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Since we last polled financial experts and business owners about the prospects for investing throughout 2026, the surprise war in Iran late in February has decidedly upset the apple cart.
These experts were gathered with the assistance of Featured.com, which has been supplying Findependence Hub with quality content for several years. It has changed its procedure so editors like myself can request input on particular topics we think will interest our readership. The sources are all on LinkedIn, as you can see by clicking on their profiles below.
Here’s how we posed the question about how retired or almost-retired clients might approach their portfolios in light of the Iran conflict:
What defensive strategies do you suggest for retirement-age clients concerned that the Iran war will drag on long enough to impact their nest eggs? Defensive ETFs, gold, utilities or what? Any major shift in Asset Allocation?
Below are the 14 responses that caught my attention, but so many were coming in that I wanted to publish this blog before events overtook the observations and recommendations. I am also doing a followup Retired Money column for MoneySense.ca that will likely run in the next week, which focuses more on Canadian input from domestic experts. This site will run a “throw” to that column once it appears.
The events of the past weekend (March 21 – March 22nd) are typical of the chaos and uncertainty that abound under a rogue American president. Typically, the weekend began with a threat to bomb Iran’s power plants if they didn’t re-open the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours.
That likely ruined the weekend for many investors but also typical, just hours before U.S. markets opened Monday, Trump provided a 5-day reprieve, causing stocks to surge and oil to fall back to more acceptable prices. As this was everywhere online and in broadcast media yesterday, and will be the main topic in Tuesday’s papers, I won’t recap further, beyond this observation:
This is of course another instance of the so-called TACO Trade: for Trump Always Chickens Out. Unless of course the next time he doesn’t.
So on with our perspective from U.S. business owners and financial experts, keeping in mind that these were submitted before this weekend.
“Protect purchasing power and smooth volatility while still allowing the portfolio to grow over time.”
For retirement age clients worried that a prolonged conflict could affect markets, most advisors focus less on drastic changes and more on defensive diversification and income stability. The goal is protecting capital and reducing volatility rather than chasing returns.
Here are a few commonly recommended strategies:
1. Increase exposure to defensive sectors
Sectors that provide essential services tend to hold up better during geopolitical or economic stress. These include utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples because people still need electricity, medicine, and basic goods regardless of the economy. ETFs tracking these sectors are often used as defensive holdings since they tend to have lower volatility and consistent dividends.
2. Add a modest allocation to gold
Gold has historically acted as a “safe haven” during geopolitical crises and financial instability. Many retirement portfolio strategies suggest holding around 5 per cent to 15 per cent in gold or gold ETFs as a hedge against market stress, inflation, or currency risk.
3. Maintain or increase high-quality bonds
Government bonds and investment grade bonds often act as a buffer when equities become volatile. Defensive retirement strategies typically include high quality bonds and dividend paying assets to stabilize portfolio income and reduce drawdowns.
4. Use defensive ETFs rather than individual stocks
Broad ETFs that track utilities, healthcare, real estate, and gold are often used to diversify risk. For example, defensive portfolios sometimes include sector ETFs tied to utilities or healthcare alongside treasury and gold exposure to hedge against market shocks.
5. Avoid major asset allocation shifts driven by headlines
Even during geopolitical tension, most advisors caution against dramatic portfolio changes. The focus is usually on gradual rebalancing, ensuring the portfolio is aligned with the investor’s risk tolerance and time horizon rather than reacting to short term events.
Bottom line: For retirees concerned about geopolitical risk, the typical approach is not a complete overhaul but a defensive tilt:
Maintain diversified equity exposure
Add defensive sectors
Keep a strong bond allocation
Consider a modest gold position
Focus on income-producing assets
This kind of structure helps protect purchasing power and smooth volatility while still allowing the portfolio to grow over time. — Omer Malik, CEO, ORM Systems
“Avoid Knee-jerk Liquidation.”
As an attorney who has guided clients through Desert Storm, 9/11, and the Great Recession, I move immediately to suppress the urge to panic. War is tragic for humanity, but historically, the stock market treats it as a temporary injunction rather than a permanent dismissal. The worst financial crime you can commit right now is a “knee-jerk liquidation.”
Selling your entire portfolio because of a headline is how you turn a temporary paper loss into a permanent reduction in your standard of living. History shows that while markets jitter at the sound of cannons, they often rally once the uncertainty resolves. Therefore, we do not make major shifts in Asset Allocation based on fear; we make minor tactical adjustments based on risk management.
For defensive strategies, I advise a pivot toward the “Boring Sector.” This means Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP). Regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz, people still need to turn on the lights, brush their teeth, and wash their clothes. These sectors are the “tenured professors” of the market: they aren’t exciting, but they have reliable cash flow and pay dividends that can cushion the blow of a downturn. They act as a legal defense against volatility.
Regarding Gold, view it not as an investment, but as a “geo-political insurance policy.” Allocating 5% to 10% to a gold ETF (like GLD) or physical bullion is prudent. It creates a “hedge” because gold often moves inversely to the dollar and panic. However, do not go “all in.” Gold generates no cash flow; it just sits there looking pretty. It is the airbag, not the engine.
Finally, consider the specific nature of this conflict: Energy. Iran is a major energy player. If the conflict drags on, oil prices will likely spike. Holding a diversified Energy ETF (XLE) acts as a natural hedge for your personal budget. If you are paying more at the gas pump, you might as well be earning dividends from the oil companies to offset the pain. Combine this with short-term US Treasuries (SGOV or SHV), which are currently paying around 5% risk-free. This is your “dry powder.” It keeps your capital safe and liquid, allowing you to sleep at night while the world argues. The verdict? Stay diversified, embrace the boring, and turn off the news. — Lyle Solomon, Principal Attorney, Oak View Law Group
Secure Retirement Income, Preserve Short-term Assets
If you are worried a prolonged Iran war could affect your nest egg, I recommend focusing on securing retirement income and preserving short-term assets rather than chasing tactical bets like gold or sector ETFs.
Use a bucket approach to hold stable, low-volatility assets to cover several years of withdrawals while keeping a growth allocation for longer-term needs. Shift the portion of your portfolio needed soon toward preservation and lower volatility investments as you enter retirement.
Strengthen diversified income sources such as Social Security, pensions, and annuity income to reduce sequence-of-return risk. Pay attention to asset location so taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts are positioned to minimize taxes when you withdraw.
Finally, adopt a flexible withdrawal plan with guardrails so spending can be adjusted if markets or geopolitics worsen, instead of making a major permanent allocation shift based on one event. — Clint Haynes, Financial Planner, NextGen Wealth
Put Capital Preservation over Aggressive Growth
For retirement-age investors, the current conflict in Iran highlights the importance of capital preservation over aggressive growth. A prudent approach involves making modest, 5-20% tactical shifts into defensive assets like gold and short-term Treasuries, which provide a necessary hedge against geopolitical spikes and energy-driven inflation.
By prioritizing liquidity and stability now, retirees can cushion their nest eggs against immediate market shocks without abandoning their long-term recovery potential.
On the equity side, focusing on “all-weather” sectors like Utilities, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples offers a way to maintain steady dividend income even during broader market downturns. While small, satellite positions in energy or defense ETFs can offset rising oil prices, the key is to avoid emotional overreactions to the headlines. Maintaining a diversified, high-quality portfolio ensures that your capital remains protected while you stay positioned to benefit when markets eventually normalize. — James Sahagian, Certified Financial Planner, Ramapo Wealth Advisors
Seek Robust diversification across asset classes and sectors
For retirement-age clients worried that a prolonged geopolitical conflict like the Iran war might impact their nest eggs, a defensive posture typically emphasises diversification and capital preservation over aggressive growth. One core idea is to balance a portfolio so that it can withstand volatility without forcing major asset reallocations in response to headlines. Robust diversification across asset classes and sectors remains a foundational strategy for resilience during geopolitical stress.
1. Safe-haven assets
Many investors look to traditional safe havens such as gold or gold-linked ETFs (e.g., IAU or GLD) because gold has historically served as a store of value and tends to have low correlation with equities during times of uncertainty. Allocating a modest percentage of a portfolio to gold or precious metals can act as an insurance policy against market drawdowns and inflationary pressures that often accompany geopolitical risk.
2. Fixed-income and cash equivalents
Holding high-quality bonds, short-duration Treasuries, or cash/money-market funds can preserve capital and provide liquidity, which is especially important for retirees who may need to draw income over time without selling equities at depressed prices. Treasury securities, particularly short-term ones, can serve as defensive assets when stock markets are volatile.
3. Defensive sectors and ETFs
Allocations to utility, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors — typically included in defensive ETFs — can provide relative stability because these industries supply essential goods and services regardless of economic cycles. These stocks often exhibit lower volatility than growth or cyclical sectors during stress periods.
4. Core & satellite approach
Rather than making a sweeping shift, many advisers recommend a “core-and-satellite” strategy where the core of a retirement portfolio remains broadly diversified in quality equities and bonds for long-term growth, while the satellite portion can include tactical defensive positions like precious metals or short-term fixed income to manage near-term risk. This allows retirees to maintain growth potential while tempering volatility. — Daria Turanska, Legal Manager, FasterDraft
Move from Sector Rotation to Structural Resilience
My perspective: Moving from Sector Rotation to Structural Resilience
From an institutional research perspective, navigating protracted geopolitical conflicts requires a fundamental shift in how we define a “defensive” strategy. For high-net-worth investors managing retirement portfolios exceeding $500,000, simply rotating out of tech and into utility ETFs or defensive equities often leaves the portfolio exposed to broader, systemic market shocks tied to global supply chain disruptions.
The Institutional Approach:
When analyzing how large-scale custody accounts prepare for sustained geopolitical volatility, the focus shifts from standard paper asset allocation to structural preservation: specifically, integrating non-correlated, tangible liquidity.
Historical data from protracted conflicts indicates that institutional capital heavily prioritizes sovereign wealth strategies, primarily through IRS-compliant physical precious metals. In a self-directed IRA or 401(k) rollover, physical gold doesn’t just act as a hedge; it serves as a structural firewall. It operates outside the traditional banking system and is immune to the counterparty risks that affect even the most “defensive” equities during wartime.
Rather than trying to time the market with sector-specific ETFs, our research framework suggests that true defensive posturing requires verifying liquidity and securing a baseline allocation in physical, universally recognized assets governed by transparent custodial fee structures. — Steve Maitland, Founder & Independent Research Analyst, Maitland Wealth
Flexible Deferred Annuities for Defensive Income Building
For retirement-age clients worried that a prolonged Iran conflict could harm their nest eggs, I suggest considering a Flexible Deferred Annuity as a defensive, income-building option. Many financial institutions offer variations with a chosen performance cap rate and segment buffers, plus timelines tied to segment types such as the S&P or Russell 2000 with defined ceiling and floor features.
Those elements can minimize the percentage risk for a loss in down years while limiting upside in stronger years, which can help stabilize near-term retirement income. This approach is not right for every investor, so review it with your financial advisor to see if it fits your timeline and income needs. — Ashley Kenny, Co-Founder, Heirloom Video Books
Reduce volatile individual Growth Names but maintain Diversified Index Funds
For older retirement-age clients who are concerned about over-extended geopolitical conflict, I propose a more cautiously defensive posture than drastic portfolio changes.
Allocate 5-10% to precious metals ETFs like GLD or IAU as hedge, and increase exposure on defensive sectors via utility ETF (XLU) which usually provide stable dividends during volatile periods. Consumer staples and healthcare exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can also provide stability as those sectors are needed no matter what wars are going on in the world.
Instead of drastic asset allocation changes that jolt long-term retirement strategies, slowly pare off holdings in more volatile growth names while keeping a kernel investment in diversified index funds: this way, you protect your retirement timeline and give yourself some wiggle room from a market that is near term-fuzzy at best. — Scott Brown, Founder, MintWit
Minimum-Volatility ETFs and Gold
Gold and Minimum Volatility ETFs are my recommendations for anchoring your portfolio. As you move towards a defensive position with Utilities and high-quality Bonds, increasing the income component of your portfolio will help provide some stability. I recommend moving to a 60/40 split in your portfolio that is more conservative than it was at the beginning of the year; and will prioritize preserving capital until this regional conflict has pressured the global energy and market situation enough that it is time to begin the transition back to a more aggressive portfolio mix. — Zack Moorin, Founder, Zack Buys Houses
Rebalance toward defense, yes. Blow up your entire strategy? No.
The instinct to go fully defensive right now is understandable, but overcorrecting is its own risk. For someone at or near retirement, the first move isn’t picking the right defensive ETF. It’s making sure your allocation already reflects the fact that you can’t afford a 30% drawdown with no time to recover. If it doesn’t, that’s the real problem, and it existed before Iran was in the headlines.
That said, here’s what actually makes sense as a defensive posture.
Gold has earned its place as a chaos hedge. A 5 to 10% allocation through something like GLD or IAU gives you exposure without the hassle of physical storage. It tends to do exactly what you want when everything else is falling apart.
Utilities and consumer staples ETFs (XLU, XLP) are boring on purpose. People still pay their electric bill and buy toothpaste during a war. These sectors hold up because demand doesn’t disappear.
Short term Treasuries or Treasury ETFs (SHV, BIL) are about as defensive as it gets. You’re basically parking money at near zero risk while collecting yield.
I’d also look at fixed annuities for a portion of the portfolio: contractually guaranteed income that doesn’t move with the market. For retirement-age clients, knowing a baseline of income is locked in regardless of geopolitics provides real peace of mind.
What I’d avoid is a major shift in asset allocation based on one conflict. Wars create volatility, but panic selling at the bottom has destroyed more retirement accounts than any geopolitical event. Rebalance toward defense, yes. Blow up your entire strategy? No.
The best move is having 12 to 18 months of living expenses in cash or near cash so you never have to sell equities at the worst possible time. — Josh Wahls, Founder, InsuranceByHeroes.com
Make sure existing Allocation is suitably Defensive and Liquid
What defensive strategies should retirement age clients consider if geopolitical conflict creates prolonged market uncertainty?
For retirement-age investors the priority should be maintaining stability rather than reacting aggressively to headlines. A balanced portfolio that includes income-producing assets such as high-quality dividend equities, stable fixed-income instruments, and defensive sectors like utilities or consumer staples can help smooth market volatility.
Many investors also maintain a modest allocation to assets that historically behave differently from equities, including gold or similar stores of value. The objective is not predicting geopolitical outcomes but ensuring the portfolio has multiple sources of resilience.
Should investors consider major asset allocation changes during periods of geopolitical conflict? Large allocation shifts late in the investment cycle can introduce more risk than they remove. Retirement portfolios are generally designed to withstand periods of uncertainty through diversification and income producing holdings.
A more prudent approach is reviewing whether the existing allocation already includes defensive characteristics and sufficient liquidity. When those foundations are in place, investors often benefit more from discipline and consistency than from rapid repositioning in response to global events. — Christopher Ledwidge, Co-Founder & Executive Vice President of Retail Lending, theLender.com
Remain diversified enough to absorb uncertainty
What defensive strategies should retirement age clients consider if geopolitical conflict creates prolonged market uncertainty?
For retirement age investors, the central principle is preserving stability rather than chasing reactionary shifts. Periods of geopolitical tension often introduce short term volatility, yet retirement portfolios should be structured to withstand those cycles. A balanced allocation that includes high-quality dividend-producing equities, investment grade fixed income, and modest exposure to defensive sectors such as utilities or consumer staples can help smooth fluctuations. Many investors also maintain a limited allocation to assets that historically respond differently to market stress, such as gold. The goal is not predicting the event itself but ensuring that the portfolio remains diversified enough to absorb uncertainty.
Should investors consider major asset allocation changes during geopolitical conflict?
Large structural shifts are rarely advisable for retirement investors because they can introduce timing risk. A more disciplined approach is to review whether the portfolio already includes defensive characteristics such as income-producing assets, diversified sectors, and a stable allocation to fixed income. When those foundations are in place, geopolitical events tend to have less influence on long term outcomes. Investors often benefit more from maintaining diversification and liquidity than from attempting to reposition aggressively during uncertain moments. — Dennis Shirshikov, Head of Growth and Engineering, Growthlimit.com
“This is more of a rebalance-and-defend moment than a reason to overhaul the portfolio”
For retirement-age clients, I would be careful about making major portfolio changes based only on war headlines. The conflict can absolutely affect markets through oil, inflation concerns, and short-term volatility, but that does not always mean a full asset-allocation shift is the right move.
A more practical response is usually to tighten the portfolio rather than rebuild it. That can mean leaning a bit more toward high-quality bonds or Treasuries, keeping diversification strong, and making sure there is not too much exposure to the most economically sensitive areas.
Gold and utilities can still have a place, but I would not treat them as the whole solution. For most retirees, this is more of a rebalance-and-defend moment than a reason to overhaul the portfolio. — THERY Jean Christophe, CEO, MUSAARTGALLERY
“Don’t over-rotate into a single ‘safe’ bet that can whipsaw when the narrative changes.”
I’m a FINRA-licensed investment banker (Series 7/63/79) and I spend my days watching how PE underwrites “risk” in real cash-flow businesses (HVAC/plumbing/electrical/pest/fire safety). The big lesson: in drawn-out geopolitical stress, price volatility hurts, but forced decisions (selling at the wrong time, taking bad terms) hurts more: so I defend retirement-age clients by tightening the plan, not chasing the headline.
My defensive move is a barbell: keep quality equity exposure, but pair it with explicit “shock absorbers” that don’t pretend to predict the war. Concrete picks: GLD as an insurance sleeve for energy/war risk and XLU (utilities) for the boring-cashflow tilt; I size them small enough that they help in stress but don’t hijack the whole portfolio.
I do make one “major” allocation shift for retirement-age folks: reduce anything that’s structurally fragile in a long war — high-leverage, long-duration sensitivity, and story stocks — and replace part of it with short-duration high-quality credit via VCSH. In essential services M&A, buyers consistently pay up for predictable, recurring cash flow; that same principle is why I’d rather own boring balance sheets than long-duration promises when uncertainty drags.
One case-study lens from my world: when markets get tighter, buyers become “ruthlessly selective” and multiples compress unless cash flow is clean and transferable: same thing happens in portfolios.
So the defensive strategy is: own things that still work if conditions stay ugly (cash-flow equities + utilities + a measured gold hedge + short-duration credit), and don’t over-rotate into a single “safe” bet that can whipsaw when the narrative changes. — Oliver Bogner, Managing Partner, The Advisory Investment Bank
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