see how well we could do on our own and we reveled in keeping up with the financial and investing insights online to help guide us, always seemed to be behind the eight ball and not getting ahead like we should have been. We were driven by emotions. In hindsight, our DIY investment strategy seemed to be: 1 step forward, 2 steps back. There were so many things we didn’t focus on: tax ramifications, behavioural investing, opportunity costs, chasing returns, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) investing … We knew we needed to: Stop Emotion-Driven DIY Investing.

How we got back on track for our Early Retirement Financial Goals

1. Family Spending Forensics

“You make a lot of money. Where is it all going?”

Our independent financial advisor’s words kept ringing in our heads. So, as advised, we tracked our spending and instituted a realistic budget.

There were areas that immediately jumped out as places we could restrain our big over-spending: clothing, dining out, vacationing, etc. That didn’t mean that we stayed at home wearing rags and eating Kraft Dinner. It simply translated to setting aside a reasonable budget for the year or month for that particular spending category and sticking to it. We still vacationed, we still shopped, we still ate out – but all with the budget in mind.

We also found that we could pull back in multiple smaller areas – putting a budget figure in place helped us shave small amounts in many areas, and it added up.

It’s also important to note that our “scrimping” went virtually unnoticed in our every day lives. We didn’t feel deprived at all.

A great article we discovered, Spending Decisions That End Up Costing a Million Dollars by Andrew Hallam, talks about an often overlooked impact of spending decisions: opportunity costs.

“Those massages also cost far more money than initially meets the eye. ‘Opportunity cost’ is the difference in cost between making one decision over another. An opportunity cost isn’t always financial. But in my case, those massages might have cost us more than $770,000.

Confused? Check this out:

We spent about $150 a week on massages during an 11-year period (2003–2014).

That’s $85,800 over 11 years.

Over that time, our investment portfolio averaged 8.34% per year.

If we had invested the money we spent on massages, we would have had an extra $143,239 in our investment account by 2014.

That’s a lot of money. But I’m not done yet. We left Singapore in 2014 (when I was 44). Assume we let that $143,239 grow in a portfolio that continued to average 8.34% per year. Without adding another penny to it, that money would grow to $770,241 by the time I am 65 years old.

That’s the long-term opportunity cost of spending $150 a week on massages for just 11 years.”

We realized very quickly how much a little restraint in our spending habits impacted our bottom line. Within just 1 year, we could see the light back to our early-retirement goal. Just 2 years later and we are well ahead of plan.

2. Retain (and Make the Most of) “Found Money”

“Found Money” – sounds great! So, what is it. In my mind, it is excess cash flow that was not expected or presents a sudden or continuous influx of cash to the household. This can be: Continue Reading…

Living off the Dividends?

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

It is the most popular rallying cry for self-directed investors in Canada and the U.S. – I plan to “live off of the dividends.” Or in retirement – “I am living off of the dividends.” The notion leaves money on the table in the accumulation stage and living off of the dividends leaves a lot of money on the table in retirement. Don’t get me wrong, I love the big juicy (and growing) dividend as a part of our retirement plan. But as an exclusive strategy, the income approach simply comes up short.

It’s not a popular Tweet, but I have suggested that no investor with a viable and sensible financial plan would live off the dividends. Add this to the points made in the opening paragraph; it might not be tax-efficient. Also, the dividend would have no idea of what is a financial plan and what is the most optimal order of account type spending. Check in with the our friends at Cashflows&Portfolios and they can show you a very efficient order of asset harvesting.

On Seeking Alpha, I recently offered this post:

Living off dividends in retirement; don’t sell yourself short.

Thanks to Mark at My Own Advisor for including that post in the well-read Weekend Reads.

Financial Planner: It may be a bad idea

From financial planner Jason Heath, in the Financial Post.

Why living off your dividends in retirement may be a mistake.

Retirement planning is a personal decision, but you might be making a big mistake if you go out of your way to ensure you can live off your dividends, since you will be leaving a great deal of money when you die. In the process, you may have worked too hard at the expense of family time or spent too little at the expense of treating yourself.

In that Seeking Alpha post, I used BlackRock as the poster child for a lower-yielding dividend growth stock. The yield is lower but the dividend growth is impressive. That can often be a sign of underlying earnings growth and financial health.

2022 update: BlackRock is falling with the market (and then some); the yield is now above 3%.

Making homemade dividends

In that Seeking Alpha post, I demonstrated the benefit of selling a few shares to boost the total retirement take from BlackRock. The retiree gets an impressive income boost, and only had to sell 2.8% of the initial share count. The risk is managed.

Starting with a hypothetical $1 million portfolio, $50,000 in annual income represents an initial 5% spend rate. That is, we are spending 5% of the total portfolio value. Without share sales the retiree would have been spending at an initial 3.3%.

Share Sales (in the table) represents the income available thanks to the selling of shares: creating that homemade dividend.

The retiree who has the ability to press that sell button to create income enjoyed much higher income. In fact, the retiree would have been able to sell significantly more shares (compared to the example above) to create even more additional income.

Plus the dividend growth is so strong, it quickly eliminated the need to sell shares.

BlackRock Dividend Growth – Seeking Alpha

In fact, the BlackRock dividend quickly surpasses the income level of the Canadian bank index. It can be a win, win, win. Even for the dividend-loving Canadian accumulator, BlackRock is superior on the dividend flow.

But of course, the aware retiree will keep selling shares and making hay when the sun shines. They might cut back any share sales in a market correction: also known as a variable withdrawal strategy.

It’s a simple truth. Don’t let the income drive the bus. It doesn’t know where you need to go. This is not advice, but consider growth and total return and share harvesting.

Don’t sell yourself short.

In the Seeking Alpha post, I also offered:

The optimal mix of income and growth for retirement Continue Reading…

When will this be over, How deep will it go, and How will it end?

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By Noah Solomon

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates, and growing recession concerns, stocks have had a dismal year, with technology and unprofitable growth companies experiencing particularly severe losses.

Given the carnage in global markets, investors are pondering the following three questions:

  1. How long will the carnage last?
  2. How much more will equities fall before hitting bottom?
  3. What might it take for equity fortunes to turn?

In my commentary below, I address these questions from a historical perspective.

The current Bear Market: Fairly Average by Historical Standards

To begin, I analyzed all peak-tough declines of more than 15% in the S&P 500 Index since 1950, which are listed in the following table:

 

 

The average length of all 15%+ declines is 310.9 days. Taking the recent peak on January 3, the current bear market clocks in at 270 days as of the end of September. The time is at hand when the current decline will have become average from a historical standpoint. In terms of magnitude, the average decline has been 28.7%. As is the case with duration, we are near the point at which the current decline in prices can be construed as garden variety, with the S&P 500 Index down 24.3% from its early January peak through September 30.

Although historical averages are a useful guidepost for contextualizing where the current decline in stocks stands, they must nonetheless be taken with a large grain of salt. Of the 17 declines in the S&P 500 index since 1950, 14 have been at least 5% less or 5% more severe than the average decline of -28.7%, and five of them have fallen outside of the +/- 10% band of the average. There is no guarantee that markets will continue to decline until they match the historical average. Similarly, it is entirely possible that the current decline will eventually exceed the historical norm (perhaps meaningfully so).

Every bear market is unique in its own way. They may share certain commonalities but none of them are exactly alike. They differ either in terms of their causes, their macroeconomic environments, or the accompanying fiscal and monetary responses. Accordingly, we further scrutinized the data to ascertain whether there are any factors that can be associated with worse than run of the mill bear markets.

One Hell summons another

We found that past bear market patterns can be well-summarized by the Latin expression “abyssus abyssum invocat,” which means “one hell summons another.” Historically, once stocks have already suffered precipitous declines, they have tended to continue falling over the short term. Of the eight losses that have breached the -25% threshold, the average peak-trough loss was 39.1%. Alternately stated, during times when stocks declined by at least 25%, the panic train went into high gear, with stocks declining a further 14.1% on average.

Beware the “R” Word

Bear markets that have been accompanied by recessions have tended to be more vicious than their non-recession counterparts. Of the 17 declines in the S&P 500 Index of at least 15%, nine have been accompanied by recessions. The average length of these nine episodes is 427.8, which clocks in at a full 116 days longer than the average for all 17 observations. Continue Reading…

What we’re doing in this beet-red Bear market

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Image Tawcan/Unsplash

By Bob Lai, Tawcan

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you probably have heard that the global stock market has been on a downward spiral. Yup, the bear has entered the room and many of us are seeing beet-red market conditions over the last number of months.

Year to date the TSX is down more than 13%.

TSX YTD performance

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down more than 22% year to date.

S&P500 YTD performance

The typically high-flying NASDAQ is down more than 30% year to date.

NASDAQ YTD performance

For those investors who only started investing in 2021 or those who are used to the only-going-up-bull-market condition, the recent downward trend is undoubtedly hard to stomach.

Given that we’ve been DIY investing for more than a decade, some readers have reached out and asked what we’re doing in this bear, beet-red market condition.

So what are we doing?

Allow me to explain.

Think long term

First of all, it’s essential to think long term. If you’re still in the accumulation phase, like us, you should be wishing and hoping for an extended bear market.

Why?

Because investors in the accumulation phase will want to buy stocks at discounted prices.

How often do you see the likes of Royal Bank and TD having an initial dividend yield of over 4.1%? The 10-year historical average dividend yield for Royal Bank is 3.92% while the 10-year historical average dividend yield for TD is 3.8%. Continue Reading…

Canadian Financial Summit 2022 (Virtual)

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This week a veritable who’s who of Canadian financial personalities and personal finance bloggers will be featured at the 2022 (and virtual) edition of the Canadian Financial Summit, starting this Wednesday. Hub readers will recognize several guest bloggers, including (pictured above) Robb Engen of Boomer & Echo; Bob Lai of Tawcan; Kyle Prevost of Million Dollar Journey and MoneySense; myself; as well as well-known media commentators like Robb Carrick of the Globe & Mail, Peter Hodgson of the Financial Post, Fred Vettese of the G&M, financial planner Ed Rempel and many more. There will also be MoneySense colleagues Dale Roberts (of Cutthecrapinvesting) and MoneySense executive editor Lisa Hannam

The online summit runs from Wed., Oct. 12 to Saturday, Oct. 15th, 2022.

To register, click on the home page here.

Here are just some of the topics that will be covered:

  • How to plan your own retirement at any age
  • How to save money on taxes by optimizing your RRSP to RRIF transition
  • What cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin actually are – and if you should be investing in them
  • How to maximize your Canadian Child Benefit (CCB)
  • How to efficiently transition your investing nest egg to a steady stream of retirement income
  • What Canadian real estate investments looks like in 2022
  • How to deal with inflation on your bills and in your investment portfolio
  • How to avoid crippling fees and terrible advice
  • When to take your OAS and CPP
  • How to buy your own pension – income for life!
  • Why Canadian dividend stocks might be the right fit for you
  • How to use your housing equity to maximize your retirement lifestyle

Here’s what MillionDollarJourney had to say about the conference:

I’m proud to say that MDJ’s own Kyle Prevost is co-hosting the event alongside MDJ writers Kornel Szrejber and Dale Roberts – so I can speak firsthand to the quality of the product!

One thing I always appreciate about this Summit each fall is that it is produced by Canadians – for Canadians.  Too much of the money-related content we see is American-based in nature – but you won’t have to translate any talk about 401Ks or American private health insurance at this event!

Together, the roster of All Star Speakers have authored more than 100 personal finance books, hosted 1,000+ podcast episodes, written 20,000+ blog posts and newspaper columns, and have been featured in thousands of media articles and interviews from every news and financial publication in Canada.  

Needless to say – you will not find this elite group in one place anywhere else!

And it’s free!

Here’s a sampling of the event’s FAQ:

Is the Canadian Financial Summit really free?

Yes. The videos are completely free to view for 48 hours. After that you need the any-time, anywhere All Access Pass.

What’s the catch?

There. Is. No. Catch.  We believe you’ll think the information presented by our 35+ Canadian experts is so solid, so actionable, so lacking in fluff and sales jargon – that we think you’ll pay for it after already seeing it for free.

How do I watch The Summit?
Simply click here to claim your free ticket. You should immediately get an email confirming your registration – just follow the directions in that email and you will get a link sent to you 24 hours before The Summit goes live. You can view The Summit on any phone, tablet, or computer.
I signed up for the 2017,2018, 2019, and 2020 All Access passes, but am not sure how to access those membership pages.

Click here, and simply fill in your info.  You will be be taken to a page that allows you access the 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 content. If you have forgot your Canadian Financial Summit password, simply click here to re-set it.

A sampling of the sessions

Rob Carrick

Where is Housing Headed?

In a drastic change from past years, we’re seeing some major pull backs in the Canadian housing market. Join Rob and I as we break down how this is affecting Canadians’ net worth, who is getting hit the hardest, and where we go from here. We also discuss if renting is still an option that we’re recommending and what we think could happen in regards to the long-term trends of immigration and housing stock within Canada now that the pandemic is in the rearview mirror.

Ellen Roseman

Addressing Canadians’ Inflating Sense of Worry

Longtime Canadian consumer advocate Ellen Roseman is back and wants to help Canadians weather the recent storm of inflation and rising costs of living.  Her personal experience with Canada’s last bout of quickly rising prices have given her some hard-won wisdom in practical ways to deal with modern inflation issues.  We talk about what to pay attention to, watch out for, and some top tips in this high-price environment.  We wrap by speculating on what all of this will mean for Canadians’ investment portfolios. Continue Reading…