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Examine The Theories That Forecasters Rely On To Predict Market Swings — And Learn Their Flaws
The universe is constructed in such a way that nothing is certain. You can always come up with perfectly rational reasons why something won’t work. But people find ways to overcome obstacles, and some businesses succeed despite risks.
Is now a good time to buy stocks? Below are a couple of factors to consider.
Is now a good time to buy stocks? Understand pendulum theory and you will understand the past
You could sum up the investment version of the pendulum theory like this: stock prices alternate between periods of overvaluation and undervaluation; the degree and duration of each period of overvaluation is related to the degree and duration of the subsequent period of undervaluation, and vice versa.
In other words, pendulum theory says that when stocks head downward after a period of overvaluation, they won’t stop at fair value. Instead, they’ll keep dropping until they hit lows that are in some sense as out-of-whack as previous highs, or close to it.
Pendulum theory is a handy way to label the past, and it gives you a sense of how stock prices behave. But it’s useless at predicting the future or timing the market. That’s why pendulum theory generally plays a small part in successful investing. If you qualify as a “successful investor,” you probably recognize that the market never gets so high that it can’t go higher, nor so low that it can’t drop some more. This is a key part of understanding the stock market.
Is now a good time to buy stocks? Consider this valuable concept to gain another perspective
Here’s one of the most valuable things you should recognize as an investor: “A rising market climbs a wall of worry.” In other words, you need to recognize that a stock market’s rise automatically generates negative comments. The higher and/or longer the market rises, the more negative comments it generates. These are the bricks in that wall of worry.
The inevitable building of this wall grows out of human nature. Many people are instinctively cautious or conservative. When they see a stock or the stock market go on a rise, they look for reasons why the rise may falter or reverse. That’s especially true of stock market commentators. When a stock or the market rises beyond their expectations, they dig deep for hidden flaws.
This spurs them to come up with comments that at times seem deliberately slanted to promote a negative view. You might call them “misleading indicators.” Here’s an example:
“The market had the biggest drop in a day (or week, or month),” or “the longest string of falling days, since … [a date chosen to maximize shock value].” When these kinds of comparisons began appearing in the news this year, after a long dry spell, some investors took it as ominous news. They assumed it meant the market was at risk of greater declines. It means nothing of the kind.
Sometimes, of course, the market puts on big one-day declines near the start of a long-term price decline. It has also done so near the end of such declines and at various points in the middle. The same goes for big one-week and one-month declines and for long strings of down days.
Every year, the market will hit a series of “new highs for the year,” or a series of “new lows for the year.” In many years, it will hit some of each.
When you adopt “A rising market climbs a wall of worry” as a mindset, it will help you maintain your perspective. You’ll start to recognize that milestones like these are trivia, passed off as meaningful statistics. The investment news is full of them. You may find they make interesting reading or listening, but they also burn up valuable time. You’ll earn a far greater return on that time if you devote it to learning and comparing facts about the companies you invest in.
Stop worrying too much about the big picture
If you constantly worry about the “big picture,” including trying to pick market tops, you may at times manage to sell at just the right moment to sidestep a serious downturn. But you may only do that after sitting through a series of downturns. The downturn you avoid may turn out to be the last in a series—the “final leg downward,” as short-term traders like to refer to it.
The next big move in the market may be upward. You need to get back in the market or you’ll miss out. Wait too long and you could wind up paying more than prices you got when you sold.
Note, however, that the stocks that make up the market don’t go up and down like a bunch of people in an elevator. They are more like commuters in a city. Most go the same way every morning and evening, with the traffic. But lots of others go against the traffic, if only sporadically.
Use our three-part Successful Investor approach to make better investment decisions
- Hold mostly high-quality, dividend-paying stocks.
- Spread your money out across most if not all of the five main economic sectors: Manufacturing & Industry, Resources & Commodities, Consumer, Finance and Utilities.
- Downplay or stay out of stocks in the broker/media limelight.
How do you deal with the many investing perspectives from pundits?
What steps do you take to look past the soundbites and learn the truth about the direction of the market, and especially the stocks in your portfolio?
Pat McKeough has been one of Canada’s most respected investment advisors for over three decades. He is the founder and senior editor of TSI Network and the founder of Successful Investor Wealth Management. He is also the author of several acclaimed investment books. This article was originally published on July 24, 2019 and is republished on the Hub with permission.
